SS market

[KeithStone53151]

I'd probably just pass on Russell. There may still be something there but I don't think he's a huge upgrade at this point. Throw in the baggage (yes, I, too, will let everyone know that I am boldly against domestic abuse on here) and it probably isn't worth sending anything of value for Russell. I honestly didn't understand why the Cubs jumped through so many hoops to give him more chances. It feels dirty, but if he was a really could player you could somewhat understand it but Russell's offense has fizzled and his defense is good but I can go get his production elsewhere.

 

I think everyone is against abusing women, except for a very small minority of people that do it. But I tend to agree, I just don't think he's that good. This isn't like a Roberto Osuna situation where the guy is actually a stud, and you can get away with making an announcement denouncing his actions but use the player(and probably behind the scenes be sure to straighten him out). Russell might be mildly more valuable than Arcia at most, but not enough of an upgrade to be worth anything. And again, I would never ever trade with the cubs on principle.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I'm not against getting Story. I'm against selling a bunch of our top 10 prospects to get a guy who isn't an 800 OPS guy outside of Coors field, and is probably a 3 WAR guy if he's not a Rockie. I dont want to sell the farm for a guy who's value is inflated because he's a Rockie.

[Devinep]

Greg Garcia would be a nice utility upgrade and a nice leadoff option with his 350+OBP

[PaulLeoMolitor]

How about just giving Dubon a chance?

[HarveysWBs]

How about just giving Dubon a chance?

 

Yeah, my thoughts exactly. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect him to hit at Arcia/Saladino levels right now, and getting him acclimated to the bigs now could pay dividends in future years. Seems to make sense for the short and long term. If he isn’t dealt, I’d be surprised if he isn’t up again in August.

[pacopete4]

I hope the Brewers tell Arcia the job is yours for the remainder of the season and give Arcia a shot of confidence. Then if nothing gets better and they want to address the position, do it in the off season.

[brewmann04]

I agree roll with Arcia

[pacopete4]

Does Jonathan Villar make sense for the crew if they do want another option? Having a very nice season for Baltimore and plays 2B/SS. [sarcasm]As great as Slamadino is[/sarcasm] I think Villar would be a better player.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Does Jonathan Villar make sense for the crew if they do want another option? Having a very nice season for Baltimore and plays 2B/SS. [sarcasm]As great as Slamadino is[/sarcasm] I think Villar would be a better player.

 

No. Please God, no.

[Lathund]

SS is the biggest opportunity to improve on the position player side, and to do so without having to DFA a player you'd ideally like to keep since Arcia (and Saladino for that matter) has options. Arcia, Saladino and Perez have combined for -0.8 fWAR (And yeah, that includes time at other positions as well for Perez/Saladino). Even a slightly below-average SS could improve on that by at least a win.

 

Looking at players with 1000+ PAs since Arcia entered the league in 2016 (He has 1502 PAs), his 71 wRC+ is the 6th worst behind Hamilton, Escobar, Echevarria, Owings, Hedges. His 0.3 fWAR is 9th worst. It's also not a case of an early struggle bringing his later numbers down, he has a 68 wRC+ this year. Over the last two months it's at 40, so not a positive in-season trend either. He is doing some things differently this year though, swinging less often at pitches, especially outside the zone, but it isn't paying off yet. His BABIP is down which could explain it, but at the same time Statcast doesn't think he's being unlucky, giving him only a .216 xBA, close to last years .214 or his career .229. And the eye test isn't pretty, he flails at the plate still, not a balanced fundamentally sound swing there. I wouldn't put much weight on the upcoming point, since I've heard it said he is a hard worker and great clubhouse presence etc., but the frequent slamming of bats and helmets after making outs isn't what I'd think makes for the best way towards a consistent approach.

 

As far as defense goes, defensive metrics don't like him. And at this sample size, defensive metrics do matter. The issue with them isn't that they're not accurately measuring defense, they operate by assigning credit for plays made and penalties for plays not made, which is basically what defense is. The issue is instead that even over relatively long periods of time, the amount of balls hit towards a player that he can make a play on, and the quality of the hits and speed of runner, defensive alignment and base-out states etc. can vary quite a lot. But Arcia is at around 2.5 full seasons worth of data over 4 different seasons, which is comparable in accuracy to roughly a full seasons worth of a stat like OPS+/wRC+, so it does tell us a fair bit. The defensive metrics handles things like shifts (Or rather batted balls where several different positions make plays) differently, yet he's not elite or even good by any of them. Baserunning isn't an asset either, he's not very fast and not a very good baserunner, just about average overall by the baserunning metrics at FG, B-ref and Bpro.

 

The three main WAR frameworks (fWAR, rWAR/bWAR, WARP) do disagree slightly about Arcia; but their overall assesment (Treating his 1500 PAs as the equivalent of just over two full season) ranges between replacement level (0.3 fWAR), bench player (2.3 rWAR) and an average starter (4.3 WARP). So it depends a bit on what metric you trust most, but looking at them overall it's not a very rosy picture. And nearly all the value comes from 2017 in all three cases.

 

If it was a matter of having to give up on Arcia (i.e no options and no roster space), I would understand the reluctance to make a move at the deadline, as he is still young and will have 3 years of team control remaining after this year, but that's not an issue here since he does have options. But, the real problem here is the SS market. Most options I can think of have been mentioned. There are guys like Santana who is having a career year and will be expensive due to several years of control. There's someone like Galvis who is an upgrade, but not a major one at all. A guy like Forsythe who is more of a utility man with limited SS experience and who has cooled off the since suggestions was made.

 

The top 10 teams by fWAR from SS this year are 9 playoff contenders and the Padres who obviously aren't selling there. Several selling teams have guys at SS they probably want for when they're in contention (Mondesi, Tim Anderson, maybe Goodrum?). Others have guys that wouldn't be any real upgrade. Someone like Elvis Andrus is on a big contract and mainly a defense first option. Maybe J.P Crawford, but he's probably not moving.

 

TL;DR SS is definitely in need of an upgrade and should be a priority. Problem is there's not a lot out there...

[Devinep]

How about just giving Dubon a chance?

Could do that as well as upgrading the utility spot with a guy like Garcia too

[Brewcrewin07]

Package deal...Robby Ray and Nick Ahmed...I'd love it.

 

Jon Heyman

@JonHeyman

·

3m

D-Backs, who just fell below .500, could have great sale. Ray, Dyson, Ahmed, Peralta, Chafin, Bradley, Jones are among candidates to go. Greinke’s drawn some interest, but with wisely selected 15-team no-trade list, it’s said to be up to him, “for the most part.”

[KeithStone53151]

Package deal...Robby Ray and Nick Ahmed...I'd love it.

 

Jon Heyman

@JonHeyman

·

3m

D-Backs, who just fell below .500, could have great sale. Ray, Dyson, Ahmed, Peralta, Chafin, Bradley, Jones are among candidates to go. Greinke’s drawn some interest, but with wisely selected 15-team no-trade list, it’s said to be up to him, “for the most part.”

 

I wonder if in said deal, we could send over arcia+. I agree i love the idea of getting both.

[Brewcrewin07]

Package deal...Robby Ray and Nick Ahmed...I'd love it.

 

Jon Heyman

@JonHeyman

·

3m

D-Backs, who just fell below .500, could have great sale. Ray, Dyson, Ahmed, Peralta, Chafin, Bradley, Jones are among candidates to go. Greinke’s drawn some interest, but with wisely selected 15-team no-trade list, it’s said to be up to him, “for the most part.”

 

I wonder if in said deal, we could send over arcia+. I agree i love the idea of getting both.

 

I absolutely think you could send over Arcia..Honestly, this one makes almost too much sense...for both sides.

[Madhawk23]

Package deal...Robby Ray and Nick Ahmed...I'd love it.

 

Jon Heyman

@JonHeyman

·

3m

D-Backs, who just fell below .500, could have great sale. Ray, Dyson, Ahmed, Peralta, Chafin, Bradley, Jones are among candidates to go. Greinke’s drawn some interest, but with wisely selected 15-team no-trade list, it’s said to be up to him, “for the most part.”

 

I wonder if in said deal, we could send over arcia+. I agree i love the idea of getting both.

 

I absolutely think you could send over Arcia..Honestly, this one makes almost too much sense...for both sides.

 

OK, so who says "no" to this type of a deal?

 

Brewers get: Ahmed and Ray

Dbacks get: Arcia, Burnes & Ashby

 

We'd have Ahmed and Ray to help this year and next year, and the Dbacks get a couple of guys who they can literally plug right into their MLB roster with Arcia and Burnes - and a good looking prospect in Ashby who is a couple of years away. Would we have to throw in more to get a deal like this done?

[KeithStone53151]

 

OK, so who says "no" to this type of a deal?

 

Brewers get: Ahmed and Ray

Dbacks get: Arcia, Burnes & Ashby

 

We'd have Ahmed and Ray to help this year and next year, and the Dbacks get a couple of guys who they can literally plug right into their MLB roster with Arcia and Burnes - and a good looking prospect in Ashby who is a couple of years away. Would we have to throw in more to get a deal like this done?

 

I think that's a little too much for the brewers. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but team control would make arcia more valuable than ahmed. Ahmed is currently better, but arcia still has a lot of upside in his bat. Adding burnes just seems crazy. I think if you switch burnes with brown or supak it makes more sense.

[tmwiese55]

I just looked Ahmed's stats closely for the first time and I was disappointed. I knew he'd been doing OK this year but looking at he looks very similar to Arcia as a hitter, but having a good year this year for the first time. Probably shouldn't put toooo much value on him as prior to this he's been hitting just like Arcia really. Is a higher end defender though from what I see. So overall yes sure he's better than Arcia at this moment but probably don't want to go overboard as its the first time he's hit at an acceptable level.