Mike Minor

[Brewcrewin07]

Jon Morosi

@jonmorosi

25m

 

 

Sources: Mike Minor is increasingly likely to be traded in the next two weeks, as I reported a short time ago on @MLBNetwork. The #Brewers and #Phillies are among the interested teams, although there’s no indication that a deal is close. @MLB

[Warning Track Power]

I know Minor has been very good in Texas, especially this season, but I worry a trade for him may not move the needle enough. If the Brewers could acquire Minor AND Robbie Ray/Madison Bumgarner/Zack Greinke/Zack Wheeler, then I would feel much better about their October chances.

[IntentionalHBP]

Brewers were close to acquiring Minor in the offseason. Boy that would have been a steal.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I wonder where he would fit on the Brewers? He's had very effective stretches as both a starter and reliever.

 

I guess one could view it as a case of "you can never have enough solid pitchers" regardless of where he's used.

[Brew crew 92]

I’ve read the Rangers want a top 50 & top 100 & another. If that’s accurate, No Thanks.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I’ve read the Rangers want a top 50 & top 100 & another. If that’s accurate, No Thanks.

 

I'm sure they do want that. Wanting something and actually receiving is not necessarily a given.

[brewmann04]

Yes you always ask for the moon but don't always get it.

[mlloyd10]

Minor's numbers are way better than what he actually is.

 

Sure his 2.73 ERA looks good, but he has a 3.82 FIP and 4.42 xFip -

[Brewcrewin07]

I know Minor has been very good in Texas, especially this season, but I worry a trade for him may not move the needle enough. If the Brewers could acquire Minor AND Robbie Ray/Madison Bumgarner/Zack Greinke/Zack Wheeler, then I would feel much better about their October chances.

 

This right here, Minor would be fine, as long as it's in addition to a bigger fish. Minor by himself...meh.

[KeithStone53151]

Once we get to September, we'll probably go the TrueBlue multi-inning reliever route for a couple rotation spots and any potential playoffs. At this point, Woodruff/Davies/Chacin are locked in, and maybe GG if he looks good. That last spot and maybe GG's spot will probably be a planned piggyback as we'll have plenty of arms available. Anderson/Minor for 3-4 innings each and GG/Houser/Peralta for 3-4 innings each.

 

So if we got Minor, we'd probably make do for a month or whatever and have a better plan in place for September baseball forward. My guess is he would start initially.

[Jopal78]

With all the rumors about the Brewers acquiring starting pitching (good to hear btw), perhaps the unintended consequence is that we've seen the last of Jimmy Nelson as a Brewer. Additions to the rotation slides the existing members of the rotation back a spot, plus any additions to the 'pen itself means that Nelson is probably done as a Brewer as he most assuredly will be non-tendered in the off season.

[Warning Track Power]

With all the rumors about the Brewers acquiring starting pitching (good to hear btw), perhaps the unintended consequence is that we've seen the last of Jimmy Nelson as a Brewer. Additions to the rotation slides the existing members of the rotation back a spot, plus any additions to the 'pen itself means that Nelson is probably done as a Brewer as he most assuredly will be non-tendered in the off season.

And what a sad thing that will be for the historically pitching cursed Milwaukee Brewers. Imagine 2017 Jimmy Nelson at the front of the rotation with 2019 Brandon Woodruff. Why can't we have nice things?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

With all the rumors about the Brewers acquiring starting pitching (good to hear btw), perhaps the unintended consequence is that we've seen the last of Jimmy Nelson as a Brewer. Additions to the rotation slides the existing members of the rotation back a spot, plus any additions to the 'pen itself means that Nelson is probably done as a Brewer as he most assuredly will be non-tendered in the off season.

And what a sad thing that will be for the historically pitching cursed Milwaukee Brewers. Imagine 2017 Jimmy Nelson at the front of the rotation with 2019 Brandon Woodruff. Why can't we have nice things?

 

I think we should let the guy start his rehab assignment and see how he does before we decide he's done. His results at the ML level this year are a pretty small sample, and no one would deny that he showed some flashes. Coming back from a huge injury is tough. I would hate for the Brewers to devote that time and energy into his rehab, only to cut him loose, and have him go to a team like the Cardinals, where he'd probably instantly turn into 2017 Jimmy.

 

If anything, he's another potential pen arm for the stretch run that throws mid 90s with solid breaking stuff. You can do worse, as the Brewers have shown.

[TURBO]

With all the rumors about the Brewers acquiring starting pitching (good to hear btw), perhaps the unintended consequence is that we've seen the last of Jimmy Nelson as a Brewer. Additions to the rotation slides the existing members of the rotation back a spot, plus any additions to the 'pen itself means that Nelson is probably done as a Brewer as he most assuredly will be non-tendered in the off season.

And what a sad thing that will be for the historically pitching cursed Milwaukee Brewers. Imagine 2017 Jimmy Nelson at the front of the rotation with 2019 Brandon Woodruff. Why can't we have nice things?

 

I think we should let the guy start his rehab assignment and see how he does before we decide he's done. His results at the ML level this year are a pretty small sample, and no one would deny that he showed some flashes. Coming back from a huge injury is tough. I would hate for the Brewers to devote that time and energy into his rehab, only to cut him loose, and have him go to a team like the Cardinals, where he'd probably instantly turn into 2017 Jimmy.

 

If anything, he's another potential pen arm for the stretch run that throws mid 90s with solid breaking stuff. You can do worse, as the Brewers have shown.

 

i'm a huge Nelson fan, but I'm done holding out hope. Until I see it with my own eyes that he will be able to add anything, and I mean anything, I am done holding out hope.

 

We can not keep counting him into any future plans until he proves himself again... If something positive does happen in the future, this year or next, that will be a great bonus.

[TURBO]

I'm a huge Nelson fan, but I'm done holding out hope. Until I see it with my own eyes that he will be able to add anything, and I mean anything, I am no longer counting on him, period.

 

We can not keep counting him into any future plans until he proves himself again... If something positive does happen in the future, this year or next, that will be a great bonus.

[brewmann04]

I really think Jimmy could be a big addition to the pen.I still think Jimmy needs more time to return to form.

[SRB]

Minor's numbers are way better than what he actually is.

 

Sure his 2.73 ERA looks good, but he has a 3.82 FIP and 4.42 xFip -

 

Sure, but if he had a 2.73 FIP as well then he would either not be available or would cost Hiura + Turang.

 

I think Minor is a great target because he pitches deep into games, he is left handed, and this season is not just a fluke, he really was this good a few years ago back before he got injured.

[JosephC]

I’ve read the Rangers want a top 50 & top 100 & another. If that’s accurate, No Thanks.

 

That's a bit high IMO, but a back-end top 100 hitter and a back-end top 100 pitcher is not out of the question.

 

2017 bWAR/fWAR = 2.6

2018 bWAR/fWAR = 3.1

2019 bWAR/fWAR (prorated to full season) = 7.5

Three-year average = 4.4

 

if one goes with the LOW number, take the three-year average and apply that to the rest of this season and that would make him good for 1.8 WAR. Then for 2020, take the three-year average and subtract 0.5 due to age which would make him a 3.9 WAR pitcher. Bottom number one comes up with is that he'll be good for 5.7 WAR over the remainder of his contract. I'm sure from the Ranger's perspective, he should be credited with just continuing to do what he's been doing this season, which would make him good for 3.1 WAR over the remainder of this season (instead of the 1.8 I calculated above), so right there could be an 11.7 million dollar difference in surplus value.

 

But going back to the low numbers, 5.7 WAR = 51.3 million in value minus 13.37 million in salary he's due puts his surplus value estimate at +37.93 million. That would be roughly equivalent to Turang plus Lutz plus Supak plus a fringe prospect. Better be willing to go pretty big with Minor, otherwise you are just wasting time.

[Boomer5]

What would a deal like this look like?

[adambr2]

We don't even have a top 50 and top 100 excluding Hiura. Turang would probably qualify as the top 100. I think that's a fairly reasonable ask for Minor controlled through 2020.