Time to extend Yelich?

[Pugger]

I love Braun as much as anyone but I wonder why the Brewers would ever lock a guy up into his mid 30’s ever again? You can find offensive production pretty easily in the OF.

 

Yah, the absolute worst part of that deal wasn't the fact it was done...but the fact they did it stupidly early just to lock in essentially what one would know to be decline years. Maybe they thought he would age well, but seemed it was mostly done to have a face of the franchise and have a more modern lifer instead of the aging Yount. Pretty much everything that could go wrong doing such a deal happened; suspension, ruined image, chronic injuries, missed time, production decline.

 

The only reason to extend Yelich is if you wanted to make him a Brewer for the rest of his career. However, doesn't really seem worth it when he didn't even start his career here and he may or may not be a HOF talent. Seems like a good way to set us up to have a bad contract/money pit.

 

You would think having a current "bad contract" on the team and an early extension like Braun's that turned sour before the first day it went into effect would shy people away from this kind of thing. I think it is too late to even get a reasonable extension similar to Braun's where it isn't breaking our small market back. Brewers simply can't afford to throw around upwards of $250mil to a guy into his later 30s.

 

If he continues to play like he has Yelich is a HOF talent and one I wouldn't mind as the face of this franchise over Braun.

[mtrebs]

I don't know why people keep talking about the Brewers historic inability to develop pitching. What do Stearns and Co have to do with Sal Bando or Doug Melvin?

 

While the old GMs’ lackluster track records of developing pitching doesn’t mean that Stearns will have similar difficulties, it does however show that developing great starting pitching isn’t easy. This is why I thought it to be foolish for a team one game away from the World Series to attempt to have 3/5 of the starting rotation be unproven. It’s a good approach for a rebuilding team, but not one that needed to just supplement to improve a few areas.

[mtrebs]

If he continues to play like he has Yelich is a HOF talent and one I wouldn't mind as the face of this franchise over Braun.

 

Yes, if the Brewers ever were to make a big commitment to a player, Yelich is the type of player to do it with. He has major fan appeal and doing so would be a big win with the fan base, regardless of his production declines in his mid-thirties.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Problem is the Brewers will never be able to afford long-term deals for stellar SP. Their best bet at having a 4-5 year window of a World Series quality rotation is hitting on several young guys that they can control for a long time. The only way to do that is throwing them into the fire.

[MrTPlush]

Yes, if the Brewers ever were to make a big commitment to a player, Yelich is the type of player to do it with. He has major fan appeal and doing so would be a big win with the fan base, regardless of his production declines in his mid-thirties.

 

Do fans really though? I mean we all obviously love Yelich A LOT...but doesn't seem he has the ungodly appeal Braun had before everything went down.

[Jopal78]

I don't know why people keep talking about the Brewers historic inability to develop pitching. What do Stearns and Co have to do with Sal Bando or Doug Melvin?

 

One way to look at it is many of the pitching coaches in the minor leagues (who must share some of the blame for the organizations inability to develop its own pitching) are holdovers from the Doug Melvin years.

 

Chris Hook jumped from being a pitching coach in the independent leagues in 2008 to AA with the Brewers in 2009 and has worked his way up to pitching coach for the major league club.

 

AAA pitching coach Fred Dabney has been a pitching coach for Milwaukee at every level of their minor leagues since joining the organization in 2004.

 

AA pitching coach Dave Chavarria has been with the Brewers organization as a pitching coach since 2012.

 

Low A pitching coach Steve Cline has been with the Brewers organization as a pitching coach since 2001.

 

Helena Pitching coach Rolando Valles has been coaching pitchers for the Brewers organization since 2014.

 

They've developed but a handful of pitchers in the last 25 years, and the GM who presumably has authority to fire any and all of the, has not only kept his predecessors coaches but has actually promoted most of them. So the lack of homegrown pitching can be distilled to: poor drafting/talent evaluation and/or poor coaching/instruction both of which fall on the GM.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Yes, if the Brewers ever were to make a big commitment to a player, Yelich is the type of player to do it with. He has major fan appeal and doing so would be a big win with the fan base, regardless of his production declines in his mid-thirties.

 

Do fans really though? I mean we all obviously love Yelich A LOT...but doesn't seem he has the ungodly appeal Braun had before everything went down.

 

People are much more skeptical of idolization nowadays. Not just in Milwaukee, everywhere.

[JimH5]

I don't know why people keep talking about the Brewers historic inability to develop pitching. What do Stearns and Co have to do with Sal Bando or Doug Melvin?

 

It's not on Stearns, but it is part of the Brewer fan experience that they have spent gobs of draft picks and money on failed pitchers. Our fandom has been stuck in the mud forever, and that is David Stearns' inheritance.

[RollieTime]

I don't know why people keep talking about the Brewers historic inability to develop pitching. What do Stearns and Co have to do with Sal Bando or Doug Melvin?

 

One way to look at it is many of the pitching coaches in the minor leagues (who must share some of the blame for the organizations inability to develop its own pitching) are holdovers from the Doug Melvin years.

 

Chris Hook jumped from being a pitching coach in the independent leagues in 2008 to AA with the Brewers in 2009 and has worked his way up to pitching coach for the major league club.

 

AAA pitching coach Fred Dabney has been a pitching coach for Milwaukee at every level of their minor leagues since joining the organization in 2004.

 

AA pitching coach Dave Chavarria has been with the Brewers organization as a pitching coach since 2012.

 

Low A pitching coach Steve Cline has been with the Brewers organization as a pitching coach since 2001.

 

Helena Pitching coach Rolando Valles has been coaching pitchers for the Brewers organization since 2014.

 

They've developed but a handful of pitchers in the last 25 years, and the GM who presumably has authority to fire any and all of the, has not only kept his predecessors coaches but has actually promoted most of them. So the lack of homegrown pitching can be distilled to: poor drafting/talent evaluation and/or poor coaching/instruction both of which fall on the GM.

 

Great post. I’m hoping that Stearns starts to turn over some of the pitching coaches in the minors that have been here for a long time. The inability to develop starting pitching for as long as we have is a major issue. We should be able to develop a solid starting pitcher more than once every 5-7 years.

[adambr2]

If he continues to play like he has Yelich is a HOF talent and one I wouldn't mind as the face of this franchise over Braun.

 

Yes, if the Brewers ever were to make a big commitment to a player, Yelich is the type of player to do it with. He has major fan appeal and doing so would be a big win with the fan base, regardless of his production declines in his mid-thirties.

 

If we are paying him 35M a year to be mediocre in his mid 30s that will not be a big win. That will be crippling.

 

Braun had every bit of the same appeal in 2011 as Yelich has now.

[homer]

I don't know why people keep talking about the Brewers historic inability to develop pitching. What do Stearns and Co have to do with Sal Bando or Doug Melvin?

 

One way to look at it is many of the pitching coaches in the minor leagues (who must share some of the blame for the organizations inability to develop its own pitching) are holdovers from the Doug Melvin years.

 

Chris Hook jumped from being a pitching coach in the independent leagues in 2008 to AA with the Brewers in 2009 and has worked his way up to pitching coach for the major league club.

 

AAA pitching coach Fred Dabney has been a pitching coach for Milwaukee at every level of their minor leagues since joining the organization in 2004.

 

AA pitching coach Dave Chavarria has been with the Brewers organization as a pitching coach since 2012.

 

Low A pitching coach Steve Cline has been with the Brewers organization as a pitching coach since 2001.

 

Helena Pitching coach Rolando Valles has been coaching pitchers for the Brewers organization since 2014.

 

They've developed but a handful of pitchers in the last 25 years, and the GM who presumably has authority to fire any and all of the, has not only kept his predecessors coaches but has actually promoted most of them. So the lack of homegrown pitching can be distilled to: poor drafting/talent evaluation and/or poor coaching/instruction both of which fall on the GM.

 

But if it's coaching then wouldn't guys become better or really good once they leave the Brewers? I don't recall too many guys getting traded or released that end up becoming good pitchers. Yamamoto was good while he was here. Miley was good while he was here. Wily Peralta has been about the same (meh). Marco Estrada was already 30+ when he left but he's been about the same guy.

 

Scouting and drafting are probably a big part of it but that could just be bad luck too.

[RollieTime]

How would people feel about a 4/$120 million contract extension for Yelich? How about a 5/$150 million contract that begins in 2022 with the club option year turning into a $30 million guarantee? Yelich may take a deal similar to that since he will be 31 at the time of his next contract if he plays his current contract out.

 

I think it may be a little early to extend Yelich. I would look to do it after the 2020 season if he has another unbelievable season. If he continues to produce at this level, I would feel comfortable extending him through his age 34 season.

 

If we were to extend Yelich, what would you feel comfortable with years wise, but also money wise in tying yourself up financially to one guy?

[rickh150]

Don't extend Yelly now, if ever. Too costly, sadly. Perhaps the next collective bargaining agreement will have more revenue sharing for teams to extend stars.

[3and2Fastball]

I don't think you can extend Yelich without a change in the method of operations by our owner. If our budget is maxed out now, and we cannot sign pitchers to top level contracts, we certainly cannot afford to extend a great player like Yelich.

[tmwiese55]

I'd say no more than tacking on 2-3 years. For price, if it's not at a team friendly number vs normal FA contracts then there isn't really an incentive to do it. For example, Trout just got 35 per and Harper/Machado got in the mid to upper 20s. Arenado lows 30s. So, I guess I'm just saying if you're paying those prices anyway then you might as well wait. You have him for a few more years so what's the rush, might as well make sure injuries or drop off don't happen. If he's willing to tack on a few years in the low to mid 20s then sure might as well look into it.

[mtrebs]

If he continues to play like he has Yelich is a HOF talent and one I wouldn't mind as the face of this franchise over Braun.

 

Yes, if the Brewers ever were to make a big commitment to a player, Yelich is the type of player to do it with. He has major fan appeal and doing so would be a big win with the fan base, regardless of his production declines in his mid-thirties.

 

If we are paying him 35M a year to be mediocre in his mid 30s that will not be a big win. That will be crippling.

 

Braun had every bit of the same appeal in 2011 as Yelich has now.

 

I agree, and I’d think most people on here would agree, that those later years would hinder the club. I do believe that to the general fan, they still see Braun as a better player than he is, based on how good he used to be, so they don’t likely see his contract as crippling. I’d guess that’s how they’d see Yelich too. Not that any of that matters as it’s all up to Stearns and company.

[mtrebs]

Yes, if the Brewers ever were to make a big commitment to a player, Yelich is the type of player to do it with. He has major fan appeal and doing so would be a big win with the fan base, regardless of his production declines in his mid-thirties.

 

Do fans really though? I mean we all obviously love Yelich A LOT...but doesn't seem he has the ungodly appeal Braun had before everything went down.

 

This is interesting. From what I see, Yelich’s appeal today is no less than that of Braun in his early years.

[Lathund]

I'd say no more than tacking on 2-3 years. For price, if it's not at a team friendly number vs normal FA contracts then there isn't really an incentive to do it. For example, Trout just got 35 per and Harper/Machado got in the mid to upper 20s. Arenado lows 30s. So, I guess I'm just saying if you're paying those prices anyway then you might as well wait. You have him for a few more years so what's the rush, might as well make sure injuries or drop off don't happen. If he's willing to tack on a few years in the low to mid 20s then sure might as well look into it.

 

The "rush" is that with an early extension there's a chance to get a discount, at the cost of the risk that an extension might look bad when closer to the expiry of the contract. If you wait until his last year and he's still an MVP-level player, then there's no discount to be had, and probably no deal at all to be made before free agency. So the "rush" is that if we want to keep Yelich beyond 2022 (More realistically beyond 2021), an extension needs to happen relatively soon. There needs to be a decision made soon between whether to try to keep Yelich, or to look to trade him in (probably) 2021. I don't see the Brewers paying market value for a 30 yo Yelich, and even if they do; should they?

 

A market value extension close to free agency is in almost every scenario a bad idea. An early extension at a discount could be a good thing, but carries a lot of risk. I think perhaps what has the best chance of getting a few more years of Yelich without too much risk would be to tear up the remainder of the contract, pay Yelich more in those years (Instead of $12.5m, $14m and $15m say he gets $20m) and in exchange for getting more money sooner try to get a discount in the later years, or get away with fewer years. Though I don't recall that type of thing happening very often (If at all) so probably not likely to happen.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't think you can extend Yelich without a change in the method of operations by our owner. If our budget is maxed out now, and we cannot sign pitchers to top level contracts, we certainly cannot afford to extend a great player like Yelich.

 

These two things don't have a whole lot to do with each other. Any long-term contract is full of deferred costs. You just sign it and figure it out every year as you go. But this year's budget being maxed (which may or may not be true) has nothing to do with Yelich getting a huge deal for the next decade. Braun, Moose, and Grandal make a lot and all come off soon. If they really wanted to offer Yelich another Braun-type deal, they definitely could.

[tmwiese55]

You pretty much said what I said. If you do it now it's for the discount, if he doesn't give it then no rush

[Brew crew 92]

3 more years of cost-controlled Yelich is more valuable as a trading chip than 7 years with a high salary at the end.

 

His contract/performance is among the most valuable in baseball.

 

The Brewers have Ryan Braun right in front of them to use an example of what a long term extension can look like.

 

Unless Yelich or his agent start making noise about dissatisfaction, I would hold back on extending him. So much can happen between now and the end of his deal.

 

Perfectly stated.

 

1.) why extend when the first year of said extension is the first year of past prime Yelich?

 

2.) imo, Yelich will need to be traded this offseason or next year’s deadline or next offseason, depending on our window of title contention. I believe with the right moves and payroll, we can still win this year and next. But if Stearns feels this team can’t win a title then he should Trade not just Yelich, but Hader as well this offseason. The prospect haul we would get for those two alone would give us the best farm in baseball overnight.

[JackNicholson1974]

Better idea. Enjoy the ride, play to win, let him walk at the end of the deal and let his 30 million dollar a year contract be someone elses problem. Why the heck are we always so quick to deal away all of our players? He is a generational talent. Keep him here on this wonderful deal, its the reason we traded for him in the first place.

[adambr2]

Better idea. Enjoy the ride, play to win, let him walk at the end of the deal and let his 30 million dollar a year contract be someone elses problem. Why the heck are we always so quick to deal away all of our players? He is a generational talent. Keep him here on this wonderful deal, its the reason we traded for him in the first place.

 

Because losing that big of an asset for nothing at all is devastating to the near future after he does leave, particularly for a small market team.

[TigerUppercut]

Blow it all up? Rebuild the system? Seriously? A year ago, we were a game from the World Series. This year has been a massive disappointment, somewhat due to injury, somewhat due to regression, but you guys are willing to toss in the towel, admit defeat, and start over? What's more likely? This team, which is virtually the same as last year's team, massively over-performed last year, or they have massively under-performed this year? I choose to accept the second option. Catcher has been massively upgraded in the offseason. You don't get many catchers that will hit 30 bombs.

 

So we get rid of Yelich. Get "big time starting pitcher prospects in return." The Brewers have had "big time starting pitching prospects" before. Have they shown the ability to develop top tier pitching? Wily Peralta was a big time prospect. Where's he now? Ok, so we got snake bit with Nelson's shoulder injury. But either we play to win with some pretty good pieces, make some smart decisions in the offseason to enhance them, and keep trying to get to the Series with our window open, or we're just small timers constantly rebuilding every few years.

 

We had one of the top farm systems in baseball, got Braun, Fielder, Weeks, Hart, Hardy and Gallardo to the Majors. We made noise in the playoffs exactly one time with all that talent. Won one division title. Now, we've added Yelich, Cain, Moustakas and Grandal. Cain has been down this year, injury/regression. Yelich, Moose and Grandal were all All Stars. Yelich won the MVP last year, and is one of three guys with a legit chance to win it this year. Are we sure we want to dump them all again, and start over?

 

If the Brewers are just going to be glorified rebuilders the rest of my life, I'll go find another team to cheer for. I've seen this same BS for 40 years. It's possible to win it all without a massive payroll. Look at Minnesota this year. They are not only crushing the ball, they've got some very good pitching. Jake Odorizzi was an All Star this year. Remember him? Jose Berrios and Odorizzi were both All Stars. Both have 145+ ERA+.

 

The problem is that Milwaukee has completely dropped the ball with some very questionable decisions. I don't know how the front office can make such great moves like the ones I just described, and then let Wade Miley go. He cost $4.5 million this season, a real bargain. And he's got a 2.4 WAR with the Astros this season. He's 7-4 with a 3.32 ERA. He was great in Milwaukee last year. Why do you let cheap, effective veteran pitchers go? Gio Gonzalez was great with us last year, too. Brewers granted him free agency. Fortunately, he was available when the Yankees dropped him. We got him back, and we're paying him $2 million. He'll be back in a week or two, and having him in the rotation should be a big boost.

 

The Brewers put too much faith in Jimmy Nelson's recovery, and now it's biting them in the rear. They had no real contingency plan in place. And some of the team's roster management this year has been questionable, to say the least. How does Tyler Saladino continue to get playing time?

 

Nobody is running away with this division. As poorly as we've played, we still have a shot at it. Guys like Aguilar and Thames have been hitting much better after dismal starts. Hiura is a huge boost to the offense.

 

I'm not throwing in the towel. No way.

 

I apologize in advance to the Stache because this post was incredible. That said, it's worth noting that 95% of Brewerfan.net crapped all over the idea of acquiring Odirizzi in the off-season and crapped even harder when the Twins grabbed him. Exhibit A-Z why fans are fans.

[Warning Track Power]

Currently, Christian Yelich is signed through 2022 for $31.5 million. What if the Brewers were to approach him and offer Christian $150m worth of new money and tack on 3 additional years to the contract? Essentially his 3 year $31.5m deal becomes a 6 year $180m deal and extends him through his age 32 season.

 

Putting myself in his shoes and seeing what is occurring with FAs around the 30-31 age, I would be inclined to take it. Is it the $330m or $300m that Harper and Machado are making? No. However, they were FAs at the age of 26 and not 30.