Are the Brewers Closer to a Rebuild than a Title Contender?

[Thurston Fluff]

Why do we have to buy or sell? Isn't there a better argument to be made to just be wall flowers? We are not in position prospect wise to do what we did last season. We are not going to get much in return for our rental veterans. So why not just stand pat and hope the division stays within reach and our players start to play up to their potential?

[wntrtxn21]

I would take a proactive "wait and see" approach. The next two weeks is the make or break for this year. If they hold at .500 or better, go out be buyers. On the other hand, if they finish the next 14 days like I fear they might, then sell. Not a rebuild, more of a retooling.

 

The only problem with waiting two weeks is the trading deadline is July 31. If Stearns is selling there won't be much time to make a good deal for whomever leaves, and if he is buying most teams will already have moved their players. I like your idea, but I think after this week Stearns has to make up his mind. Buyers or Sellers.

[pacopete4]

I keep seeing that we won’t get much but what did Lucroy fetch us when we traded him? Sure was a nice haul. Not sure why Grandal wouldn’t get us a nice piece or pieces for us to use going forward either on our own team or trading away for another piece. Heck, the only reason we probably have Yelich is because we got Brinson in that deal.

 

We also traded away Lind for a guy like Peralta and two other lottery picks. While that was in the offseason, Moose could very well fetch us an interesting return.

 

And we all saw that Homer Bailey somehow just was trade-able so I’m sure Chacin could find his way elsewhere too.

 

 

I would rather get something for these guys than to circle the drain for another couple of months with what we are seeing on the field. Heck, it’s not like we didn’t win the division a year ago with Pina and Shaw manning C and 3B anyways.

[tmwiese55]

Yes I continue to see how we won't get much for our rentals. Yes somehow we have to give up the farm for a rental relief pitcher. Seems counterintuitive...

[adambr2]

I keep seeing that we won’t get much but what did Lucroy fetch us when we traded him? Sure was a nice haul. Not sure why Grandal wouldn’t get us a nice piece or pieces for us to use going forward either on our own team or trading away for another piece. Heck, the only reason we probably have Yelich is because we got Brinson in that deal.

 

There were two major differences between Grandal and Lucroy both in Lucroy's favor. Lucroy was under control for 1.5 seasons on a far below market value contract. Grandal is strictly a rental on a market value contract.

 

Not saying that Grandal couldn't fetch something decent but those things added a lot of value to Lucroy in a trade, plus the fact that we included our closer at the time (Jeffress) in the deal. So I just wouldn't expect anything close to that return.

[wntrtxn21]

Rather than sell I'd like to see Stearns try and re-sign Grandal (4/$70M -- 3/$51M with a $3M buyout after 3 years. 4th year at $19M) and Moose (4/$50 -- 3/$36M with a $2M buyout after 3rd year. 4th year $14M). I have no idea if that gets it done, but who knows. Chacin $6.75M -- Nelson $3.5M -- Albers $2.5M -- Perez $2.5M -- Anderson $8.5M -- Thames $7.5M -- Claudio $1.3M -- Jeffress $4.3M; all or most of them will be gone. Braun's contract is up after 2020. Re-signing Grandal and Moose would add only a minimal amount to the payroll of this year. If Shaw can truely come back to what he was, Moose could go too and free up more money for pitching. Nelson (if they see a clear cut path back to being an MLB pitcher) or Anderson will likely be kept for pitching depth.

[homer]

Rather than sell I'd like to see Stearns try and re-sign Grandal (4/$70M -- 3/$51M with a $3M buyout after 3 years. 4th year at $19M) and Moose (4/$50 -- 3/$36M with a $2M buyout after 3rd year. 4th year $14M). I have no idea if that gets it done, but who knows. Chacin $6.75M -- Nelson $3.5M -- Albers $2.5M -- Perez $2.5M -- Anderson $8.5M -- Thames $7.5M -- Claudio $1.3M -- Jeffress $4.3M; all or most of them will be gone. Braun's contract is up after 2020. Re-signing Grandal and Moose would add only a minimal amount to the payroll of this year. If Shaw can truely come back to what he was, Moose could go too and free up more money for pitching. Nelson (if they see a clear cut path back to being an MLB pitcher) or Anderson will likely be kept for pitching depth.

 

Brewers could trade both Grandal and Moustakas and then resign them in the offseason. Yankees did just that with Chapman. Odds of that happening are very slim though.

[trwi7]

Rather than sell I'd like to see Stearns try and re-sign Grandal (4/$70M -- 3/$51M with a $3M buyout after 3 years. 4th year at $19M) and Moose (4/$50 -- 3/$36M with a $2M buyout after 3rd year. 4th year $14M). I have no idea if that gets it done, but who knows. Chacin $6.75M -- Nelson $3.5M -- Albers $2.5M -- Perez $2.5M -- Anderson $8.5M -- Thames $7.5M -- Claudio $1.3M -- Jeffress $4.3M; all or most of them will be gone. Braun's contract is up after 2020. Re-signing Grandal and Moose would add only a minimal amount to the payroll of this year. If Shaw can truely come back to what he was, Moose could go too and free up more money for pitching. Nelson (if they see a clear cut path back to being an MLB pitcher) or Anderson will likely be kept for pitching depth.

 

Sounds good in theory but Cain gets a raise, Yelich gets a raise, Moose on that contract is a raise, Davies gets a raise, Guerra gets a raise, Aguilar gets a raise, Arcia gets a raise and you need replacements for the guys you're getting rid of. So you're basically bringing the same team back next year.

[homer]

Rather than sell I'd like to see Stearns try and re-sign Grandal (4/$70M -- 3/$51M with a $3M buyout after 3 years. 4th year at $19M) and Moose (4/$50 -- 3/$36M with a $2M buyout after 3rd year. 4th year $14M). I have no idea if that gets it done, but who knows. Chacin $6.75M -- Nelson $3.5M -- Albers $2.5M -- Perez $2.5M -- Anderson $8.5M -- Thames $7.5M -- Claudio $1.3M -- Jeffress $4.3M; all or most of them will be gone. Braun's contract is up after 2020. Re-signing Grandal and Moose would add only a minimal amount to the payroll of this year. If Shaw can truely come back to what he was, Moose could go too and free up more money for pitching. Nelson (if they see a clear cut path back to being an MLB pitcher) or Anderson will likely be kept for pitching depth.

 

Sounds good in theory but Cain gets a raise, Yelich gets a raise, Moose on that contract is a raise, Davies gets a raise, Guerra gets a raise, Aguilar gets a raise, Arcia gets a raise and you need replacements for the guys you're getting rid of. So you're basically bringing the same team back next year.

 

http://www.quickmeme.com/img/da/da43355c70ef3bbe354d26ccd0e09e0bd28f3afccb0ec699a8327d07308a590f.jpg

[Brewcrewin07]

I'm beginning to think the Brewers philosophy should be to spend big in FA on two TOR arms, and fill in the offense the best you can on cheap options. They will never grow stud pitchers in the farm, and the only way they will ever get top Pitchers is to buy them. Then sign cheap veteran bats where needed, and go with it. You've got Hiura cheap for a number of years, Yelich is here for a couple more, Shaw, Aguilar..you're almost half way there already.

[brewmann04]

that not the brewers way to buy starting pitchers they did make those trades for CC and Grienke but don't see DS making that kind of move or should he

[Thurston Fluff]

I'm beginning to think the Brewers philosophy should be to spend big in FA on two TOR arms, and fill in the offense the best you can on cheap options. They will never grow stud pitchers in the farm, and the only way they will ever get top Pitchers is to buy them. Then sign cheap veteran bats where needed, and go with it. You've got Hiura cheap for a number of years, Yelich is here for a couple more, Shaw, Aguilar..you're almost half way there already.

 

Ben Sheets seemed ok. There were others who where pretty much developed but got derailed. Cal Eldred and Jimmy Nelson come to mind. Even if there were none what does the sins of the past have to do with the present? It isn't like it's the same people running everything.

As far as spending big on TOR starters; the Cubs did that and they suck just about as bad as we do. It just cost them about 50 million every year forever to get those two extra wins in mid July.

[yourout]

[Jaylyn]

This team and DS are in a difficult position, not good enough to go out and acquire player X to put them over the top. Not bad enough, like the Royals, to start selling now. Looking at the schedule, with the Braves, D-Backs and Reds I expect them to go 5-5 entering in the Cubs series. If they can sweep or split the Cubs series, I would buy light and hope the team can go on a streak like last year. If they get swept or can only pull out one, like I anticipate, I'm selling. If the worst case scenario plays out. Yelich, Hiura, Woodruff, Peralta, Houser and Hader are off the table. Everyone else can be discussed and if I'm DS, I would try to create a feeding frenzy beginning 6 pm July 28. Now I'm depressed! Last year ruined me!

[owbc]

In terms of actual talent I think the 2019 team is comparable to 2018. Some great moves were made to retool and the Opening Day roster was pretty good. They won a bunch of games early on.

 

But in retrospect the 2019 title chase ended when Knebel went down. Nobody has filled those shoes. Nothing of value from Jimmy Nelson. Still no Brent Suter. The rest of the surprises and disappointments mostly even out. The offensive flaws could probably have been overcome, but the bullpen carried a disproportionate weight in 2018 and it is a disproportionate burden in 2019.

 

At this point a turnaround would be nothing short of a miracle.

 

To me a true "rebuild" means trading Yelich so the answer to the thread title is no.

[Jopal78]

After burning out whatever prospect capital they had close to the major leagues to acquire Yelich and others, I don’t think there’s much option but to completely empty the minor leagues of talent to go all in this year until this core of players breaks up.

 

Rental players like Moustakas and Grandal typically aren’t going to bring the minor league talent that could be filling a hole on the Milwaukee roster in 2020 or even 2021, and there’s nobody in their system that projects to be an impact player who will be ready in a year or less. As a result the big league team is stuck spinning its wheels with too much talent to justify a full year down, and not enough talent on hand to have anything more than an outside shot at the 2nd wild card.

 

Last year was so much fun as a fan, it would be a shame if it was yet another outlier for a franchise primarily associated with futility and mediocrity.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

It's annoying to me that we can only do this once a decade while other comparable markets are able to have 3-4 year windows or sometimes longer.

[BarneyStinston]

What's a comparable market? Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Cincinatti, Tampa Bay, Minnesota? Any of those teams have sustained success lately?

[Pugger]

In terms of actual talent I think the 2019 team is comparable to 2018. Some great moves were made to retool and the Opening Day roster was pretty good. They won a bunch of games early on.

 

But in retrospect the 2019 title chase ended when Knebel went down. Nobody has filled those shoes. Nothing of value from Jimmy Nelson. Still no Brent Suter. The rest of the surprises and disappointments mostly even out. The offensive flaws could probably have been overcome, but the bullpen carried a disproportionate weight in 2018 and it is a disproportionate burden in 2019.

 

At this point a turnaround would be nothing short of a miracle.

 

To me a true "rebuild" means trading Yelich so the answer to the thread title is no.

 

If our problems are no Knebel, Jimmy Nelson imploding and still no Brent Suter, what will this team look like in 2020 with Knebel and Suter back and the rest of the roster almost the same? This season has been a major disappointment but I don't think we are that far away from being a contender again.

[Jopal78]

What's a comparable market? Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Cincinatti, Tampa Bay, Minnesota? Any of those teams have sustained success lately?

Quote

 

Pittsburgh qualified for the playoffs: 2013, 2014, 2015

 

Cincinnati qualified for the playoffs: 2010, 2012, 2013

 

Kansas City qualified for the playoffs: 2014, 2015

 

Minnesota qualified for the playoffs: 2010, 2017

 

Tampa Bay qualified for the playoffs: 2010, 2011, 2013

 

One could certainly argue that the Brewers are the worst organization among the group of franchises you cited (and frankly based on results you could argue that they are among the absolute worst franchises in major league baseball). While the Brewers and Twins have the same amount of playoff appearances this decade, the Twins have been to the playoffs seven times since 2000. Like Milwaukee, Kansas City has been to the playoffs just twice in the last decade but both times they won the pennant and came away with one world series title.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

What's a comparable market? Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Cincinatti, Tampa Bay, Minnesota? Any of those teams have sustained success lately?

 

Kansas City went to the World Series two years in a row. Tampa had a 6-year stretch of five 90+ wiin seasons and an 84-win season. Minnesota was in the playoffs 6 times from 2002-10. Cleveland is probably going to win 90 for the fourth straight year. Pittsburgh and Cincy both had sustained playoff appearance this decade. Weird post.

 

So yes. Comparable towns have done a much better job than the Brewers, who get in once and then fall apart.

[owbc]

The idea that Pittsburgh or Cincinnati has been more successful than Milwaukee is insane. Who cares about a one-and-done Wild Card loss or a LDS sweep?

 

The Brewers have more playoff wins in the last 10 years than every one of those teams except Kansas City.

 

There’s nothing uniquely bad about the Brewers, they are dealing with the same rigged economic system as the rest of these teams.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The idea that Pittsburgh or Cincinnati has been more successful than Milwaukee is insane. Who cares about a one-and-done Wild Card loss or a LDS sweep?

 

The Brewers have more playoff wins in the last 10 years than every one of those teams except Kansas City.

 

There’s nothing uniquely bad about the Brewers, they are dealing with the same rigged economic system as the rest of these teams.

 

I think "insane" quite over the top. I would say the Brewers in 2011 and 2018 had better teams than a lot of them. But it's an indisputable fact. Almost all of the teams have been able to get to the postseason and give themselves more shots than the Brewers. They've haven't made it consecutively in nearly 40 years. That's really bad. That was the original statement. They load up once, don't close the deal, and take 8 years off.

 

Opinions may vary but I would love to win 90+ games 4-5 years in a row. That would be a lot of fun for me.

[nate82]

The Padres, Mariners and the Rangers are some rather pathetic franchises also. The Mariners have never made it to the World Series and haven't been in the playoffs since 2001.

[pacopete4]

With the way baseball is set up that just might not be realistic for the Brewers to do unless a lot of luck is on their side. Heck, year ago I thought a ton of luck was on their side just to do what they did.