Dubon being called up

[IntentionalHBP]

Looks like he won’t play tonight and Arica will be back after the break. It would be a shame for Dubon to be called up just to be sent down before his first game.

[sveumrules]

Slugging is up across AAA since they are using the MLB ball this year.

 

Dubon's 307/343/491 line is good for a dead even 100 wRC+.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Well, Tyler Saladino slugged .568 in San Antonio.

 

Dubon hit 14 of his career 40 minor league homers in the first half of this year in a hitters park in a hitters league. I think it's fair to be skeptical that he's suddenly an offensive force. If he has found a new swing that adds some launch angle,. great! I just think it's fair to be skeptical.

 

If Dubon can hit .260-.270 and hit a few doubles and homers and play decent defense I think most everyone will be happy with that.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Maybe Arcia is the trade chip, not doubon? Arcia is only going to get more expensive and has been less than stellar after the hype of being a top prospect. Doubon has a 15% k rate compared to 22% for Arcia. Should be interesting.

[Brew crew 92]

Well, Tyler Saladino slugged .568 in San Antonio.

 

Dubon hit 14 of his career 40 minor league homers in the first half of this year in a hitters park in a hitters league. I think it's fair to be skeptical that he's suddenly an offensive force. If he has found a new swing that adds some launch angle,. great! I just think it's fair to be skeptical.

 

If Dubon can hit .260-.270 and hit a few doubles and homers and play decent defense I think most everyone will be happy with that.

 

Don’t forget the juiced ball in AAA, power numbers skewed.

 

But he should make good contact(only 50 Ks in AAA) or enough contact to be able to hit a little better than Arcia. This offense needs a couple of contact hitters, here’s to hoping he can be one of them.

[trwi7]

Dubon is going to be an all glove no bat player in the major leagues. Not exactly what the team needs at this moment

 

He's hit pretty well at every level. What makes you think the bat will go into hibernation in the majors? Not trying to argue, just trying to understand your reasoning.

 

Arcia hit .284/.342/.407 in the minors. Dubon has hit .301/.348/.424. Arcia was also younger at every level than Dubon. They're both basically the same age yet Arcia was in Low-A in 2013 while Dubon didn't make it until 2015, when Arcia was in AA.

 

So basically the same stats as Arcia while being older than Arcia at every level and we see Arcia isn't exactly an offensive dynamo. Could Dubon be a good hitter? I guess. Is it likely he's even an average hitter? I'd probably bet the under.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I guess we should just dfa Dubon...we already have proven he sucks without him even getting off the AAA plane

[Pugger]

I don't think Arcia's been the real problem on offense this year. After all he's got the same amount of HR and almost as many RBI as Braun batting either 8th or 9th while striking out less. But this organization seems to have an offensive depth issue and it would be great to see Dubon be able to hold his own against major league pitching. This exposure to major league pitching comes at a time when it should help his development.

 

Yes, Arcia has been one of the few players who is actually hitting right now. I hope we hear more about he is later today.

[trwi7]

I guess we should just dfa Dubon...we already have proven he sucks without him even getting off the AAA plane

 

Nobody has said that.

[Eye Black]

I guess we should just dfa Dubon...we already have proven he sucks without him even getting off the AAA plane

 

Nobody has said that.

I don’t think most people are saying he can’t be a valuable major league player as much as just trying to be realistic about what to reasonably expect from him. In my opinion, it is easy to see his 14 home runs this year and get carried away with what type of hitter he is likely to be.

 

As someone who nearly bought a Taylor Green jersey when he initially debuted I can appreciate a bit of tempered expectations.

[And That]

Dubon is going to be an all glove no bat player in the major leagues.

Besides being incorrect as a declarative statement, his bat is quite a ways ahead of his glove.

 

So getting past the stat line scouting, Dubon is more athletic and has a much cleaner swing than Arcia; he's more likely to hit and reach his ceiling than Arcia. Not saying he will, just that I think he has a decent chance to be a better hitter. Dubon's not a defensive specialist, though. He's maybe average at shortstop.

[Eye Black]

Maybe Arcia is the trade chip, not doubon? Arcia is only going to get more expensive and has been less than stellar after the hype of being a top prospect. Doubon has a 15% k rate compared to 22% for Arcia. Should be interesting.

If the Brewers plan is to trade Orlando Arcia than Counsell would have been better off not ragging on Arcia’s defense (completely unsolicited) when they called up Saladino. I’m sure it wouldn’t have much of an impact on another team’s front office evaluation of Arcia, but nevertheless you typically don’t want to a lot of unnecessary negativity surrounding a player you want to extract maximum trade value for.

[Wahoo Maniac]

.284 .342 .407 .749 - Orlando Arcia's career MILB numbers while being 2 years younger than Dubon at every level.

 

.301 .348 .424 .772 - Mauricio Dubon's career MILB numbers.

 

Not much difference. It'll be fun to see if Mauricio can translate his MILB numbers to some success at this level. We could use his versatility. He's not an all world defender but Arcia hasn't been very good either this year so defense is probably a wash.

This is false. Arcia was not 2yrs younger per level than Dubon. Dubon's first exposure to A+ he played half a season at 2.7yrs young while Arcia was 3.7yrs young. His first exposure to AA he played half a season and was 3.4yrs young while Arcia was 4.1yrs young. His first exposure to AAA he played half a season and was 4.4yrs young while Arcia was 5.5yrs young.

 

Also, Dubon's bat profile is much better than Arcia's. Arcia was, and still is, a glove first player. Dubon is the opposite. He's a high contact, low K, high BA hitter with a great understanding of the zone while offering much better base stealing/running. He'll hit more doubles/triples just not HR. Dubon will most likely be a solid SS while having a solid arm (plenty good to play SS but not great). The way Arcia is playing defense this year I'd bank on Dubon not being worse. Dubon has the potential to be a plus bat he just won't have the over the wall power.

[Lathund]

So with Arcia supposedly ready to go right after the break, and Dubon not starting today.. is he going to get sent back down without even making his debut?

[Eye Black]

So with Arcia supposedly ready to go right after the break, and Dubon not starting today.. is he going to get sent back down without even making his debut?

I would be shocked if he doesn’t play at all today. I think he’ll get a pinch hit AB at the very least.

 

It’s tough to blame them for not starting him when he showed up off the plane and to the ballpark just 90 minutes before 1st pitch.

[Wahoo Maniac]

I don't think Arcia's been the real problem on offense this year. After all he's got the same amount of HR and almost as many RBI as Braun batting either 8th or 9th while striking out less. But this organization seems to have an offensive depth issue and it would be great to see Dubon be able to hold his own against major league pitching. This exposure to major league pitching comes at a time when it should help his development.

Arcia's been a problem at the plate for a large portion of his MLB career. His K rate is like 2.5% lower than Braun's too this year and he's 11yrs younger. It sounds like you think Braun and Arcia are comparable hitters, which they most certainly are not.

 

Arcia hasn't matured over his time. He's like Perez; they go about their business and never take that next step. He's a slightly better version of Alcides Escobar but with more power, less speed. He absolutely has been a hole in this lineup most of the time offering no consistency. Low BA, low OBP but his power came back (which was obviously going to happen as well).

 

Dubon is a high BA, high contact/low K bat who brings consistency to any lineup. He's been that way his entire career.

 

Arcia had what used to be called a sophomore slump for most of 2018. Other than the 5 months of 2018, he's been a productive major league hitter. His career K rate is actually below major league average. His BABIP rate would indicate he's hit in bad luck particularly this year. His OPS is 125 points higher with BABIP rate down 40 points? That's not easy to do. His walk rate could be better, but as the 8th hitter, I'd rather he be swinging with 2 outs and runners on. When he bats 9th, he gets better pitches to hit and he's slugging .487 in that spot compared to .410 with the pitcher batting behind him.

 

Let's see what Dubon does against major league pitching. Most guys K rates go up pretty significantly with the jump to the majors. I think he's ready to be a decent major league hitter, but I don't expect much more than something like .270/.320/.400. Useful sure. A future star? Doubtful.

I strongly disagree on Arcia being a productive MLB player outside of 2018. His 2016, 2018, 2019 he hasn't been productive offensively and his defense has been overrated the entire time. No analytics we have access to nor the eye test says he's played at an elite level ever. Every player, MVP or 25th man, has bad and great stretches. And Arcia is no different. He's had months over his career where he's flashed his potential but most of the time he's been unproductive.

 

I don't care if Arcia's K rate is lower than the MLB average. All that means is he puts the ball in play more than the average MLB player. That doesn't mean he's making good contact. I also don't care what Arcia does in the 9 hole when he has 12 games played there. And the eye test says he's not unlucky this year, it says the opposite. He's swung at plenty of garbage this year getting lucky that it resulted in a run scoring hit. It happens often enough where it's definitely noticeable. Since the start of 2018 his BA is 238 and OBP is 284 with a 22% K rate. That's his last 10 months of baseball - Perez has outperformed him over that span. His SLG this year bounced back to his 2017, which is expected, but his BA/OBP still suck.

 

Literally nobody is saying Dubon is a future star. It seems most people here don't think highly of him at all. I personally think Dubon can post somewhere in the ballpark of 275/320/740 as a rookie and improve from there. He might never reach 800 OPS but he doesn't have to if he becomes a 290+ hitter like he's capable of.

[wntrtxn21]

Dubon is going to be an all glove no bat player in the major leagues. Not exactly what the team needs at this moment

 

What makes you believe he will be a "no bat"? He has hit very well in AAA. Last year .343/.348 - 922 OPS before he got hurt. This year .307/.343 - 855 OPS. There is every indication he will do well in the big leagues. In any case, he can't do any worse than Saladino's done since being called up. Saladino is 2 for 28 with 13 Ks. Dubon doesn't play the corner OF spots, but can play 3 Inf. positions well.

[adambr2]

Just to brighten things up even more, Counsell said in no uncertain terms that Dubon will be heading back down. So there will be plenty more Tyler Saladino coming up in the 2nd half.

[clancyphile]

Just to brighten things up even more, Counsell said in no uncertain terms that Dubon will be heading back down. So there will be plenty more Tyler Saladino coming up in the 2nd half.

 

I can live with that... as long as Dubon gets some outfield work in.

[PeaveyFury]

 

I strongly disagree on Arcia being a productive MLB player outside of 2018. His 2016, 2018, 2019 he hasn't been productive offensively and his defense has been overrated the entire time. No analytics we have access to nor the eye test says he's played at an elite level ever. Every player, MVP or 25th man, has bad and great stretches. And Arcia is no different. He's had months over his career where he's flashed his potential but most of the time he's been unproductive.

 

I guess it may be semantics to decide on the definition of 'productive MLB player,' but he's been above replacement level every year (yes, including 2018) other than his partial first-year of 2016. When you perform better throughout almost your entire career than the guys you can plug in at the position each offseason, I DO think that's a productive MLB player....

[adambr2]

 

I strongly disagree on Arcia being a productive MLB player outside of 2018. His 2016, 2018, 2019 he hasn't been productive offensively and his defense has been overrated the entire time. No analytics we have access to nor the eye test says he's played at an elite level ever. Every player, MVP or 25th man, has bad and great stretches. And Arcia is no different. He's had months over his career where he's flashed his potential but most of the time he's been unproductive.

 

I guess it may be semantics to decide on the definition of 'productive MLB player,' but he's been above replacement level every year (yes, including 2018) other than his partial first-year of 2016. When you perform better throughout almost your entire career than the guys you can plug in at the position each offseason, I DO think that's a productive MLB player....

 

As you say, "productive" is a subjective term in the eye of the beholder, but if your definition is to be above replacement level, I would argue that that team of "productive" players will be a really bad team. I think the average MLB starter is somewhere in the ballpark of a 2.0 WAR.

[trwi7]

 

I strongly disagree on Arcia being a productive MLB player outside of 2018. His 2016, 2018, 2019 he hasn't been productive offensively and his defense has been overrated the entire time. No analytics we have access to nor the eye test says he's played at an elite level ever. Every player, MVP or 25th man, has bad and great stretches. And Arcia is no different. He's had months over his career where he's flashed his potential but most of the time he's been unproductive.

 

I guess it may be semantics to decide on the definition of 'productive MLB player,' but he's been above replacement level every year (yes, including 2018) other than his partial first-year of 2016. When you perform better throughout almost your entire career than the guys you can plug in at the position each offseason, I DO think that's a productive MLB player....

 

Above replacement level is a pretty low bar to set and he was -0.4 last year so he wasn't above replacement level either. He's at 0.9 WAR in 1,450 plate appearances in his career which isn't that much better than replacement level.

[Wahoo Maniac]

 

I strongly disagree on Arcia being a productive MLB player outside of 2018. His 2016, 2018, 2019 he hasn't been productive offensively and his defense has been overrated the entire time. No analytics we have access to nor the eye test says he's played at an elite level ever. Every player, MVP or 25th man, has bad and great stretches. And Arcia is no different. He's had months over his career where he's flashed his potential but most of the time he's been unproductive.

 

I guess it may be semantics to decide on the definition of 'productive MLB player,' but he's been above replacement level every year (yes, including 2018) other than his partial first-year of 2016. When you perform better throughout almost your entire career than the guys you can plug in at the position each offseason, I DO think that's a productive MLB player....

 

As you say, "productive" is a subjective term in the eye of the beholder, but if your definition is to be above replacement level, I would argue that that team of "productive" players will be a really bad team. I think the average MLB starter is somewhere in the ballpark of a 2.0 WAR.

Perez has outperformed Arcia in 2016 and overall from the start of 2018-present. That’s not being productive when you’re a starter. He’s had one productive season but not a productive career.

 

If people want to use WAR then according to BR he’s .3 overall between 2016/2018/2019. Fangraphs has him at -.4 over that span. I think WAR is flawed to a certain extent but this is what it says. I don’t want to use the 2 WAR line in the sand for every player because I think a productive player is someone who’s average or better in their given role (ie starter, utility, traditional backup, pinch hitter) as it’s more difficult to accumulate a 2+ WAR season if not starting.

 

Just curious, are below-average performers considered productive in anyone’s place of work?

 

Back to Dubon. Excellent AB today. Looked like a vet. Balanced, poised, controlled, went with the pitch on every foul ball and the ground out. That was a professional AB. With Arcia being back after the break they’ll obviously send Dubon back down but if Saladino struggles or there’s an injury then a Dubon will be back up.

[PeaveyFury]

Above replacement level is a pretty low bar to set and he was -0.4 last year so he wasn't above replacement level either. He's at 0.9 WAR in 1,450 plate appearances in his career which isn't that much better than replacement level.

 

Baseball Reference has him at 0.1 WAR for 2018, FWIW.

 

And again, it goes back to how you define productive. He’s 24 and hasn’t been below replacement level in his full seasons in MLB. I think expecting Dubon to be more “productive” than that should be viewed with some skepticism.

[OnTheBlack]

.284 .342 .407 .749 - Orlando Arcia's career MILB numbers while being 2 years younger than Dubon at every level.

 

.301 .348 .424 .772 - Mauricio Dubon's career MILB numbers.

 

Not much difference. It'll be fun to see if Mauricio can translate his MILB numbers to some success at this level. We could use his versatility. He's not an all world defender but Arcia hasn't been very good either this year so defense is probably a wash.

This is false. Arcia was not 2yrs younger per level than Dubon. Dubon's first exposure to A+ he played half a season at 2.7yrs young while Arcia was 3.7yrs young. His first exposure to AA he played half a season and was 3.4yrs young while Arcia was 4.1yrs young. His first exposure to AAA he played half a season and was 4.4yrs young while Arcia was 5.5yrs young.

 

Also, Dubon's bat profile is much better than Arcia's. Arcia was, and still is, a glove first player. Dubon is the opposite. He's a high contact, low K, high BA hitter with a great understanding of the zone while offering much better base stealing/running. He'll hit more doubles/triples just not HR. Dubon will most likely be a solid SS while having a solid arm (plenty good to play SS but not great). The way Arcia is playing defense this year I'd bank on Dubon not being worse. Dubon has the potential to be a plus bat he just won't have the over the wall power.

 

 

 

You realize that Arcia was born in August of '94 while Dubon was born in July of '94. So Dubon is older.

 

You also realize that the -3.7 or whatever is just relative to the other players at a given level? So you have to actually look at the players age HE was at each level, not just the average ages of the other players during the time he spent at that level.

 

Arcia at 18 played in low A. Spent the whole year there.

19 he moved up to HiA.

20 AA

21 AAA/55 games at the big league level.

 

Dubon-18 he played at Rookie level.

19-1/3rd of a year at low A.

20-spent half the year in LowA and HiA.

21-Again, half the year at HiA and AA.

22-Half the year in AA then moved up to AAA.

23-AAA

24-AAA-Now called up due to injury.

 

Arcia minor league line-.284/.342/.407 OPS of .749

Dubon-301/.348/.424 OPS of .772

 

 

So it's not really false, Arcia is 4 years futher along than the OLDER Dubon and their lines in the minors are similar. Plus, Arcia's a superior defensive player. Probably by a wide margin, but we'll have to see as it's pretty tough to accurately compare minor league defensive stats to big league defensive stats,

 

But I'm just curious, what do you think Arcia would have done if he'd have been able to spend an additional 4 years in the minor leagues? You think just maybe his offensive production would be better if he was facing minor league pitching instead of big league pitching?

 

Just something to keep in mind before we write off a 24 year old SS who's already proven he's a very-very good defensive shortstop despite being an up and down offensive player.

 

So, one player has spent the last 4 seasons playing in the big leagues and the other has spent the last 4 years playing in the minor leagues. And you think it's equal to compare those players based on their minor league stats?

 

Also, Dubon's bat profile is much better than Arcia's. Arcia was, and still is, a glove first player. Dubon is the opposite. He's a high contact, low K, high BA hitter with a great understanding of the zone while offering much better base stealing/running.

 

Isn't "high contact," and "low K," redundant? And again, given that Arcia was playing in the majors for the last 4 years while Dubon was improving his offensive line in the minors, I think it's pretty fair we throw this out.