Is it time to consider moving Hader

[bill hAll Star]

Granted, if the Brewers are competitive at the deadline, maybe it ends up being an opportunity lost instead of an offseason "help both sides" trade, but if I'm the Dodgers, I'm waiting until the trade deadline if I have a directive to go out and overpay for relief help. The Padres are improving but they should be up by 10 games at the deadline. Make your move then.

 

Also, I know that Kershaw is "playoff Kershaw" and all, but you still got to run Clayton Kershaw out there, Maeda who was dominant, and then Joe Kelly...and that might be the punchline to a joke to some, but Kelly was very, very good after May this year. Better than Hader.

 

Just as most logical Brewers fans will say, "well, Hader has his warts but we were missing Knebel (and others) putting him on an island and in that game there was a broken bat hit, a weird HBP call, and an error...I'm not THAT worried about Hader" you can justify the same for Kershaw and Kelly. One of the homers off of Kershaw was dug out of the ground. I don't have much of an excuse for Kelly but he was filthy over the past 5 months of the season and hadn't had many issues other than that one inning in the playoffs.

 

The problem is Joe Kelly has been a 1-inning guy. He should have never been brought out for that second inning of work, regardless of where his pitch count stood.

 

 

Kelly worked more than an inning 7 times this year by my count and was not bad in doing it.

 

He also breezed through his first inning of work so pitch count wasn't an issue, which I know you acknowledged, but maybe Roberts thought that Kelly was his best guy left and wanted him to pitch to Rendon/Kendrick (he got to walk Soto).

 

I am not totally against your idea, though...I especially might've taken him out of there once he got into trouble

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Granted, if the Brewers are competitive at the deadline, maybe it ends up being an opportunity lost instead of an offseason "help both sides" trade, but if I'm the Dodgers, I'm waiting until the trade deadline if I have a directive to go out and overpay for relief help. The Padres are improving but they should be up by 10 games at the deadline. Make your move then.

 

Also, I know that Kershaw is "playoff Kershaw" and all, but you still got to run Clayton Kershaw out there, Maeda who was dominant, and then Joe Kelly...and that might be the punchline to a joke to some, but Kelly was very, very good after May this year. Better than Hader.

 

Just as most logical Brewers fans will say, "well, Hader has his warts but we were missing Knebel (and others) putting him on an island and in that game there was a broken bat hit, a weird HBP call, and an error...I'm not THAT worried about Hader" you can justify the same for Kershaw and Kelly. One of the homers off of Kershaw was dug out of the ground. I don't have much of an excuse for Kelly but he was filthy over the past 5 months of the season and hadn't had many issues other than that one inning in the playoffs.

 

The problem is Joe Kelly has been a 1-inning guy. He should have never been brought out for that second inning of work, regardless of where his pitch count stood.

 

 

Kelly worked more than an inning 7 times this year by my count and was not bad in doing it.

 

He also breezed through his first inning of work so pitch count wasn't an issue, which I know you acknowledged, but maybe Roberts thought that Kelly was his best guy left and wanted him to pitch to Rendon/Kendrick (he got to walk Soto).

 

I am not totally against your idea, though...I especially might've taken him out of there once he got into trouble

 

Only three appearances of more than an inning since the end of June. It had been since Aug. 24, so a month and a half, since he pitched more than an inning in an outing. I mean, I get that he was throwing well, but that was a chance that didn't need to happen. The fact that Roberts didn't go to Jansen to start that inning is really telling.

[TURBO]

Bellinger would probably cost us Supak and Suter

 

I'd make that trade right freaking now!

[clancyphile]

 

L.A. can have him, but they not only hand over Bellinger and Lux, they can give us their first-round picks for the next three years, and about a half-dozen others. Kinda make that deal work for the Crew the way the Herschel Walker deal worked for the Cowboys.

 

Is this trolling?

 

No...

 

Hader has, if I read B-R correctly, five years of control left, and is not arby-eligible until after the 2021 season, so the first two years are likely to be very cheap for the results. He is arguably the best reliever in the game - certainly one of the top relievers, and in terms of cost over the next five years, probably the best value at relief pitcher in the majors.

 

Chapman as a free agent (IF he opts out) could get $20 million a season. Andrew Miller is fading somewhat, but still gets a lot more than Hader. Those are the two closest comparisons to Hader I can think of, and Hader beats both in price, and arguably in terms of performance.

 

Hader is to relief pitchers what Khalil Mack is to pass rushers.

 

Any trade return ought to reflect that.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

L.A. can have him, but they not only hand over Bellinger and Lux, they can give us their first-round picks for the next three years, and about a half-dozen others. Kinda make that deal work for the Crew the way the Herschel Walker deal worked for the Cowboys.

 

Is this trolling?

 

No...

 

Hader has, if I read B-R correctly, five years of control left, and is not arby-eligible until after the 2021 season, so the first two years are likely to be very cheap for the results. He is arguably the best reliever in the game - certainly one of the top relievers, and in terms of cost over the next five years, probably the best value at relief pitcher in the majors.

 

Chapman as a free agent (IF he opts out) could get $20 million a season. Andrew Miller is fading somewhat, but still gets a lot more than Hader. Those are the two closest comparisons to Hader I can think of, and Hader beats both in price, and arguably in terms of performance.

 

Hader is to relief pitchers what Khalil Mack is to pass rushers.

 

Any trade return ought to reflect that.

 

I totally get that Hader has a lot of value. But to use your football analogy, asking for Bellinger and Lux for Hader would be like the Raiders trading Mack to the Chiefs for Pat Mahomes and Tyreek Hill. That is an absolute crazy, never-gonna-happen ask. Hence the trolling comment. Come up with a realistic trade scenario, because asking for Bellinger, who is the likely MVP and one of the brightest young stars in the game, is 100% not realistic.

 

Also, as a Super 2 guy, Hader is arby eligible this offseason.

[clancyphile]

No...

 

Hader has, if I read B-R correctly, five years of control left, and is not arby-eligible until after the 2021 season, so the first two years are likely to be very cheap for the results. He is arguably the best reliever in the game - certainly one of the top relievers, and in terms of cost over the next five years, probably the best value at relief pitcher in the majors.

 

Chapman as a free agent (IF he opts out) could get $20 million a season. Andrew Miller is fading somewhat, but still gets a lot more than Hader. Those are the two closest comparisons to Hader I can think of, and Hader beats both in price, and arguably in terms of performance.

 

Hader is to relief pitchers what Khalil Mack is to pass rushers.

 

Any trade return ought to reflect that.

 

I totally get that Hader has a lot of value. But to use your football analogy, asking for Bellinger and Lux for Hader would be like the Raiders trading Mack to the Chiefs for Pat Mahomes and Tyreek Hill. That is an absolute crazy, never-gonna-happen ask. Hence the trolling comment. Come up with a realistic trade scenario, because asking for Bellinger, who is the likely MVP and one of the brightest young stars in the game, is 100% not realistic.

 

Ferengi Rule of Acquisition #98: Every man has his price.

 

In theory, every player signed by the Milwaukee Brewers - whether on the major-league roster, the 40-man roster, or signed to the minors (down to the co-op team shared with the Indians in the DSL) has a price at which they would be traded. This is true for every team in major-league baseball.

 

For instance, the Pirates were willing to give us Jordan Lyles for Cody Ponce, a minor-league pitcher the Crew might or might not have put on the 40-man roster this offseason. Stearns, rightly, took the chance for an upgrade for a pitcher who might only see a cup of coffee in the majors. Ponce, when you think of it, was a bargain price for Lyles, who may have put things together as a solid #3 (12-8, 4.15 ERA in 2019) with the potential to at least have an ace-like run (7-1, 2.45 ERA with the Crew in 2019).

 

Now, different people may value players differently. I, for instance, would not have designated Troy Stokes for assignment, and probably would have dropped Tyler Saladino instead. Stearns thought differently, and Stokes is now a Tiger. I think Perez is worth a multi-year deal at about $3 million a year because of his versatility - he not only made 13 pitchers on a 25-man roster work, he was the 14th pitcher. If I'm Stearns, I see if I can't get Perez to the pitching mechanics complex in Arizona just to see if they can't push him up to the equivalent of a viable middle-reliever as opposed to mop-up.

 

For me, the price for Hader is extremely high. The price tag is Bellinger-Lux (plus minor-league players) if the Dodgers were the trade partner. If it's the Padres, it's Mejia, Tatis, and Paddack, although in that case I might toss in Arcia and Burnes.

 

Why? Because there's the five years of control, two of which are dirt-cheap when his performance is considered. Honestly, dealing Hader before he is arby-eligible does not make sense at this time unless the other team is willing to give me major help in several areas.

 

Honestly, I think the time to consider dealing Hader is after 2021, not after this year. Two more years like 2018-2019, and Hader will still bring an outstanding return, and three years of control is still a lot. But for the next two years, I see Hader as virtually untouchable, barring someone like A.J. Preller or Andrew Friedman offering what would amount to a massive overpay.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

No...

 

Hader has, if I read B-R correctly, five years of control left, and is not arby-eligible until after the 2021 season, so the first two years are likely to be very cheap for the results. He is arguably the best reliever in the game - certainly one of the top relievers, and in terms of cost over the next five years, probably the best value at relief pitcher in the majors.

 

Chapman as a free agent (IF he opts out) could get $20 million a season. Andrew Miller is fading somewhat, but still gets a lot more than Hader. Those are the two closest comparisons to Hader I can think of, and Hader beats both in price, and arguably in terms of performance.

 

Hader is to relief pitchers what Khalil Mack is to pass rushers.

 

Any trade return ought to reflect that.

 

I totally get that Hader has a lot of value. But to use your football analogy, asking for Bellinger and Lux for Hader would be like the Raiders trading Mack to the Chiefs for Pat Mahomes and Tyreek Hill. That is an absolute crazy, never-gonna-happen ask. Hence the trolling comment. Come up with a realistic trade scenario, because asking for Bellinger, who is the likely MVP and one of the brightest young stars in the game, is 100% not realistic.

 

Ferengi Rule of Acquisition #98: Every man has his price.

 

In theory, every player signed by the Milwaukee Brewers - whether on the major-league roster, the 40-man roster, or signed to the minors (down to the co-op team shared with the Indians in the DSL) has a price at which they would be traded. This is true for every team in major-league baseball.

 

For instance, the Pirates were willing to give us Jordan Lyles for Cody Ponce, a minor-league pitcher the Crew might or might not have put on the 40-man roster this offseason. Stearns, rightly, took the chance for an upgrade for a pitcher who might only see a cup of coffee in the majors. Ponce, when you think of it, was a bargain price for Lyles, who may have put things together as a solid #3 (12-8, 4.15 ERA in 2019) with the potential to at least have an ace-like run (7-1, 2.45 ERA with the Crew in 2019).

 

Now, different people may value players differently. I, for instance, would not have designated Troy Stokes for assignment, and probably would have dropped Tyler Saladino instead. Stearns thought differently, and Stokes is now a Tiger. I think Perez is worth a multi-year deal at about $3 million a year because of his versatility - he not only made 13 pitchers on a 25-man roster work, he was the 14th pitcher. If I'm Stearns, I see if I can't get Perez to the pitching mechanics complex in Arizona just to see if they can't push him up to the equivalent of a viable middle-reliever as opposed to mop-up.

 

For me, the price for Hader is extremely high. The price tag is Bellinger-Lux (plus minor-league players) if the Dodgers were the trade partner. If it's the Padres, it's Mejia, Tatis, and Paddack, although in that case I might toss in Arcia and Burnes.

 

Why? Because there's the five years of control, two of which are dirt-cheap when his performance is considered. Honestly, dealing Hader before he is arby-eligible does not make sense at this time unless the other team is willing to give me major help in several areas.

 

Honestly, I think the time to consider dealing Hader is after 2021, not after this year. Two more years like 2018-2019, and Hader will still bring an outstanding return, and three years of control is still a lot. But for the next two years, I see Hader as virtually untouchable, barring someone like A.J. Preller or Andrew Friedman offering what would amount to a massive overpay.

 

Again, as a Super 2 guy, Hader is looking at a salary of roughly $5 million this year. which will only escalate from here on out. Still cheap for what he provides, but no longer dirt-cheap.

 

If I'm Stearns, I'm not shopping Hader this offseason. But if a team like the Dodgers calls, I'm certainly going to engage. And I'm not going to insult them by asking for their #1 prospect, their Yelich-like superstar player, plus more.

[clancyphile]

Ferengi Rule of Acquisition #98: Every man has his price.

 

In theory, every player signed by the Milwaukee Brewers - whether on the major-league roster, the 40-man roster, or signed to the minors (down to the co-op team shared with the Indians in the DSL) has a price at which they would be traded. This is true for every team in major-league baseball.

 

For instance, the Pirates were willing to give us Jordan Lyles for Cody Ponce, a minor-league pitcher the Crew might or might not have put on the 40-man roster this offseason. Stearns, rightly, took the chance for an upgrade for a pitcher who might only see a cup of coffee in the majors. Ponce, when you think of it, was a bargain price for Lyles, who may have put things together as a solid #3 (12-8, 4.15 ERA in 2019) with the potential to at least have an ace-like run (7-1, 2.45 ERA with the Crew in 2019).

 

Now, different people may value players differently. I, for instance, would not have designated Troy Stokes for assignment, and probably would have dropped Tyler Saladino instead. Stearns thought differently, and Stokes is now a Tiger. I think Perez is worth a multi-year deal at about $3 million a year because of his versatility - he not only made 13 pitchers on a 25-man roster work, he was the 14th pitcher. If I'm Stearns, I see if I can't get Perez to the pitching mechanics complex in Arizona just to see if they can't push him up to the equivalent of a viable middle-reliever as opposed to mop-up.

 

For me, the price for Hader is extremely high. The price tag is Bellinger-Lux (plus minor-league players) if the Dodgers were the trade partner. If it's the Padres, it's Mejia, Tatis, and Paddack, although in that case I might toss in Arcia and Burnes.

 

Why? Because there's the five years of control, two of which are dirt-cheap when his performance is considered. Honestly, dealing Hader before he is arby-eligible does not make sense at this time unless the other team is willing to give me major help in several areas.

 

Honestly, I think the time to consider dealing Hader is after 2021, not after this year. Two more years like 2018-2019, and Hader will still bring an outstanding return, and three years of control is still a lot. But for the next two years, I see Hader as virtually untouchable, barring someone like A.J. Preller or Andrew Friedman offering what would amount to a massive overpay.

 

Again, as a Super 2 guy, Hader is looking at a salary of roughly $5 million this year. which will only escalate from here on out. Still cheap for what he provides, but no longer dirt-cheap.

 

If I'm Stearns, I'm not shopping Hader this offseason. But if a team like the Dodgers calls, I'm certainly going to engage. And I'm not going to insult them by asking for their #1 prospect, their Yelich-like superstar player, plus more.

 

His first game was June 10, 2017... I'm not 100% sure how super 2 works, but I don't think Hader meets that.

 

Unless I read B-R wrong, then arby is not a factor for Hader until after 2021, with free agency after 2024.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/haderjo01.shtml

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

His first game was June 10, 2017... I'm not 100% sure how super 2 works, but I don't think Hader meets that.

 

Unless I read B-R wrong, then arby is not a factor for Hader until after 2021, with free agency after 2024.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/haderjo01.shtml

 

He does:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/brewers-josh-hader-super-two-cutoff-arbitration.html

 

B-R states that he'd be arb-eligible in 2021, which means the 2020-21 offseason (or after next season). Super 2 doesn't mean that the Brewers lose a year of control, but it does mean that Hader gets an extra year of arb salary. B-R obviously didn't foresee the Super 2 number coming in as low as it did.

[clancyphile]

His first game was June 10, 2017... I'm not 100% sure how super 2 works, but I don't think Hader meets that.

 

Unless I read B-R wrong, then arby is not a factor for Hader until after 2021, with free agency after 2024.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/haderjo01.shtml

 

He does:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/brewers-josh-hader-super-two-cutoff-arbitration.html

 

B-R states that he'd be arb-eligible in 2021, which means the 2020-21 offseason (or after next season). They obviously didn't foresee the Super 2 number coming in as low as it did.

 

Yikes.

 

Four years of control, then, and more expensive control at that.

 

That does alter the calculations, then. I'd been reading their arby thing wrong, and the Super 2 is an unpleasant surprise.

[DuWayne Steurer]

The Dodgers bullpen wasn't lights-out this year. It wasn't awful, but it wasn't shut-down-good. They might be willing to spend a bit of capital to upgrade that pen. I think obviously the Dodgers would rather be using a shutdown reliever in late innings than Kershaw, and the Dodgers will 1000% still be in "Go For It" mode in 2020.

 

I'm not for trading Hader, but if the Brewers can get an MLB ready shortstop and a couple of top flight prospects back, I'd consider it.

 

As an aside, they aren't getting Bellinger for Hader. They just aren't. Any GM who would ask for an 8-9 WAR player who hasn't hit arby yet (will next year) for ANY reliever is nuts. Plain nuts. Bellinger is a top 5 player in the game. He's that good, and no matter how good a reliever is, they don't have nearly the kind of impact an 8+ WAR player like Bellinger can have.

[BrewForLife]

I would do Hader for SMurphy, Neuse, and Mateo...

 

Yes, it is lopsided for OAK if you are a MKE fan; for the Brewers if you like OAK so add players to fill in on either side to even it up but this would be the acceptable base for me. Yes, the dream of re-signing Yaz and Moose ends here so ppl will hate it.

 

You can get guys that throw hard to fill the pen A LOT easier than you can find controllable players to compliment the vets and Hiura and Trent for the next 5-6 years...and you save 33mil-38mil by going young at C, 3B, and SS.

[wntrtxn21]

I would do Hader for SMurphy, Neuse, and Mateo...

 

Yes, it is lopsided for OAK if you are a MKE fan; for the Brewers if you like OAK so add players to fill in on either side to even it up but this would be the acceptable base for me. Yes, the dream of re-signing Yaz and Moose ends here so ppl will hate it.

 

You can get guys that throw hard to fill the pen A LOT easier than you can find controllable players to compliment the vets and Hiura and Trent for the next 5-6 years...and you save 33mil-38mil by going young at C, 3B, and SS.

 

The problem with your scenario is that you've given up on the next 2-3 years and don't know if any of the 3 will turn out to be MLB caliber players. IF Stearns isn't going to re-sign Moose or Grandal, then I might be in favor of your trade.

[BrewForLife]

The problem with your scenario is that you've given up on the next 2-3 years and don't know if any of the 3 will turn out to be MLB caliber players. IF Stearns isn't going to re-sign Moose or Grandal, then I might be in favor of your trade.

 

Maybe, maybe not.

If you add up the WAR for Hader, Moose, Yaz, TShaw, and Arcia you would be at about 7.5 for 2019. These three guys could make that up in 2020 and the added payroll flexibility would allow for Lyles, Pomeranz, and much more (also adding to the WAR equation).

 

But thanks for being in favor this if the re-signing is not taking place.

[brewers888]

The only way I am moving Hader is if we get an elite prospect like Lux as part of the deal. Hader should have more value than any reliever that has ever been traded when you factor in the years of control and how much relievers are valued in today’s game.

 

The Dodgers have to be feeling a real sense of urgency to win it all and they desperately need Hader in that pursuit. They have Seager so they can move Lux and not really feel it. Clearly they don’t trust Jansen and Hader just fits what they need. They tried trading for Vazquez so they clearly know that a big time bullpen arm is needed.

 

The way I look at it is we are in a no lose situation. If we are offered a great package led by Lux we make the deal. If the offers are quantity over quality we keep Hader who is the best reliever in baseball.

[DHonks]

We should think of everyone as tradeable. I’d really like Hader to spend some time in the pitching lab to figure out a better way of throwing his slider. Seeing Pomeranz’s awesome Fastball-curve combo, is like to see Josh throw his slider a little softer.

[sveumrules]

Hader for Lux and Josiah Gray. Who says no?

 

That's pretty much the exact type of package I think it's going to take to pry Hader away from Milwaukee. That's a couple surefire blue chip prospects. Lux is MLB ready and there's a strong chance that Gray will be sometime in 2020.

 

It would be interesting to find out if the Dodgers value Lux and Seager the same way. I'd be stoked to have either one of those guys.

 

Seager has less team control, costs more & has a pretty long injury history for a 25 year old. Lux is one of the top prospects in all of baseball, I don't believe the Dodgers value them similarly at all.

 

I think six seasons (three at league minimum salaries) of an elite up the middle position prospect carries more value than four Arby seasons of an elite one pitch reliever, so Lux is probably off the table completely.

 

Seager/Gray (or other comparable prospect) is much more realistic than Lux/Gray, in my estimation.

[TURBO]

What about Lux for Hader straight up? I'd think that LA would have to throw in a couple lower level lottery tickets, but this would intrigue me.

 

I think we could get more though, but the thought of having Lux is exciting.

[nate82]

What about Lux for Hader straight up? I'd think that LA would have to throw in a couple lower level lottery tickets, but this would intrigue me.

 

I think we could get more though, but the thought of having Lux is exciting.

 

Lux has more value than Hader. Woodruff for Lux is closer but I think Lux has a little bit more value than Woodruff.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

What about Lux for Hader straight up? I'd think that LA would have to throw in a couple lower level lottery tickets, but this would intrigue me.

 

I think we could get more though, but the thought of having Lux is exciting.

 

Lux has more value than Hader. Woodruff for Lux is closer but I think Lux has a little bit more value than Woodruff.

 

Geez. Lux is a prospect. A good one no doubt, but still a prospect. I disagree wholeheartedly that a player that has proven next to nothing in MLB is worth substantially more than a super young top 3 MLB reliever with multiple years of control, much less a young ace-caliber pitcher with multiple years of control. Lets get real here.

[Bulldogboy]

If you can get Lux for Hader straight up you do it. If he can play short that would be fantastic.

[pacopete4]

Lux is probably more valuable when considering cost and years.

[nate82]

What about Lux for Hader straight up? I'd think that LA would have to throw in a couple lower level lottery tickets, but this would intrigue me.

 

I think we could get more though, but the thought of having Lux is exciting.

 

Lux has more value than Hader. Woodruff for Lux is closer but I think Lux has a little bit more value than Woodruff.

 

Geez. Lux is a prospect. A good one no doubt, but still a prospect. I disagree wholeheartedly that a player that has proven next to nothing in MLB is worth substantially more than a super young top 3 MLB reliever with multiple years of control, much less a young ace-caliber pitcher with multiple years of control. Lets get real here.

 

Yes lets get real here. Cost + years of control makes Lux more valuable.

[sveumrules]

Three years of Gavin Lux at league minimum pre-Arby salaries is even more valuable to the Dodgers than it is to other teams given their Luxury Tax situation.

 

I don't think the Dodgers would entertain dealing Dustin May, Will Smith or Kelbert Ruiz for Hader for the same reason, even if they are just prospects or recently graduated.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Top prospects are traded for veterans every year. I realize that Lux has a lot of value, but Hader more than likely has more value than any reliever in the majors. I'm sorry, but saying I'm just not going to believe that Lux, an unproven prospect, has significantly more value than Hader, a known high end All Star commodity.