Relief Pitching Options

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

I was looking at relief options who wouldn't break the bank (no Burnes, Peralta, Huira, Turang, Lutz). Why? Hader won't have to go two innings and he can then go back to back days.

 

#1. Roenis Elias: With Hader, it would be a 7 inning game.

#2. Alex Colome: A notch better than Greene.

#3. Shane Greene: Package with Boyd but Burnes or Peralta would be included.

#4. Ken Giles: Should be reasonable.

#5. Ian Kennedy: Should be reasonable.

#6. Will Smith: The price is rising, Milwaukee may be outbid.

#7. Jake Diekman: Compliment to Albers/Jeffress in the 6th to 8th inning.

#8. Sean Doolittle: Better than what we have.

#9. Sergio Romo: I always wanted him to be a Brewer.

#10. Greg Holland: If all else fails. May be an improvement.

[JohnBriggs12]

Stearns has made a habit of adding White Sox relievers. Colome would be a nice addition. Cubs have interest in Will Smith too. Brewers can't let a team like the Cubs grab him ahead of them.

[wntrtxn21]

I was looking at relief options who wouldn't break the bank (no Burnes, Peralta, Huira, Turang, Lutz). Why? Hader won't have to go two innings and he can then go back to back days.

 

#1. Roenis Elias: With Hader, it would be a 7 inning game.

#2. Alex Colome: A notch better than Greene.

#3. Shane Greene: Package with Boyd but Burnes or Peralta would be included.

#4. Ken Giles: Should be reasonable.

#5. Ian Kennedy: Should be reasonable.

#6. Will Smith: The price is rising, Milwaukee may be outbid.

#7. Jake Diekman: Compliment to Albers/Jeffress in the 6th to 8th inning.

#8. Sean Doolittle: Better than what we have.

#9. Sergio Romo: I always wanted him to be a Brewer.

#10. Greg Holland: If all else fails. May be an improvement.

 

I'm not so sure about Elias. 3.91 FIP - 4 BBs per 9 - more HRs and runs given up than he did all of last year.

I'd love Giles, but he would be costly $6.3M this year and arby eligible, to keep for 2020. What would the Jays take to let him go?

Smith or Doolittle too.

Kennedy is trying to re-invent himself as a reliever and who knows?

I don't think the Brewers have any package near what the Tigers would want for Greene and Boyd, but one can dream.

[Eye Black]

Stearns has made a habit of adding White Sox relievers. Colome would be a nice addition.

My prediction is Álex Colomé, but my reasoning is no better than the number of former White Sox bullpen arms that the Brewers have acquired through either trade or waiver pickup/signing is seemingly endless.

 

The list of relief pitchers that were employed with the Brewers during Stearns’ tenure after pitching at some point in their career with the White Sox includes Anthony Swarzak, Joakim Soria, Xavier Cedeño, Matt Albers, Junior Guerra, Dan Jennings, Boone Logan, Jake Petricka, Juan Mariñez, Carlos Torres. There may be more, but you get the idea.

[Brew crew 92]

Stearns has made a habit of adding White Sox relievers. Colome would be a nice addition.

My prediction is Álex Colomé, but my reasoning is no better than the number of former White Sox bullpen arms that the Brewers have acquired through either trade or waiver pickup/signing is seemingly endless.

 

The list of relief pitchers that were employed with the Brewers during Stearns’ tenure after pitching at some point in their career with the White Sox includes Anthony Swarzak, Joakim Soria, Xavier Cedeño, Matt Albers, Junior Guerra, Dan Jennings, Boone Logan, Jake Petricka, Juan Mariñez, Carlos Torres. There may be more, but you get the idea.

 

Well, if that’s the case, this ones gonna cost by far the most, prospect wise.

[Eye Black]

Well, if that’s the case, this ones gonna cost by far the most, prospect wise.

I think Dubon and another player closer to the backend of the Brewers top 30 prospects list would get it done. Something like Dubon and Je’Von Ward.

[Brew crew 92]

Well, if that’s the case, this ones gonna cost by far the most, prospect wise.

I think Dubon and another player closer to the backend of the Brewers top 30 prospects list would get it done. Something like Dubon and Je’Von Ward.

 

If that’s the approximate cost, then yes, sign me up for the trade. We’d also have the option to keep him next year as well. I thought, because he’s not a rental, and with his pedigree, plus him having arguably his best year, his cost would be higher.

[Yellin4Yelich]

Ken Giles is having a great season. There's reports that he's had a total attitude adjustment this year which has been one of the biggest knocks on him and probably was impacting his performance in past years. He would be my top choice if we were to splurge on a high end reliever at the deadline. But at the same time, probably a huge price tag.

 

1.29 ERA, 1.036 WHIP, 15.8 K/9

1.03 FIP, xFIP 2.09

[Brew crew 92]

Jake Diekman would also be a good get. Imo, a high K lefty, would help with match-ups vs teams like the dodgers, Cubbies, Braves. I think the cost would be more than reasonable. Would protect us somewhat from a Claudio slump, and from potentially calling up Hart again. Also adding 2 pen arms might free the crew to start Burnes again.

[JosephC]

I really like Sam Dyson. Has been a real solid reliever over the last five seasons outside of one terrible stretch at the beginning of 2017. Ground-baller who seems like he'd be a good Miller Park fit. Doesn't make so much money that the Brewers can't afford him but enough that will likely keep the asking price down.

[JosephC]

I'm taking Sean Doolittle off the list. The Nationals have been very sell-adverse. Last year they were 49-51 on July 24 and things were looking extremely bleak, and it still took them until the end of August to trade off Gonzalez to Milwaukee. Now that they've worked themselves to 2 games over .500, I don't see them as selling off any pieces.

[bill hAll Star]

I'm taking Sean Doolittle off the list. The Nationals have been very sell-adverse. Last year they were 49-51 on July 24 and things were looking extremely bleak, and it still took them until the end of August to trade off Gonzalez to Milwaukee. Now that they've worked themselves to 2 games over .500, I don't see them as selling off any pieces.

 

I don't know if it's been bad luck or bad management, but I wouldn't sell if I was the Nats, either. They have one of the better rosters in the NL on paper. Last year their bullpen destroyed them and this year it's not much better, but given a healthy team I'd stick with it. They at least are in WC contention and might catch the Braves soon.

[Fear The Chorizo]

This is outside the box and probably unrealistic given that the Mets just dealt for him, but what about Edwin Diaz? He's having a bad year for the Mets, but if the price is ok I'd like to take a shot at adding him to the back end of the Brewers' pen. Easy to forget how good he was for the Mariners last season, and he doesn't reach free agency until after the 2022 season.

 

Wonder if the Mets and Brewers line up as trading partners - a Wheeler/Diaz package is pretty intriguing to me as it would give the Brewers a dependable starter that could get on a dominant roll as he approaches free agency and a controllable late inning reliever with closing experience.

[brewmann04]

They can move Ray at this point for the right guy.

[JosephC]

Cam Bedrosian is an interesting guy if the Angels would be open to trading him.

 

Since the beginning of 2016:

190 IP, 3.08 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 1.23 WHIP, 0.8 HR/9, 3.5 BB/9, 9.8 K/9

 

He's been really helped by a ridiculously low .225 BABIP number this season, but even after making the adjustment he is still been a 3.31 FIP, 3.93 xFIP pitcher so far this season. GB% of 53.3% ranks 41st out of 402 pitchers who has thrown 20+ innings this season, so he might be a decent fit for Miller Park.

 

Looks like he was mostly a 6th/7th inning guy but this year has 34 seventh inning outs and 39 eighth inning outs.

 

He's having a career year WAR-wise. Average bWAR/fWAR since 2016:

2016 = 1.15

2017 = 0.15

2018 = 0.30

2019 = 0.75 (pro-rates to 1.5 over a full season)

So take the full year number and the average season bWAR/fWAR over the last four years would only be 0.78 WAR per season.

 

Under team control for 2.5 years. Was a Super Two so he's already in year #2 of arbitration, but only makes 1.75 million this season.

 

Probably would be considered good for about 2.2 wins over the next 2.5 seasons. 2.2 * 9 = 19.8 million minus 7.5 million in earnings results in a surplus value of 12.3 million but there is no way the Angels would get that or likely even ask for that as he's a decent, but not special middle reliever. The BaseballTradeValue site only has him as being worth 0.1, which seems to be a ridiculously low number to me. 5-6 million dollars in surplus value seems like a reasonable number for someone like Bedrosian, and I'd be interested in him at that price.

[Roderick]

This is outside the box and probably unrealistic given that the Mets just dealt for him, but what about Edwin Diaz? He's having a bad year for the Mets, but if the price is ok I'd like to take a shot at adding him to the back end of the Brewers' pen. Easy to forget how good he was for the Mariners last season, and he doesn't reach free agency until after the 2022 season.

 

Wonder if the Mets and Brewers line up as trading partners - a Wheeler/Diaz package is pretty intriguing to me as it would give the Brewers a dependable starter that could get on a dominant roll as he approaches free agency and a controllable late inning reliever with closing experience.

 

Interesting. But, I think the Brewers will first look to trade for a good starting pitcher that has a year and a half left. Unless it is someone like Gio last year that just isn't going to cost alot period.

 

2019 and 2020 seem to be the window and that pitcher would replace Chacin for 2020. I would plan on trading Yelich going in 2021, like Arizona did with Goldy.

[adambr2]

Any chance the Mets sell low on Edwin Diaz? They aren't going anywhere.

 

He's a pretty extreme rebound candidate, and controllable.

[JosephC]

Mets gave up a considerable amount in the Diaz trade. I would guess the asking price on him would be extremely high. The ERA and hard hit rates are ugly, but his K/BB ratio is still really good and he currently owns a 2.87 xFIP. There has been no significant loss in fastball velocity. I think there would be a ton of interest in him if he hit the market.

[Eye Black]

Any chance the Mets sell low on Edwin Diaz? They aren't going anywhere.

If he played for any other organization I would say the chances are slim to none (literally any of the other 29 orgs), but I wouldn’t put anything past the Mets at this point.

[JosephC]

Taking the numbers from 2017, 2018 and pro-rating 2019 to a full season, and Edwin Diaz only comes out as a 1.4 bWAR/fWAR player. That number is probably artificially pushed down by the pitiful -0.4 bWAR he's been credited with so far this year. With 3.5 years on control left, I'd put his surplus value at about 28 million assuming he's a 1.4 WAR per season player over the remainder of those years of team control. I just checked the baseballtradevalue site, and they still have him at 55.5 million in surplus value, which probably was a pretty reasonable number at the beginning of the season.

 

Based on that, I'd think the lowest the Mets would go would probably be in the 30 million range, which when looking at the Brewer's system would equal something like Turang + Ashby + Nottingham. Way too rich for me.

[And That]

Turang or Ashby are by themselves worth at least $26MM in surplus value each, Turang arguably quite a bit more given the recently improved scouting coming out on him. I wouldn't trade Ashby for Diaz, either, given that he'll be in AA by this time next year.

 

Dubon and Supak gets to about $35MM in surplus value for me. Dunno if that gets it done for Diaz or not, but I wouldn't be interested in getting into a bidding war for the guy.

[wntrtxn21]

Turang or Ashby are by themselves worth at least $26MM in surplus value each, Turang arguably quite a bit more given the recently improved scouting coming out on him. I wouldn't trade Ashby for Diaz, either, given that he'll be in AA by this time next year.

 

Dubon and Supak gets to about $35MM in surplus value for me. Dunno if that gets it done for Diaz or not, but I wouldn't be interested in getting into a bidding war for the guy.

 

Whose guide are you using to get a surplus value for Turang, Ashby, Dubon, and Supak. The highest value for Turang I can find is 16.6.

[nate82]

Turang or Ashby are by themselves worth at least $26MM in surplus value each, Turang arguably quite a bit more given the recently improved scouting coming out on him. I wouldn't trade Ashby for Diaz, either, given that he'll be in AA by this time next year.

 

Dubon and Supak gets to about $35MM in surplus value for me. Dunno if that gets it done for Diaz or not, but I wouldn't be interested in getting into a bidding war for the guy.

 

Whose guide are you using to get a surplus value for Turang, Ashby, Dubon, and Supak. The highest value for Turang I can find is 16.6.

 

Not going to speak for And That but he is using OFP.

 

I believe Turang's OFP has probably risen since the beginning of the year I am guessing that Turang is closer to a 60-65 graded prospect now and Ashby closer to 55-60 rating. That puts Ashby at a solid #3 starter and Turang as a regular or an all star capable player. This would increase their value higher.

[And That]

Yah, Turang has moved from a 50 OFP to more of a 55 OFP. At 50 OFP, he’s worth $26MM by Driveline’s research. At 55, it’s $42MM. FanGraphs gave Turang a 45 at the beginning of the year but it’s been a 50 or 55 from everyone else, with more recent data showing 55s.

 

I use OFP instead of prospect list rankings for value basis because a)there’s better research behind the OFP tie-out to $/WAR, b)OFP is more stable across various sources, c)rankings compare players to other players while OFP compares players to a performance baseline (WAR), and d)it’s closer approximation of the data front offices are using (i.e. they aren’t pulling out top 100 rankings when valuing guys).

 

Here are the 2019 Driveline WAR valuations:

[JosephC]

For a pitching prospect to carry 26 million dollars in surplus value, he'd have to rate at around #60 on the top 100 prospects list on my board, and I haven't seen Ashby anywhere in that neighborhood on any list. We'll see what the mid-season updates look like about a month from now. I'll stick with my guess of Ashby being worth about 5.5 million dollars in prospect surplus value to an average MLB team....and if I have under-estimated that value, I'd still guess that his prospect surplus value would top out at about 10.6 million at this time.