Relief Pitching Options

[Madhawk23]

So, what are we realistically going to have to give up for 2 months of an all-star closer like Will Smith? And no - I don't want to hear the Phil Bickford jokes (although we all can dream, right!).

 

I saw some SF Giants blog site had a proposal of Lutz, Z. Brown and Ernesto. Really? Please tell me that they are way off base in that projection! I know Brown is not having a good year, but that's still a guy that was highly thought of coming into the season, and that would be two of our top 6 prospects going back to the Giants - along with a big high upside guy in Ernesto.

 

According to that trade value chart, if the Giants were interested in Dubon, it would take having to add another prospect in the caliber of Henry, Feliciano or Erceg to get it done evenly.

 

And, this is why I hate trading for high value rental players! Is trading away this type of young talent really worth 2 months of a reliever? Especially for a guy like Will Smith who has a track record of regression during the 2nd halves of seasons? I could get behind the idea of trading Dubon and either Henry/Feliciano for a guy that we had an additional year of control of, but for 2 months - this seems preposterous to me!

[RollieTime]

So, what are we realistically going to have to give up for 2 months of an all-star closer like Will Smith? And no - I don't want to hear the Phil Bickford jokes (although we all can dream, right!).

 

I saw some SF Giants blog site had a proposal of Lutz, Z. Brown and Ernesto. Really? Please tell me that they are way off base in that projection! I know Brown is not having a good year, but that's still a guy that was highly thought of coming into the season, and that would be two of our top 6 prospects going back to the Giants - along with a big high upside guy in Ernesto.

 

According to that trade value chart, if the Giants were interested in Dubon, it would take having to add another prospect in the caliber of Henry, Feliciano or Erceg to get it done evenly.

 

And, this is why I hate trading for high value rental players! Is trading away this type of young talent really worth 2 months of a reliever? Especially for a guy like Will Smith who has a track record of regression during the 2nd halves of seasons? I could get behind the idea of trading Dubon and either Henry/Feliciano for a guy that we had an additional year of control of, but for 2 months - this seems preposterous to me!

 

Yeah, there’s no way they should be giving up that kind of value for a rental reliever.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'd be fine dealing Dubon. Dealing Grisham scares me. This could be more than a hot streak. He was the 15th overall pick and it may be the light bulb just went on. Braun can be the RH part of a platoon next year.

[Madhawk23]

I'm fine trading guys like Dubon and Grisham - but I really have no interest in trading them for rental players. Use them as trade assets for someone that you'll have some team control over beyond just this season. I'm not sure how open our window will remain in the next couple of years (or if it's even open right now), but I'd rather not put all of our chips just into the 2019 basket - especially given how mediocre this team looks right now.

[KeithStone53151]

So apparently the article I posted(too cheap to pay for the Athletic) hints at a Dubon for Smith trade? Is that true? That feels like way too much for a rental. It might make sense to trade Dubon+ for MadBum AND Smith. I'm aware the + would have to be fairly significant. Dubon + Supak + Henry maybe?

[tmwiese55]

Wouldn't be bad to just get it done in one trade. Smith and another SF reliever like Moronta, Watson or maybe even Dyson. They'd immediately become our 2nd and 3rd best RP options. Pushes two to the minors and other guys like Guerra and Claudio (lefty specialist) to their proper roles. I'd think Burnes would be one out to AAA so maybe he can get things fixed and be back for the stretch run close to what he was last year

[KeithStone53151]

Wouldn't be bad to just get it done in one trade. Smith and another SF reliever like Moronta, Watson or maybe even Dyson. They'd immediately become our 2nd and 3rd best RP options. Pushes two to the minors and other guys like Guerra and Claudio (lefty specialist) to their proper roles. I'd think Burnes would be one out to AAA so maybe he can get things fixed and be back for the stretch run close to what he was last year

 

I think there will be enough relief options that we don't need to pony up a good prospect for Smith+. I think we're better off trading lesser prospects on separate deals for relievers than giving up Dubon for 2 guys. It would be one thing if we were getting MadBum as well, but I think we can get better deals on 2 relievers than giving up Dubon. Plus, trading Dubon creates a hole at SS...as Saladino/Arcia aren't exactly getting it done.

[Jopal78]

If they could get Will Smith now, for Dubon I'd have pulled the trigger yesterday.

 

The offensive stat sheets looks good for Dubon until you zoom out.

 

His OPS at AAA this year was .829. Spangenberg, Saladino and Freitas are all bonafide fringe major leaguers due to poor offensive skills, yet all have an OPS in San Antonio that is superior to Dubon's.

 

Granted his at bats were curtailed due to knee injury but Dubon's OPS of .922 in Colorado Springs was topped by Ji-Man Choi in a similar number of at bats. Orlando Arcia was at .911 in a similar number of at bats. Choi is with his sixth organization since coming to America.

 

In 2017, Dubon's OPS at AA (.689) was bested by Michael Reed (.698), Clint Coulter ((now of the Sioux Falls Canaries of the American Association)) (.721) both guys that were freely available talent 7 months ago.

 

I just don't see Dubon being anything more than a defensive oriented middle infielder with a weak bat. Those type of players aren't hard to find (as Saladino and Sogard prove), so if the Brewers could land a true asset for him, I'd do so before Milwaukee calls him up again and he proves he has trouble hitting MLB Pitching.

[And That]

I just don't see Dubon being anything more than a defensive oriented middle infielder with a weak bat.

Again, his bat is well ahead of his glove. He doesn't project to be much more than average defensively.

[KeithStone53151]

If they could get Will Smith now, for Dubon I'd have pulled the trigger yesterday.

 

The offensive stat sheets looks good for Dubon until you zoom out.

 

His OPS at AAA this year was .829. Spangenberg, Saladino and Freitas are all bonafide fringe major leaguers due to poor offensive skills, yet all have an OPS in San Antonio that is superior to Dubon's.

 

Granted his at bats were curtailed due to knee injury but Dubon's OPS of .922 in Colorado Springs was topped by Ji-Man Choi in a similar number of at bats. Orlando Arcia was at .911 in a similar number of at bats. Choi is with his sixth organization since coming to America.

 

In 2017, Dubon's OPS at AA (.689) was bested by Michael Reed (.698), Clint Coulter ((now of the Sioux Falls Canaries of the American Association)) (.721) both guys that were freely available talent 7 months ago.

 

I just don't see Dubon being anything more than a defensive oriented middle infielder with a weak bat. Those type of players aren't hard to find (as Saladino and Sogard prove), so if the Brewers could land a true asset for him, I'd do so before Milwaukee calls him up again and he proves he has trouble hitting MLB Pitching.

 

Dubon is a better pure hitter than Spange/Saladino/freitas/etc...he also was returning from most of a missed season and wasn't as good in April/May. He was better than all the guys you listed in June/July, he also has more speed and is a better defender than any of them. Dubon has added strenght since 2017, and you are cherry picking as 2017 was by far the worst of his career. Dubon is over a 300 hitter over his minor league career and should hit for average and therefore get on base at the mlb level. The Brewers could sure use a guy that gets on base at a high clip as we have plenty of bats that can bring him around to score.

[KeithStone53151]

One additional comment, if the Giants rattle off a 8 wins in 10 game stretch over the first week and a half...they might not sell. The are currently thumping the Rockies in game 1 of a doubleheader today. It's possible playing the Giants now was simply bad timing...kinda like when we faced the Marlins in June.

[tmwiese55]

I also am not terribly high on Dubon. Sure it looks like he'll be a competent MLB player but I don't see any kind of star or "+ player" in him. Essentially on the same level/tier as an Arcia is giving you. It's good to have him as insurance at all IF spots especially as a potential Arcia replacement if he falls off more but my guess is that we would not end up kicking ourselves for letting him go. It's not like I want to trade him or anything, I'd love to have him around and hope he could be more than I'm saying, but you have to give up something in a trade.

[pacopete4]

When Dubon pinch hit the other day, he looked like he just fell out of his mom with that baby face. Couldn’t believe how young he looked. And he is tiny. I thought Arcia is small but man, there is nothing to Dubon.

[Jopal78]

Dubon is a better pure hitter than Spange/Saladino/freitas/etc...he also was returning from most of a missed season and wasn't as good in April/May. He was better than all the guys you listed in June/July, he also has more speed and is a better defender than any of them. Dubon has added strenght since 2017, and you are cherry picking as 2017 was by far the worst of his career. Dubon is over a 300 hitter over his minor league career and should hit for average and therefore get on base at the mlb level. The Brewers could sure use a guy that gets on base at a high clip as we have plenty of bats that can bring him around to score.

 

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt if you've seen him play with your own eyes. All I have to go by is the stat sheet; and at every level of the minor leagues his numbers are bested by players who couldn't hit at the big league level. Importantly too, he might hit .300 and get on base in the minor leagues but there isn't Cole Hamels, Jon Lester, Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Jack Flaherty, Adam Wainwright, James Taillon type competition in the minor leagues. To suggest he did it in the minor leagues against lesser competition in no way proves he is going to do it against the very best pitchers he's ever seen.

 

It's very possible the bat could somehow blossom at the major league level. However, there are some pretty legitimate question marks about that, as well as where he fits in on the Milwaukee team going forward. Unless the Brewers give up on Orlando Arcia his only role in the near future would be that of a utility bench player.

 

If Will Smith is the difference between fighting for the 2nd wild card or playing out the string in September, I don't think Dubon's potential keeps him around past 7/31.

[Brewcrewin07]

I mean who says Smith just has to be a rental?? Why couldn't they try to resign him next year?? He's a RP, I mean how much would he make?? 2 yrs...24 million?? That seems reasonable.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I mean who says Smith just has to be a rental?? Why couldn't they try to resign him next year?? He's a RP, I mean how much would he make?? 2 yrs...24 million?? That seems reasonable.

 

The idea of the Brewers resigning him doesn't add to his value or not make him a rental. Sure, they could sign him, but every other team would have the same opportunity. If they deal for him, it has to be with the idea that it is for the rest of this season and that's it.

[adambr2]

I mean who says Smith just has to be a rental?? Why couldn't they try to resign him next year?? He's a RP, I mean how much would he make?? 2 yrs...24 million?? That seems reasonable.

 

The idea of the Brewers resigning him doesn't add to his value or not make him a rental. Sure, they could sign him, but every other team would have the same opportunity. If they deal for him, it has to be with the idea that it is for the rest of this season and that's it.

 

This is all true, but there is something to be said for the current team possibly having an advantage in some cases. I doubt Moose is here now if we don't trade for him. Smith always struck me as someone who liked being here.

[Boomer5]

If all it takes to land one of the best pitchers in baseball is Dubon, we do that that now.

[brewmann04]

Dubon and Ray might have to be traded to get smith.

[pacopete4]

Dubon and Ray might have to be traded to get smith.

 

Awesome. Can’t wait to see what we fetch for Grandal, Moose, Chacin and possibly others then.

[umphrey]

Dubon for Smith I’ll do it for sure if I think the team is good enough to be buyers

[brewmann04]

i think the Giants ask for a second player.

[JosephC]

Giants would definitely ask for another player. But I have Dubon's prospect surplus value at 7.4 million and I'd figure Smith to be valued at around 10 million in surplus value in a trade...so Dubon should make up well over 50% of the value heading to the Giants. If the Giants want upside, they could ask for Bello as being a second player and that would be pretty fair...the Brewers might want to ship them someone like Erceg or Stokes as a second player and the Giant's 40-man roster aspects could play into that.

[Boomer5]

Dubon and Ray might have to be traded to get smith.

 

Easy yes for Stearns.

[KeithStone53151]

I was just cruising through fan forums for the Giants. They only seem interested in trading Will Smith to us if they get Hiura or Turang in return. SMH