OK at the Break what does David Stearns need to do

[Brew crew 92]

I think anyone hoping this team’s roster is going to look significantly different by the end of the All-Star break is setting themselves up for disappointment.

 

They’ll make moves this month, but I would doubt many (if any) occur by this Friday.

I think this sentiment will extend straight through the trade deadline. Pretty much every team in contention can outbid us if they want to. It's going to be a couple of under the radar moves and not much more. The players we have are going to have to play better.

 

 

It's pretty much all about this. If Aguilar can keep his little mini-resurgence going, that'd be great. Shaw figuring it out would help, but that'd be a bonus at this point.

 

Cain, Aguilar, Chacin, Burnes all need to perform closer to what they're capable of. If that happens and it need to start to happen in the next couple weeks, then it makes sense to go out and add a reliever. If those players don't get it going, then selling a few select players would make more sense and go into next year trying to re-load and bounce back.

 

Imo, the NL this year, outside of LA, is as weak as it’s gonna be for as far as my eyes can see.

 

LA- max payroll/Friedman > elite for years ahead

Atlanta- just scratching the surface.

Phil- $$$

SD- next year big leap.

Col- Young team getting better

Cinc- Young Team/strong farm/better

Pitt- Young Team/strong farm/better

Chic- still gonna be good

 

Imo, we have our best window to win this year and next, we can win the central this year and next with the right moves, and it starts at this year’s deadline. How we do in the next 2 weeks doesn’t effect what needs done at the deadline. This team is ready to go on a run at some point in the near future, and with 2 pen arms added(D.Williams?Last year’s Burnes2.0)bat?, starter?, this team can get there.

[adambr2]

I'm not going to "go for it" when the talent level clearly isn't good enough to make the playoffs. You play 5 game series and 7 game series in baseball, anything can happen. We've seen it many times before. Conversely, I'm not sure why so many are hesitant to trade "prospects"?? They are just that...unproven talent. When has a small market team ever been in playoff contention every year?? It just doesn't happen, and hasn't happened. When you have the chance to make the playoffs, you simply have to go for it..next year isn't guaranteed for anything.

 

Well this is how we were operating 5-10 years ago. The problem is you eventually completely deplete your farm system and have no trade chips left to make these deals, (we were in a position where one of our top prospects, Erik Komatsu was good enough to land....a 35 year old Jerry Hairston) and at some point your veterans are weaker, you can't retain the better ones and you end up in a rebuild which we did. .

 

It isn't that bad yet, but we already don't have much of a farm system left. Who specifically are these big acquisitions you want to make and who are you giving up to get them? Again, if it's truly a huge get, most 'contenders' which is probably half the league, will be in on it, and guys like Freddy Peralta and Orlando Arcia aren't going to cut it when you're competing with farm systems like Houston, Atlanta, and San Diego.

[Jopal78]

I suppose the real answer to what the Brewers GM should do is driven by what your interest is as a fan: A.) Do you want to see the Brewers be aggressive and do what they have to in trying to make the playoffs when they are a contender (which also probably leads to some lean years down the road); or B.) Do you want to see them be conservative but generally be around .500 year in, year out, maybe catching some breaks once a decade or so and make the playoffs?

 

I'm okay with them being aggressive. It was so much more entertaining to follow the team in 2008, 2011 and 2018 than it was in 2009, 2010, 2013 and 2014 for example. Further, if your drafting in the bottom half of the round its not as though the team is going to be stock piling blue chip prospects year in and year out, so a couple of lean years after being aggressive is probably better for the system anyways.

[tmwiese55]

One thing that popped into my head scanning through this and kind of unintended consequence of the one deadline is that adding that bench bat (like Grandy last year) isn't really possible in the normal way anymore since roster expansion doesn't happen for a month. so whatever bench bat you get would have to replace one of the bench guys we currently have. Obviously we have room to improve on Salad/PErez but obviously you're limited to SS ability only. It's not so easy just to grab an extra bat for the sake of it anymore.

[homer]

I'd focus on one trade. Stroman and Giles package. It's 1 move but feels like 2 given Houser gets bumped to the pen bolstering it with Giles. I'd look at using Arcia and Peralta as MLB guys to include in the package.

 

I could get behind that.

[Oxy]

I'd focus on one trade. Stroman and Giles package. It's 1 move but feels like 2 given Houser gets bumped to the pen bolstering it with Giles. I'd look at using Arcia and Peralta as MLB guys to include in the package.

 

I could get behind that.

 

This makes a lot of sense. Throw in Corey Ray and a young lottery guy and call it a done deal. Stroman and Giles for this year and next year fits pretty dang well.

[Madhawk23]

I'd be on board with this idea as well, but I still question if a package of Arcia, Freddy, Ray + lottery ticket is enough to get a deal like this done? Do we have any idea what type of value Arcia and Freddy still have - now that both have been up 2-3 years with varied success at the MLB level? Also, does Corey Ray have much value anymore? Seems like somewhat of a lopsided trade package in our favor here - at least on paper.

[Lathund]

I think that if we see any major moves, they'll be for a player with multiple years of team control remaining; I don't think Stearns will be in on the expensive rentals. If no major move like that (And I'm not sure if there are any like that out there) we'll see cheaper rentals. Finding this years Gio, Swarzak or Soria on the pitching side, Neil Walker or Mike Moustakas on the position player side. And I again think Stearns will try to get what he can for prospects on the 40-man (Diplan, Stokes, Taylor) or impending minor league FAs and Rule 5 candidates. Fairly slim pickings overall there, but at least relievers (Certainly ones with some money left on their contract) can be had for relatively little. That's not to say there won't be some more highly rated prospects traded for bigger targets, but I don't think that's the primary focus.

 

And I'm fine with that. I think the team is better than the negative run differential would suggest (Cain, Aguilar, Burnes, Chacin etc. will almost certainly be better in the 2nd half than the 1st), but I don't think it's all that much better. Not good enough that any move the Brewers can realistically make would turn the team into a real WS contender. Any team *can* win once they're in the playoffs, but even adding the best starter and best closer available on the market won't make the Brewers the favourite against the Dodgers, let alone the Yankees or Astros. If our division standings looked like the NLE but with us instead of the Braves, I'd be much more inclined to make bigger moves. But combine how much the team needs to improve, and that said improvement might not even result in getting to the playoffs, and the limited resources to make those moves, and I don't see how any big moves really "move the needle" enough to justify their cost. Deadline deals, especially for the better players, are almost always poor value. And that's fine if they push you over the edge, but bring in a rebuild without nothing to show for the "window" if they don't.

 

I'd also leave any business to relatively late in the month, to better gauge whether there's any point to it to begin with. If both the division lead and the WC slip further away it might even be more prudent to trade the impending free agents (Moustakas and Grandal in particular) instead.

[OldHeidelberg]

I'd be on board with this idea as well, but I still question if a package of Arcia, Freddy, Ray + lottery ticket is enough to get a deal like this done? Do we have any idea what type of value Arcia and Freddy still have - now that both have been up 2-3 years with varied success at the MLB level? Also, does Corey Ray have much value anymore? Seems like somewhat of a lopsided trade package in our favor here - at least on paper.

 

 

We know all these answers! OK I am getting a little too much mileage out of the trade value site but it's fun.

 

Stroman and Giles = 37.5 total value

Arcia, Peralta, Ray = 49.8

 

So no need for Ray or a lottery pick...

[Wahoo Maniac]

I'd be on board with this idea as well, but I still question if a package of Arcia, Freddy, Ray + lottery ticket is enough to get a deal like this done? Do we have any idea what type of value Arcia and Freddy still have - now that both have been up 2-3 years with varied success at the MLB level? Also, does Corey Ray have much value anymore? Seems like somewhat of a lopsided trade package in our favor here - at least on paper.

 

 

We know all these answers! OK I am getting a little too much mileage out of the trade value site but it's fun.

 

Stroman and Giles = 37.5 total value

Arcia, Peralta, Ray = 49.8

 

So no need for Ray or a lottery pick...

Not that it's very accurate or realistic but, again, it points to your MLB players as being your best trade chips as good or promising young MLB players always hold more value than a prospect so we shouldn't just be looking at prospects to trade.

 

Out of curiosity what's the total value of Peralta, Ray, Dubon?

 

Arcia has 3.5yrs control on his rookie contract, has proven to be a plus defender and has flashed a solid bat over his 400 games. If the Jays believe in the development of his bat/approach they'll see a lot of value in him. He turns 28 with 2 months left on his contract and can anchor the young talented IF there. He has plenty of value. Peralta has 5.5yrs and is a big K guy. He's been inconsistent but when he's on he's really good. He'll have a lot of value as well. They're basically swapping 1.5yrs of a proven successful vet for 5.5yrs of young potential who's flashed success and 1.5yrs of a great pen arm for 3.5yrs of a starting SS. I think it's a win/win. Then again maybe the Jays want prospects and not MLB guys, which is why something like Peralta, Dubon, Ray might be more enticing given the control and how close they are to being MLB ready.

[OldHeidelberg]

Not that it's very accurate or realistic but, again, it points to your MLB players as being your best trade chips as good or promising young MLB players always hold more value than a prospect so we shouldn't just be looking at prospects to trade.

 

Out of curiosity what's the total value of Peralta, Ray, Dubon?

 

Arcia has 3.5yrs control on his rookie contract, has proven to be a plus defender and has flashed a solid bat over his 400 games. If the Jays believe in the development of his bat/approach they'll see a lot of value in him. He turns 28 with 2 months left on his contract and can anchor the young talented IF there. He has plenty of value. Peralta has 5.5yrs and is a big K guy. He's been inconsistent but when he's on he's really good. He'll have a lot of value as well. They're basically swapping 1.5yrs of a proven successful vet for 5.5yrs of young potential who's flashed success and 1.5yrs of a great pen arm for 3.5yrs of a starting SS. I think it's a win/win. Then again maybe the Jays want prospects and not MLB guys, which is why something like Peralta, Dubon, Ray might be more enticing given the control and how close they are to being MLB ready.

 

I totally agree about the value of young MLB players, especially ones who were good prospects like Arcia and Peralta. But yeah tough to find a fit when you are trying to add arms at the deadline, a team like the Mets that always tries to contend would probably take the major league guys but not sure about the Jays. Like you say they are trading guys who can't help now for guys who could 2 or 3 years down the road.

 

Peralta 14.7

Ray 11

Dubon 5.8

 

So it falls a little short but these are just numbers some system is spitting out, that's not a bad trade package at all IMO.

[adambr2]

I think you guys are reading way too much into the trade valuation site to try to gauge the market on Stroman and Giles. This is going to be a very expensive package. Arcia+Peralta+Ray, IMO, isn't getting it done. If there's a bidding war, you can throw the trade evaluators right out the window.

 

Every contender could use Stroman and Giles. Not only that but neither is a rental. So many contenders have numerous trade chips that could be used to outbid us instantly. Guys like Corey Ray are just not going to move the needle. Unless we're really willing to pony up, I just don't think this is realistic. They've already even said they want to deal these guys separately to maximize the value.

[Brew crew 92]

Giles missed time in June with elbow tendinitis > no way I want him, too scary.

[OldHeidelberg]

I think you guys are reading way too much into the trade valuation site to try to gauge the market on Stroman and Giles. This is going to be a very expensive package. Arcia+Peralta+Ray, IMO, isn't getting it done. If there's a bidding war, you can throw the trade evaluators right out the window.

 

Every contender could use Stroman and Giles. Not only that but neither is a rental. So many contenders have numerous trade chips that could be used to outbid us instantly. Guys like Corey Ray are just not going to move the needle. Unless we're really willing to pony up, I just don't think this is realistic. They've already even said they want to deal these guys separately to maximize the value.

 

Well now that it's out there it will be interesting to see how the deadline trades match up. I do agree that you overpay for pitching at the deadline in general and they are right to deal them separately, the combined deal is a pipe dream unless an elite prospect is involved.

 

I do think Brewer fans here weirdly underrate the value of their own players and overvalue other teams. I guess it's because we watch them so much closer. I look at the career number of guys like Stroman and Boyd and see another Davies yet guys talk about them demanding Hiura and Kyle Tucker and I just don't see it. I don't think I am reading too much into the site, they are trying to give a number for actual value not deadline value so we need to adjust for that. I mean at least it is a number from a neutral source and not just talk about hanging up the phone and the like.

[brewmann04]

I think DS will add an reliever and not a starter that we have been talking about just a hunch

[Wahoo Maniac]

I think you guys are reading way too much into the trade valuation site to try to gauge the market on Stroman and Giles. This is going to be a very expensive package. Arcia+Peralta+Ray, IMO, isn't getting it done. If there's a bidding war, you can throw the trade evaluators right out the window.

 

Every contender could use Stroman and Giles. Not only that but neither is a rental. So many contenders have numerous trade chips that could be used to outbid us instantly. Guys like Corey Ray are just not going to move the needle. Unless we're really willing to pony up, I just don't think this is realistic. They've already even said they want to deal these guys separately to maximize the value.

No, we're not reading too much into that site. He literally just chimed in saying what the numbers broke down too after it was already discussed a bit, not vice versa.

 

Yes, I know they've said they want to deal them separately but if one team is able to offer what they're looking for in totality then why would they do two different deals? Ray had a ton of value heading into this season and broke his finger in spring training then didn't tell anyone because he wanted to play. Nobody is putting any stock into his AAA numbers. His injury isn't career altering and now he's back. The only thing that sucks is him missing the first half of the season. He has plenty of value and very well might be less than 1yr away from MLB.

 

Of course they're going to be expensive. But Arcia, Peralta, Ray isn't remotely close to a cheap package value wise. It just matters how the Jays value a package like this over competing ones. Will other competing teams also view Stroman as the brand he is or the actual performer he is? Because his performance doesn't match his brand (ie he's performed like a really good mid-rotation while having the brand of a frontline starter)

[KeithStone53151]

 

Let's play the what if game. If Corey Ray looks really good and puts up strong numbers over the next 2 weeks in AA, any chance we can get value out of him in a trade? I feel like it would be heavily dependent on scouting, or making a trade with a bad franchise like the Marlins.

[wntrtxn21]

 

Let's play the what if game. If Corey Ray looks really good and puts up strong numbers over the next 2 weeks in AA, any chance we can get value out of him in a trade? I feel like it would be heavily dependent on scouting, or making a trade with a bad franchise like the Marlins.

 

Zero chance. Ray is playing himself out of top prospect status. 2016 at A+ .247/.307... 2017 again at A+ .238/.311... 2018 at AA .239/.323. 2019 before getting hurt at AAA .178/.259.. 49 Ks in 112 PAs. Until Ray proves he can hit better pitching, his value won't be anything other than a lower end of a package.

[wntrtxn21]

I think you guys are reading way too much into the trade valuation site to try to gauge the market on Stroman and Giles. This is going to be a very expensive package. Arcia+Peralta+Ray, IMO, isn't getting it done. If there's a bidding war, you can throw the trade evaluators right out the window.

 

Every contender could use Stroman and Giles. Not only that but neither is a rental. So many contenders have numerous trade chips that could be used to outbid us instantly. Guys like Corey Ray are just not going to move the needle. Unless we're really willing to pony up, I just don't think this is realistic. They've already even said they want to deal these guys separately to maximize the value.

No, we're not reading too much into that site. He literally just chimed in saying what the numbers broke down too after it was already discussed a bit, not vice versa.

 

Yes, I know they've said they want to deal them separately but if one team is able to offer what they're looking for in totality then why would they do two different deals? Ray had a ton of value heading into this season and broke his finger in spring training then didn't tell anyone because he wanted to play. Nobody is putting any stock into his AAA numbers. His injury isn't career altering and now he's back. The only thing that sucks is him missing the first half of the season. He has plenty of value and very well might be less than 1yr away from MLB.

 

Of course they're going to be expensive. But Arcia, Peralta, Ray isn't remotely close to a cheap package value wise. It just matters how the Jays value a package like this over competing ones. Will other competing teams also view Stroman as the brand he is or the actual performer he is? Because his performance doesn't match his brand (ie he's performed like a really good mid-rotation while having the brand of a frontline starter)

 

You value Arcia, Peralta, Ray highly. Many others look at how they are performing and don't see anywhere near what you do. Arcia is not playing that well. CC said his defense is lacking and he is hitting .238/.300.. The Jays have Galvis at SS and he is out performing Arcia. Peralta has been rocked consistently the last two years. He has been decent at times, but his lack of secondary pitches is a glaring weakness. Ray had one year where he hit a lot of HRs, but he hasn't hit above .240 from A+ through AAA ball. Right now none of the three would headline a package for Stroman.

[wntrtxn21]

I think you guys are reading way too much into the trade valuation site to try to gauge the market on Stroman and Giles. This is going to be a very expensive package. Arcia+Peralta+Ray, IMO, isn't getting it done. If there's a bidding war, you can throw the trade evaluators right out the window.

 

Every contender could use Stroman and Giles. Not only that but neither is a rental. So many contenders have numerous trade chips that could be used to outbid us instantly. Guys like Corey Ray are just not going to move the needle. Unless we're really willing to pony up, I just don't think this is realistic. They've already even said they want to deal these guys separately to maximize the value.

No, we're not reading too much into that site. He literally just chimed in saying what the numbers broke down too after it was already discussed a bit, not vice versa.

 

Yes, I know they've said they want to deal them separately but if one team is able to offer what they're looking for in totality then why would they do two different deals? Ray had a ton of value heading into this season and broke his finger in spring training then didn't tell anyone because he wanted to play. Nobody is putting any stock into his AAA numbers. His injury isn't career altering and now he's back. The only thing that sucks is him missing the first half of the season. He has plenty of value and very well might be less than 1yr away from MLB.

 

Of course they're going to be expensive. But Arcia, Peralta, Ray isn't remotely close to a cheap package value wise. It just matters how the Jays value a package like this over competing ones. Will other competing teams also view Stroman as the brand he is or the actual performer he is? Because his performance doesn't match his brand (ie he's performed like a really good mid-rotation while having the brand of a frontline starter)

 

You value Arcia, Peralta, Ray highly. Many others look at how they are performing and don't see anywhere near what you do. Arcia is not playing that well. CC said his defense is lacking and he is hitting .238/.300.. The Jays have Galvis at SS and he is out performing Arcia. Peralta has been rocked consistently the last two years. He has been decent at times, but his lack of secondary pitches is a glaring weakness. Ray had one year where he hit a lot of HRs, but he hasn't hit above .240 from A+ through AAA ball. Right now none of the three would headline a package for Stroman.

[Eye Black]

I think you guys are reading way too much into the trade valuation site to try to gauge the market on Stroman and Giles. This is going to be a very expensive package. Arcia+Peralta+Ray, IMO, isn't getting it done. If there's a bidding war, you can throw the trade evaluators right out the window.

 

Every contender could use Stroman and Giles. Not only that but neither is a rental. So many contenders have numerous trade chips that could be used to outbid us instantly. Guys like Corey Ray are just not going to move the needle. Unless we're really willing to pony up, I just don't think this is realistic. They've already even said they want to deal these guys separately to maximize the value.

Every team has a package of players they could put together that matches in terms of “trade value”, but the fit of the buyer’s assets with the preferences of the seller obviously matters most. In the case of the Blue Jays they are said to want starting pitching prospects. My assumption is if the Blue Jays packaged Stroman and Giles they would want a starting pitcher that projects to have a higher FV than Freddy Peralta (and higher likelihood to remain in as a starter).

[pacopete4]

-Sell Moose and bring up Shaw to play 3B.

-Sell Thames and let Aguilar play 1B.

-Sell Grandal and see what you have in Nottingham.

-Sell Chacin, is you can.

 

That should cover it for free agents to be. Stock up the farm again. Tell Moose and Yaz we will talk in the winter when we’ve figured out this mess of a pitching staff.

[Brew crew 92]

-Sell Moose and bring up Shaw to play 3B.

-Sell Thames and let Aguilar play 1B.

-Sell Grandal and see what you have in Nottingham.

-Sell Chacin, is you can.

 

That should cover it for free agents to be. Stock up the farm again. Tell Moose and Yaz we will talk in the winter when we’ve figured out this mess of a pitching staff.

 

Not going to stock the farm selling those 4 players.

[adambr2]

Chacin is worth nothing. If anyone will take him, it's a salary dump.

 

I'm fine with selling Thames and starting Jesus full time, but I wouldn't just give him away.

 

Trading the rentals are probably a good move. I just don't think the return will overwhelm.

[pacopete4]

-Sell Moose and bring up Shaw to play 3B.

-Sell Thames and let Aguilar play 1B.

-Sell Grandal and see what you have in Nottingham.

-Sell Chacin, is you can.

 

That should cover it for free agents to be. Stock up the farm again. Tell Moose and Yaz we will talk in the winter when we’ve figured out this mess of a pitching staff.

 

Not going to stock the farm selling those 4 players.

 

Yeah, you’re right. Those players are worthless. Wouldn’t get anyone of promise for them. No contending team could use an all star catcher, third basemen, or a .900 OPS’ing 1B. What was I thinking...