Brewers showing interest in Robbie Ray [Old Title, Concept Revisited]

[Brewcrewin07]

Sorry all you people that want them to sell...I would LOVE this move.

 

Jon Morosi

@jonmorosi

1h

 

 

Source: #Brewers among teams showing interest in #DBacks LHP Robbie Ray. @MLBNetwork @MLB

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Sorry all you people that want them to sell...I would LOVE this move.

 

Jon Morosi

@jonmorosi

1h

 

 

Source: #Brewers among teams showing interest in #DBacks LHP Robbie Ray. @MLBNetwork @MLB

 

I like Ray, but they'd have to back the prospect truck up to make this deal. Like totally decimate their top prospects list, plus likely give up ML assets as well. I think Ray would likely command a similar package to what they dealt for Greinke.

[pacopete4]

Sorry all you people that want them to sell...I would LOVE this move.

 

Jon Morosi

@jonmorosi

1h

 

 

Source: #Brewers among teams showing interest in #DBacks LHP Robbie Ray. @MLBNetwork @MLB

 

Perfect move. Trade for this guy and sell our 1-year deals away and go after it next year when we have a competent team in place.

[Eye Black]

I thought a potential Robbie Ray move made a ton of sense this past off-season if a deal could have been made (link). A LHP that has proven to be consistent in a park that plays very similarly to Miller Park. The biggest knock on Ray is he gives up a ton of walks (4.5 per 9 innings over the past three seasons).

 

I do wonder if the Diamondbacks would prioritize guys that could be in their lineup or rotation over the next year such as Freddy Peralta, Trent Grisham, Mauricio Dubon. They have pretty solid infielders, so not sure if Dubon would be a great fit.

 

If the Brewers do make this move I wouldn't hate them trying to work LHRP Andrew Chafin into the deal as well. Like Ray, Chafin is also under contract through next season.

[Jopal78]

The Diamondbacks are a weird team. They made the LDS in 2017 after winning 93 games (Pythagorean of 96 wins), went 82-80 last year (Pythagorean of 86) and decided to trade of their best player Goldschmidt and had two key free agents leave: Corbin and Pollock. They're sitting 47-47 this year (with a Pythagorean of 52-42 ) and they contemplating selling off further.

 

If I was Milwaukee I'd pounce on a Robbie Ray deal at whatever the prospect cost. They'd acquire a quality controllable starting pitcher and in the process weaken one of the NL playoff contending teams in the process. A 2 for 1!

[OldHeidelberg]

 

I like Ray, but they'd have to back the prospect truck up to make this deal. Like totally decimate their top prospects list, plus likely give up ML assets as well. I think Ray would likely command a similar package to what they dealt for Greinke.

 

According to the trade value site he has 22.9 million in value, so we are talking something like Lutz and Dubon by their measure. Like a lot of guys that are brought up in these trades I go look at the career stats and am not so impressed, only one really good season. Still seems like a good idea if he can be had as cheaply as Lutz/Dubon but I don't think he compares well to the value of 2 years of Greinke when we made that trade. Greinke was and actually still is a better pitcher.

[Jopal78]

You have to look at the entire picture. Ray has pitched 111 innings this year across twenty starts. He has pitched deeper into games than anyone on the Brewers current staff but for Woodruff. He has 145 strike outs in those 111 innings. That bests everyone on the Brewers staff (Woodruff 126Ks in 108 innings). He has allowed 47 earned runs in 111 innings. Woodruff by comparison has allowed 44 in 108 innings, so again Ray has been very similar to Woodruff in 2019. The walks and homeruns are the only blemish on Ray. Yet his homeruns allowed per/9 of 1.3 is still better than Chacin, Chase Anderson, Burnes, Peralta and is equal to Houser.

 

Based on results Robbie Ray immediately would slot in as the Brewers 2nd best starter, and if Gio Gonzalez comes back and pitches even to his career numbers the Brewers rotation would look significantly better than it does right now.

[JackNicholson1974]

Crazy idea...take on Greinke and his contract as a deal for Ray. Send them 2-3 lotto tickets in A ball. The benefit to them is getting out from under the Greinke contract.

[KeithStone53151]

Crazy idea...take on Greinke and his contract as a deal for Ray. Send them 2-3 lotto tickets in A ball. The benefit to them is getting out from under the Greinke contract.

 

That won't happen, even if Joseph comes on and calculates that Greinke is a negative value contract...it would still take good prospects to get the Dbacks to move him. Your best bet is to look at the Astros trade for Verlander as a comparable. The Tigers paid a chunk of the contract but got some good prospects back in return. It's not a perfect comparison but should be a good template to look at.

[bill hAll Star]

Crazy idea...take on Greinke and his contract as a deal for Ray. Send them 2-3 lotto tickets in A ball. The benefit to them is getting out from under the Greinke contract.

 

That won't happen, even if Joseph comes on and calculates that Greinke is a negative value contract...it would still take good prospects to get the Dbacks to move him. Your best bet is to look at the Astros trade for Verlander as a comparable. The Tigers paid a chunk of the contract but got some good prospects back in return. It's not a perfect comparison but should be a good template to look at.

 

Second this, and the other element is that while teams will openly try to get out of contracts, I feel like Greinke's might be one where optics matter.

 

The Marlins were filleted (pun intended) for being cheap but even at that, the Stanton move made sense in some ways. Yes it was probably cheap as heck, but in theory if the Marlins were doing an earnest rebuild, you don't want a mid/late 20s Stanton making $30 million in 2024.

 

Teams will of course attach something to get rid of completely dead weight.

 

But this one would be an All-Star pitcher with only 2 years left. Yes, he is a huge risk to decline and has been, but the theoretical trade of Ray attached to Greinke to get rid of him would be, "we're rebuilding as of today and by the way, we are just going to pocket $70 million in the process" because Greinke's deal probably won't get in the way of a competitive D-Backs team in 3-5 years.

 

To look at the trade, as Keith says, we'd probably have to throw some prospects in. If the haul isn't absurd, this wouldn't be too crazy of a trade, though you're basically trading Moose, Grandal, and said prospects for Greinke/Ray in 2020. I doubt we'd be spending money to fill 3B or C next year.

 

Has a huge risk of backfiring, but it's pretty likely that we're blowing things up in 2021 regardless unless some better luck/MLB talent is injected in.

[OldHeidelberg]

You have to look at the entire picture. Ray has pitched 111 innings this year across twenty starts. He has pitched deeper into games than anyone on the Brewers current staff but for Woodruff. He has 145 strike outs in those 111 innings. That bests everyone on the Brewers staff (Woodruff 126Ks in 108 innings). He has allowed 47 earned runs in 111 innings. Woodruff by comparison has allowed 44 in 108 innings, so again Ray has been very similar to Woodruff in 2019. The walks and homeruns are the only blemish on Ray. Yet his homeruns allowed per/9 of 1.3 is still better than Chacin, Chase Anderson, Burnes, Peralta and is equal to Houser.

 

Based on results Robbie Ray immediately would slot in as the Brewers 2nd best starter, and if Gio Gonzalez comes back and pitches even to his career numbers the Brewers rotation would look significantly better than it does right now.

 

That combination of walks and homers sounds like a ticking time bomb. But I am actually fine with making a play for him, getting someone who could help turn it around this year but more importantly starts us on our retool plan for next is just the sort for thing we should be looking at. Plus we know the team would love a lefty in the rotation. But I am not backing up our not so heavy prospect truck for guys like him, Stroman, or Boyd. I keep bringing up Davies whenever we discuss these starting pitching trades but it helps me to understand what we can expect when I compare him to a pitcher I know. Davies has 7.8 bWAR in 557.1 career innings, Ray has 9.2 in 727.1.

[harrydalton]

I'm not as enthusiastic about Ray as some. But assuming they want a reliable or better starter and\or a quality reliever I would be willing to offer among the following minor league players (with Arcia the exception): Arcia or Dubon; Corey Ray or Trent Grisham; any pitcher(s) except Rasmussen, Ashby, or Antoine Kelly; any position players except Turang, Feliciano, or Lutz. This would adequately protect depth the next few years.

[JosephC]

A couple weeks back, when I was still thinking the team would be in a buying mode, I figured Ray would be the best non-rental starter they could land with what they had in the minors minus Hiura. I had the price figured closer to 30 million than the 22.9 million listed on the baseballtradevalue site. I don't think a deal gets made without Turnag being the centerpiece, so it would be critical that the Diamondbacks like Turang. If so, I think the Ray for Turang + Supak + Bello would be a pretty fair deal.

[Vollbc74]

Ray & Holland (22.2M Surplus)

 

for

 

Peralta & Ray (25.7 Surplus)

 

Surplus is based off of trade value site.

 

Brewers overpay a little in a surplus sense, but I believe they need to because the site is a little high on Ray during his down year.

[Warning Track Power]

Couple options here:

 

1. If Attanasio could afford to do it (and none of us really know if he could), I would eat as much of the Greinke contract (2 years $70m after this year) as possible if they could also acquire Ray for limited prospect return.

2. I would very much be interested in acquiring Ray and Archie Bradley, who is having a down year but was quite good in 2017 and 2018, and is signed through 2022.

3. I would also be interested in Greinke alone if they could pay down the contract a little and not expect great prospects in return.

[wntrtxn21]

I'm not as enthusiastic about Ray as some. But assuming they want a reliable or better starter and\or a quality reliever I would be willing to offer among the following minor league players (with Arcia the exception): Arcia or Dubon; Corey Ray or Trent Grisham; any pitcher(s) except Rasmussen, Ashby, or Antoine Kelly; any position players except Turang, Feliciano, or Lutz. This would adequately protect depth the next few years.

 

If they are looking for pitching what's left to offer them? Arcia may interest them. Grisham may interest them as part of a package, but where's the pitching they'd want?

[Brewcrewin07]

I'm not as enthusiastic about Ray as some. But assuming they want a reliable or better starter and\or a quality reliever I would be willing to offer among the following minor league players (with Arcia the exception): Arcia or Dubon; Corey Ray or Trent Grisham; any pitcher(s) except Rasmussen, Ashby, or Antoine Kelly; any position players except Turang, Feliciano, or Lutz. This would adequately protect depth the next few years.

 

If they are looking for pitching what's left to offer them? Arcia may interest them. Grisham may interest them as part of a package, but where's the pitching they'd want?

 

Peralta...IF and only if Ray is the top arm they'd get. if they get him plus another bigger arm, then I'd put Peralta in that deal.

[Eye Black]

It works out sort of nicely that the Brewers play a four game series against the Diamondbacks starting tomorrow, but won’t face Ray since he’s scheduled to pitch today.

[clancyphile]

Couple options here:

 

1. If Attanasio could afford to do it (and none of us really know if he could), I would eat as much of the Greinke contract (2 years $70m after this year) as possible if they could also acquire Ray for limited prospect return.

2. I would very much be interested in acquiring Ray and Archie Bradley, who is having a down year but was quite good in 2017 and 2018, and is signed through 2022.

3. I would also be interested in Greinke alone if they could pay down the contract a little and not expect great prospects in return.

 

Thinking outside the box along these lines is a good thing, IMO.

 

Ideally, I'd go for option #1 - Ray and Greinke for a combination of Nottingham, Erceg, and Chase Anderson. Keep to that.

 

That provides a rotation of Woodruff, Greinke, Ray, Davies, and Gio when all are healthy.

Bullpen of Hader, Peralta, Jeffress, Houser, Peralta, Claudio, Jackson, Guerra, and Chacin.

 

Hard part after that is extending Moose and Grandal... but that pitching staff gives Milwaukee a very good shot at a World Series win.

[PeaveyFury]

Has there been any real indication that the Dbacks are desperate to dump Greinke's contract? Even if they were, would they package a trade asset like Ray with him and seriously devalue the return just to do so?

[Eye Black]

Has there been any real indication that the Dbacks are desperate to dump Greinke's contract? Even if they were, would they package a trade asset like Ray with him and seriously devalue the return just to do so?

Under their previous front office leadership I think anything could have been possible, but I don’t think they would be willing to move Ray for lesser assets in return just so they could move Greinke’s contract.

[Warning Track Power]

Has there been any real indication that the Dbacks are desperate to dump Greinke's contract? Even if they were, would they package a trade asset like Ray with him and seriously devalue the return just to do so?

The rumor all offseason was they were desperate to move off that contract. My reason for throwing out the idea of paying Greinke to acquire Ray was more to lessen the prospect load going to Arizona. I have no clue if they would be willing to do something like that but if Attanasio were willing to (throwing a large number out on purpose) say $50 million off their hands, I think they would have to "throw in" a Ray because I don't see any other way they get out of that contract.

[TigerUppercut]

Couple options here:

 

1. If Attanasio could afford to do it (and none of us really know if he could), I would eat as much of the Greinke contract (2 years $70m after this year) as possible if they could also acquire Ray for limited prospect return.

2. I would very much be interested in acquiring Ray and Archie Bradley, who is having a down year but was quite good in 2017 and 2018, and is signed through 2022.

3. I would also be interested in Greinke alone if they could pay down the contract a little and not expect great prospects in return.

 

Thinking outside the box along these lines is a good thing, IMO.

 

Ideally, I'd go for option #1 - Ray and Greinke for a combination of Nottingham, Erceg, and Chase Anderson. Keep to that.

 

That provides a rotation of Woodruff, Greinke, Ray, Davies, and Gio when all are healthy.

Bullpen of Hader, Peralta, Jeffress, Houser, Peralta, Claudio, Jackson, Guerra, and Chacin.

 

Hard part after that is extending Moose and Grandal... but that pitching staff gives Milwaukee a very good shot at a World Series win.

 

I'm assuming this should be in blue. The Brewers don't even want those guys, why would any one else want them?

[JosephC]

Has there been any real indication that the Dbacks are desperate to dump Greinke's contract? Even if they were, would they package a trade asset like Ray with him and seriously devalue the return just to do so?

 

They seemed hot to move Greinke this off-season after they had moved Goldschmidt, but at that time they weren't thinking they would be all that competitive. Now that they've turned out to be a decent team, I'd guess their attitude has changed because Greinke's name really hasn't come up much. Greinke is also on pace to completely blow away all of the projections on him coming into the season.

 

Looking back through old threads, I had put Greinke's surplus value at a -12.85 million in mid-November. But that assumed he'd be a 3.4 WAR pitcher this year and then decline by 0.5 WAR per year after that. But Greinke's currently sits at a 3.2 fWAR and 3.5 bWAR this season, so he's on pace for a 5.7 bWAR/fWAR season. He won't be projected to be a 5.2 WAR player in 2020 and then a 4.7 WAR player in 2021, but his future projections would have to be well higher than 2.9 WAR in 2020 and the 2.4 WAR in 2021, values that I had used to calculate the -12.85 million surplus value in November. If anything, it's a pretty good bet that he probably carries plus-surplus value at this point and really isn't a candidate as a salary dump player at all. There would be limited buyers due to the size of his contract, but there is a difference in having a limited market versus being a negative value player.

 

I don't think including him in a Ray deal gets the Brewers one bit of a discount. Something like Greinke/Ray for Anderson/Nottingham/Erceg is completely unrealistic IMO.

[Brew crew 92]

I believe the Diamondbacks to be sellers at the deadline, their GM has to know they have too many weaknesses in their pitching to get to the wild card. With that said:

 

Trade for Zack Greinke AND Robbie Ray.

 

Greinke & Ray > Turang & Lutz & Ashby & Lemons

 

I convince my owner that the time to win is now.The best window we have to win a title is 2019/2020. I tell my owner that I’m going to have to trade Yelich and Hader after 2020 for maximum prospect return. I also tell my owner I can trade Woodruff and a couple others and completely re-tool in 1-2 years, and saving 100 million in payroll. My best opportunity to get the pitching I need to accomplish my goal of said title is to work out a deal for Greinke and Ray, to take on the payroll, to avoid the competition of other teams, especially the high payrolls that can’t go over the tax threshold, so with one deal I can give myself a legitimate chance to win not just now but next year as well. After watching Greinke toy with us last night, is there anyone that out there that doesn’t see him starting game 1 vs whoever’s game 1 starter and us NOT having the advantage? Ray is as a good #3 as there is in baseball, this gives us the advantage vs all teams in the playoffs, except 2 teams, and those teams at worst it would be a wash. With this move, it won’t be hard to add a dominant pen arm, making our pen as good as any in the NL.

 

Then next year I have my rotation:

 

Greinke Woodruff Ray Davies Burnes/Houser/Supak/Peralta

 

Easily the best rotation in brewer history, one of the best in baseball, and certainly good enough to potentially beat the dodgers this year or next.