Are the Brewers Closer to a Rebuild than a Title Contender?

[trwi7]

 

I'm also showing that it's not just one bad month like you said. At best they've been mediocre for a vast majority of the season.

No you didn't show that at all. You showed that the one bad month still looks bad when you add a 57 game stretch where they played over .500 with a positive run differential. You literally posted complete nonsense and you are still defending it. Trying to say that it isn't just one bad month and then adding a sample where the team was above average in both record and run differential is just downright weird. Before this bad month literally nobody thought the team was playing poorly and the stats told you they weren't either, it is a one month bad stretch.

 

You said a bad month doesn't mean they can't compete. I show that after a 7-1 start they have gone 41-45, you then add your own examples showing the Brewers going one game under and one game over .500 as examples that they can compete. That is a pretty damn low bar to set that basically .500 can be considered "competing." Even in that 7-1 stretch to start the season which included going 5-0 in one run games (not something that's sustainable over a full season), their high water mark after that was 10 games over .500 had them going 32-28 with a +7 run differential.

 

So yeah, one bad month doesn't mean they can't compete but one bad month with a bunch of mediocre months means they probably can't and even if they can, with two of our best players being free agents and a not great farm system to get help what exactly is the end goal for the season? Hope the Cubs continue to be mediocre and maybe win the division with 85 games or something? Try to win the wildcard with 83 wins and hope you can advance to the DS and then maybe win a series against a team that's better than you? Doesn't seem like a great plan.

[82brewcrew82]

 

I'm also showing that it's not just one bad month like you said. At best they've been mediocre for a vast majority of the season.

No you didn't show that at all. You showed that the one bad month still looks bad when you add a 57 game stretch where they played over .500 with a positive run differential. You literally posted complete nonsense and you are still defending it. Trying to say that it isn't just one bad month and then adding a sample where the team was above average in both record and run differential is just downright weird. Before this bad month literally nobody thought the team was playing poorly and the stats told you they weren't either, it is a one month bad stretch.

 

You said a bad month doesn't mean they can't compete. I show that after a 7-1 start they have gone 41-45, you then add your own examples showing the Brewers going one game under and one game over .500 as examples that they can compete. That is a pretty damn low bar to set that basically .500 can be considered "competing." Even in that 7-1 stretch to start the season which included going 5-0 in one run games (not something that's sustainable over a full season), their high water mark after that was 10 games over .500 had them going 32-28 with a +7 run differential.

 

So yeah, one bad month doesn't mean they can't compete but one bad month with a bunch of mediocre months means they probably can't and even if they can, with two of our best players being free agents and a not great farm system to get help what exactly is the end goal for the season? Hope the Cubs continue to be mediocre and maybe win the division with 85 games or something? Try to win the wildcard with 83 wins and hope you can advance to the DS and then maybe win a series against a team that's better than you? Doesn't seem like a great plan.

This is spot on. They did have another decent stretch during the early part of May that resulted in a positive run differential but they haven't played to that level since and haven't had a positive run differential in any other month. There are plenty of arguments our there trying to explain how this team is something other than middling but they all fall apart. They just aren't very good. They aren't horribly bad, but they aren't very good.

[trwi7]

The stats he quoted do not say what he claimed at all, it is simple math and his math doesn't add up.

 

41-45 over the last 86 games after a 7-1 start. Please tell me what the math means, oh wise one. Even if you want to throw out the last month they were still 45-39 heading into July which means for over 90% of the season they have been a .500 team.

[trwi7]

If we play 50 games with a .600 winning percentage and a+100 run differential and then play 25 games with a .200 winning percentage and a -100 run differential you can't say we have sucked for 75 games. We have sucked for 25 games.

 

Also, nobody has said this.

[homer]

The fact that theyve played poorly against bad teams is disconcerting. I think if they had Grandal and Moose under contract for next season I'd feel differently about selling . I'm pretty close to throwing in the towel on this year. Things could turn around quickly however...they could win six in a row quite easily.

[adambr2]

If anything, they will do a soft rebuild, selling off the rental and short-term pieces. Then next year they can build around Yelich, Woodruff and Hader. There are enough long-term pieces in place that I highly, highly doubt you'll see a complete teardown.

 

I think the soft rebuild is a pretty reasonable idea. Sell off your rentals, and you've got a big weapon coming back in 2020 in Knebel, presumably. If you go that route, I think you stretch Burnes out, stick him in the MLB rotation, and stick with him there for 2019 no matter what happens. I'm less sold on Peralta and Houser. I think these are pen guys who are going to be more successful in that role.

 

I wouldn't trade Davies unless you're blown away. I'm really not that high on him, but I can't deny he's been effective, and we're not really in a position to trade away effective starters right now. I don't know what you can expect from Jimmy Nelson. I think you have to go into 2020 expecting nothing from him, perhaps even being non-tendered, sadly.

 

But, assuming you can get Burnes turned around (he's too promising not to at some point, hopefully), you're relatively set at 4 rotation spots with Woodruff, Davies, Burnes and Anderson. I would be fine with some combination of Gio and maybe even Suter the rest of the year, then you probably look to upgrade one spot in the offseason.

[TexasCheesehead]

I swear this forum has the biggest pessimisists in baseball. You go one game short of the World Series and are in a title run the next year with pretty much your exact same roster, then hit a bump and it’s time to rebuild. I can’t handle some of you.

[clancyphile]

If anything, they will do a soft rebuild, selling off the rental and short-term pieces. Then next year they can build around Yelich, Woodruff and Hader. There are enough long-term pieces in place that I highly, highly doubt you'll see a complete teardown.

 

I think the soft rebuild is a pretty reasonable idea. Sell off your rentals, and you've got a big weapon coming back in 2020 in Knebel, presumably. If you go that route, I think you stretch Burnes out, stick him in the MLB rotation, and stick with him there for 2019 no matter what happens. I'm less sold on Peralta and Houser. I think these are pen guys who are going to be more successful in that role.

 

I wouldn't trade Davies unless you're blown away. I'm really not that high on him, but I can't deny he's been effective, and we're not really in a position to trade away effective starters right now. I don't know what you can expect from Jimmy Nelson. I think you have to go into 2020 expecting nothing from him, perhaps even being non-tendered, sadly.

 

But, assuming you can get Burnes turned around (he's too promising not to at some point, hopefully), you're relatively set at 4 rotation spots with Woodruff, Davies, Burnes and Anderson. I would be fine with some combination of Gio and maybe even Suter the rest of the year, then you probably look to upgrade one spot in the offseason.

 

Whether "soft rebuild" or "staying in" happens depends on whether Gio, Grandal, and Moustakas are interested in extending with the Brewers. If Grandal and at least one other player are, then you go for the brass ring in 2020-2021. If you can't get Grandal, or Grandal is the only one, then do the soft rebuild.

[adambr2]

I swear this forum has the biggest pessimisists in baseball. You go one game short of the World Series and are in a title run the next year with pretty much your exact same roster, then hit a bump and it’s time to rebuild. I can’t handle some of you.

 

The feeling is getting to be mutual for many, I'm sure.

[turnbow59]

I swear this forum has the biggest pessimisists in baseball. You go one game short of the World Series and are in a title run the next year with pretty much your exact same roster, then hit a bump and it’s time to rebuild. I can’t handle some of you.

 

Zero championships in 50 years will do that to you.

[JohnBriggs12]

Before they back up the bus, they need to fire the pitching coach. If that doesn't work, then maybe Counsell goes too.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I swear this forum has the biggest pessimisists in baseball. You go one game short of the World Series and are in a title run the next year with pretty much your exact same roster, then hit a bump and it’s time to rebuild. I can’t handle some of you.

 

This is disingenuous. The team has massive problems with its pitching and a troublesome lack of farm talent. Very little of which has been able to jump to the majors. Title contenders is extremely generous. They've been mediocre all year. Yeah it's reasonable that they bounce back next season, but the talk of a rebuild isn't crazy talk.

[JohnBriggs12]

I swear this forum has the biggest pessimisists in baseball. You go one game short of the World Series and are in a title run the next year with pretty much your exact same roster, then hit a bump and it’s time to rebuild. I can’t handle some of you.

 

This is disingenuous. The team has massive problems with its pitching and a troublesome lack of farm talent. Very little of which has been able to jump to the majors. Title contenders is extremely generous. They've been mediocre all year. Yeah it's reasonable that they bounce back next season, but the talk of a rebuild isn't crazy talk.

 

Their AAA team is 22 games over .500, and the same pitchers that are carrying horrendous ERA's in the majors this year are lights out in the hitter friendly PCL. I get it's a big jump, but we've seen these guys stuff and it's major league quality. The difference just could be the quality of communication between the pitching/bullpen coach and the pitchers.

[JohnBriggs12]

I swear this forum has the biggest pessimisists in baseball. You go one game short of the World Series and are in a title run the next year with pretty much your exact same roster, then hit a bump and it’s time to rebuild. I can’t handle some of you.

 

This is disingenuous. The team has massive problems with its pitching and a troublesome lack of farm talent. Very little of which has been able to jump to the majors. Title contenders is extremely generous. They've been mediocre all year. Yeah it's reasonable that they bounce back next season, but the talk of a rebuild isn't crazy talk.

 

Their AAA team is 22 games over .500, and the same pitchers that are carrying horrendous ERA's in the majors this year are lights out in the hitter friendly PCL. I get it's a big jump, but we've seen these guys stuff and it's major league quality. The difference just could be the quality of communication between the pitching/bullpen coach and the pitchers.

[Pugger]

I swear this forum has the biggest pessimisists in baseball. You go one game short of the World Series and are in a title run the next year with pretty much your exact same roster, then hit a bump and it’s time to rebuild. I can’t handle some of you.

 

Brewer fans have to be the most pessimistic bunch around. I suppose this is because we never won anything in our history to speak of but to say the season is over is a tad premature IMO. Our starters haven't been dreadful. We are getting hits but still striking out too much and not getting hits when we have runners in scoring position. Our biggest issue right now is the pen. Outside of Hader who is truly reliable? Burns has to go back to AAA and work out his issues. He has great stuff but what good is it if he can't put the ball where he wants to?

[PeaveyFury]

I don't think the season is over, but they're down to just 2.5 weeks to decide whether they buy or sell. The worst thing they can be is stuck in the middle, so hopefully for everyone they rip off a 8 of 10-game winning streak or something like that.

[Brew crew 92]

What are we.... 2 or 3 games out of the WC and division? We are a very good team that can hardly play worse. We are getting reinforcements (bullpen) soon.

 

Exactly, bullpen reinforcements are exactly what this team needs to be able to win the central.

 

I’d do the following with the aforementioned pen reinforcements:

 

Trade Chacín for prospects.

Trade Grandal for prospects

 

Gio replaces Chacín.

Freitas replaces Grandal

 

Don’t need Chacín with Gio/Peralta

Freitas can hit and defend, less than 100 ab’s At .214 in ML not enough to judge, last 2 years .950+ ops 500 ab’s, .450+ on base telling, non K bat too. At least he gets a real shot to show us what he can do.

 

At least one of the 2 pen reinforcements should be controlled past this year, but hoping for both.

[Fear The Chorizo]

They need to be among the handful of teams who take a wait and see approach on buying/selling for the next ~10 games - if they play well and rattle off a stretch of winning baseball with the guys they have, it's worth bolstering the roster for the stretch run (particularly bullpen). If the guys on the roster right now can't get it done and the team continues its fade in the standings, then DS has to switch course and see what he can get for guys like Grandal, Moose, Albers, Davies, Chacin, Anderson, Thames, etc to try and bolster the farm. It wouldn't be a total firesale, but it would be a roster retooling in hopes of getting a jump on the offseason to give younger guys more opportunities to solidify roster spots for 2020.

 

I anticipate a flurry of trade activity starting around July 24/25 for many teams, including the Brewers. There are too many NL clubs within a couple games of a playoff berth to suddenly have them all become buyers or sellers. On paper the Brewers are talented enough to still be considered a playoff club, but if the onfield results don't match what's on paper they can't just sit on their hands.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I swear this forum has the biggest pessimisists in baseball. You go one game short of the World Series and are in a title run the next year with pretty much your exact same roster, then hit a bump and it’s time to rebuild. I can’t handle some of you.

 

This is disingenuous. The team has massive problems with its pitching and a troublesome lack of farm talent. Very little of which has been able to jump to the majors. Title contenders is extremely generous. They've been mediocre all year. Yeah it's reasonable that they bounce back next season, but the talk of a rebuild isn't crazy talk.

 

Their AAA team is 22 games over .500, and the same pitchers that are carrying horrendous ERA's in the majors this year are lights out in the hitter friendly PCL. I get it's a big jump, but we've seen these guys stuff and it's major league quality. The difference just could be the quality of communication between the pitching/bullpen coach and the pitchers.

 

Color my skeptical but I don't think Chris Hook is the reason Corbin Burnes is as effective as I would be. The win-loss record of our AAA team is about as important to me as Lorenzo Cain buying new shoes to run faster. Those teams don't exist to win games. That they are that successful and our MLB is meh would just make me think it's got a lot of AAAA players. Pumpkin Saladino was tearing the cover off the ball.

 

Yeah some of those guys do have stuff that is MLB quality, for sure. But they're not playing like that and it's not really an uncommon thing for prospects. That's the problem for a lot of guys who never make it in the majors.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

They need to be among the handful of teams who take a wait and see approach on buying/selling for the next ~10 games - if they play well and rattle off a stretch of winning baseball with the guys they have, it's worth bolstering the roster for the stretch run (particularly bullpen). If the guys on the roster right now can't get it done and the team continues its fade in the standings, then DS has to switch course and see what he can get for guys like Grandal, Moose, Albers, Davies, Chacin, Anderson, Thames, etc to try and bolster the farm. It wouldn't be a total firesale, but it would be a roster retooling in hopes of getting a jump on the offseason to give younger guys more opportunities to solidify roster spots for 2020.

 

I anticipate a flurry of trade activity starting around July 24/25 for many teams, including the Brewers. There are too many NL clubs within a couple games of a playoff berth to suddenly have them all become buyers or sellers. On paper the Brewers are talented enough to still be considered a playoff club, but if the onfield results don't match what's on paper they can't just sit on their hands.

 

Yeah. I agree with those that want a very strong positive or negative trend. The worst position to be in, will be this same .500 ball and a game out or tied for a WC spot on July 25. You don't want to "buy" with such a mediocre team but can you sell Moose with an actual chance at the playoffs?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

What are we.... 2 or 3 games out of the WC and division? We are a very good team that can hardly play worse. We are getting reinforcements (bullpen) soon.

 

Exactly, bullpen reinforcements are exactly what this team needs to be able to win the central.

 

I’d do the following with the aforementioned pen reinforcements:

 

Trade Chacín for prospects.

Trade Grandal for prospects

 

Gio replaces Chacín.

Freitas replaces Grandal

 

Don’t need Chacín with Gio/Peralta

Freitas can hit and defend, less than 100 ab’s At .214 in ML not enough to judge, last 2 years .950+ ops 500 ab’s, .450+ on base telling, non K bat too. At least he gets a real shot to show us what he can do.

 

At least one of the 2 pen reinforcements should be controlled past this year, but hoping for both.

 

So you want to go for it and win the Central, and deal off the team's All-Star catcher and a solid starter? Umm, teams don't do this. You decide if you're a buyer or not, and make moves accordingly. They aren't going to make "buy" moves, and then turn around and trade away Chacin and Grandal.

[pacopete4]

What are we.... 2 or 3 games out of the WC and division? We are a very good team that can hardly play worse. We are getting reinforcements (bullpen) soon.

 

Exactly, bullpen reinforcements are exactly what this team needs to be able to win the central.

 

I’d do the following with the aforementioned pen reinforcements:

 

Trade Chacín for prospects.

Trade Grandal for prospects

 

Gio replaces Chacín.

Freitas replaces Grandal

 

Don’t need Chacín with Gio/Peralta

Freitas can hit and defend, less than 100 ab’s At .214 in ML not enough to judge, last 2 years .950+ ops 500 ab’s, .450+ on base telling, non K bat too. At least he gets a real shot to show us what he can do.

 

At least one of the 2 pen reinforcements should be controlled past this year, but hoping for both.

 

So you want to go for it and win the Central, and deal off the team's All-Star catcher and a solid starter? Umm, teams don't do this. You decide if you're a buyer or not, and make moves accordingly. They aren't going to make "buy" moves, and then turn around and trade away Chacin and Grandal.

 

He just doesn’t like Chacin. A week ago it was move him to the pen. Now because he’s throwing the ball well it is trading him for something useful. He did the same junk with Davies and wonders why people call him out all the time. Scatter shot all over the boards to hope that somehow he’s right with one of his goofy ideas.

[Eye Black]

IMO, the single biggest determining factor on whether the Brewers compete for a championship over the next three years will be their ability to internally develop impact starting pitching.

 

They aren’t in a position to sign a top of the free agent market type starting pitcher such as Gerrit Cole. They don’t appear to have the type of young assets needed to acquire an impact starter under control for multiple years. Relying on reclamation projects can help fill out a rotation, but isn’t likely to yield a top of the rotation type unless you get fairly lucky.

 

Hopefully Woodruff continues to take steps forward, but the reality is they likely need a couple more of the young pitchers in the system to become reliable mid-to-top of the rotation types.

[Brew crew 92]

What are we.... 2 or 3 games out of the WC and division? We are a very good team that can hardly play worse. We are getting reinforcements (bullpen) soon.

 

Exactly, bullpen reinforcements are exactly what this team needs to be able to win the central.

 

I’d do the following with the aforementioned pen reinforcements:

 

Trade Chacín for prospects.

Trade Grandal for prospects

 

Gio replaces Chacín.

Freitas replaces Grandal

 

Don’t need Chacín with Gio/Peralta

Freitas can hit and defend, less than 100 ab’s At .214 in ML not enough to judge, last 2 years .950+ ops 500 ab’s, .450+ on base telling, non K bat too. At least he gets a real shot to show us what he can do.

 

At least one of the 2 pen reinforcements should be controlled past this year, but hoping for both.

 

So you want to go for it and win the Central, and deal off the team's All-Star catcher and a solid starter? Umm, teams don't do this. You decide if you're a buyer or not, and make moves accordingly. They aren't going to make "buy" moves, and then turn around and trade away Chacin and Grandal.

 

Yes, where is it written in concrete that you can’t do both?

 

If I can’t get a decent prospect for Chacín, I keep him.

 

But Grandal is my #1 tradable asset, so I eat his salary to get better prospects. Freitas will help our offense with his contact orientated approach at the plate, and better defense.

[OldHeidelberg]

IMO, the single biggest determining factor on whether the Brewers compete for a championship over the next three years will be their ability to internally develop impact starting pitching.

 

They aren’t in a position to sign a top of the free agent market type starting pitcher such as Gerrit Cole. They don’t appear to have the type of young assets needed to acquire an impact starter under control for multiple years. Relying on reclamation projects can help fill out a rotation, but isn’t likely to yield a top of the rotation type unless you get fairly lucky.

 

Hopefully Woodruff continues to take steps forward, but the reality is they likely need a couple more of the young pitchers in the system to become reliable mid-to-top of the rotation types.

 

If they move Grandall/Moose and maybe others they could maybe add 4-5 prospects in the 5-15 range in their system. While not top end talent needed to land a tor starter it is at least more quantity to work with and with good development we could have a few top 100 prospects in the next year or so. I am not sure it will be enough to fix our rotation for next year but the money saved with selling could maybe help us land a FA to join Woody and Davies. It's not as bleak as it has been in the past, we still have hope for Perala/Burnes and then have Brown/Ashby maybe Rasmussen.