Dubon being called up

[OnTheBlack]

I don't think Arcia's been the real problem on offense this year. After all he's got the same amount of HR and almost as many RBI as Braun batting either 8th or 9th while striking out less. But this organization seems to have an offensive depth issue and it would be great to see Dubon be able to hold his own against major league pitching. This exposure to major league pitching comes at a time when it should help his development.

 

 

I don't think Arcia's been a problem at all this year. If he wasn't so highly regarded, he'd probably be the one tearing up AAA and we'd all be that much more excited about him, but because he struggled when he was a very young player, and hasn't been the most consistent, and now this year mostly IMO because up until this point, we've lost a ton of production from CF, Shaw and Aguilar, more focus is being put on Arcia.

 

Arcia's 24, he's an elite defensive SS IMO, something that's getting harder to see using the metrics as shifting becomes more prevalent and he's being asked to play all over the place. He's certainly got issues with plate discipline, but any just about any other 24 year old playing a position like SS or Catcher would be given more slack than him.

 

I hope Dubon comes up and is as good as some believe he will be. In a perfect world, you'd be able to use Arcia, Dubon, or a combination of the two until Turang develops and reaches the big leagues. That's 3 years away however in a optimistic outlook. A lot could happen between now and then. But I defensively think people are a little too hard on Arcia. Maybe it's because we're in another golden age of SS's with sooo many productive ones all around baseball.

[Brew crew 92]

If I’m Stearns I option Arcia, and give Dubon a real trial, to see if we can add a better hitter than Arcia, to this lineup. I personally believe him to be a better hitter. The defense, at least according to CC could be closer than we think, but, nonetheless, I want the potential of the better bat, especially with this offense being proven incapable of consistent run scoring, without benefit of the big fly.

[Thurston Fluff]

I think WAR has to be taken with a grain of salt when it comes to defense first players. Defense is very hard to accurately assess on it's own and even harder to determine how valuable it is compared to offensive production. I also think defensive value fluctuates with what type of pitching staff any particular team has. It's just too fluid to measure in a fixed formula IMHO.

[Wahoo Maniac]

.284 .342 .407 .749 - Orlando Arcia's career MILB numbers while being 2 years younger than Dubon at every level.

 

.301 .348 .424 .772 - Mauricio Dubon's career MILB numbers.

 

Not much difference. It'll be fun to see if Mauricio can translate his MILB numbers to some success at this level. We could use his versatility. He's not an all world defender but Arcia hasn't been very good either this year so defense is probably a wash.

This is false. Arcia was not 2yrs younger per level than Dubon. Dubon's first exposure to A+ he played half a season at 2.7yrs young while Arcia was 3.7yrs young. His first exposure to AA he played half a season and was 3.4yrs young while Arcia was 4.1yrs young. His first exposure to AAA he played half a season and was 4.4yrs young while Arcia was 5.5yrs young.

 

Also, Dubon's bat profile is much better than Arcia's. Arcia was, and still is, a glove first player. Dubon is the opposite. He's a high contact, low K, high BA hitter with a great understanding of the zone while offering much better base stealing/running. He'll hit more doubles/triples just not HR. Dubon will most likely be a solid SS while having a solid arm (plenty good to play SS but not great). The way Arcia is playing defense this year I'd bank on Dubon not being worse. Dubon has the potential to be a plus bat he just won't have the over the wall power.

 

 

 

You realize that Arcia was born in August of '94 while Dubon was born in July of '94. So Dubon is older.

 

You also realize that the -3.7 or whatever is just relative to the other players at a given level? So you have to actually look at the players age HE was at each level, not just the average ages of the other players during the time he spent at that level.

 

Arcia at 18 played in low A. Spent the whole year there.

19 he moved up to HiA.

20 AA

21 AAA/55 games at the big league level.

 

Dubon-18 he played at Rookie level.

19-1/3rd of a year at low A.

20-spent half the year in LowA and HiA.

21-Again, half the year at HiA and AA.

22-Half the year in AA then moved up to AAA.

23-AAA

24-AAA-Now called up due to injury.

 

Arcia minor league line-.284/.342/.407 OPS of .749

Dubon-301/.348/.424 OPS of .772

 

 

So it's not really false, Arcia is 4 years futher along than the OLDER Dubon and their lines in the minors are similar. Plus, Arcia's a superior defensive player. Probably by a wide margin, but we'll have to see as it's pretty tough to accurately compare minor league defensive stats to big league defensive stats,

 

But I'm just curious, what do you think Arcia would have done if he'd have been able to spend an additional 4 years in the minor leagues? You think just maybe his offensive production would be better if he was facing minor league pitching instead of big league pitching?

 

Just something to keep in mind before we write off a 24 year old SS who's already proven he's a very-very good defensive shortstop despite being an up and down offensive player.

 

So, one player has spent the last 4 seasons playing in the big leagues and the other has spent the last 4 years playing in the minor leagues. And you think it's equal to compare those players based on their minor league stats?

 

Also, Dubon's bat profile is much better than Arcia's. Arcia was, and still is, a glove first player. Dubon is the opposite. He's a high contact, low K, high BA hitter with a great understanding of the zone while offering much better base stealing/running.

 

Isn't "high contact," and "low K," redundant? And again, given that Arcia was playing in the majors for the last 4 years while Dubon was improving his offensive line in the minors, I think it's pretty fair we throw this out.

Yes, those extra 2 weeks Dubon's been breathing longer than Arcia is a massive difference maker. You're right!

 

TigerUppercut I assumed was referring to age relative to level because one's actual age at a certain level is irrelevant so why even refer to that? For example, if Arcia was 20yrs old in AA and the league average age was 20yrs old while Dubon was 20yrs old in AA but the league average age was 22yrs old then what would you conclude? You "should" conclude that Dubon is facing tougher competition from older, more experienced/advanced players on average and factor that into the evaluation process. You do realize that's how it works, right???

 

Arcia is a glove first player, always has been. His bat profile was always he "might" be an average hitter with some pop but he he's a plus SS having a plus arm whereas Dubon's bat profile has always been above avg to plus (hitting for a high BA) playing average+ defense at SS with a solid arm (he'd be better at 2b though given how his range/arm plays). Get the difference? That being Arcia was most likely going to be a below-average hitter (spoiler: he is) but could be average if reaches his potential while Dubon profiles to hit for a high BA being an above avg/plus bat. Profile (approach is part of that) and production at age relative to level are things that matter.

 

Also, Dubon was playing HS ball in the states when Arcia was playing pro ball in Venezuala, which allowed him to head straight to A ball to start the season whereas a guy like Dubon enters rookie ball - that's common. That difference played a role in each player's development. Not every player develops at the same pace either. Not every team pushes their prospects forward at the same pace. Not every org has other/better players who will move quicker ahead of them taking a spot (Dubon's played same positions alongside some great talents in Boston as well as others who've made it to MLB while Arcia had nobody around him). If Arcia had a solid glove instead of winning the GG in AA he most certainly wouldn't have been up. But when you have the defensive ability he does you're going to be called up early regardless of whether or not the bat still needs more development, especially when he was able to walk right into the starting role in MLB. To answer your question, if Arcia repeated each level (A+/AA/AAA) where he was now at the age relative to level that Dubon was at, which you would have seen is 0.5-1yr difference, I've no idea if his numbers drastically improve. Given his profile, which has been spot on, I doubt it. Maybe he hits the same, maybe he hits slightly worse, maybe he hits slightly better.

 

Ever think Arcia was just overrated? He went from being unranked after A ball to just sneeking inside the Top 100 after A+ to Top 10 after AA. He went from a "below average" bat projection to an "average" bat projection after he posted his 120+ wrc+ being 4yrs young for level in A+ and AA. Think about that - 4yrs young posting good numbers offensively and scouts still said he was going to max out as an average hitter in MLB. And even with him winning the GG in AA that doesn't mean he was going to be a GG caliber player. He's been a plus defender until this year but everyone keeps saying he's been elite - no he hasn't. No analytics we have access too nor the eye test says he's been elite at any point. Plus defender? No doubt.

 

Additionally, you can keep saying Arcia has 4yrs of MLB experience but he actually doesn't. He played 2 months in 2016, all of 2017, most of 2018, half of 2019. That amounts to around 2.75 seasons worth of MLB baseball. Also, you're intentionally refusing to mention that Dubon was going to be our starting SS LAST May, when Arcia had a grand total of 1.5yrs MLB experience then lost an entire season with the ACL injury. So you can continue to harp on the 4yr difference when in reality, if there was no injury, it would have been 1.5yrs - you can stop trying sway people into thinking he's just been sitting in the minors the past 1.5yrs padding his stats when he missed all last year due to injury then of course they're going to keep him in AAA to get reacclimated due to the injury. Dubon, to start AAA last year at 3.5yrs young for level, posted 343 BA with 922 OPS. Arcia, when sent down to AAA last year was 3.5yrs young for level, posted a 341 BA with 911 OPS. Almost identical. So you and others on here are now going to think that validates your opinion that they're similar bats, right? Except lets now factor in that Arcia posted those numbers already having 1.75yrs straight MLB experience while Dubon spent the previous year splitting AA/AAA. Doesn't speak to highly of Arcia's bat compared to Dubon's, does it?

 

And, no, saying high contact/low K isn't redundant. High contact refers to the ability to not only put the ball in play but also put the bat on the ball to foul pitches off. Arcia is a relatively high contact bat and always has been but he still K's 20% of the time. His bat to ball/contact skills don't match Dubon. His K rate also rose every level he advanced in the minors while Dubon's stayed the same with advancement. Arcia will walk more than Dubon, most likely, but part of that is Dubon's approach. If he sees a pitch he likes early in the count he's attacking and due to his high bat to ball/contact skills he's typically putting it in play so it's difficult to draw more walks when that happens.

 

No, you don't ignore Dubon's minor league numbers because Arcia was in MLB. That's straight absurdity. You might as well say we should ignore Hiura as a prospect because he was in college while Arcia was in MLB.

[willie key]

I think wahoo maniac just threw his hat into the ring as an author of the Great American Novel

 

Dubon vs Arcia

[Wahoo Maniac]

I think wahoo maniac just threw his hat into the ring as an author of the Great American Novel

 

Dubon vs Arcia

Novel drops this Fall

[homer]

"He was the best of shortstops, he was the worst of shortstops..."

[willie key]

I think wahoo maniac just threw his hat into the ring as an author of the Great American Novel

 

Dubon vs Arcia

Novel drops this Fall

 

 

That’s quicker than the dude who writes game of thrones books at least

[MrTPlush]

Yes, those extra 2 weeks Dubon's been breathing longer than Arcia is a massive difference maker. You're right!

 

TigerUppercut I assumed was referring to age relative to level because one's actual age at a certain level is irrelevant so why even refer to that? For example, if Arcia was 20yrs old in AA and the league average age was 20yrs old while Dubon was 20yrs old in AA but the league average age was 22yrs old then what would you conclude? You "should" conclude that Dubon is facing tougher competition from older, more experienced/advanced players on average and factor that into the evaluation process. You do realize that's how it works, right???

 

Arcia is a glove first player, always has been. His bat profile was always he "might" be an average hitter with some pop but he he's a plus SS having a plus arm whereas Dubon's bat profile has always been above avg to plus (hitting for a high BA) playing average+ defense at SS with a solid arm (he'd be better at 2b though given how his range/arm plays). Get the difference? That being Arcia was most likely going to be a below-average hitter (spoiler: he is) but could be average if reaches his potential while Dubon profiles to hit for a high BA being an above avg/plus bat. Profile (approach is part of that) and production at age relative to level are things that matter.

 

Also, Dubon was playing HS ball in the states when Arcia was playing pro ball in Venezuala, which allowed him to head straight to A ball to start the season whereas a guy like Dubon enters rookie ball - that's common. That difference played a role in each player's development. Not every player develops at the same pace either. Not every team pushes their prospects forward at the same pace. Not every org has other/better players who will move quicker ahead of them taking a spot (Dubon's played same positions alongside some great talents in Boston as well as others who've made it to MLB while Arcia had nobody around him). If Arcia had a solid glove instead of winning the GG in AA he most certainly wouldn't have been up. But when you have the defensive ability he does you're going to be called up early regardless of whether or not the bat still needs more development, especially when he was able to walk right into the starting role in MLB. To answer your question, if Arcia repeated each level (A+/AA/AAA) where he was now at the age relative to level that Dubon was at, which you would have seen is 0.5-1yr difference, I've no idea if his numbers drastically improve. Given his profile, which has been spot on, I doubt it. Maybe he hits the same, maybe he hits slightly worse, maybe he hits slightly better.

 

Ever think Arcia was just overrated? He went from being unranked after A ball to just sneeking inside the Top 100 after A+ to Top 10 after AA. He went from a "below average" bat projection to an "average" bat projection after he posted his 120+ wrc+ being 4yrs young for level in A+ and AA. Think about that - 4yrs young posting good numbers offensively and scouts still said he was going to max out as an average hitter in MLB. And even with him winning the GG in AA that doesn't mean he was going to be a GG caliber player. He's been a plus defender until this year but everyone keeps saying he's been elite - no he hasn't. No analytics we have access too nor the eye test says he's been elite at any point. Plus defender? No doubt.

 

Additionally, you can keep saying Arcia has 4yrs of MLB experience but he actually doesn't. He played 2 months in 2016, all of 2017, most of 2018, half of 2019. That amounts to around 2.75 seasons worth of MLB baseball. Also, you're intentionally refusing to mention that Dubon was going to be our starting SS LAST May, when Arcia had a grand total of 1.5yrs MLB experience then lost an entire season with the ACL injury. So you can continue to harp on the 4yr difference when in reality, if there was no injury, it would have been 1.5yrs - you can stop trying sway people into thinking he's just been sitting in the minors the past 1.5yrs padding his stats when he missed all last year due to injury then of course they're going to keep him in AAA to get reacclimated due to the injury. Dubon, to start AAA last year at 3.5yrs young for level, posted 343 BA with 922 OPS. Arcia, when sent down to AAA last year was 3.5yrs young for level, posted a 341 BA with 911 OPS. Almost identical. So you and others on here are now going to think that validates your opinion that they're similar bats, right? Except lets now factor in that Arcia posted those numbers already having 1.75yrs straight MLB experience while Dubon spent the previous year splitting AA/AAA. Doesn't speak to highly of Arcia's bat compared to Dubon's, does it?

 

And, no, saying high contact/low K isn't redundant. High contact refers to the ability to not only put the ball in play but also put the bat on the ball to foul pitches off. Arcia is a relatively high contact bat and always has been but he still K's 20% of the time. His bat to ball/contact skills don't match Dubon. His K rate also rose every level he advanced in the minors while Dubon's stayed the same with advancement. Arcia will walk more than Dubon, most likely, but part of that is Dubon's approach. If he sees a pitch he likes early in the count he's attacking and due to his high bat to ball/contact skills he's typically putting it in play so it's difficult to draw more walks when that happens.

 

No, you don't ignore Dubon's minor league numbers because Arcia was in MLB. That's straight absurdity. You might as well say we should ignore Hiura as a prospect because he was in college while Arcia was in MLB.

 

[OnTheBlack]

I'm not sure if this is War in piece of something someone who is really interested in Math from the U of M wrote out in a shack in Montana!

 

TigerUppercut I assumed was referring to age relative to level because one's actual age at a certain level is irrelevant so why even refer to that? For example, if Arcia was 20yrs old in AA and the league average age was 20yrs old while Dubon was 20yrs old in AA but the league average age was 22yrs old then what would you conclude? You "should" conclude that Dubon is facing tougher competition from older, more experienced/advanced players on average and factor that into the evaluation process. You do realize that's how it works, right???

 

It is? The age a player is relative to what level he's at is "irrelevant?" Huh. You may be the only person that believes that. I think the age you're at each level is rather telling. But maybe I'm weird like that.

 

I guess I'm just weird and I take what someone says at face value. For instance, if you say Player A was 20 when they went through AA and player B was 24, that's pretty straight forward. I don't find that irrelevant and then go and look at what BBreference says the average age of all the other players in the league were.

 

But...the most important thing, you're just making up hypotheticals. They weren't both the same age the first time in AA and the average age when Arcia was in AA to when Dubon was in AA didn't just magically jump by two years.

 

You DO realize how that works.....right?

 

Arcia is a glove first player, always has been. His bat profile was always he "might" be an average hitter with some pop but he he's a plus SS having a plus arm whereas Dubon's bat profile has always been above avg to plus (hitting for a high BA) playing average+ defense at SS with a solid arm (he'd be better at 2b though given how his range/arm plays). Get the difference? That being Arcia was most likely going to be a below-average hitter (spoiler: he is) but could be average if reaches his potential while Dubon profiles to hit for a high BA being an above avg/plus bat. Profile (approach is part of that) and production at age relative to level are things that matter.

 

 

WRONG----MLB Pipeline's scouting report on Arcia.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/scouting-report-on-brewers-orlando-arcia/c-153628114

 

This was 4 years ago when he was finishing up his AA year just before he was called up to the big leagues. Oh, and again, he's YOUNGER than Dubon.

 

Strengths

At one point, scouts may have viewed Arcia as a defense-first shortstop. His good hitting experience in the 2014 Venezuelan Winter League provided the first clues of his evident offensive maturation.

At Double-A Biloxi this past year, Arcia hit .307, the best average of his career. He notched 37 doubles and eight home runs. Both were career bests. Arcia should be viewed as a complete player capable of providing offense as well as stellar defense at shortstop.

His on-base percentage and his ability to consistently "make things happen" have positioned Arcia as a promising top prospect.

Arcia completes his multiple-tool offerings with good speed. He is capable of stealing 20 or more bases annually. In addition, he is able to score runs by taking an extra base when appropriate.

 

See, this brings us back to the fact that Dubon's prospect ranking keeps going up(though never actually hitting 100) over the FOUR SEASONS since Arcia became a major league player.

 

Also, Dubon was playing HS ball in the states when Arcia was playing pro ball in Venezuala, which allowed him to head straight to A ball to start the season whereas a guy like Dubon enters rookie ball - that's common. That difference played a role in each player's development. Not every player develops at the same pace either. Not every team pushes their prospects forward at the same pace. Not every org has other/better players who will move quicker ahead of them taking a spot (Dubon's played same positions alongside some great talents in Boston as well as others who've made it to MLB while Arcia had nobody around him).

 

Thanks for the info on how not everyone develops at the same age. Truly innovating stuff.

 

Also; So what? Not only has it been a few years since Dubon was in Boston's farm system, 2016 to be exact, but who cares about the players playing around you? Are we evaluating team record or individual performance? Baseball is essentially an individual sport. It's a series of individual matchup's. What other prospects happened to play in Boston have zero to do with anything.

 

 

If Arcia had a solid glove instead of winning the GG in AA he most certainly wouldn't have been up. But when you have the defensive ability he does you're going to be called up early regardless of whether or not the bat still needs more development, especially when he was able to walk right into the starting role in MLB. To answer your question, if Arcia repeated each level (A+/AA/AAA) where he was now at the age relative to level that Dubon was at, which you would have seen is 0.5-1yr difference, I've no idea if his numbers drastically improve. Given his profile, which has been spot on, I doubt it. Maybe he hits the same, maybe he hits slightly worse, maybe he hits slightly better.

 

 

Here's what we DON'T have to guess about. Arcia went through the minors and reached the majors four years earlier than Dubon and put up similar offensive numbers.

 

On top of that, he was a elite defensive SS. You seem really intent on guessing how much younger he would have likely been compared to the average player along the way, but it's really irrelevant as Dubon and Arcia are the same age(well, actually, Dubon is older).

Ever think Arcia was just overrated?

 

Nope. Ever think just maybe you're overrating Dubon given he's had an extra 4 years in the minors to improve his offensive line while Arcia's played SS for a team that was 1 win away from a WS(and excelled in that post-season)?

He went from being unranked after A ball to just sneeking inside the Top 100 after A+ to Top 10 after AA.

 

Ok, so when he was 19 and performing extremely well in A ball he became a top 100 prospect at 19 and then after he had a big year at AA he moved up into the top 10 at 20 years old.

 

 

But this is all about Dubon and Arcia, right? So somehow Arcia gets knocked for being ranked in the top 10 among prospects when he was 20....this means what exactly? Arcia .307/.347/.453 in AA. Yeah, I get your point. A GG'er who puts up a line as good as any Dubon has MUST have been overrated?

 

Ever think you're just trying WAAAY to hard to make facts that don't fit some strange narrative? So a no-doubt defensive stud puts up back to back really good offensive years and he's overrated?

 

Think about that - 4yrs young posting good numbers offensively and scouts still said he was going to max out as an average hitter in MLB.

 

Lets use MLB Pipeline, hmm?

19 years old Arcia

Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 35 | Run: 55 | Arm: 60 | Field: 60 | Overall: 60

24 year old Dubon

Hit: 55 | Power: 35 | Run: 55 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50

 

Well Gee, tell me more about what the scouts were saying? Don't...you know, actually use facts, just tell me what "the scouts" as though they're a single entity had to say about each player?

 

And then what did that 19 year old do? He went and raked in AA and in the Fall League.

 

19 year old Dubon was playing a third of a season in LowA ball.

 

Additionally, you can keep saying Arcia has 4yrs of MLB experience but he actually doesn't. He played 2 months in 2016, all of 2017, most of 2018, half of 2019. That amounts to around 2.75 seasons worth of MLB baseball.

 

Had I "kept" saying that? Ok, came up four SEASONS ago and became the starting SS for the Brewers and has continued to hold that job in the four SEASONS since.

 

How many seasons has Dubon?

 

Also, you're intentionally refusing to mention that Dubon was going to be our starting SS LAST May, when Arcia had a grand total of 1.5yrs MLB experience then lost an entire season with the ACL injury.

 

 

Not intentionally doing anything, I'm dealing in facts. You're the one who's guessing that Dubon would have been called up and that he then automatically WOULD have held the job.

 

Yet a year later and when he does finally get the call, the Manager has already said he's going to be going back down. So...ya sure he was going to be the Starting SS last year?? And if so, mind if I borrow that crystal ball. I'd LOVE to check the lottery numbers for this week.

 

 

I see one dealing in fact, one in supposition and obfuscation. I'm just telling you what happened. You're trying to create excuses and reasons for why that happened.

So you can continue to harp on the 4yr difference when in reality, if there was no injury, it would have been 1.5yrs

 

So I can stop stating facts because you can imagine a different scenario playing out! Well! Fantastic! I think you're looking for fantasy baseball where players don't get injured and you can pretend things are different than they are.

 

What REALLY happened was Dubon was never called up, he did get hurt, but he STILL wasn't called up after a full half of a YEAR getting "acclimated" to AAA...and yet they've already said he's still going back down.

 

you can stop trying sway people into thinking he's just been sitting in the minors the past 1.5yrs padding his stats when he missed all last year due to injury then of course they're going to keep him in AAA to get reacclimated due to the injury.

 

 

Wow...you really seem to place a high value on my powers of persuasion. Again, I'm just simply stating FACTS. You're the one engaging in "what if's," and what WOULD have happened if these things hadn't happened. I'm just simply telling you what did. And you don't like it because it doesn't fit your narrative.

 

Oh, and it's 4 seasons. Arcia's spent parts of 4 SEASONS in the big leagues while Dubon has one AB. The years vs seasons things seems really bothersome to you because it doesn't support your case, right? And again, Dubon is older. So then if Dubon is so much better offensively than Arcia, wouldn't you think their career minor league stats would represent that?

 

I mean, YOU SAID, Arcia was only called up because of his glove. This of course setting aside that in 2015 Arcia's "hit tool" was a 50 and Dubon's "hit tool" 4 years later is a 55.

 

Yet....301/.348/.424 .772 OPS

vs .284/.342 /.407 .749 OPS

 

One of these two was in the big leagues at age 21 and is a FAR superior defensive player.

The other is older, inferior defensively and has played almost exclusively in the minors through age 24.

 

Kinda tells a story, doesn't it?

 

 

you can stop trying sway people into thinking he's just been sitting in the minors the past 1.5yrs padding his stats when he missed all last year due to injury then of course they're going to keep him in AAA to get reacclimated due to the injury. Dubon, to start AAA last year at 3.5yrs young for level, posted 343 BA with 922 OPS. Arcia, when sent down to AAA last year was 3.5yrs young for level, posted a 341 BA with 911 OPS. Almost identical. So you and others on here are now going to think that validates your opinion that they're similar bats, right? Except lets now factor in that Arcia posted those numbers already having 1.75yrs straight MLB experience while Dubon spent the previous year splitting AA/AAA. Doesn't speak to highly of Arcia's bat compared to Dubon's, does it?

 

 

I really don't know what point you're making here OTHER than when Arcia was sent down for a short stretch, he hit as well as the VASTLY superior offensive weapon that is Dubon.

 

And yet using your logic(if you really want to call it that) you use his major league production and that's somehow a plus for Dubon? Hmm...sound logic. The short little stint over the last 4 seasons they were at the same level, Arcia showed he was every bit as good as Dubon, even if it was a small sample size, but he gets knocked for being respected enough to get called up and Dubon somehow gets credit for NOT making it to the majors yet?

 

And, no, saying high contact/low K isn't redundant.

 

Sure it is.

 

His K rate also rose every level he advanced in the minors while Dubon's stayed the same with advancement.

 

 

Arcia struck out 73 times in 552 PA's at age 20 in AA

Dubon struck out 76 times in 545 PA's at age 22 split between AA and AAA.

 

Tell me how much better Dubon's K rate was!!!

His K rate also rose every level he advanced in the minors while Dubon's stayed the same with advancement. Arcia will walk more than Dubon, most likely, but part of that is Dubon's approach. If he sees a pitch he likes early in the count he's attacking and due to his high bat to ball/contact skills he's typically putting it in play so it's difficult to draw more walks when that happens.

 

Yeah, it raised so much that despite being TWO YEARS younger than Dubon, he had a lower K rate than Dubon had.

 

Who are you arguing for again?

 

And now you're saying Arcia will walk more, but it's only because of Dubon's magical bat to ball skills and as we all know, it's so tough to walk when you just always hit he ball. The only problem of course is that Arcia actually struck out less when he was 20 in AA than Dubon when he was 22 in AA/AAA.

 

So again, Dubon higher K rate but he'll walk less, but it's alright because his bat to ball skills are SO great.

 

 

This is where I ask the question, how many games have you actually watched Dubon play in person? Never get an answer to these questions.

No, you don't ignore Dubon's minor league numbers because Arcia was in MLB. That's straight absurdity. You might as well say we should ignore Hiura as a prospect because he was in college while Arcia was in MLB.

 

 

No, what's "straight absurdity" is how you try to deflect everything.

 

The minor league statistics are roughly equal. This despite the fact that Arcia was in the big leagues and has 1450 PA's in the majors while the OLDER Dubon has 1.

Yes, those extra 2 weeks Dubon's been breathing longer than Arcia is a massive difference maker. You're right!

 

 

STUNNED!! Stunned I tell ya that this went right over your head. Now...see the point HERE was the OLDER player was the one who had yet to reach the big leagues until he finally got AN AB(and they've already announced he'd be going back down) while the YOUNGER of the two is the guy who's spent part of the last 4 seasons in the big leagues.

[OnTheBlack]

Above replacement level is a pretty low bar to set and he was -0.4 last year so he wasn't above replacement level either. He's at 0.9 WAR in 1,450 plate appearances in his career which isn't that much better than replacement level.

 

Baseball Reference has him at 0.1 WAR for 2018, FWIW.

 

And again, it goes back to how you define productive. He’s 24 and hasn’t been below replacement level in his full seasons in MLB. I think expecting Dubon to be more “productive” than that should be viewed with some skepticism.

 

 

I question defensive WAR for MIF'ers more and more with all the shifting that goes on. I believe you can see that Arcia is an elite defender.

 

I hope Dubon can be this vastly superior player that Maniac would like us to believe, but there's not a whole lot to believe that's the case at this point beyond hope. HOPING that he's going to come up and have one of those really nice stretches before the league catches up to him and provide a boost.

 

I mean...if the Brewers thought he was that good, wouldn't have have gotten the call instead of the career journeyman?

 

I think it's pretty fair to be skeptical that he's going to be an upgrade over Arcia myself...but more I just think it's a big comical the excuses made for one player and the reasons for dismissing another.

[adambr2]

It's fair to be skeptical of Dubon being an upgrade over Arcia. But it seems like a good time to remind those who often point to the defensive skills of Arcia of this.

 

 

Arcia's own manager hasn't been happy with his defense. So much so, that they brought up Saladino, who has stolen a great deal of playing time from Arcia since his callup, and surely isn't here for his bat.

[Lathund]

I question defensive WAR for MIF'ers more and more with all the shifting that goes on. I believe you can see that Arcia is an elite defender.

 

What aspect of DRS, UZR and FRAA and their handling of shifting leads to Arcia's defense being misrepresented relative to his peers? Even peers on teams that shift as much as the Brewers? And since the metrics handle shifting, or more specifically which plays are made by which position as a result of shifting, differently, which one handles it best and thus would represent his defense the best?

 

 

To me there are two different questions; is Arcia an elite defender? and is Arcia an elite defender at shortstop? I think at least some of the disagreement about Arcia's defense comes from people discussing these two questions interchangeably, when to me they are quite different. The other aspect is looking at his defensive ability or defensive "tools" on the one hand, and actual performance on defense on the other. Arcia undeniably has the tools to be an excellent defender, but does it result in a corresponding ability to convert batted balls into outs?

[Oxy]

I question defensive WAR for MIF'ers more and more with all the shifting that goes on. I believe you can see that Arcia is an elite defender.

 

What aspect of DRS, UZR and FRAA and their handling of shifting leads to Arcia's defense being misrepresented relative to his peers? Even peers on teams that shift as much as the Brewers? And since the metrics handle shifting, or more specifically which plays are made by which position as a result of shifting, differently, which one handles it best and thus would represent his defense the best?

 

 

To me there are two different questions; is Arcia an elite defender? and is Arcia an elite defender at shortstop? I think at least some of the disagreement about Arcia's defense comes from people discussing these two questions interchangeably, when to me they are quite different. The other aspect is looking at his defensive ability or defensive "tools" on the one hand, and actual performance on defense on the other. Arcia undeniably has the tools to be an excellent defender, but does it result in a corresponding ability to convert batted balls into outs?

 

I think this is the big one. There have been too many times this year where I thought "Arcia should have made that play" and not nearly enough times this year where I thought "WOW! I can't believe he made that play!" Now, a lot of that is probably being spoiled by expectations, so numbers could/should back that up those statements if possible.

[Brew crew 92]

Offensively Arcia has bad mechanics, I think we all know this already. He has the most irritating left foot I’ve ever seen. Defensively I agree with the brewers, underperforming his ability. Period. Moving forward can he change? I’m not taking that chance if I’m the brewers.

 

Haven’t seen Dubon, outside of the AB vs Vazquez, but I saw more hitting skill in that AB than I’ve seen from Arcia in 300+ games.

[Wahoo Maniac]

I'm not sure if this is War in piece of something someone who is really interested in Math from the U of M wrote out in a shack in Montana!

 

TigerUppercut I assumed was referring to age relative to level because one's actual age at a certain level is irrelevant so why even refer to that? For example, if Arcia was 20yrs old in AA and the league average age was 20yrs old while Dubon was 20yrs old in AA but the league average age was 22yrs old then what would you conclude? You "should" conclude that Dubon is facing tougher competition from older, more experienced/advanced players on average and factor that into the evaluation process. You do realize that's how it works, right???

 

It is? The age a player is relative to what level he's at is "irrelevant?" Huh. You may be the only person that believes that. I think the age you're at each level is rather telling. But maybe I'm weird like that.

I literally stopped reading your entire response after your first sentence because if this is how you're starting it then the rest is a waste of my time. Just wow...

 

What matters is how many years young you are for the level and not your actual age at that level. My example above is clear as day. TigerUppercut said Dubon was 2yrs older for every level than Arcia. I disagreed and stated why. The problem is you seem to think that Arcia being 20 at some level is more important than what his age is relative to the others in that league that particular season.

[Wahoo Maniac]

Offensively Arcia has bad mechanics, I think we all know this already. He has the most irritating right foot I’ve ever seen. Defensively I agree with the brewers, underperforming his ability. Period. Moving forward can he change? I’m not taking that chance if I’m the brewers.

 

Haven’t seen Dubon, outside of the AB vs Vazquez, but I saw more hitting skill in that AB than I’ve seen from Arcia in 300+ games.

And it's clear as day. Also clear as day is Arcia isn't remotely close to being an elite defender. If he was than Saladino wouldn't have been called up with Perez being DFA'd. You can live with Arcia's insanely inconsistent bat if he's playing elite defense. But he's not.

 

Prior to Dubon tearing his ACL (May 2018) his grades were 55/40/60/55/55. It mirrors his performance at every level as well.

That's easy Top 150 but because he wasn't a 1st/2nd rd pick or touted international signing he gets looked over. It's fair for his power/run/fielding grades to drop this year given you have to wait and see how the injury affects his play but it appears that he's right back where he left off. Since May 9 he's slashing 336/373/938 (124 wrc+) lowering his K rate to 12.7%.

 

Dubon has 6yrs cheap control and is ready to take over at SS. Arcia has 3.5yrs left, was sent to AAA twice last year and 2.5 months into this season Saladino was called up to take away half his starts thus far. I still think Arcia is a starting MLB SS. I just don't think he should be our starting SS moving forward given Dubon is ready.

[PeaveyFury]

Offensively Arcia has bad mechanics, I think we all know this already. He has the most irritating right foot I’ve ever seen. Defensively I agree with the brewers, underperforming his ability. Period. Moving forward can he change? I’m not taking that chance if I’m the brewers.

 

Haven’t seen Dubon, outside of the AB vs Vazquez, but I saw more hitting skill in that AB than I’ve seen from Arcia in 300+ games.

And it's clear as day. Also clear as day is Arcia isn't remotely close to being an elite defender. If he was than Saladino wouldn't have been called up with Perez being DFA'd. You can live with Arcia's insanely inconsistent bat if he's playing elite defense. But he's not.

 

Prior to Dubon tearing his ACL (May 2018) his grades were 55/40/60/55/55. It mirrors his performance at every level as well.

That's easy Top 150 but because he wasn't a 1st/2nd rd pick or touted international signing he gets looked over. It's fair for his power/run/fielding grades to drop this year given you have to wait and see how the injury affects his play but it appears that he's right back where he left off. Since May 9 he's slashing 336/373/938 (124 wrc+) lowering his K rate to 12.7%.

 

Dubon has 6yrs cheap control and is ready to take over at SS. Arcia has 3.5yrs left, was sent to AAA twice last year and 2.5 months into this season Saladino was called up to take away half his starts thus far. I still think Arcia is a starting MLB SS. I just don't think he should be our starting SS moving forward given Dubon is ready.

 

I just don't see Arcia as being the problem with our offense this year. He's a SS who plays good (not elite this year) defense and has an OPS over .700. Though possible, I doubt that a rookie middle IF not named Hiura is going to outproduce that in their first big league stint.

[Wahoo Maniac]

Offensively Arcia has bad mechanics, I think we all know this already. He has the most irritating right foot I’ve ever seen. Defensively I agree with the brewers, underperforming his ability. Period. Moving forward can he change? I’m not taking that chance if I’m the brewers.

 

Haven’t seen Dubon, outside of the AB vs Vazquez, but I saw more hitting skill in that AB than I’ve seen from Arcia in 300+ games.

And it's clear as day. Also clear as day is Arcia isn't remotely close to being an elite defender. If he was than Saladino wouldn't have been called up with Perez being DFA'd. You can live with Arcia's insanely inconsistent bat if he's playing elite defense. But he's not.

 

Prior to Dubon tearing his ACL (May 2018) his grades were 55/40/60/55/55. It mirrors his performance at every level as well.

That's easy Top 150 but because he wasn't a 1st/2nd rd pick or touted international signing he gets looked over. It's fair for his power/run/fielding grades to drop this year given you have to wait and see how the injury affects his play but it appears that he's right back where he left off. Since May 9 he's slashing 336/373/938 (124 wrc+) lowering his K rate to 12.7%.

 

Dubon has 6yrs cheap control and is ready to take over at SS. Arcia has 3.5yrs left, was sent to AAA twice last year and 2.5 months into this season Saladino was called up to take away half his starts thus far. I still think Arcia is a starting MLB SS. I just don't think he should be our starting SS moving forward given Dubon is ready.

 

I just don't see Arcia as being the problem with our offense this year. He's a SS who plays good (not elite this year) defense and has an OPS over .700. Though possible, I doubt that a rookie middle IF not named Hiura is going to outproduce that in their first big league stint.

If Arcia was playing good defense then Saladino would still be in AAA. People need to start dealing with the reality that Arcia is an average defender at SS at this point. And a 700 OPS is a very low bar, especially considering he's very inconsistent. It wasn't long ago that Perez was exceeding 700.

[pacopete4]

Arcia will probably flourish elsewhere. Might as well play Dubon and move Arcia as Arcia is the new player Counsell loves to put in the doghouse.

[Wahoo Maniac]

Arcia will probably flourish elsewhere. Might as well play Dubon and move Arcia as Arcia is the new player Counsell loves to put in the doghouse.

I see Arcia as someone who's not going to figure it out and be consistent until the final year of his rookie contract or shortly after it similar to Andrus.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Arcia isn't the problem with our offense this year, that trophy is more of a Stanley Cup passed around among Cain, Aguilar and Shaw. But that doesn't mean Arcia is good.

 

I think the initial honeymoon over his defense is ending and we are left with what appears to be a mediocre player. That doesn't mean it'll be what he is forever, but that is what he's been, and what he is right now. Kinda feel the same about Arcia as I do about Braun right now. I'm not under any delusion that either is more than what they are. They're not very good, but if the guys above weren't absolutely dreadful and we had a pitching staff we'd probably have 55 wins and nobody would really care.

[Wahoo Maniac]

Arcia isn't the problem with our offense this year, that trophy is more of a Stanley Cup passed around among Cain, Aguilar and Shaw. But that doesn't mean Arcia is good.

 

I think the initial honeymoon over his defense is ending and we are left with what appears to be a mediocre player. That doesn't mean it'll be what he is forever, but that is what he's been, and what he is right now. Kinda feel the same about Arcia as I do about Braun right now. I'm not under any delusion that either is more than what they are. They're not very good, but if the guys above weren't absolutely dreadful and we had a pitching staff we'd probably have 55 wins and nobody would really care.

Disagree as I'd still care. The number of wins a team has is irrelevant to me. If a change needs to be made you make it. If Arcia was playing plus defense his inconsistent bat can be overlooked but this isn't the case. You upgrade where you can, when you can.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Well yeah, but they haven't exactly had a replacement for Arcia. Dubon is probably gonna be about the same guy. I don't mind him getting some time, but I don't think he's a long term solution to the Arcia problem.

 

And I'm sorry, but "the number of wins is irrelevant" is a silly statement. If you are a 96-win team there is much less urgency to replace a developing player if you think he's going to be really good. When your offense is struggling and you're a supposed title contender mulling around .500 there is not a lot of time to wait it out with poor performers. If we're being honest this season is probably already over if they play in any other division. Just replacing guys for the sake of replacing them isn't really productive if there's nobody better.

[Wahoo Maniac]

Well yeah, but they haven't exactly had a replacement for Arcia. Dubon is probably gonna be about the same guy. I don't mind him getting some time, but I don't think he's a long term solution to the Arcia problem.

 

And I'm sorry, but "the number of wins is irrelevant" is a silly statement. If you are a 96-win team there is much less urgency to replace a developing player if you think he's going to be really good. When your offense is struggling and you're a supposed title contender mulling around .500 there is not a lot of time to wait it out with poor performers. If we're being honest this season is probably already over if they play in any other division. Just replacing guys for the sake of replacing them isn't really productive if there's nobody better.

But do the Brewers currently think Arcia is going to be “really good”? Brewers don’t have a replacement? Dubon was literally replacing Arcia last May before he had a significant knee injury. The Brewers won 96 games last year and Arcia was demoted twice. Talk about silly statements. He’s essentially splitting time with Saladino at the moment.

 

What exactly is it about Dubon that people see the next Perez and only that???