PECOTA Projections are out

[RobertR]

Baseball Prospectus have their PECOTA Projections out. I'll post more later, but to give you a taste.

 

Pitchers W/L ERA WHIP

Sheets 12-8, 3.36, 1.07

Capuano 11-11, 4.43, 1.33

Bush 11-10, 4.14, 1.28

Suppan 8-10, 4.96, 1.49

Vargas 7-9, 4.86, 1.39

Villanueva 8-10, 4.62, 1.32

Gallardo 8-8, 4.00, 1.36

 

Hitters BA/OBP/SLG

Weeks .275/.358/.457

Koskie .258/.345/.455

Graffanino .276/.345/.409

Hall .278/.346/.522

Fielder .292/.373/.531

Hart .288/.353/.517

Jenkins .268/.345/.452

Mench .279/.343/.486

Hardy .263/.329/.419

Estrada .282/.327/.425

Miller .253/.327/.396

 

And a couple more for discussion.

 

Braun .283/.341/.504

Gillespie .263/.342/.419

 

Robert

[pitchleague]

that's 65 wins for our starters. Can our bullpen come up with over 20 wins again? Might be asking for alot.

[sbrylski]

Hart's look great. Kind of interesting to see Mench > Jenkins.

[RobertR]

I wouldn't take the win projections too seriously. They depend a lot on IP and PECOTA is very conservative with that. Sheets is projected for about 177 IP, for instance. If he pitches 220+ innings that would be a significant change in his (and the team's) win total. Winning % is probably more important among the starters than total wins.

 

Robert

[pogokat]

i would weep with joy if hart/fielder/weeks/hardy hit those projections...

 

i think this demonstrates why a few of us arent worried about the offense..

[deeswan]

I'm particularly surprised by the predictions for Fielder and Hart. 900 OPS for Prince and 870 for Corey. Seems a bit high. If they hit like that they will be rock stars in Milwaukee.

[mothershipconnection]

If we get that kind of production out of Hart, I will hold a press conference to proclaim him the messiah.

[endaround]

When will BP publish the estimated std of their PECOTA projections? They have them and often referrence the probability distribution of a given player. Why not just throw up one number that gives alot of information? I'm not asking for soem esoteric 4th moment here.

 

As to the difference between Mench and Jenkins, its probably all due to Jenkins having a higher probability of collapse due to his age.

[RobertR]

They have that information available, but I didn't feel like using more than some basic information as fair use. It's available on the website and in the book, but I generally don't consider that fair use.

 

That said, the difference between Jenkins and Mench is pretty much down to Collapse % as theorized above. Jenkins has a fairly substantial collapse % of 39%. Mench only has a collapse % of 16%. PECOTA basically is saying Mench will bounce back due to age and Jenkins will continue to get worse. And, of course, PECOTA isn't necessarily considering using the players in a platoon.

 

Robert

[strawbossisevil]

Wow, I like Hart, but if he puts up those numbers that would be amazing. Braun also looks to be a stud.

 

For quick reference, here are the projected OPS numbers position by position:

Catcher: Estrada .752 OPS (Miller .723 OPS)

1st Base: Fielder: .904 OPS

2nd Base: Weeks: .815 OPS (Graffy .754 OPS)

Shortstop: Hardy .748 OPS (Counsell ?)

3rd Base: Koskie: .800 OPS (Braun .845 OPS)

Left: Jenkins .797 OPS (Mench 829 OPS)

Center: Hall .868 OPS (Clark ?)

Right: Hart .870 OPS (Gross ?)

 

If they were to match these OPS numbers, where would they rank position wise in the NL:

Catcher: Estrada: 12th, Miller: 16th (min. 175 ABs for Catchers)

1st Base: Fielder: 7th (min 350 ABs for Position players)

2nd Base: Weeks: 6th

Shortstop: Hardy: 8th

3rd Base: Koskie: 12th, Braun: 10th

Left: Jenkins: 11th, Mench 10th

Center: Hall: 3rd

Right: Hart: 4th

 

Based on this, players we have who are projected to be above average at their position: Weeks, Hall, and Hart (3)

 

Players who are projected to be average at their position: Fielder, Hardy (2)

 

Players who are below average at their position: Estrada, Koskie/Braun, Jenkins/Mench (3)

 

Overall, even with these projected numbers, we are looking like a pretty average (at best) offense.

 

One more comment, does anyone else find it funny, that on that list of pitchers, the worst pitcher is Jeff Suppan. I think that definitely speaks volumes about the depth we have with our pitching right now.

[DuWayne Steurer]

One more comment, does anyone else find it funny, that on that list of pitchers, the worst pitcher is Jeff Suppan. I think that definitely speaks volumes about the depth we have with our pitching right now.

 

 

Not only that, but if you go by ERA, Gallardo would be our 2nd best pitcher. And Bush is better than Capuano in this projection. Which to be honest, I don't think would surprise a lot of people if it happened.

[shtiny]

Can someone explain the 5 year forecasts?

 

Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SPD AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP

2007 (age 23) 573 82 35 5 23 80 42 115 19 7 5.5 .283 .341 .504 .089 .282 .338 .500 .281 31.4 134-3B -9 4.1

2008 (age 24) 556 81 34 4 23 79 42 111 18 7 5.2 .290 .350 .512 .122 .285 .342 .500 .286 30.9 130-3B -8 4.3

2009 (age 25) 536 76 32 4 23 77 41 108 18 6 5.2 .288 .348 .511 .115 .283 .340 .499 .286 26.1 126-3B -7 3.9

2010 (age 26) 527 73 32 4 21 75 39 100 15 6 5.1 .287 .347 .509 .110 .282 .339 .497 .284 22.4 124-3B -7 3.6

2011 (age 27) 533 75 33 4 23 77 39 104 15 6 5.1 .287 .347 .515 .118 .282 .339 .503 .285 21.6 125-3B -9 3.3

 

 

This is for Ryan Braun. It basically says he will be the exact same player in 2007 at age 23 as a rookie, as he will in 2011 when he will be a five year vet in the prime of his career????

[rluzinski]

Yes, that's very odd.

[7rebmun]

Can someone point me to a reference that describes what these projections are actually projecting?

 

For example, is this saying that they are projecting Ryan Braun to hit .283 in the majors this year?

[7rebmun]

Well the wikipedia page didn't help, and I can't find anything on the BP site.

 

I'm still very curious what the projected numbers for minor leaguers mean.

[pogokat]

the numbers represent what the pecota projection system things those minor leaguers would hit/pitch i9n the majors in 2007...

 

ryan braun is good

[7rebmun]

So they believe Eric Young Jr. is going to log 600ish ABs and steal 73 bases this year?

[rluzinski]

If PECOTA is like every other projection system, they aren't really attempting to project how much playing time he'll actually get.

[7rebmun]

Okay, that makes sense, as far as not projecting playing time. But if that's the case, then why project Sheets with less than 200 IP? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Not trying to be a pain in the butt, actually trying to understand the predictions.

[1992casey]

The projections work with previous numbers and account for league difficulty.

 

The problem is that plate appearances can't really be adjusted. If a guy was a full-timer in the minors, he's going to be projected as a full-timer in the majors.

 

My guess is that if the system tried to adjust so plate appearances would be more accurate, something more important would 'break'.

[7rebmun]

Thanks for the explanation, I really appreciate it.

[rluzinski]

PECOTTA probably just looks at the last few years and takes a weighted average of PA/IP. Just look at rate stats (OBP,SLG,HR/PA, etc...), plugging in how many PAs you think a player will get.