Is it time to consider moving Hader

[sveumrules]

Lux is a consensus top 10 prospect, FanGraphs has him at a 60 FV. That puts his surplus value somewhere in the neighborhood of 55-80 million dollars depending on your preferred methodology.

 

Hader has averaged around 2.5 WAR per full season, even if you assume no attrition/injury risk & put him down for 10 WAR over his remaining four years, that is about 80 million in on field value.

 

Once you subtract four seasons of escalating Arby salaries from Josh's already optimistic 10 WAR projection it's pretty easy to get to the point where Lux has more surplus value.

 

The other thing to consider, besides nebulous prospect rankings & dollar to WAR calculations, is that the current Dodgers regime has never traded a prospect the caliber of Lux. Buehler, Urias, Bellinger, Seager, Pederson & Will Smith were also all just (really highly ranked) prospects at one point too & they are all still Dodgers.

 

Maybe top prospects are traded for veterans every year, but not by the Dodgers.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Lux is a consensus top 10 prospect, FanGraphs has him at a 60 FV. That puts his surplus value somewhere in the neighborhood of 55-80 million dollars depending on your preferred methodology.

 

Hader has averaged around 2.5 WAR per full season, even if you assume no attrition/injury risk & put him down for 10 WAR over his remaining four years, that is about 80 million in on field value.

 

Once you subtract four seasons of escalating Arby salaries from Josh's already optimistic 10 WAR projection it's pretty easy to get to the point where Lux has more surplus value.

 

The other thing to consider, besides nebulous prospect rankings & dollar to WAR calculations, is that the current Dodgers regime has never traded a prospect the caliber of Lux. Buehler, Urias, Bellinger, Seager, Pederson & Will Smith were also all just (really highly ranked) prospects at one point too & they are all still Dodgers.

 

Maybe top prospects are traded for veterans every year, but not by the Dodgers.

 

I always figured it was safely assumed that WAR is not a very viable stat when comparing a pitcher (especially a reliever) to a position player. You are right, the Dodgers have managed to hang on to pretty much all of their high-end prospects ... but at the same time, they haven't ever really had the need they do now in the pen either.

 

I guess this is just something we'll have to agree to disagree on. I personally think Lux's value is getting to a unicorn level of inflation here ... almost to the point where if he were to become a Brewer, and he didn't immediately bring Hiura's bat along with Gold Glove-level defense to the SS position, people would be disappointed. For me, not every top prospect turns into a star player, while Hader is a star already. It's as simple as that. I totally get the other side of the argument. I just think this is a case of prospect envy where we prop up the opposing team's property, while perhaps discounting ours. The Brewers are taking on more risk in a deal like this.

[JohnBriggs12]

Lux is a consensus top 10 prospect, FanGraphs has him at a 60 FV. That puts his surplus value somewhere in the neighborhood of 55-80 million dollars depending on your preferred methodology.

 

Hader has averaged around 2.5 WAR per full season, even if you assume no attrition/injury risk & put him down for 10 WAR over his remaining four years, that is about 80 million in on field value.

 

Once you subtract four seasons of escalating Arby salaries from Josh's already optimistic 10 WAR projection it's pretty easy to get to the point where Lux has more surplus value.

 

The other thing to consider, besides nebulous prospect rankings & dollar to WAR calculations, is that the current Dodgers regime has never traded a prospect the caliber of Lux. Buehler, Urias, Bellinger, Seager, Pederson & Will Smith were also all just (really highly ranked) prospects at one point too & they are all still Dodgers.

 

Maybe top prospects are traded for veterans every year, but not by the Dodgers.

 

Yeah but Dodgers haven't won it all in more than 30 years and the frustration is palpable for a franchise with extremely high expectations. It doesn't have to be a straight up Hader for Lux deal. Brewers have a lot of guys who fall in the "sweetener" category.

[sveumrules]

The math indicates that the Brewers, not the Dodgers, would need to add any sweeteners though...

 

Lux (55 to 80 million surplus value) > Hader (80 million minus four years of Arby salaries)

 

Most teams (especially one as smart as the Dodgers) will also bake some injury/attrition risk into their Hader projections, so the 10 WAR/80 million starting point is probably already high to begin with.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The math indicates that the Brewers, not the Dodgers, would need to add any sweeteners though...

 

Lux (55 to 80 million surplus value) > Hader (80 million minus four years of Arby salaries)

 

Most teams (especially one as smart as the Dodgers) will also bake some injury/attrition risk into their Hader projections, so the 10 WAR/80 million starting point is probably already high to begin with.

 

The Brewers aren't idiots, and they would bake the same injury risk into their offer. Plus, I don't think the Brewers would be the ones going to the Dodgers. The Dodgers would be the pursuers here, so the Brewers would hold that card. The Brewers certainly do not need to trade Hader. Not at all.

[sveumrules]

The 55-80 million surplus value estimation range for Lux already has the risk baked into it...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

 

http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2018-updated-edition/

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The 55-80 million surplus value estimation range for Lux already has the risk baked into it...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

 

http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2018-updated-edition/

 

Fair enough. Obviously the valuations don't take leverage into account, though. I'd argue that the Brewers would hold a large portion of the leverage in this particular situation.

 

Its because of that that I don't think the Brewers would even consider dealing Hader unless they feel bowled over by an offer. I don't know if Lux by himself would do that. Of course, we have no idea how much value the Brewers place on Lux either.

[wntrtxn21]

The math indicates that the Brewers, not the Dodgers, would need to add any sweeteners though...

 

Lux (55 to 80 million surplus value) > Hader (80 million minus four years of Arby salaries)

 

Most teams (especially one as smart as the Dodgers) will also bake some injury/attrition risk into their Hader projections, so the 10 WAR/80 million starting point is probably already high to begin with.

 

Surplus value is meaningless when talking about an unproven player. Lux has potential. Hader is a proven all-star. There are lots of examples where "high surplus value" prospects didn't pan out in the big leagues. The Brewers have had their fair share of such prospects. Until Lux proves he is of MLB caliber, Hader remains more valuable, especially to the Dodgers who already have Seagers.

[sveumrules]

The math indicates that the Brewers, not the Dodgers, would need to add any sweeteners though...

 

Lux (55 to 80 million surplus value) > Hader (80 million minus four years of Arby salaries)

 

Most teams (especially one as smart as the Dodgers) will also bake some injury/attrition risk into their Hader projections, so the 10 WAR/80 million starting point is probably already high to begin with.

 

Surplus value is meaningless when talking about an unproven player. Lux has potential. Hader is a proven all-star. There are lots of examples where "high surplus value" prospects didn't pan out in the big leagues. The Brewers have had their fair share of such prospects. Until Lux proves he is of MLB caliber, Hader remains more valuable, especially to the Dodgers who already have Seagers.

 

Surplus value is not meaningless when talking about an unproven player. Both the links upthread discuss the methodology & front offices perform their own proprietary versions of the same exercise to aid in determining the values of prospects in their & other team's systems.

 

Edwin Diaz, Blake Treinen & Jose LeClerc were all as good or better than Hader in 2018, how did they do in 2019? Look at the top 10 relievers in 2017, how did they do in 2019.

 

Relievers, even elite ones, carry just as much if not more risk than elite position prospects with a broad range of across the board skills like Lux.

[Madhawk23]

Lux is a consensus top 10 prospect, FanGraphs has him at a 60 FV. That puts his surplus value somewhere in the neighborhood of 55-80 million dollars depending on your preferred methodology.

 

Hader has averaged around 2.5 WAR per full season, even if you assume no attrition/injury risk & put him down for 10 WAR over his remaining four years, that is about 80 million in on field value.

 

Once you subtract four seasons of escalating Arby salaries from Josh's already optimistic 10 WAR projection it's pretty easy to get to the point where Lux has more surplus value.

 

The other thing to consider, besides nebulous prospect rankings & dollar to WAR calculations, is that the current Dodgers regime has never traded a prospect the caliber of Lux. Buehler, Urias, Bellinger, Seager, Pederson & Will Smith were also all just (really highly ranked) prospects at one point too & they are all still Dodgers.

 

Maybe top prospects are traded for veterans every year, but not by the Dodgers.

 

Yeah but Dodgers haven't won it all in more than 30 years and the frustration is palpable for a franchise with extremely high expectations. It doesn't have to be a straight up Hader for Lux deal. Brewers have a lot of guys who fall in the "sweetener" category.

 

I think this is the "wild card" in all of this. The Dodgers are going to be DESPERATE to win it all next season, after falling short 7 straight years now. Especially after this past season where they had the best record in the NL and one of the best records in all of baseball, and didn't even make it to the NLCS. AND, it was their late inning bullpen that eventually let them down. So, while a deal like this will probably never happen - I think there is a lot that makes sense here. And, if 3 months of Chapman nets the Yankees Torres, how can 4 years of Hader not be worth more than just Gavin Lux? If I'm Stearns, I'm asking for Lux and Ruiz for Hader, and I honestly wouldn't rule out asking for another prospect in the deal as well.

[Oxy]

Hader to the Mets for Andres Gimenez (blocked), Dom Smith (blocked), Mark Vientos and Shervyn Newton.

 

All of a sudden we actually have some position player prospects with one ready to play everyday this year (Smith), and one who is fairly close (Gimenez) plus a couple other interesting guys.

 

Controllable young talent! We need some.

[Madhawk23]

Hader to the Mets for Andres Gimenez (blocked), Dom Smith (blocked), Mark Vientos and Shervyn Newton.

 

All of a sudden we actually have some position player prospects with one ready to play everyday this year (Smith), and one who is fairly close (Gimenez) plus a couple other interesting guys.

 

Controllable young talent! We need some.

 

Meh....no thanks. I see nothing but major question marks in the four guys you listed. Yeah, maybe our farm system ranking gets a slight boost, but I would want 1-2 "can't miss" prospects for a guy like Hader if we are going to trade him away this early.

 

Just look what the Mets had to give up last year for Edwin Diaz. Kelenic and Dunn came back in that package!

[Oxy]

 

Meh....no thanks. I see nothing but major question marks in the four guys you listed. Yeah, maybe our farm system ranking gets a slight boost, but I would want 1-2 "can't miss" prospects for a guy like Hader if we are going to trade him away this early.

 

Just look what the Mets had to give up last year for Edwin Diaz. Kelenic and Dunn came back in that package!

 

I would have agreed with this in July. A true blue chip prospect plus a few high upside guys. However, now we also save $5-$6M this year (+ likely $10-12M in his arby 4 2023 year).

 

That trade value website dropped his suplus value from around $80M to around $48M. We might get one blue chipper now, but I don't want to put all my eggs in one prospect basket... Those are 4 high upside guys at positions of extreme need for the franchise. I think that's about as good as we are going to get.

[adambr2]

To me the case for selling Hader is actually getting pretty strong. He's going to get pricey, he's a reliever which by his very nature makes him potentially volatile going forward, and he's still got a ton of value.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think that's about as good as we are going to get.

 

Then you don't "get". The Brewers are under no pressure or obligation to deal Hader this offseason. If he's dealt, it isn't going to be for a blocked 1B as the headliner, and a bunch of "maybes" years away from the majors. It would be for a haul that includes either super high-end youngsters or a package of high-upside ML-ready players. If you don't see offers like that, simply don't engage.

[wntrtxn21]

I think that's about as good as we are going to get.

 

Then you don't "get". The Brewers are under no pressure or obligation to deal Hader this offseason. If he's dealt, it isn't going to be for a blocked 1B as the headliner, and a bunch of "maybes" years away from the majors. It would be for a haul that includes either super high-end youngsters or a package of high-upside ML-ready players. If you don't see offers like that, simply don't engage.

 

I agree 100%. Gimenez didn't live up to expectations in AA (.250/.305/.695 OPS). The Mets downgraded him after his showing in there. Smith did well, but he's a 1B and easily replaceable. Vientos is still in A ball and 3-4 years away. Newton stunk in A ball (.209/.283) and is 4-5 years away IF he gets that far. All together the package isn't close to what Hader is worth to the Brewers. They get an Ok 1B and nothing else for years, if at all.

[Oxy]

I think that's about as good as we are going to get.

 

Then you don't "get". The Brewers are under no pressure or obligation to deal Hader this offseason. If he's dealt, it isn't going to be for a blocked 1B as the headliner, and a bunch of "maybes" years away from the majors. It would be for a haul that includes either super high-end youngsters or a package of high-upside ML-ready players. If you don't see offers like that, simply don't engage.

 

I agree 100%. Gimenez didn't live up to expectations in AA (.250/.305/.695 OPS). The Mets downgraded him after his showing in there. Smith did well, but he's a 1B and easily replaceable. Vientos is still in A ball and 3-4 years away. Newton stunk in A ball (.209/.283) and is 4-5 years away IF he gets that far. All together the package isn't close to what Hader is worth to the Brewers. They get an Ok 1B and nothing else for years, if at all.

 

You guys are probably right, but I just have some horrible feeling that either Hader gets hurt as is done for a year and never comes back right or downright loses his command and the BBs skyrocket before the already way-too-high HR rate and he is quickly a borderline MLBer let alone dominant closer.

 

Call me jaded by 30 Brewer years of 1-2 years of an elite closer and then worthlessness...

[clancyphile]

I think that's about as good as we are going to get.

 

Then you don't "get". The Brewers are under no pressure or obligation to deal Hader this offseason. If he's dealt, it isn't going to be for a blocked 1B as the headliner, and a bunch of "maybes" years away from the majors. It would be for a haul that includes either super high-end youngsters or a package of high-upside ML-ready players. If you don't see offers like that, simply don't engage.

 

Were I the Brewers GM, the Mets would need to offer a package that started with Jeff McNeil and Dom Smith, plus minor-league pitchers Andrew Mitchell and Garrison Bryant, and in return they get Hader and Lucas Erceg.

[brewcrewdue80]

What about the Atlanta Braves? They would clearly have the SP our team needs. Their 3 highest Games Finished RP, not one below 3.7ERA. But now I'm looking and they traded 2 SP prospects this season including a guy I'd take all day in Kolby Allard!!! OMG for a 17.2IP 4.08ERA 33yr old Chris Martin. Wow. Ian Anderson would be the top SP prospect now. Not as high at #2, Kyle Wright(may be living on #5 pick) but #3 is Bryce Wilson who MLB.com says is the first HS player to reach the Majors from 2016. Same class as Anderson. So there's that.

 

Minnesota is another team I'm wondering about. Top prospect is Royce Lewis a SS who is currently blocked by one Jorge Polanco a 5.7WAR SS this season and signed for 4more years with 2 option years beyond that. Maybe you can flip Hader and Arcia for Polanco and the Twins #2 SP prospect ranked 75th currently, Jordan Balazovic. Twins would open up SS for Lewis and by the looks of it have a heckuva shut down Bullpen based on last season's stats.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I wouldn't touch Atlanta starting pitching prospects with a 100-foot pole. Overhyped, overrated junk. It's why they are constantly stealing and begging for starting pitching despite having all these "highly-rated" starters in their system.

[Madhawk23]

I think that's about as good as we are going to get.

 

Then you don't "get". The Brewers are under no pressure or obligation to deal Hader this offseason. If he's dealt, it isn't going to be for a blocked 1B as the headliner, and a bunch of "maybes" years away from the majors. It would be for a haul that includes either super high-end youngsters or a package of high-upside ML-ready players. If you don't see offers like that, simply don't engage.

 

Exactly! We're not trading away one of the best/nastiest relievers in the game (that we still control for several more years) to a "blah" package of prospects. I don't care what the trade value database/reports tell you, there's just no way that Stearns is making that kind of move. A team would have to knock our socks off with an offer this winter if we are going to be dealing Hader - and it would have to include young talent that is MLB ready, because our window to win is now.

[Madhawk23]

What about the Atlanta Braves? They would clearly have the SP our team needs. Their 3 highest Games Finished RP, not one below 3.7ERA. But now I'm looking and they traded 2 SP prospects this season including a guy I'd take all day in Kolby Allard!!! OMG for a 17.2IP 4.08ERA 33yr old Chris Martin. Wow. Ian Anderson would be the top SP prospect now. Not as high at #2, Kyle Wright(may be living on #5 pick) but #3 is Bryce Wilson who MLB.com says is the first HS player to reach the Majors from 2016. Same class as Anderson. So there's that.

 

Minnesota is another team I'm wondering about. Top prospect is Royce Lewis a SS who is currently blocked by one Jorge Polanco a 5.7WAR SS this season and signed for 4more years with 2 option years beyond that. Maybe you can flip Hader and Arcia for Polanco and the Twins #2 SP prospect ranked 75th currently, Jordan Balazovic. Twins would open up SS for Lewis and by the looks of it have a heckuva shut down Bullpen based on last season's stats.

 

The Twins might be a team that would have some interest in Hader, but I guess I can't see them giving up Polanco. They are clearly in a win-now mode as well, so why would they want to give up their stud, controllable SS in this deal - and replace him with the no-hitting SS in Arcia? Yeah, they'd get Hader back in return - but I doubt this is something they'd be willing to do. Maybe they'd throw us an offer of Royce Lewis and Balazovic for Hader, but this does nothing for our win-now mentality, as neither of those guys are ready to contribute quite yet at the MLB level.

[Vollbc74]

I think the Dodgers line up well as a trade partner for Hader. They have depth at out positions of need, can afford his soon to be inflating salary, and have the bullpen need.

 

Josh Hader for Corey Seager, Edwin Rios, and Connor Wong.

 

Seager is a top of the line SS when healthy and fits our Win-Now window with 2 years of control. He also serves as a good bridge to Turang for 2022.

 

Rios is a mashing 1B that is blocked in LA and would replace Thames as a LH 1B option and bench bat.

 

Wong is a high floor C prospect that can be ready for 2021 to replace Pina as our backup or gives us Nottingham insurance if he struggles again in 2020.

 

SS- Saeger (L)

RF - Yelich (L)

2B - Hiura

3B - Moustakas (L)

1B - Braun/Rios

LF - Grisham (L)

CF - Cain

C - Pina/Freitas

 

Resign Moose at around 11m AAV and spend remaining $$ on a tier 2 SP (Wheeler/Kuechel/Odorizzi) and high leverage BP arm (Pomeranz/Betances)

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think the Dodgers line up well as a trade partner for Hader. They have depth at out positions of need, can afford his soon to be inflating salary, and have the bullpen need.

 

Josh Hader for Corey Seager, Edwin Rios, and Connor Wong.

 

Seager is a top of the line SS when healthy and fits our Win-Now window with 2 years of control. He also serves as a good bridge to Turang for 2022.

 

Rios is a mashing 1B that is blocked in LA and would replace Thames as a LH 1B option and bench bat.

 

Wong is a high floor C prospect that can be ready for 2021 to replace Pina as our backup or gives us Nottingham insurance if he struggles again in 2020.

 

SS- Saeger (L)

RF - Yelich (L)

2B - Hiura

3B - Moustakas (L)

1B - Braun/Rios

LF - Grisham (L)

CF - Cain

C - Pina/Freitas

 

Resign Moose at around 11m AAV and spend remaining $$ on a tier 2 SP (Wheeler/Kuechel/Odorizzi) and high leverage BP arm (Pomeranz/Betances)

 

Rios certainly fits the bill as a LH power bat who is capable of playing multiple positions. His best spot is 1B, but he can also play 3B and the corner OF. Really does seem like a Stearns-type guy. Wong is also a very versatile guy who spent time at 3B. This is the exact type of deal I see the Brewers making if they were to deal Hader ... getting a young proven major league piece back, along with two prospects who are pretty much ready for the show.

 

Nice work! This is the best package I've seen yet. I love Hader, but I think I'd do this deal, as it shores up SS, 1B and C with some really solid upside.

[JosephC]

This has been a pretty interesting thread with valid points made by both sides.

 

Has there been one credible report that the Dodgers are interested in Hader, or is that just BrewerFan speculation? I did a quick internet search and couldn't find anything that suggests the Dodgers have an interest in trading for Hader.