Time to extend Yelich?

[tmwiese55]

First, great post by Stache way at the beginning. That's generally my take on some of this discussion on here lately about trading all our good players right now.

 

Second, some of the numbers tossed out recently in the 30-50 mil per year range just don't make sense to me. That is paying FA market rates for a guy controlled for 3 more years. If there isn't a reasonable discount then you just don't have to do it. He'll be in his low 30s, we should not be looking to add in a 30+ mil per year deal for someone in those ages. I don't see the harm in talking to the guy and seeing what he's open to, heck he clearly was open to security in stability when he signed this deal with MIA. But if his agent says something like 'we took a team friendly deal the first time, this time we need market' well then it's probably dead for now. Revisit in a year or two. If he says, 'yea he loves it here and would love to lock something in for his long term stability.' Then keep talking and see where it ends up. The Brewers have him all the power in the negotiation now (controlled for years and won't hit FA until early 30s which has been bad for people lately) and shouldn't feel the least bit guilty about it, especially since it wasn't them who signed him to the deal. If you can't use that leverage for a big discount, then ride it out.

[timpep]

I'm gonna say there was more Braun fever at the time than there is now for Yelich. I think the big reason is that the Brewers had sucked FOREVER. They've had a modicum of success the last decade so there's some fatigue there. They drew 3 million fans in 2008, that was before they'd even made the playoffs yet. Before Ryan Braun the mere concept of a Brewers player winning MVP was comical for anyone born after 1985.

 

Braun and Fielder were transcendent players for the team that they hadn't had since Yount.

I think there was quite a bit of extra appeal because we drafted Braun and he spent his whole career in the org. I could see Hiura being more popular than yelich in the future for the same reasons.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Casual fans don't care where players came from. Most of them have no idea how the draft even works. See man, see man hit ball is as deep as their knowledge of the minors goes for most folks. If Braun grew up in Wauwatosa that would hold some weight.

[Warning Track Power]

Braun's extension is a much better example of the kind of offer you would make this far out from free agency. At the time, Braun had 5 years and 40M left on his deal.

 

So we obviously didn't just tear that 5/40 up and give him 20M a year on his new deal. We put just the extension part at his current market value at the time, with a slight discount because of how far out he was from free agency and added that on to his existing 5/40.

 

That's key. Guys years out from free agency on a team friendly deal don't have leverage. If you're looking to extend them you're looking to do so at a discount.

 

Something similar right now for Yelich, inflation adjusted from 2011 would probably be in the ballpark of 5 years/125M on the extension. That would be a pretty reasonable extension offer that you might make right now and it would at least be understandable.

You and I are going back and forth and I think we may be missing each other's point. I hear you about the leverage thing and understand that Yelich has none right now as he is signed for 3 seasons after this. My point is simply if the Brewers want/hope to re-sign him, the only way I see them being able to do so would be to offer a new contract with new money upfront like the one I am proposing.

 

Yelich currently has 3 years $31.5m on his deal remaining

-Your proposal is extending that 5 years (through age 35) and $125m for a total of 8 years $152.5m

-My proposal is essentially ripping up his existing deal, tacking on an additional 3 years to and giving him $150m of new money to be spread out evenly over the 6 years for a total of 6 years $181.5m. This contract takes him through age 33.

 

We can argue the merits of one or the other. I just believe that if its the Brewers goal to keep Yelich in Milwaukee, the latter is the best way to do so. It gives him money upfront and (unbelievably) is still below market value for his talent.

[sveumrules]

Trout is making 34.5 million in 2023, which would be the first season following Yelich's current deal.

 

Assuming the team stays competitive in 2020/21 & Yelich remains healthy/elite over that same time frame, I would guess the minimum extension he would consider would be something like 6/200 coming into 2022.

 

That would be an annual salary of 32 million from 2023-2029 (ages 31-36) with an 8 million signing bonus to kind of pump up the 15 million team option for 2022.

[JackNicholson1974]

Better idea. Enjoy the ride, play to win, let him walk at the end of the deal and let his 30 million dollar a year contract be someone elses problem. Why the heck are we always so quick to deal away all of our players? He is a generational talent. Keep him here on this wonderful deal, its the reason we traded for him in the first place.

 

Because losing that big of an asset for nothing at all is devastating to the near future after he does leave, particularly for a small market team.

 

So we should trade him now for another team's version of Lewis Brinson, Monte Harrison, Isan Diaz and Jordan Yamamoto?

 

What the hell is even the point of acquiring anyone when, if we dont compete for a world series immediately and at every moment of every season we all want to trade our All Stars and rebuild.

[MrTPlush]

They would get a comp pick...wouldn't lose everything. Which then can turn into a Monte Harrison and be apart of the next package for a stud.

 

I personally was sure glad they decided to let Prince Fielder walk in 2011 instead of being too scared of some risk. Was a good run.

[adambr2]

Better idea. Enjoy the ride, play to win, let him walk at the end of the deal and let his 30 million dollar a year contract be someone elses problem. Why the heck are we always so quick to deal away all of our players? He is a generational talent. Keep him here on this wonderful deal, its the reason we traded for him in the first place.

 

Because losing that big of an asset for nothing at all is devastating to the near future after he does leave, particularly for a small market team.

 

So we should trade him now for another team's version of Lewis Brinson, Monte Harrison, Isan Diaz and Jordan Yamamoto?

 

What the hell is even the point of acquiring anyone when, if we dont compete for a world series immediately and at every moment of every season we all want to trade our All Stars and rebuild.

 

Goodness, as I said before if you can compete go ahead and put some talent around him and try to make a run in the next 3+ years then by all means do it. That's fine and good and I'm all for that. All I was saying is trading him eventually is better than losing him for zip if you're in a position after 2020 or so where you're not going to compete anyway and you're hovering around .500 in '19 and '20. I certainly wasn't suggesting putting Yelich on the block now or even in the offseason.

 

And FWIW Yelich is worth way more than when we acquired him, so the Brinson+ trade is not a great comparison, especially being able to evaluate that one with some hindsight.

 

They would get a comp pick...wouldn't lose everything. Which then can turn into a Monte Harrison and be apart of the next package for a stud.

 

In the scheme of what Yelich is really worth it's essentially nothing. In today's value terms it would be like trading Yelich for Alex Claudio.

[Ennder]

You have two more years of Yelich before you need to consider moving him. Enjoy the two seasons, then the status of the team following 2021 tells you what the path forward is.

 

A lot of this depends on the next CBA. If you can either keep him a 3rd year or get a great draft pick for not taking the qualifying offer it is much more plausible to not extend him. If the CBA changes this somewhat it is less plausible.