Brewers showing interest in Robbie Ray [Old Title, Concept Revisited]

[Madhawk23]

I believe the Diamondbacks to be sellers at the deadline, their GM has to know they have too many weaknesses in their pitching to get to the wild card. With that said:

 

Trade for Zack Greinke AND Robbie Ray.

 

Greinke & Ray > Turang & Lutz & Ashby & Lemons

 

I convince my owner that the time to win is now.The best window we have to win a title is 2019/2020. I tell my owner that I’m going to have to trade Yelich and Hader after 2020 for maximum prospect return. I also tell my owner I can trade Woodruff and a couple others and completely re-tool in 1-2 years, and saving 100 million in payroll. After watching Greinke toy with us last night, is there anyone that out there that doesn’t see him starting game 1 vs whoever’s game 1 starter and us NOT having the advantage? Ray is as a good #3 as there is in baseball, this gives us the advantage vs all teams in the playoffs, except 2 teams, and those teams at worst it would be a wash. With this move, it won’t be hard to add a dominant pen arm, making our pen as good as any in the NL.

 

Then next year I have my rotation:

 

Greinke Woodruff Ray Davies Burnes/Houser/Supak/Peralta

 

Easily the best rotation in brewer history, one of the best in baseball, and certainly good enough to potentially beat the dodgers this year or next.

 

Certainly an interesting idea, and I love the aggressiveness of this trade proposal. But, just a couple of important comments/questions:

 

Are we asking the Dbacks to eat any of that remaining 70+M owed to Greinke for the '20 and '21 seasons? Or, are we just asking Mark A. to somehow fit that into our already crunched budget for the next two years? And, that doesn't even include the 8-9M that we would also now have to pay Robbie Ray in 2020.

 

Also, for two top level rotation arms like this - I'm guessing it would take more than just Turang, Lutz, Ashby and Lemons to land them. I would imagine we'd have to start with either Freddy/Burnes, then Turang, Grisham, Rasmussen and Ashby. Would take an absolute haul to get these two guys - unless if we are eating all of ZG's salary the next two years, and even then it would still probably take a haul.

[Brew crew 92]

I believe the Diamondbacks to be sellers at the deadline, their GM has to know they have too many weaknesses in their pitching to get to the wild card. With that said:

 

Trade for Zack Greinke AND Robbie Ray.

 

Greinke & Ray > Turang & Lutz & Ashby & Lemons

 

I convince my owner that the time to win is now.The best window we have to win a title is 2019/2020. I tell my owner that I’m going to have to trade Yelich and Hader after 2020 for maximum prospect return. I also tell my owner I can trade Woodruff and a couple others and completely re-tool in 1-2 years, and saving 100 million in payroll. After watching Greinke toy with us last night, is there anyone that out there that doesn’t see him starting game 1 vs whoever’s game 1 starter and us NOT having the advantage? Ray is as a good #3 as there is in baseball, this gives us the advantage vs all teams in the playoffs, except 2 teams, and those teams at worst it would be a wash. With this move, it won’t be hard to add a dominant pen arm, making our pen as good as any in the NL.

 

Then next year I have my rotation:

 

Greinke Woodruff Ray Davies Burnes/Houser/Supak/Peralta

 

Easily the best rotation in brewer history, one of the best in baseball, and certainly good enough to potentially beat the dodgers this year or next.

 

Certainly an interesting idea, and I love the aggressiveness of this trade proposal. But, just a couple of important comments/questions:

 

Are we asking the Dbacks to eat any of that remaining 70+M owed to Greinke for the '20 and '21 seasons? Or, are we just asking Mark A. to somehow fit that into our already crunched budget for the next two years? And, that doesn't even include the 8-9M that we would also now have to pay Robbie Ray in 2020.

 

Also, for two top level rotation arms like this - I'm guessing it would take more than just Turang, Lutz, Ashby and Lemons to land them. I would imagine we'd have to start with either Freddy/Burnes, then Turang, Grisham, Rasmussen and Ashby. Would take an absolute haul to get these two guys - unless if we are eating all of ZG's salary the next two years, and even then it would still probably take a haul.

 

I just edited my text to answer your question, and I have no problem adjusting names to make it work.

 

Grisham and Peralta are off the table if possible, unlike most on this site I believe we have tons of attractive prospects, and if we take on the full salary, I’m confident we can make a deal without my two aforementioned untouchables.

[Jopal78]

The Diamondbacks Pythagorean is still 56-44, they've been somewhat unlucky as evidenced by their 13-19 record in one run games. But their offense is 4th in runs scored and their pitching staff is 7th in runs allowed. They've scored more runs on offense than the Brewers have, and their pitching staff has allowed fewer runs than the Brewers have.

 

I'm sort of puzzled why they're even rumored to be selling. It seems the most logical move is to stand pat and see if the teams that have outplayed their Pythagorean (like the Brewers, Phillies, Giants) finally falter and collapse. The Diamondbacks also still have 21 games remaining against last place teams: Baltimore, Colorado, Cincinnati, Miami as well as a 4 game set versus the Mets.

 

I don't see them trading Robbie Ray now for a package of minor league players who are years away from the majors.

 

If their GM wants some financial flexibility by unloading Greinke and his contract, it somewhat defeats the point of a trade if gobs of future money are being included, unless of course the talent coming back is that good (Detroit kicked in 17 million to move Verlander's contract but got 2 top 100 prospects in return plus others).

[jjfanec]

The Diamondbacks Pythagorean is still 56-44, they've been somewhat unlucky as evidenced by their 13-19 record in one run games. But their offense is 4th in runs scored and their pitching staff is 7th in runs allowed. They've scored more runs on offense than the Brewers have, and their pitching staff has allowed fewer runs than the Brewers have.

 

I'm sort of puzzled why they're even rumored to be selling. It seems the most logical move is to stand pat and see if the teams that have outplayed their Pythagorean (like the Brewers, Phillies, Giants) finally falter and collapse. The Diamondbacks also still have 21 games remaining against last place teams: Baltimore, Colorado, Cincinnati, Miami as well as a 4 game set versus the Mets.

 

Passing those 3 teams still leaves them outside the playoffs. They have to pass the 3 of the Brewers, Nationals, Cards, and Phillies. Not saying they cant do it but having to pass that many teams is a big deal. They do have an 11 games stretch against the Yankees, Nationals, Phillies and Dodgers. Their August is pretty tough. With the aforementioned games they also play the Giants 6 times, the Rockies 6 times, the Brewers 3 times and then end with a 4 game Dodgers series. Then they have an incredibly easy looking September with just one series against a team .500 or better.

[Brewcrewin07]

I always feel like the best way to judge if a team is still in it or not, is look at how many teams they would have to pass, more than just how many games behind they are. You could only be 3 games out of a playoff spot, but if you have to pass 3-4 teams to get there, that's a pretty steep hill to climb. Point being, that's truly how buy/sell GM's should be thinking this week.

[Brew crew 92]

The Diamondbacks Pythagorean is still 56-44, they've been somewhat unlucky as evidenced by their 13-19 record in one run games. But their offense is 4th in runs scored and their pitching staff is 7th in runs allowed. They've scored more runs on offense than the Brewers have, and their pitching staff has allowed fewer runs than the Brewers have.

 

I'm sort of puzzled why they're even rumored to be selling. It seems the most logical move is to stand pat and see if the teams that have outplayed their Pythagorean (like the Brewers, Phillies, Giants) finally falter and collapse. The Diamondbacks also still have 21 games remaining against last place teams: Baltimore, Colorado, Cincinnati, Miami as well as a 4 game set versus the Mets.

 

I don't see them trading Robbie Ray now for a package of minor league players who are years away from the majors.

 

If their GM wants some financial flexibility by unloading Greinke and his contract, it somewhat defeats the point of a trade if gobs of future money are being included, unless of course the talent coming back is that good (Detroit kicked in 17 million to move Verlander's contract but got 2 top 100 prospects in return plus others).

 

You make a lot of good points, but, just looking at their pen, if it’s not the worst pen in the league, it’s got to be close, and not just statistically, but to my eyes, ugh. They have Zero chance to win the west, so do they give up gobs of prospects to get 3 pen arms to try to get past better teams just to get to the wild card game? Imo, they have a forward thinking GM, who imo, fleeced the cards in the goldy trade, and will be smart enough to sell Greinke and Ray.

 

Now to answer your logical argument that they might not want prospects that far away from the big leagues, my answer would be, if I’m Arizona ‘s GM I want the best talent I can get for when I trade them and can flip said prospects for ML ready ones.

[Roderick]

The Diamondbacks Pythagorean is still 56-44, they've been somewhat unlucky as evidenced by their 13-19 record in one run games. But their offense is 4th in runs scored and their pitching staff is 7th in runs allowed. They've scored more runs on offense than the Brewers have, and their pitching staff has allowed fewer runs than the Brewers have.

 

I'm sort of puzzled why they're even rumored to be selling. It seems the most logical move is to stand pat and see if the teams that have outplayed their Pythagorean (like the Brewers, Phillies, Giants) finally falter and collapse. The Diamondbacks also still have 21 games remaining against last place teams: Baltimore, Colorado, Cincinnati, Miami as well as a 4 game set versus the Mets.

 

Passing those 3 teams still leaves them outside the playoffs. They have to pass the 3 of the Brewers, Nationals, Cards, and Phillies. Not saying they cant do it but having to pass that many teams is a big deal. They do have an 11 games stretch against the Yankees, Nationals, Phillies and Dodgers. Their August is pretty tough. With the aforementioned games they also play the Giants 6 times, the Rockies 6 times, the Brewers 3 times and then end with a 4 game Dodgers series. Then they have an incredibly easy looking September with just one series against a team .500 or better.

 

If they pass three teams (tied with SF) they are WC#2 and in the playoffs. I don't think being 2.5 games out of the wildcard with their schedule is that daunting a task.

[jjfanec]

The Diamondbacks Pythagorean is still 56-44, they've been somewhat unlucky as evidenced by their 13-19 record in one run games. But their offense is 4th in runs scored and their pitching staff is 7th in runs allowed. They've scored more runs on offense than the Brewers have, and their pitching staff has allowed fewer runs than the Brewers have.

 

I'm sort of puzzled why they're even rumored to be selling. It seems the most logical move is to stand pat and see if the teams that have outplayed their Pythagorean (like the Brewers, Phillies, Giants) finally falter and collapse. The Diamondbacks also still have 21 games remaining against last place teams: Baltimore, Colorado, Cincinnati, Miami as well as a 4 game set versus the Mets.

 

Passing those 3 teams still leaves them outside the playoffs. They have to pass the 3 of the Brewers, Nationals, Cards, and Phillies. Not saying they cant do it but having to pass that many teams is a big deal. They do have an 11 games stretch against the Yankees, Nationals, Phillies and Dodgers. Their August is pretty tough. With the aforementioned games they also play the Giants 6 times, the Rockies 6 times, the Brewers 3 times and then end with a 4 game Dodgers series. Then they have an incredibly easy looking September with just one series against a team .500 or better.

 

If they pass three teams (tied with SF) they are WC#2 and in the playoffs. I don't think being 2.5 games out of the wildcard with their schedule is that daunting a task.

 

Of course they could do it. I wouldn't sell if I were them but all reports have them as a likely seller. Who knows who is right. They have a fairly simple September but their August is not easy at all

[Eye Black]

I am reviving this thread because acquiring Robbie Ray is an off-season move I would like to see the Brewers consider.

 

The Diamondbacks have a lot of young pitching talent that falls into the 26 and younger category (i.e. Luke Weaver, Zac Gallen, Jon Duplantier, Alex Young, Corbin Martin, J.B. Bukauskas, Yoan López, Taijuan Walker, Kevin Ginkel, Archie Bradley). They have Robbie Ray under contract for just one more season, and as with Paul Goldschmidt seem willing to deal players they don’t plan to re-sign. In addition to just having him for a full season, one positive element of trading for Ray in the off-season as opposed to July is he would be eligible to receive a qualifying offer next off-season. This could be a good option of the Brewers decide they need a #2/#3 type starting pitcher (not to mention a LH starter) in the rotation behind Woodruff.

[clancyphile]

I am reviving this thread because acquiring Robbie Ray is an off-season move I would like to see the Brewers consider.

 

The Diamondbacks have a lot of young pitching talent that falls into the 26 and younger category (i.e. Luke Weaver, Zac Gallen, Jon Duplantier, Alex Young, Corbin Martin, J.B. Bukauskas, Yoan López, Taijuan Walker, Kevin Ginkel, Archie Bradley). They have Robbie Ray under contract for just one more season, and as with Paul Goldschmidt seem willing to deal players they don’t plan to re-sign. In addition to just having him for a full season, one positive element of trading for Ray in the off-season as opposed to July is he would be eligible to receive a qualifying offer next off-season. This could be a good option of the Brewers decide they need a #2/#3 type starting pitcher (not to mention a LH starter) in the rotation behind Woodruff.

 

What would the price be from the farm system?

 

I could easily see the D-Backs asking for Ray and Ashby, in which case, pass. Ray's a good pitcher, but at most I'd offer Payton Henry and Lucas Erceg. Maybe Corey Ray or Tyrone Taylor even up.

[HiAndTight]

I am reviving this thread because acquiring Robbie Ray is an off-season move I would like to see the Brewers consider.

 

The Diamondbacks have a lot of young pitching talent that falls into the 26 and younger category (i.e. Luke Weaver, Zac Gallen, Jon Duplantier, Alex Young, Corbin Martin, J.B. Bukauskas, Yoan López, Taijuan Walker, Kevin Ginkel, Archie Bradley). They have Robbie Ray under contract for just one more season, and as with Paul Goldschmidt seem willing to deal players they don’t plan to re-sign. In addition to just having him for a full season, one positive element of trading for Ray in the off-season as opposed to July is he would be eligible to receive a qualifying offer next off-season. This could be a good option of the Brewers decide they need a #2/#3 type starting pitcher (not to mention a LH starter) in the rotation behind Woodruff.

 

What would the price be from the farm system?

 

I could easily see the D-Backs asking for Ray and Ashby, in which case, pass. Ray's a good pitcher, but at most I'd offer Payton Henry and Lucas Erceg. Maybe Corey Ray or Tyrone Taylor even up.

 

 

I'd happily give up Corey Ray and Ashby for Robbie Ray.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I am reviving this thread because acquiring Robbie Ray is an off-season move I would like to see the Brewers consider.

 

The Diamondbacks have a lot of young pitching talent that falls into the 26 and younger category (i.e. Luke Weaver, Zac Gallen, Jon Duplantier, Alex Young, Corbin Martin, J.B. Bukauskas, Yoan López, Taijuan Walker, Kevin Ginkel, Archie Bradley). They have Robbie Ray under contract for just one more season, and as with Paul Goldschmidt seem willing to deal players they don’t plan to re-sign. In addition to just having him for a full season, one positive element of trading for Ray in the off-season as opposed to July is he would be eligible to receive a qualifying offer next off-season. This could be a good option of the Brewers decide they need a #2/#3 type starting pitcher (not to mention a LH starter) in the rotation behind Woodruff.

 

What would the price be from the farm system?

 

I could easily see the D-Backs asking for Ray and Ashby, in which case, pass. Ray's a good pitcher, but at most I'd offer Payton Henry and Lucas Erceg. Maybe Corey Ray or Tyrone Taylor even up.

 

If the DBacks asked for Corey Ray and Ashby straight up for Robbie Ray, I do that deal without thinking twice. You get him for a "go for it" season, then can recoup a 1st rounder by tendering him. Being a lefty, Ray would be the perfect component to fill out the rotation.

[MrTPlush]

Pass, cost would probably be too much for a pitcher that simply isn't that good. This is Chris Archer all over again. Everyone gets excited about his stuff or strikeout numbers, but results aren't actually top of the rotation.

 

Homer prone (has increased year after year), walk prone, and his H/9 has increased the last three years.

 

We can find a 3/4 starter somewhere else and not have to pay $10mil along with giving up prospects.

[wntrtxn21]

Pass, cost would probably be too much for a pitcher that simply isn't that good. This is Chris Archer all over again. Everyone gets excited about his stuff or strikeout numbers, but results aren't actually top of the rotation.

 

Homer prone (has increased year after year), walk prone, and his H/9 has increased the last three years.

 

We can find a 3/4 starter somewhere else and not have to pay $10mil along with giving up prospects.

 

I'd have no problem giving up Corey Ray who has been a complete bust at AAA last year. His stock is sinking fast. Ashby is a decent prospect that I'd be willing to move for Ray IF Stearns re-signs Grandal-Moustakas-Pomeranz. Ray would be a very nice addition to the rotation at a price around $9-10M and give them a much better chance of winning. W/o re-signing those three it makes little sense to give up Ashby.

[trwi7]

I'd have no problem giving up Corey Ray who has been a complete bust at AAA last year.

 

Okay, but why would Arizona want him?

[homer]

I'd have no problem giving up Corey Ray who has been a complete bust at AAA last year.

 

Okay, but why would Arizona want him?

 

 

[3and2Fastball]

Corey Ray was not a bust this year. He was injured during much of the season.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'd have no problem giving up Corey Ray who has been a complete bust at AAA last year.

 

Okay, but why would Arizona want him?

 

For the same reason the 2019 Brewers found value is former perceived prospect bust Trent Grisham - we as stupid fans tend to give up on this guys long before intelligent front office people deem their careers to be over.

[trwi7]

I'd have no problem giving up Corey Ray who has been a complete bust at AAA last year.

 

Okay, but why would Arizona want him?

 

For the same reason the 2019 Brewers found value is former perceived prospect bust Trent Grisham - we as stupid fans tend to give up on this guys long before intelligent front office people deem their careers to be over.

 

Okay but Grisham has never posted an OBP lower than Ray at any level while also being several years younger than the average player at these levels with good walk and strikeout rates. Ray has none of that going for him.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

Okay but Grisham has never posted an OBP lower than Ray at any level while also being several years younger than the average player at these levels with good walk and strikeout rates. Ray has none of that going for him.

 

Just saying that it wouldn’t be unprecedented for Ray to put himself back on the prospect map in short order.

[IntentionalHBP]

Since the Dbacks acquired Madbum, Ray might be available.

[PeaveyFury]

As I said about Ray in the starting pitching thread, Ray seems like a bit of an enigma to me. Other than a GREAT 2017, his FIP numbers are bad, and he doesn't really log a lot of innings either. I think there's a chance you have to pay to acquire an all-star level pitcher who actually has Zach Davies-like numbers.

[adambr2]

As I said about Ray in the starting pitching thread, Ray seems like a bit of an enigma to me. Other than a GREAT 2017, his FIP numbers are bad, and he doesn't really log a lot of innings either. I think there's a chance you have to pay to acquire an all-star level pitcher who actually has Zach Davies-like numbers.

 

Well I don't see Davies ever approaching 12 K/9. I wonder if he could be reinvented as a high leverage pen arm rather than a middle of the rotation starter.

[SRB]

I suspect Ray will cost way too much to make it worth our while, but it would be amusing to have both Robbie Ray and Brett Anderson in the same rotation. Basically exact opposites.

[PeaveyFury]

As I said about Ray in the starting pitching thread, Ray seems like a bit of an enigma to me. Other than a GREAT 2017, his FIP numbers are bad, and he doesn't really log a lot of innings either. I think there's a chance you have to pay to acquire an all-star level pitcher who actually has Zach Davies-like numbers.

 

Well I don't see Davies ever approaching 12 K/9. I wonder if he could be reinvented as a high leverage pen arm rather than a middle of the rotation starter.

 

Sure, the stuff is there. I just think his hype/cost is likely to exceed his expected results. Obviously, if the Brewers feel there's something they can harnes with him, I'd understand that as well.