Mets and Brewers talking Thor?

[rickh150]

Would Arcia, Burnes, and Houser get it done?

 

Long term, we do have Wahl and Knebel coming back next year.

[Madhawk23]

Would Arcia, Burnes, and Houser get it done?

 

Man, I'd be pissed if I were a Mets fan and this is all that my GM got back in a trade for Thor. Who's the headliner in this deal going back to NYM? A light hitting SS that's already been up in the big leagues for 2+ years, or a SP in Burnes who's shown no signs of any consistency yet at the MLB level?

[adambr2]

Not a chance.

[Eye Black]

It seems the closest the Brewers ever came under Stearns’ leadership to a acquiring a well regarded starting pitcher near the trade deadline was Jose Quintana back in 2017. At the time it seemed like one of the enticing aspects were his multiple years of control.

 

I think the biggest challenges for the Brewers trying to acquire a mid-to-top rotation starting pitcher this deadline are as follows:

 

1) Nearly every contending team is in need of another quality starting pitcher. The competition to add starting pitching on the trade market is going to be very high this year. It also doesn’t help that there are also currently more teams still in the playoff hunt than usual.

 

2) The Brewers have a giant gap between Hiura and their next tier of prospects. I don’t think they’ll be willing to part with Hiura for a starting pitcher (and they shouldn’t), but the next group of prospects aren’t likely valuable enough to headline a trade for an impact starter. I also don’t think many teams trading a quality arm are going to accept a quantity over quality type deal. Even when the Brewers traded a half season of Zack Greinke away they got back a top 50 prospect in return. There are several teams with multiple top prospects that are better positioned to outbid any package the Brewers can put together (sans Hiura).

[Jopal78]

Right on! Milwaukee isn’t going to trade for a good controllable starting pitcher and retain Hiura.

 

As for the rental players, executives know the value of the rental players and teams like the Giants will pick which prospect package they like best for Will Smith, Bumgarner etc

[Madhawk23]

Right on! Milwaukee isn’t going to trade for a good controllable starting pitcher and retain Hiura.

 

As for the rental players, executives know the value of the rental players and teams like the Giants will pick which prospect package they like best for Will Smith, Bumgarner etc

 

Yeah, there's just no way that Stearns is going to give up too much for a rental player. Let's look at the guys we've traded for rental players the past two years:

 

Medeiros for Soria

Lopez and Phillips for Moose

Carmona, Ortiz and Villar for Schoop

Cordell for Swarzak

Taylor Scott for Jeffress

 

Medeiros, Ortiz, Lopez and Phillips were all once big prospects in our system, but I think we can all agree that at the time of each of these trades - all four had seen their prospect status fall significantly. I'd actually make the argument that Carmona and Cordell were the two guys that I hated to see us trade the most out of this group.

 

Anyway - I just would find it hard to believe that Stearns is going to give up anyone of significance for a rental player. And because of that, I just don't see us landing any of the big name SP rentals - Wheeler, MadBum, etc. I think he'll continue to have discussions like he always does, but we'll probably end up settling on a couple of relief arms that hopefully shouldn't cost us as much in prospect capital.

[Fear The Chorizo]

1) Nearly every contending team is in need of another quality starting pitcher. The competition to add starting pitching on the trade market is going to be very high this year. It also doesn’t help that there are also currently more teams still in the playoff hunt than usual.

 

I actually think the pile of NL teams within earshot of contending may help to suppress the trade market this year - not nearly as many teams in true sell mode so there aren't going to be a ton of desired players on the market, and most teams with a shot may take a tepid approach to this year's trade deadline not wanting to sell off the farm chasing fool's gold. Case in point would be what the Pirates did around this time last year trading for Archer. I'm guessing alot of NL teams are going to hope improvement comes internally - either from prospect callups of their own or just having key players start performing better within their own organizations. There's going to be a flurry of trades the last couple days of July, but I'm guessing the market is pretty quiet across the NL until the bitter end. On the AL side, contending teams are much easier to see, which likely means they will be more aggressive improving their rosters via trade. Look for teams like the Twins and Yankees to short up bullpen holes soon - and the Indians, Rays, and A's are going to be players too. The Rangers are just close enough to contention that they could return to making more silly deadline deals chasing pitching, too. I don't think the Astros have much of a team weakness, but they may look to make a splash move and surprise people to try and separate themselves, while the Red Sox would probably like to upgrade but don't have much on the farm to do so.

 

In the NL, the Braves may go after another starter or pen option, but they've already brought in Keuchel. The Nats are rolling while the Phillies have basically mirrored the Brewers in terms of a disappointing June - I don't see either of those teams getting too nuts via trade unless they are adding relievers, as their answers are more internal. These NL east teams are at a deadline disadvantage since they are in the same division as the Mets and Marlins - two obvious sellers that may gum up potential trades with the teams not wanting to bolster their chances in 2019 nor ship quality prospects to division rivals in any trades. The NL Central is just a blob of teams that are all going to have a tough time getting hot enough to separate themselves in the standings, so I think they'll all have a tough time being aggressive via trade. The NL West is the Dodgers and everyone else - and the Dodgers are so loaded they may have a tough time actually identifying roster upgrades via trade. However, if they want to go for broke this year they have the farm system to make a few impact moves in effort to finally win it all.

 

Specific to the Brewers, I'd like to see them go after Wheeler - simply to get another reliable starting pitcher for the stretch run that's capable of a dominating couple months. Burnes and Peralta appear to have settled in a bit to their bullpen roles, but it'd also be nice to find one more stud reliever for the back end. I don't think they should meddle with offensive upgrades - they need their own guys to perform. That all being said, if they fall apart over the next couple weeks I think the Brewers absolutely need to become aggressive sellers this deadline - guys like Grandal and Moose, even Albers, Davies, Anderson, Thames, etc. need to be made available for prospects.

[Warning Track Power]

I think a Thor type (controllable) makes the most sense from Stearns mentality. If the Brewers truly are going to make a trade for a SP it will either be an all in for a Thor-type or it will be a hoping to catch lightning in a bottle Gio-type. The Bumgarner and Wheeler type rentals don't fit Stearns MO in terms of sacrificing good prospects. If you can acquire them at a heavily discounted rate, which is unlikely given the supposed interest surrounding them, I can see it. Like Moustakas last year.

 

My expectation though is you will either see that a Yelich-type deal for a controllable SP or you will see nibbling around the fringes of the roster.

[Brewcrewin07]

People talk about the brewers prospects and the drop off after Hiura. Sure, it's big, but guys like Burnes and Peralta to me are tradeable. I don't know if people just don't want to part with them or what?? I easily give up both of them in a Syndergaard deal for example.

[mlloyd10]

Arcia/Lutz/Peralta/Turang/$10 mil for Syndergaard/Lagares

[TURBO]

Arcia/Lutz/Peralta/Turang/$10 mil for Syndergaard/Lagares

 

Lutz AND Turang?

 

I'm out...

 

[Wahoo Maniac]

People talk about the brewers prospects and the drop off after Hiura. Sure, it's big, but guys like Burnes and Peralta to me are tradeable. I don't know if people just don't want to part with them or what?? I easily give up both of them in a Syndergaard deal for example.

I wouldn't give up both as that's a ton of control lost for 2.5yrs of Thor who has injury concerns to begin with. I have no issues parting with Peralta. I just think Burnes is a more polished pitcher and worst case is a big arm in the pen (although I think he sticks in the rotation and figures it out next year). I'd part with Burnes in a package if there was a pitcher coming back with 3.5yrs control. No way I part with both in the same package

[adambr2]

Arcia/Lutz/Peralta/Turang/$10 mil for Syndergaard/Lagares

 

Lutz AND Turang?

 

I'm out...

 

 

Mets would be out long before that anyway. I just don't see a real centerpiece here. I guess it's Turang, but there will be teams offering much better centerpieces.

[Warning Track Power]

If it's Hiura for Syndergaard straight up...does anyone do that?

 

Given the Brewers historic lack of development in terms of pitching, I am all in favor of trading elite hitting for elite pitching. The years of control are what preclude me from making this move. I keep trying to find a way for the Brewers to acquire Syndergaard without parting with Hiura and I just don't see it. As adam mentions, the Mets will need a sexy headliner and no one in the Brewers system fits the bill other than Hiura.

[OldHeidelberg]

If it's Hiura for Syndergaard straight up...does anyone do that?

 

Given the Brewers historic lack of development in terms of pitching, I am all in favor of trading elite hitting for elite pitching. The years of control are what preclude me from making this move. I keep trying to find a way for the Brewers to acquire Syndergaard without parting with Hiura and I just don't see it. As adam mentions, the Mets will need a sexy headliner and no one in the Brewers system fits the bill other than Hiura.

 

It's tough as I really like the idea of adding an starter like him but I wouldn't. Too many years of Hiura for 2.5 of Thor, that's the difference for me.

[Wahoo Maniac]

If it's Hiura for Syndergaard straight up...does anyone do that?

No. And the Mets are hurting in a lot of areas so I don't think they necessarily will require one elite prospect, one very good+ propsect + fillers if they can acquire a package of several young controllable MLB players/upper level good prospects. I can see them going either way as the return is going to be good regardless.

[JosephC]

If it's Hiura for Syndergaard straight up...does anyone do that?

 

Given the Brewers historic lack of development in terms of pitching, I am all in favor of trading elite hitting for elite pitching. The years of control are what preclude me from making this move. I keep trying to find a way for the Brewers to acquire Syndergaard without parting with Hiura and I just don't see it. As adam mentions, the Mets will need a sexy headliner and no one in the Brewers system fits the bill other than Hiura.

 

I wouldn't because (A) Hiura has significantly higher surplus value by my calculations and (B) I'd be torn about paying market value for Syndergaard because he's a real hard-thrower that only started 7 games in 2017 and 25 games in 2018. I know there are a lot of people out there that are just willing to accept injuries as part of the package for high-upside players, but I'm not one. Even the best guys don't add a darn thing if they are on the bench with an injury.

 

But after having given it some thought, even though I wouldn't be a fan of the move, if Stearns did something like:

 

Brewers get:

RHP-Noah Syndergaard

RHP-Seth Lugo

3B-Todd Frazier

 

Mets get:

2B-Keston Hiura

RHP-Trey Supak

C-Jacob Nottingham

 

I really couldn't argue about that too much. I haven't cranked through the math but I'd guess that would be pretty fair, numbers-wise. Brewers lose 6+ years of Hiura but would be trading for 2+ years of Syndergaard and 3+ years of Lugo. Syndergaard would represent a huge upgrade for the rotation and Lugo would be considered the 2nd best reliever on the team. Frazier plays third, Moustakas to second, and while Frazier's bat would be a pitiful long-term comparison to Hiura...currently this season Frazier is slashing .256/.340/.443/.783 against Hiura's .257/.318/.475/.793...so Frazier's bat might not even be that big of a downgrade when limiting the outlook to 2019.

[brewmann04]

I don't see the mets making this move even with their FO

[nate82]

I believe the Mets probably will value players closer to the majors than other prospects. Hiura, Burnes and Peralta would be on the top of their list. I believe Burnes and Peralta have a higher value to the Mets than some are giving them.

 

I don't believe the Mets are going to go into the blow it all up rebuild and will be looking for players that are closer to the majors or are already in the majors.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I believe the Mets probably will value players closer to the majors than other prospects. Hiura, Burnes and Peralta would be on the top of their list. I believe Burnes and Peralta have a higher value to the Mets than some are giving them.

 

I don't believe the Mets are going to go into the blow it all up rebuild and will be looking for players that are closer to the majors or are already in the majors.

 

If the Mets truly value close-to ML assets over lower level guys, I wonder if pitchers such as Houser, Supak or even Knebel, and hitters like Nottingham, Dubon and Grisham are going to hold more appeal? I'd suggest Ray, Taylor and Stokes, but all three of them are scuffling big time, so I doubt they are being looked at heavily as major trade pieces.

[OldHeidelberg]

I believe the Mets probably will value players closer to the majors than other prospects. Hiura, Burnes and Peralta would be on the top of their list. I believe Burnes and Peralta have a higher value to the Mets than some are giving them.

 

I don't believe the Mets are going to go into the blow it all up rebuild and will be looking for players that are closer to the majors or are already in the majors.

 

If the Mets truly value close-to ML assets over lower level guys, I wonder if pitchers such as Houser, Supak or even Knebel, and hitters like Nottingham, Dubon and Grisham are going to hold more appeal? I'd suggest Ray, Taylor and Stokes, but all three of them are scuffling big time, so I doubt they are being looked at heavily as major trade pieces.

 

Ray has been out for so long it's hard to say how teams view him at this point. We do have a few buy low candidates for the Mets if they want MLB pieces. Going into the season most of us thought Burnes would be the top guy of the 3 young pitchers but now who trades Woodruff straight up for Syndergaard? Burnes could be just like him next season with 5 years of control left. Maybe the Mets like Shaw as a bounce back candidate as well if they need a LH power bat. It's not very likely to happen but he is one of the only guys I think the Brewers should make a big deal for right now and he is sort of a buy low guy right now too.

 

edit: Just realized Ray back in Biloxi

[JosephC]

Would the Mets love to have Hiura's bat? Sure, any one of 30 MLB teams would. But the problem with Hiura to the Mets is what do they do with Robinson Cano? If the Mets believe JD Davis is the real deal, then where does Hiura fit in with Davis, Cano, Alonso...and many people already believe Rosario should be moved off SS.

 

Hiura's the only chance I see of these two teams lining up on a Syndergaard trade, but the more one looks at it, the more it just doesn't seem to match up.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Switch away from Hiura and start with Grisham + Burnes - I'd think the Brewers would need to add another notable prospect in the lower minors and some filler, but this is the type of package that might interest the Mets if they are serious about dealing Thor and other teams aren't offering up crazy prospect packages the Brewers just can't match. Burnes has obviously had a disappointing season, but the arm and stuff are still there along with quite a bit of team-friendly control. Grisham has had a great 2019, but dealing him this deadline might wind up being the definition of selling high. 2.5 years of Thor is very intriguing for this Brewers team.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

One reason the Brewers have been able to swing some big trades over the last few years is that they are not afraid to deal off prospects who are close to MLB ready, which other contenders simply haven't been willing to do. The Brewers may not have a ton of nationally-ranked high-end prospects, but what they do have is a lot of MLB-ready talent that could immediately step into roles for rebuilding teams. Other contenders don't like to deal off those types for fear that it will hurt their MLB depth. Thankfully the Brewers are constructed in a way where there is deep talent at nearly every position.

[Madhawk23]

Switch away from Hiura and start with Grisham + Burnes - I'd think the Brewers would need to add another notable prospect in the lower minors and some filler, but this is the type of package that might interest the Mets if they are serious about dealing Thor and other teams aren't offering up crazy prospect packages the Brewers just can't match. Burnes has obviously had a disappointing season, but the arm and stuff are still there along with quite a bit of team-friendly control. Grisham has had a great 2019, but dealing him this deadline might wind up being the definition of selling high. 2.5 years of Thor is very intriguing for this Brewers team.

 

As much as I would love to trade Grisham this summer as a "headliner" in a deal, are we certain that he's actually bumped back up his trade value that much in just a few months? I mean, we are talking about a kid that was on the verge of losing all "prospect status" that he had left remaining this year if he didn't start to put things together this season. Credit to him for stepping up and doing that so far this year, but I still have to wonder if other teams would shy away from him in a trade - not knowing completely yet what type of player they might be getting?

 

I could definitely see guys like Burnes, Freddy and Arcia having much more value to teams that are looking for those MLB ready guys that are still young enough to blossom in the coming years.