Are the Brewers Closer to a Rebuild than a Title Contender?

[balsamlaker]

2018 was great and the 2019 Brewers are contending for another division championship, but is the team closer to a rebuild than contending for a World Series title? 2019 team stats show a team that is roughly average hitting, pitching, and fielding. The team had five all stars and two of them have mutual options at the end of the year. Is the team willing to pay for Thames and Anderson to stay next year?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If anything, they will do a soft rebuild, selling off the rental and short-term pieces. Then next year they can build around Yelich, Woodruff and Hader. There are enough long-term pieces in place that I highly, highly doubt you'll see a complete teardown.

[RollieTime]

If anything, they will do a soft rebuild, selling off the rental and short-term pieces. Then next year they can build around Yelich, Woodruff and Hader. There are enough long-term pieces in place that I highly, highly doubt you'll see a complete teardown.

 

I agree with this completely. I could see guys like Arcia or Davies being had as well for the right price. I don’t see us keeping Davies long term and he has enough control to be a valuable piece to trade off. Arcia is easily replaceable in my opinion by a guy like Jose Iglesias on the free agent market, but could possibly draw interest from some teams. Hader I would float out there, but would only move him if I was blown away with an offer. Yelich and Woodruff won’t be moved.

 

Then they should put Peralta and Burnes in the rotation to gain experience heading into 2020. There are too many holes in the entire pitching staff and the offense is too homerun reliant to score runs on a consistent basis.

[Lathund]

Not rebuild, but reset ahead of next year. With almost the entire NL in the WC hunt this team runs a real risk of missing the playoffs entirely even if they make some good deadline signings who turn out to be productive players. Unless the situation changes drastically over the next 7-10 days or so, trading away any impending free agents should be the correct move. That pretty much means Grandal and Moose, since noone else should return anything beyond maybe cash or international bonus pool money, at best a lower-level PTBNL. Ideally Brewers should eat the entire salary to maximize return.

 

Only five players (Moustakas, Grandal, Albers, Chacin, Gio) not under team control for next year. Their salaries coming off the books, and potentially Anderson, Thames, Jeffress (All have team options) and some non-tenders, creates a situation with a lot of flexibility to make moves. I expect some of the above will be back, but the point is that there's a lot of freedom to move in different directions here, and a full rebuild isn't on the cards yet. Depending on who they can acquire, trading some players with more team control might be on the cards too, but that should be an offseason consideration and nothing for this trade deadline IMO.

 

I just hope we don't end up in a situation where the Brewers are buyers at the deadline but fail to make the playoffs. Giving up potentially useful players for a 2020 run, while not getting anything for Grandal or Moose, and nothing to show for it would be bad. Grandal and Moose won't get huge returns, but sometimes the Brett Phillips/Jorge Lopez type return he got last time ends up being a couple of useful players.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't know if the Brewers can afford to lose Davies. A good starter that doesn't have electric stuff and therefore won't command that kind of money. He'd seem to be the poster boy for one they have to at least try to keep just because they can, possibly.

 

I don't think we'll know the answer to the original question until next year. Can Shaw still play baseball? Aguilar? Was Cain just hurt and still a good player? What kind of arm does Knebel have? Is Jimmy Nelson going to pitch again?

[rickh150]

What are we.... 2 or 3 games out of the WC and division? We are a very good team that can hardly play worse. We are getting reinforcements (bullpen) soon.

[clancyphile]

If anything, they will do a soft rebuild, selling off the rental and short-term pieces. Then next year they can build around Yelich, Woodruff and Hader. There are enough long-term pieces in place that I highly, highly doubt you'll see a complete teardown.

 

I'd agree for the most part.

 

I see a core in:

Yelich

Hiura

Woodruff

Hader

 

Supplemental pieces:

Cain

Davies

Braun

Jeffress

Peralta

Houser

 

Some folks to try to extend:

Grandal

Moustakas

Gio

 

Young Exciting Talent:

Dubon

Supak

Grisham

Turang

Rasmussen

Nottingham

 

Comeback candidates:

Suter

Burnes

Nelson

Zach Brown

Ray

Stokes

Shaw

 

A lot can happen. If they can't get Grandal, Moose, and Gio to extend for 2-3 years, I could see them starting to move various pieces in a one or two season "retooling" for a 2021-2026 window. If they can, then I see them starting to look at how to maximize their roster versatility.

 

Either way, guys like Arcia, Guerra, Pina, Thames, Aguilar, and Claudio will likely be moved to make way for exciting players on the farm. Clayton Andrews and QTC will vie to replace Claudio, for instance. Erceg may or may not replace Thames and/or Shaw. Maybe 2020 is the year Supak and Rasmussen come up to adjust to the major-league level.

[brewmann04]

i wonder if any team will look to trade for Claudio or Albers ?

[balsamlaker]

If the team moves from a "hold" to a "sell", could it be possible that Jeffress is traded away for a third time? I agree with the idea that Yelich, Woodruff, Hader, and Hiura are values most likely not to be dealt. Teams always want relief pitching.

[Jopal78]

They need more talent; yet the cupboards are bare at the upper levels of their minor league system when it comes to elite talent.

 

Similar to 2011 when Melvin cashed in their chips to put a championship caliber team together before Fielder left, the Brewers probably need to cash in their chips to acquire veteran talent to compete the next two years at least, and can start a rebuild in 2022 by trading Yelich at the deadline in his last contracted year

[trwi7]

can start a rebuild in 2022 by trading Yelich at the deadline in his last contracted year

 

That's not going to get us nearly as much as it should. You trade the winter before free agency at the latest.

[folly412]

I'm all for a reload. Get some more into the mediocre farm, evaluate a few players that may be contributors next year, and we're a couple of signings away from giving it another go next year. Just don't believe this team's roster and coaching problems are solvable in two weeks, holding onto trade assets and trying to plug a couple of the many holes by further depleting the farm seems like a hefty cost for the very slim chance at winning a pennant.

 

 

Re: Davies, not sure how you part with him going into next year. The rotation is Woodruff and Davies for next year. Possibly Anderson, though I wouldn't count on it. There's a bunch of arms to fill the remaining spots - Houser, Peralta, Burnes, Jankins, Supak, Nelson, Smyly, Miller. None are more appealing than Davies, and signing three starters from elsewhere when you have one under control is unrealistic and even riskier.

[brewmann04]

They need Cory to come back healthy in the pen next year. DS also needs to find at least another starter for next season.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

They need more talent; yet the cupboards are bare at the upper levels of their minor league system when it comes to elite talent.

 

Similar to 2011 when Melvin cashed in their chips to put a championship caliber team together before Fielder left, the Brewers probably need to cash in their chips to acquire veteran talent to compete the next two years at least, and can start a rebuild in 2022 by trading Yelich at the deadline in his last contracted year

 

The Brewers don't have the chips you'd need to get Sabathia or Greinke. It's plausible they'd have done it with an offense this supposedly good, prior to this season.

 

As someone else said, trading Yelich that late ain't gonna do a whole lot. I'd argue you'd have to do that next season, or after next season at the latest. Problem, if you can call it that, is that they're not bad enough to ship him yet. You have to really know you can't compete before you trade him.

 

Assume Moose and Grandal are done, Shaw has to play next year. 2B is OK. But this team absolutely needs a starting pitcher.

[brewmann04]

DS imo has to find at least one quality starter and think they will be ok

[yourout]

This pitching staff right now is light years from being a serious threat to win a world championship.

One or two more relievers is not going to make much difference.

[brewmann04]

They never found a replacement for Knebel that what hurt.The 2 of the young 3 arms failed as starters which set this team back. Chacin also has failed to perform like last season that has been another issue.

[Ennder]

Nope, I've watched baseball more than just this year. A bad month stretch doesn't mean a team can't compete. In fact this same team had this same month long lull around this time last year. It really means very little. It hurts the chance at the playoffs but it doesn't really set a new narrative for the quality of the team.

[trwi7]

A bad month stretch doesn't mean a team can't compete.

 

They're 41-45 in their last 86 games with a -30 run differential.

[Ennder]

A bad month stretch doesn't mean a team can't compete.

 

They're 39-45 in their last 84 games with a -30 run differential.

 

Completely meaningless stat though. They are 2-7 in their last 9 games with a -25 run differential. So going into that 9 game stretch they were 37-38 with a -5 run differential or a roughly .500 team. In the past month they are 10-17 so before that they were 29-28 so a winning record in that sample you quoted. They had a -38 run differential during that month so they had a +8 over the rest of your sample . So your proof is based on them going 1 game over .500 with a +8 run differential over my month sample. All you are showing here is how you can make a sample size say what you want it to. A month ago nobody was complaining about where this team was and nobody thought the season looked bleak, they had a super cruddy month, that isnt' enough to call them dead.

 

The Red Sox also had an awful month, as did the Cubs. This is just how baseball goes, it is insanely streaky.

[trwi7]

A bad month stretch doesn't mean a team can't compete.

 

They're 39-45 in their last 84 games with a -30 run differential.

 

Completely meaningless stat though. They are 2-7 in their last 9 games with a -25 run differential. So going into that 9 game stretch they were 37-38 with a -5 run differential or a roughly .500 team. In the past month they are 10-17 so before that they were 29-28 so a winning record in that sample you quoted. They had a -38 run differential during that month so they had a +8 over the rest of your sample . So your proof is based on them going 1 game over .500 with a +8 run differential over my month sample. All you are showing here is how you can make a sample size say what you want it to.

 

I'm also showing that it's not just one bad month like you said. At best they've been mediocre for a vast majority of the season.

[Ennder]

 

I'm also showing that it's not just one bad month like you said. At best they've been mediocre for a vast majority of the season.

No you didn't show that at all. You showed that the one bad month still looks bad when you add a 57 game stretch where they played over .500 with a positive run differential. You literally posted complete nonsense and you are still defending it. Trying to say that it isn't just one bad month and then adding a sample where the team was above average in both record and run differential is just downright weird. Before this bad month literally nobody thought the team was playing poorly and the stats told you they weren't either, it is a one month bad stretch.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Might want to chill a bit. I'd say he's pretty far from complete nonsense. This team had a good six weeks and has been the same mediocrity the rest of the way.

 

The terrible division is the only reason anyone is still clinging to a playoff dream. He sounds a lot closer to reality than you do, tbh.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Also, your last sentence is just blatantly false. Literally no one thought they were playing poorly a month ago? Huh? Even pre-nose dive they had four black holes in the lineup and a very suspect bullpen. Plenty of people thought that.

[Ennder]

Might want to chill a bit. I'd say he's pretty far from complete nonsense. This team had a good six weeks and has been the same mediocrity the rest of the way.

 

The terrible division is the only reason anyone is still clinging to a playoff dream. He sounds a lot closer to reality than you do, tbh.

 

Sorry but he did. Over the sample he is quoting outside of this past month we had a winning record and a positive run differential. Trying to claim this is a season long problem when it literally has only been a one month long problem is nonsense.

 

If we play 50 games with a .600 winning percentage and a+100 run differential and then play 25 games with a .200 winning percentage and a -100 run differential you can't say we have sucked for 75 games. We have sucked for 25 games. The stats he quoted do not say what he claimed at all, it is simple math and his math doesn't add up.