Time to extend Yelich?

[TigerUppercut]

Better idea. Enjoy the ride, play to win, let him walk at the end of the deal and let his 30 million dollar a year contract be someone elses problem. Why the heck are we always so quick to deal away all of our players? He is a generational talent. Keep him here on this wonderful deal, its the reason we traded for him in the first place.

 

Because losing that big of an asset for nothing at all is devastating to the near future after he does leave, particularly for a small market team.

 

This is a hope strategy and there's not a single successful business on earth that runs on a continuous hope strategy. We lost Fielder, and what would that have gotten us at peak? The infamous, Daniel Hudson?

 

Maybe I'm in the minority, but if a team can compete for a playoff berth, a team can win it all. Some here seem to have forgotten how hard it is just to get in. As long as we have a chance to get in with Yelich on the team, I'm going to trust my fellow Harvard alum over the disagreeing fanbase here and run with it.

[adambr2]

Currently, Christian Yelich is signed through 2022 for $31.5 million. What if the Brewers were to approach him and offer Christian $150m worth of new money and tack on 3 additional years to the contract? Essentially his 3 year $31.5m deal becomes a 6 year $180m deal and extends him through his age 32 season.

 

Putting myself in his shoes and seeing what is occurring with FAs around the 30-31 age, I would be inclined to take it. Is it the $330m or $300m that Harper and Machado are making? No. However, they were FAs at the age of 26 and not 30.

 

No, absolutely not. That's literally a 50M a year contract in new money. Not only is that blowing away the richest previous contract in MLB history but you're doing it years before he even hits free agency when he has no leverage at all.

[adambr2]

Better idea. Enjoy the ride, play to win, let him walk at the end of the deal and let his 30 million dollar a year contract be someone elses problem. Why the heck are we always so quick to deal away all of our players? He is a generational talent. Keep him here on this wonderful deal, its the reason we traded for him in the first place.

 

Because losing that big of an asset for nothing at all is devastating to the near future after he does leave, particularly for a small market team.

 

This is a hope strategy and there's not a single successful business on earth that runs on a continuous hope strategy. We lost Fielder, and what would that have gotten us at peak? The infamous, Daniel Hudson?

 

Maybe I'm in the minority, but if a team can compete for a playoff berth, a team can win it all. Some here seem to have forgotten how hard it is just to get in. As long as we have a chance to get in with Yelich on the team, I'm going to trust my fellow Harvard alum over the disagreeing fanbase here and run with it.

 

#1, making sure you get a king's ransom for Yelich isn't a "hope strategy" any more than going all in on one year is a "hope strategy."

 

#2, Yelich is worth way, way more than what Prince was worth at midseason 2010 when we were shopping him.

 

#3, I am not saying you absolutely have to trade Yelich in these next 3 years. If they want to go after it these next 3 years, then that's great. But if you're going to go that route, you have to do everything you can to maximize the talent around Yelich and make sure you have something to show for this era. You can't just waltz through three .500 seasons and tip your cap and say goodbye.

[mtrebs]

#3, I am not saying you absolutely have to trade Yelich in these next 3 years. If they want to go after it these next 3 years, then that's great. But if you're going to go that route, you have to do everything you can to maximize the talent around Yelich and make sure you have something to show for this era. You can't just waltz through three .500 seasons and tip your cap and say goodbye.

 

This is what gets me worried. We end up making minor changes and hover around or slightly above .500. Either go all-in at some point while Yelich is here, or reload. That’s why I couldn’t stand the moves this off-season: going young with 3/5 of the starting rotation is what a rebuilding team should do, but then we signed Moose and Grandal to one-year deals, like a team going for it all would do. We didn’t go a clear direction, and here we are, hovering around .500 and wasting one of the 5 years we have Yelich under control.

[Warning Track Power]

Currently, Christian Yelich is signed through 2022 for $31.5 million. What if the Brewers were to approach him and offer Christian $150m worth of new money and tack on 3 additional years to the contract? Essentially his 3 year $31.5m deal becomes a 6 year $180m deal and extends him through his age 32 season.

 

Putting myself in his shoes and seeing what is occurring with FAs around the 30-31 age, I would be inclined to take it. Is it the $330m or $300m that Harper and Machado are making? No. However, they were FAs at the age of 26 and not 30.

 

No, absolutely not. That's literally a 50M a year contract in new money. Not only is that blowing away the richest previous contract in MLB history but you're doing it years before he even hits free agency when he has no leverage at all.

No. It's on average $30m a year contract because you spread it out over the 5 years and you gain an additional 2 years of prime years Yelich.

[adambr2]

Currently, Christian Yelich is signed through 2022 for $31.5 million. What if the Brewers were to approach him and offer Christian $150m worth of new money and tack on 3 additional years to the contract? Essentially his 3 year $31.5m deal becomes a 6 year $180m deal and extends him through his age 32 season.

 

Putting myself in his shoes and seeing what is occurring with FAs around the 30-31 age, I would be inclined to take it. Is it the $330m or $300m that Harper and Machado are making? No. However, they were FAs at the age of 26 and not 30.

 

No, absolutely not. That's literally a 50M a year contract in new money. Not only is that blowing away the richest previous contract in MLB history but you're doing it years before he even hits free agency when he has no leverage at all.

No. It's on average $30m a year contract because you spread it out over the 5 years and you gain an additional 2 years of prime years Yelich.

 

That's not how it works. Baseball contracts are guaranteed and not renegotiable. The rate that Yelich is already signed for is irrelevant in what you give him on an extension. You don't just give a guy 150M more guaranteed over 3 years in new money 3 years before he's even a free agent to compensate for a lower market deal and make it look more reasonable when you spread it out.

 

It's 50M a year in new money. Which is way over the top regardless of how you want to redistribute it. If you're making an offer like that you're offering something like 3/90 at the very most, which is around market value and you're hoping he will take that on the basis of offering shorter years for security now. Not 3/150 and tacking on the already contracted money to dress up the total.

[Warning Track Power]

That's not how it works. Baseball contracts are guaranteed. The rate that Yelich is already signed for is irrelevant in what you give him on an extension. You don't just give a guy 150M more guaranteed over 3 years in new money 3 years before he's even a free agent to compensate for a lower market deal and make it look more reasonable when you spread it out.

 

It's 50M a year in new money. Which is way over the top regardless of how you want to redistribute it. If you're making an offer like that you're offering something like 3/90 at the very most, which is around market value and you're hoping he will take that on the basis of offering shorter years for security now. Not 3/150 and tacking on the already contracted money to dress up the total.

You act like a concept such as this is unprecedented but it just happened with the Mike Trout contract, where the Angels ripped up the final two years in his extension:

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26306935/sources-angels-trout-new-430m-deal

 

Yelich is a superstar and will get paid as one. If you don't want it to be with the Brewers then fine. That's a different discussion. You can argue for the sake of arguing but the point remains that if the Brewers want to resign him, even if they offer him the deal I propose, it is still below market value and you get an additional 2 years.

[adambr2]

That's not how it works. Baseball contracts are guaranteed. The rate that Yelich is already signed for is irrelevant in what you give him on an extension. You don't just give a guy 150M more guaranteed over 3 years in new money 3 years before he's even a free agent to compensate for a lower market deal and make it look more reasonable when you spread it out.

 

It's 50M a year in new money. Which is way over the top regardless of how you want to redistribute it. If you're making an offer like that you're offering something like 3/90 at the very most, which is around market value and you're hoping he will take that on the basis of offering shorter years for security now. Not 3/150 and tacking on the already contracted money to dress up the total.

You act like a concept such as this is unprecedented but it just happened with the Mike Trout contract, where the Angels ripped up the final two years in his extension:

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26306935/sources-angels-trout-new-430m-deal

 

Yelich is a superstar and will get paid as one. If you don't want it to be with the Brewers then fine. That's a different discussion. You can argue for the sake of arguing but the point remains that if the Brewers want to resign him, even if they offer him the deal I propose, it is still below market value and you get an additional 2 years.

 

That article statement about "tearing up" is pretty misleading, Trout was already scheduled to make 34M in each of 2020 and 2021 on his previous deal. He didn't get a cumulative raise for those seasons, it's not at all like just changing Yelich's 10M annual salary to 30+. Essentially it was simply a 10 year/360M extension with no change to his 20/21 salaries.

 

https://larrybrownsports.com/baseball/mike-trout-angels-largest-contract-sports-history/488289

 

It's nothing like what you are proposing with Yelich. His contract is one of the things that make him even more valuable to us and you're essentially just giving that up. And giving up the affordability of Yelich's contract will hamper us from putting a competitive team around him.

[adambr2]

Braun's extension is a much better example of the kind of offer you would make this far out from free agency. At the time, Braun had 5 years and 40M left on his deal.

 

So we obviously didn't just tear that 5/40 up and give him 20M a year on his new deal. We put just the extension part at his current market value at the time, with a slight discount because of how far out he was from free agency and added that on to his existing 5/40.

 

That's key. Guys years out from free agency on a team friendly deal don't have leverage. If you're looking to extend them you're looking to do so at a discount.

 

Something similar right now for Yelich, inflation adjusted from 2011 would probably be in the ballpark of 5 years/125M on the extension. That would be a pretty reasonable extension offer that you might make right now and it would at least be understandable.

[Jopal78]

Why would Yelich ever sign an extension with the Brewers? If they offered him an extension I’m sure he would decline it and see what he could get as a free agent; if the offers didn’t meet his expectations he probably knows he could always go back and take Milwaukee’s Money

[adambr2]

Why would Yelich ever sign an extension with the Brewers? If they offered him an extension I’m sure he would decline it and see what he could get as a free agent; if the offers didn’t meet his expectations he probably knows he could always go back and take Milwaukee’s Money

 

Because he likes it here? Because 9 figures is life changing money and a lot can happen in 3.5 years?

 

I'm not saying Yelich would sign but there's definitely reasons he might.

[PeaveyFury]

You have two more years of Yelich before you need to consider moving him. Enjoy the two seasons, then the status of the team following 2021 tells you what the path forward is.

[DHonks]

The only way Yelich takes an extension is if we tear up the current 3 years remaining on the deal. Just to think about this realistically, he has $41.5 million remaining.

 

To add 5 more years we’d have to offer him probably $165 million in new money. Let’s say $27 million per year from 2023-2027, with annual increases in 2020-2022 of $10million on top of what is already owed. That’s the only way I could see him taking that extension would be by increasing his money over the next three years

[Diamondbacks]

Yelich and Giannis need to stay in Milwaukee. I think I speak for the fan base for both and can say if we lose either 1, it will cripple that team. And our hopes.

Yelich is gonna be a 40 stolen base 50 homer guy this year. I agree we should wait and see how he performs next year. Giving him 10 for 250 right now wouldnt be smart.

[DHonks]

Yelich and Giannis need to stay in Milwaukee. I think I speak for the fan base for both and can say if we lose either 1, it will cripple that team. And our hopes.

Yelich is gonna be a 40 stolen base 50 homer guy this year. I agree we should wait and see how he performs next year. Giving him 10 for 250 right now wouldnt be smart.

 

there's no way he would do that. Right now, he's 10-year worth is around $350M.

[Diamondbacks]

Yelich and Giannis need to stay in Milwaukee. I think I speak for the fan base for both and can say if we lose either 1, it will cripple that team. And our hopes.

Yelich is gonna be a 40 stolen base 50 homer guy this year. I agree we should wait and see how he performs next year. Giving him 10 for 250 right now wouldnt be smart.

 

there's no way he would do that. Right now, he's 10-year worth is around $350M.

I was just going off what someone else said.. with the 10-250. He probably is worth 10-350 if not more... we got 2 superstars in Milwaukee that are gonna command over a quarter billion to stay. I hope to God we can keep both. It really helps that Giannis and Yeli, seem to love Milwaukee and the fans...that's big. But CC, loved Milwaukee and went to the yanks . Well see I guess. I need to see what yelich does next year before any talks. He cant keep up this pace...I mean he is unbelievable.

[adambr2]

Yelich and Giannis need to stay in Milwaukee. I think I speak for the fan base for both and can say if we lose either 1, it will cripple that team. And our hopes.

Yelich is gonna be a 40 stolen base 50 homer guy this year. I agree we should wait and see how he performs next year. Giving him 10 for 250 right now wouldnt be smart.

 

there's no way he would do that. Right now, he's 10-year worth is around $350M.

 

Except it's not, because he's not a free agent, or anywhere close to being one. So he doesn't have leverage for that kind of a demand.

 

And tearing him his 3+ remaining cheap years is just not something that is ever even going to be considered much less actually happen, I don't know why people keep suggesting that.

 

I can't read Christian Yelich's mind but my guess is that if we offered him 250M in new money from his age 30 to 40 season right now he would jump all over it.

[brewerfan82]

Yelich and Giannis need to stay in Milwaukee. I think I speak for the fan base for both and can say if we lose either 1, it will cripple that team. And our hopes.

I agree with Giannis. He's only 24, coming off an MVP season, and he still looks raw. The guy is unfathomably probably going to get better in a league where one guy legitimately can make a team. He'll attract other players to the team and the Bucks will remain relevant as long as he's on the team.

 

Yelich on the other hand is already in his prime years and will be 31 when he becomes a free agent. The track record for baseball players remaining valuable into their mid-30's on huge contracts isn't pretty. Stearns pulled a rabbit out of his hat when he got Yeli going into his prime with *five* years remaining on his contract. We got him for the exact years you want a guy like that and extending him further is asking for disappointment and diminishing returns. Enjoy four MVP-calibar years and the boat load of prospects someone will give up for him in year five. The return we get for him could bring back another "Yelich" and another handful of players to usher in another window of opportunity for a team that can't afford to "buy" championships.

[Brew crew 92]

Yelich and Giannis need to stay in Milwaukee. I think I speak for the fan base for both and can say if we lose either 1, it will cripple that team. And our hopes.

Yelich is gonna be a 40 stolen base 50 homer guy this year. I agree we should wait and see how he performs next year. Giving him 10 for 250 right now wouldnt be smart.

 

When we “lose” Yelich, it’ll be by choice, and the 4-7(depending on next offseason or the following)stud prospects received along with the 4-5 from trading Hader will give Stearns what he needs to give us an even better window of championship contention.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't know where I stand on giving guys huge long-term extensions but Yelich strikes me as one that will play for a really long time and be pretty good. He's got a very lean, wiry frame and still looks like he's 17 to me. A knee can blow out at any minute but if I had to pick guys who will play well into their 30s he would be at the top of the list.

[MrTPlush]

I don't know where I stand on giving guys huge long-term extensions but Yelich strikes me as one that will play for a really long time and be pretty good. He's got a very lean, wiry frame and still looks like he's 17 to me. A knee can blow out at any minute but if I had to pick guys who will play well into their 30s he would be at the top of the list.

 

Ryan Braun was the same way...almost a spitting image at the same age as far as health and look. Then his health went down the tube. You just can’t predict it.

 

On another note I think a fair extension would be 5/$150mil for him. If you look at how free agency is shifting against guys in their 30s I don’t think it is a given he is going to get blown away with some 8-10 year deal. Well, actually, I think it is pretty much assured he isn’t getting more than 8...and probably 7 best case. Mike Trout only got through his 38 season...Yelich isn’t going to fair any better (Machado and Harper also got to 38 I believe). Mind you all those contract start at an age less than the 31 Yelich will be.

 

You could argue even that is too much. All Yelich would be risking is two years and maybe a little on the average salary. His DREAM scenario is probably managing a 7/$250mil contract or so. Assuming he continued to be one of the Top 5 players in the game every year. Any sort of decline and that number and amount of years is going to sharply decline.

 

Not saying I would do it, but 5/$150mil is the sweet spot where both sides may consider it.

[rickh150]

Yes, if the Brewers ever were to make a big commitment to a player, Yelich is the type of player to do it with. He has major fan appeal and doing so would be a big win with the fan base, regardless of his production declines in his mid-thirties.

 

Do fans really though? I mean we all obviously love Yelich A LOT...but doesn't seem he has the ungodly appeal Braun had before everything went down.

 

Yelich is even more popular than Braun. Braun had Fielder to compete with, as many loved Fielder even more than Braun.

[rickh150]

I don't know where I stand on giving guys huge long-term extensions but Yelich strikes me as one that will play for a really long time and be pretty good. He's got a very lean, wiry frame and still looks like he's 17 to me. A knee can blow out at any minute but if I had to pick guys who will play well into their 30s he would be at the top of the list.

 

And a periodical hurting back ALREADY...

[MrTPlush]

Yes, if the Brewers ever were to make a big commitment to a player, Yelich is the type of player to do it with. He has major fan appeal and doing so would be a big win with the fan base, regardless of his production declines in his mid-thirties.

 

Do fans really though? I mean we all obviously love Yelich A LOT...but doesn't seem he has the ungodly appeal Braun had before everything went down.

 

Yelich is even more popular than Braun. Braun had Fielder to compete with, as many loved Fielder even more than Braun.

 

Probably an argument for Braun being more popular. Braun was #8 in jersey sales at the end of the regular season in 2011 (ranked sales from opening day to the end of reg. season). Yelich didn't even rank Top 20 in the same timeframe for 2018. Which I find notable because not only was he arguably the favorite player on the team it was also his first year on the Brewers. You would expect an inflated amount of sales because no one had one before...as where with Braun he had been with us for years, thus, many already had a jersey. Not to mention, as you said, Braun heavily competed with Fielder for fan's hearts.

 

Of course Yelich jumped up to #8 from January 1st to opening day sales for 2019...likely fueled by the MVP award. I am guessing Braun would have also increased on his position had he not tested positive because at that point more were being burned than bought.

 

Now jersey sales aren't everything, but it is quite interesting Yelich wasn't even Top 20 despite being on a brand new team, playing like an All-Star, and then suddenly an MVP season come the end of the year.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'm gonna say there was more Braun fever at the time than there is now for Yelich. I think the big reason is that the Brewers had sucked FOREVER. They've had a modicum of success the last decade so there's some fatigue there. They drew 3 million fans in 2008, that was before they'd even made the playoffs yet. Before Ryan Braun the mere concept of a Brewers player winning MVP was comical for anyone born after 1985.

 

Braun and Fielder were transcendent players for the team that they hadn't had since Yount.