Relief Pitching Options

[nate82]

For a pitching prospect to carry 26 million dollars in surplus value, he'd have to rate at around #60 on the top 100 prospects list on my board, and I haven't seen Ashby anywhere in that neighborhood on any list. We'll see what the mid-season updates look like about a month from now. I'll stick with my guess of Ashby being worth about 5.5 million dollars in prospect surplus value to an average MLB team....and if I have under-estimated that value, I'd still guess that his prospect surplus value would top out at about 10.6 million at this time.

 

Prospect lists is a horrible way of evaluating value. After the top 50 you basically have the same player with the same warts it is basically just a guessing game after 50. You could even argue that anyone beyond the top 25 are basically the same player.

 

Players beyond the top 50 are players who scouts like because of athleticism or some other non arbitrary reason.

[JohnBriggs12]

For a pitching prospect to carry 26 million dollars in surplus value, he'd have to rate at around #60 on the top 100 prospects list on my board, and I haven't seen Ashby anywhere in that neighborhood on any list. We'll see what the mid-season updates look like about a month from now. I'll stick with my guess of Ashby being worth about 5.5 million dollars in prospect surplus value to an average MLB team....and if I have under-estimated that value, I'd still guess that his prospect surplus value would top out at about 10.6 million at this time.

 

Prospect lists is a horrible way of evaluating value. After the top 50 you basically have the same player with the same warts it is basically just a guessing game after 50. You could even argue that anyone beyond the top 25 are basically the same player.

 

Players beyond the top 50 are players who scouts like because of athleticism or some other non arbitrary reason.

 

Anyone can see who the athletes are. Brinson was supposed to be this super prospect 2 years ago. Who's making a bigger impact in the majors right now? Garrett Cooper who had a hard time cracking the Brewer top 25 but could always hit a baseball. Never underestimate guys that hit at every level.

[Brew crew 92]

For a pitching prospect to carry 26 million dollars in surplus value, he'd have to rate at around #60 on the top 100 prospects list on my board, and I haven't seen Ashby anywhere in that neighborhood on any list. We'll see what the mid-season updates look like about a month from now. I'll stick with my guess of Ashby being worth about 5.5 million dollars in prospect surplus value to an average MLB team....and if I have under-estimated that value, I'd still guess that his prospect surplus value would top out at about 10.6 million at this time.

 

Prospect lists is a horrible way of evaluating value. After the top 50 you basically have the same player with the same warts it is basically just a guessing game after 50. You could even argue that anyone beyond the top 25 are basically the same player.

 

Players beyond the top 50 are players who scouts like because of athleticism or some other non arbitrary reason.

 

Anyone can see who the athletes are. Brinson was supposed to be this super prospect 2 years ago. Who's making a bigger impact in the majors right now? Garrett Cooper who had a hard time cracking the Brewer top 25 but could always hit a baseball. Never underestimate guys that hit at every level.

 

Exactly.

Stearns has made mistakes, Cooper, drafting Ray, but I think he recognizes the hit tool is by far the most important tool, that’s why Yelich and Cain are brewers, Hiura and Turang drafted.

[Warning Track Power]

 

An old friend is available for free. Sign him up and trade for Will Smith and we're back in business! 2016 business!

[wntrtxn21]

 

An old friend is available for free. Sign him up and trade for Will Smith and we're back in business! 2016 business!

 

Thornburg has been beyond awful since coming off surgery. He's was horrendous in AAA too so the Red Sox are letting him go. No thanks, he's not worth even a minor lg. contract.

[jw5511986]

 

An old friend is available for free. Sign him up and trade for Will Smith and we're back in business! 2016 business!

 

Thornburg has been beyond awful since coming off surgery. He's was horrendous in AAA too so the Red Sox are letting him go. No thanks, he's not worth even a minor lg. contract.

I would normally agree but Jeffress bought all relievers enough good will with me that I try it out again.

[Brew crew 92]

Trade for Ian Kennedy:

Kennedy & 6.5 mil. > T. Williams & Stokes & Lemons

 

Trade for Will Smith:

Smith> Ray & Henry & Diplan

 

I have Kennedy for next year as well at 10 mil. And Smith for this year’s stretch run.

 

I then Option Claudio.

I Move Burnes & Peralta to AAA, to start, and work on their mix, and the end of August I have the option depending on how they are pitching and the big league rotation is doing, put one or both into the rotation or bullpen for the playoffs.

[OldHeidelberg]

Trade for Ian Kennedy:

Kennedy & 6.5 mil. > T. Williams & Stokes & Lemons

 

Trade for Will Smith:

Smith> Ray & Henry & Diplan

 

I have Kennedy for next year as well at 10 mil. And Smith for this year’s stretch run.

 

I then Option Claudio.

I Move Burnes & Peralta to AAA, to start, and work on their mix, and the end of August I have the option depending on how they are pitching and the big league rotation is doing, put one or both into the rotation or bullpen for the playoffs.

 

I don't see the Brewers giving up Ray for a rental, I think maybe you just don't like him so I can see why you don't mind but I doubt the Brewers share that view. Smith has been really good and may fetch a prospect as good as Ray but the Brewers don't have the prospect depth and can't make it up in FA like some of the other contenders. Someone else said it here yesterday but the recent slide should take most of the Brewers top 10 prospects off the block until the team shows they have turned it around.

[Brew crew 92]

Trade for Ian Kennedy:

Kennedy & 6.5 mil. > T. Williams & Stokes & Lemons

 

Trade for Will Smith:

Smith> Ray & Henry & Diplan

 

I have Kennedy for next year as well at 10 mil. And Smith for this year’s stretch run.

 

I then Option Claudio.

I Move Burnes & Peralta to AAA, to start, and work on their mix, and the end of August I have the option depending on how they are pitching and the big league rotation is doing, put one or both into the rotation or bullpen for the playoffs.

 

I don't see the Brewers giving up Ray for a rental, I think maybe you just don't like him so I can see why you don't mind but I doubt the Brewers share that view. Smith has been really good and may fetch a prospect as good as Ray but the Brewers don't have the prospect depth and can't make it up in FA like some of the other contenders. Someone else said it here yesterday but the recent slide should take most of the Brewers top 10 prospects off the block until the team shows they have turned it around.

 

Your correct, I don’t like Ray as a prospect. Imo, Grisham has surpassed him as a prospect, but I’m making this trade now, not in 17 days, that will require Not just Ray but Peyton Henry as well.

[LouisEly]

Trade for Ian Kennedy:

Kennedy & 6.5 mil. > T. Williams & Stokes & Lemons.

Kennedy is 34 and due $16.5M next year, as well as the remainder of that this year (~$8M right now). The Royals will have to throw in a lot more than $6.5M to get those prospects.

 

For reference, last year a 34-year-old proven closer in Joakim Soria who was making only $9M was acquired for Kodi Medeiros and a 20-year-old DSL arm and the White Sox kicked in $1M to cover the buyout of Soria's 2019 option. If the Brewers weren't going to pay Soria $10M for 2019, they sure as heck aren't going to pay Kennedy $16.5M.

 

Kennedy isn't a proven closer like Soria, so the net would have to be no more than $3M for the rest of this year and no more than $5M for next year. The Royals would have to kick in at least $16.5M in order to get those prospects, and likely only two of the three.

[OldHeidelberg]

 

Your correct, I don’t like Ray as a prospect. Imo, Grisham has surpassed him as a prospect, but I’m making this trade now, not in 17 days, that will require Not just Ray but Peyton Henry as well.

 

I am as happy about Grisham as anyone but he is hitting .252 with an .860 OPS on the year, nice but not so great it jumps him ahead of 28 other guys in half a season. I don't think he is having as good a season as Ray did last year. Plus he is a corner OF while Ray can play center in the majors, I guess he is 2 years younger but Ray's all around game still keeps him near the top of our system IMO.

[adambr2]

 

Your correct, I don’t like Ray as a prospect. Imo, Grisham has surpassed him as a prospect, but I’m making this trade now, not in 17 days, that will require Not just Ray but Peyton Henry as well.

 

I am as happy about Grisham as anyone but he is hitting .252 with an .860 OPS on the year, nice but not so great it jumps him ahead of 28 other guys in half a season. I don't think he is having as good a season as Ray did last year. Plus he is a corner OF while Ray can play center in the majors, I guess he is 2 years younger but Ray's all around game still keeps him near the top of our system IMO.

 

Grisham has literally not played any other position than CF this year, so I don't know why you would assume he is limited to the corners while Ray can play CF at this level.

[OldHeidelberg]

 

Your correct, I don’t like Ray as a prospect. Imo, Grisham has surpassed him as a prospect, but I’m making this trade now, not in 17 days, that will require Not just Ray but Peyton Henry as well.

 

I am as happy about Grisham as anyone but he is hitting .252 with an .860 OPS on the year, nice but not so great it jumps him ahead of 28 other guys in half a season. I don't think he is having as good a season as Ray did last year. Plus he is a corner OF while Ray can play center in the majors, I guess he is 2 years younger but Ray's all around game still keeps him near the top of our system IMO.

 

Grisham has literally not played any other position than CF this year, so I don't know why you would assume he is limited to the corners while Ray can play CF at this level.

 

I guess that is my impression from scouting reports? I could be wrong there as I checked and the one below doesn't say Grisham can't play center in the majors but i thought he profiled more as a corner guy as a MLB starter. He is certainly not as fast as Ray.

 

From pipeline:

 

Ray's wheels also serve him well in center field, where he's an above-average defender with at least average arm strength.

 

 

Defensively, Grisham primarily plays left field but has seen time at all three outfield positions throughout his career.

[Brew crew 92]

Trade for Ian Kennedy:

Kennedy & 6.5 mil. > T. Williams & Stokes & Lemons.

Kennedy is 34 and due $16.5M next year, as well as the remainder of that this year (~$8M right now). The Royals will have to throw in a lot more than $6.5M to get those prospects.

 

For reference, last year a 34-year-old proven closer in Joakim Soria who was making only $9M was acquired for Kodi Medeiros and a 20-year-old DSL arm and the White Sox kicked in $1M to cover the buyout of Soria's 2019 option. If the Brewers weren't going to pay Soria $10M for 2019, they sure as heck aren't going to pay Kennedy $16.5M.

 

Kennedy isn't a proven closer like Soria, so the net would have to be no more than $3M for the rest of this year and no more than $5M for next year. The Royals would have to kick in at least $16.5M in order to get those prospects, and likely only two of the three.

 

Ok, makes sense, all I know is I want Kennedy, his peripherals are good, he should be a real weapon the rest of this year and next.

[And That]

Grisham has literally not played any other position than CF this year, so I don't know why you would assume he is limited to the corners while Ray can play CF at this level.

Grisham is not very good in center. He's probably a LF in the bigs.

[Jopal78]

The one place the Brewers have minor league depth is outfield. Grisham is perfect to be traded. There isn’t a path to regular big league at bats with Milwaukee until 2021. Grisham was heretofore looking like another first round bust until this year. The team should strike while the iron is hot.

 

Likewise Corey Ray is already going to be 25 years old in September and doesn’t have a path to everyday at bats with the Brewers until 2021. An advanced college hitter who’s been in the system for three and a half years with mixed results and injury problems; they’d be wise to trade him off before the bottom falls out of his value.

 

I don’t know if one of those alone would net Will Smith in return. Could always package Erceg with them as another college player with potential and mixed results in the minors with no clear path to regular playing time in Milwaukee.

[nate82]

The one place the Brewers have minor league depth is outfield. Grisham is perfect to be traded. There isn’t a path to regular big league at bats with Milwaukee until 2021. Grisham was heretofore looking like another first round bust until this year. The team should strike while the iron is hot.

 

Likewise Corey Ray is already going to be 25 years old in September and doesn’t have a path to everyday at bats with the Brewers until 2021. An advanced college hitter who’s been in the system for three and a half years with mixed results and injury problems; they’d be wise to trade him off before the bottom falls out of his value.

 

I don’t know if one of those alone would net Will Smith in return. Could always package Erceg with them as another college player with potential and mixed results in the minors with no clear path to regular playing time in Milwaukee.

 

Braun can go to the bench if Grisham or Ray are pushing him for playing time.

 

I wouldn't even mind if the Brewers just give him his buyout early and just release him after this season is over.

[markedman5]

The Athletic says Brewers are in discussions with Giants about Will Smith. Mentions Dubon might be in the deal if it happens......not imminent.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The Athletic says Brewers are in discussions with Giants about Will Smith. Mentions Dubon might be in the deal if it happens......not imminent.

 

This makes perfect sense. Smith would be a great fit at the back of the pen. I imagine it's going to take another solid prospect in addition to Dubon, though.

[KeithStone53151]

 

Here's a link to an article, not sure if that's the source.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

The Athletic says Brewers are in discussions with Giants about Will Smith. Mentions Dubon might be in the deal if it happens......not imminent.

 

This makes perfect sense. Smith would be a great fit at the back of the pen. I imagine it's going to take another solid prospect in addition to Dubon, though.

 

It’d be nice to get a true closer and put hader back into that swing role he had. Would they take Bickford back?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The Athletic says Brewers are in discussions with Giants about Will Smith. Mentions Dubon might be in the deal if it happens......not imminent.

 

This makes perfect sense. Smith would be a great fit at the back of the pen. I imagine it's going to take another solid prospect in addition to Dubon, though.

 

It’d be nice to get a true closer and put hader back into that swing role he had. Would they take Bickford back?

 

I would guess that is a big no.

[Madhawk23]

So, what are we realistically going to have to give up for 2 months of an all-star closer like Will Smith? And no - I don't want to hear the Phil Bickford jokes (although we all can dream, right!).

 

I saw some SF Giants blog site had a proposal of Lutz, Z. Brown and Ernesto. Really? Please tell me that they are way off base in that projection! I know Brown is not having a good year, but that's still a guy that was highly thought of coming into the season, and that would be two of our top 6 prospects going back to the Giants - along with a big high upside guy in Ernesto.

[tmwiese55]

Yes I think it would be huge to have other reliable guys so Hader can go back to being that bridge guy.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

So, what are we realistically going to have to give up for 2 months of an all-star closer like Will Smith? And no - I don't want to hear the Phil Bickford jokes (although we all can dream, right!).

 

I saw some SF Giants blog site had a proposal of Lutz, Z. Brown and Ernesto. Really? Please tell me that they are way off base in that projection! I know Brown is not having a good year, but that's still a guy that was highly thought of coming into the season, and that would be two of our top 6 prospects going back to the Giants - along with a big high upside guy in Ernesto.

 

According to that trade value chart, if the Giants were interested in Dubon, it would take having to add another prospect in the caliber of Henry, Feliciano or Erceg to get it done evenly.