Baseball Trade Values website

[RWeeksFan23]

Here are my prospect surplus value for Brewer prospects (Houser not eligible for this list). Trade value website values are in () just for easy comparison.

 

1. Keston Hiura = 78.7 (81.8)

2. Brice Turang = 20.9 (16.6)

3. Corey Ray = 15.1 (11)

4. Tristen Lutz = 10.1 (17.4)

5. Zack Brown = 7.5 (3.2)

6. Mauricio Dubon = 7.4 (5.8)

7. Aaron Ashby = 5.5 (2.6)

8. Mario Feliciano = 5.5 (3.5)

9. Joe Gray = 5.5 (4.7)

10. Trent Grisham = 5.5 (2.2)

11. Payton Henry = 5.5 (3.6)

12. Trey Supak = 5.5 (1.6)

13. Micah Bello = 3.85 (1.7)

14. Lucas Erceg = 3.85 (3.5)

15. Jacob Nottingham = 3.85 (3.0)

16. Drew Rasmussen = 3.85 (0.8)

17. Troy Stokes Jr. = 3.85 (2.3)

18. Braden Webb = 3.85 (0.6)

Everyone else = 2.2

 

I didn't include them on the list because they are not yet eligible to be traded. But I'd initially put Ethan Small's prospect surplus value at 5.5 million and Antoine Kelly's prospect surplus value at 3.85 million.

You think Corey Ray is almost three times as valuable as Trent Grisham?

[Oxy]

Here are my prospect surplus value for Brewer prospects (Houser not eligible for this list). Trade value website values are in () just for easy comparison.

 

1. Keston Hiura = 78.7 (81.8)

2. Brice Turang = 20.9 (16.6)

3. Corey Ray = 15.1 (11)

4. Tristen Lutz = 10.1 (17.4)

5. Zack Brown = 7.5 (3.2)

6. Mauricio Dubon = 7.4 (5.8)

7. Aaron Ashby = 5.5 (2.6)

8. Mario Feliciano = 5.5 (3.5)

9. Joe Gray = 5.5 (4.7)

10. Trent Grisham = 5.5 (2.2)

11. Payton Henry = 5.5 (3.6)

12. Trey Supak = 5.5 (1.6)

13. Micah Bello = 3.85 (1.7)

14. Lucas Erceg = 3.85 (3.5)

15. Jacob Nottingham = 3.85 (3.0)

16. Drew Rasmussen = 3.85 (0.8)

17. Troy Stokes Jr. = 3.85 (2.3)

18. Braden Webb = 3.85 (0.6)

Everyone else = 2.2

 

I didn't include them on the list because they are not yet eligible to be traded. But I'd initially put Ethan Small's prospect surplus value at 5.5 million and Antoine Kelly's prospect surplus value at 3.85 million.

You think Corey Ray is almost three times as valuable as Trent Grisham?

 

 

It's amazing how fast the "value" of a prospect can change.

[JosephC]

Here are my prospect surplus value for Brewer prospects (Houser not eligible for this list). Trade value website values are in () just for easy comparison.

 

1. Keston Hiura = 78.7 (81.8)

2. Brice Turang = 20.9 (16.6)

3. Corey Ray = 15.1 (11)

4. Tristen Lutz = 10.1 (17.4)

5. Zack Brown = 7.5 (3.2)

6. Mauricio Dubon = 7.4 (5.8)

7. Aaron Ashby = 5.5 (2.6)

8. Mario Feliciano = 5.5 (3.5)

9. Joe Gray = 5.5 (4.7)

10. Trent Grisham = 5.5 (2.2)

11. Payton Henry = 5.5 (3.6)

12. Trey Supak = 5.5 (1.6)

13. Micah Bello = 3.85 (1.7)

14. Lucas Erceg = 3.85 (3.5)

15. Jacob Nottingham = 3.85 (3.0)

16. Drew Rasmussen = 3.85 (0.8)

17. Troy Stokes Jr. = 3.85 (2.3)

18. Braden Webb = 3.85 (0.6)

Everyone else = 2.2

 

I didn't include them on the list because they are not yet eligible to be traded. But I'd initially put Ethan Small's prospect surplus value at 5.5 million and Antoine Kelly's prospect surplus value at 3.85 million.

You think Corey Ray is almost three times as valuable as Trent Grisham?

 

The surplus values I assign are based on various top prospect lists. Generally I won't elevated players above "role-player prospect" status until they establish themselves as "top 10 organizational type prospects"....which in the Brewer's case would probably be more along the lines of a top 8 prospect since they have a pretty weak system. At the time the prospect lists are updated, and if Grisham moves up as expected, then his surplus value will be adjusted up.

[Brew crew 92]

Here are my prospect surplus value for Brewer prospects (Houser not eligible for this list). Trade value website values are in () just for easy comparison.

 

1. Keston Hiura = 78.7 (81.8)

2. Brice Turang = 20.9 (16.6)

3. Corey Ray = 15.1 (11)

4. Tristen Lutz = 10.1 (17.4)

5. Zack Brown = 7.5 (3.2)

6. Mauricio Dubon = 7.4 (5.8)

7. Aaron Ashby = 5.5 (2.6)

8. Mario Feliciano = 5.5 (3.5)

9. Joe Gray = 5.5 (4.7)

10. Trent Grisham = 5.5 (2.2)

11. Payton Henry = 5.5 (3.6)

12. Trey Supak = 5.5 (1.6)

13. Micah Bello = 3.85 (1.7)

14. Lucas Erceg = 3.85 (3.5)

15. Jacob Nottingham = 3.85 (3.0)

16. Drew Rasmussen = 3.85 (0.8)

17. Troy Stokes Jr. = 3.85 (2.3)

18. Braden Webb = 3.85 (0.6)

Everyone else = 2.2

 

I didn't include them on the list because they are not yet eligible to be traded. But I'd initially put Ethan Small's prospect surplus value at 5.5 million and Antoine Kelly's prospect surplus value at 3.85 million.

You think Corey Ray is almost three times as valuable as Trent Grisham?

 

The surplus values I assign are based on various top prospect lists. Generally I won't elevated players above "role-player prospect" status until they establish themselves as "top 10 organizational type prospects"....which in the Brewer's case would probably be more along the lines of a top 8 prospect since they have a pretty weak system. At the time the prospect lists are updated, and if Grisham moves up as expected, then his surplus value will be adjusted up.

 

The problem with this site is it’s not close to being accurate, how could it be, without constant updates. The brewer list is a good example. But ultimately the only assessment site that matters is the front office.

[JosephC]

brewerfan surplus value estimates:

 

Drew Rasmussen on April 11, 2019 = 3 million

Drew Rasmussen on May 4, 2019 = 100 million

Drew Rasmussen on July 3, 2109 = 3 million

 

Can't deny that constant updates would be much more accurate!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

brewerfan surplus value estimates:

 

Drew Rasmussen on April 11, 2019 = 3 million

Drew Rasmussen on May 4, 2019 = 100 million

Drew Rasmussen on July 3, 2109 = 3 million

 

Can't deny that constant updates would be much more accurate!

 

I just spit coffee all over my keyboard ... so thanks for that

[Brew crew 92]

brewerfan surplus value estimates:

 

Drew Rasmussen on April 11, 2019 = 3 million

Drew Rasmussen on May 4, 2019 = 100 million

Drew Rasmussen on July 3, 2109 = 3 million

 

Can't deny that constant updates would be much more accurate!

 

How bout making changes only when warranted, based upon real time monitoring of all the players. Another words, working a little harder at that site to be more accurate.

 

Serious question > how do you think a front office would value Rasmussen right now?

 

Grisham right now?

[nate82]

brewerfan surplus value estimates:

 

Drew Rasmussen on April 11, 2019 = 3 million

Drew Rasmussen on May 4, 2019 = 100 million

Drew Rasmussen on July 3, 2109 = 3 million

 

Can't deny that constant updates would be much more accurate!

 

How bout making changes only when warranted, based upon real time monitoring of all the players. Another words, working a little harder at that site to be more accurate.

 

Serious question > how do you think a front office would value Rasmussen right now?

 

Grisham right now?

 

That is near impossible to keep updated.

 

I don't believe a teams valuation of either player has changed all that much. Fans tend to over value and under value players based on recent success or failure.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

brewerfan surplus value estimates:

 

Drew Rasmussen on April 11, 2019 = 3 million

Drew Rasmussen on May 4, 2019 = 100 million

Drew Rasmussen on July 3, 2109 = 3 million

 

Can't deny that constant updates would be much more accurate!

 

How bout making changes only when warranted, based upon real time monitoring of all the players. Another words, working a little harder at that site to be more accurate.

 

Serious question > how do you think a front office would value Rasmussen right now?

 

Grisham right now?

 

That is near impossible to keep updated.

 

I don't believe a teams valuation of either player has changed all that much. Fans tend to over value and under value players based on recent success or failure.

 

I agree, especially for those players who are already known as high-end prospects. A down month or even down season isn't going to hugely effect their trade value. Of course, it does change the optics of the trade in the eyes of fans, but I doubt that makes little to any difference. A team dealing for Ray is going to look at his upside, while a team looking at Grisham is likely going to temper expectations. Every team is going to want a package of prospects that are currently playing well, but prospects currently scuffling don't automatically lose their prospect value.

[Brew crew 92]

Scouts that have been watching Grisham since spring training are going to grade him way way way higher than prospect lists or especially this site. Same with Rasmussen,imo.

 

Looking over the brewer list, your composite valuations are obviously more accurate than the sites, and if they are that far off on just about every brewer valuation, then there gonna be off on all teams players. Am I wrong here?

[Eye Black]

JosephC - Hilarious. I've been guilty of buying into the sudden prospect helium more times than I would like to admit. As nate82 mentioned, I am certain front offices are much better at taking the long-view (and less game results based) when it comes to prospect valuation. As is often said, player development is not a linear path.

 

Brew crew 92 - If you don't believe the site's valuations are very accurate that is fine, and I think you have expressed that in multiple posts now so everyone should have a pretty good sense of where you stand on it. Obviously the values given to players are never going to be 100% accurate and will even carry significant variance from each organization's internal player scouting evaluations. I don't think the website is making claims they've created some type of full-proof blanket system that can't be argued or adjusted. It should be used more as a guide to get a general sense of player's ballpark value. In many cases factors beyond just straight value will enter the equation (i.e. organizational needs; roster construction; a team's competitive cycle; etc).

 

If you want to criticize their product I would encourage you to gain an understanding of the methodology and what they are actually attempting to accomplish. A good start would be to go back and listen to the podcast that was linked in the initial post. They are updating the values of MLB players daily. I don't know how often they are updating prospect values, but I can certainly understand the difficulties that would present. As others mentioned, front offices aren't typically going to put much stock in a couple of months of counting stats, either. There is also always going to be a wide variance of scouting opinions on prospects, so that will certainly remain a challenge for them. That being said, I don't think their current values are as wild as you are making them out to be.

 

Teams have much better information than what is publicly available, so the website will never be perfect. What it will hopefully provide is some sense of whether a potential trade is within the realm of possibility or or not from a value standpoint. As they discussed on the podcast, one of the true tests will be reviewing their numbers as actual trades occur. That will present an opportunity to going back and view how close or far off they were from matching up in estimated value. As trades occur this month I will take a look at what the website had the various players valued at and post the comparison in this thread.

[Brew crew 92]

JosephC - Hilarious. I've been guilty of buying into the sudden prospect helium more times than I would like to admit. As nate82 mentioned, I am certain front offices are much better at taking the long-view (and less game results based) when it comes to prospect valuation. As is often said, player development is not a linear path.

 

Brew crew 92 - If you don't believe the site's valuations are very accurate that is fine, and I think you have expressed that in multiple posts now so everyone should have a pretty good sense of where you stand on it. Obviously the values given to players are never going to be 100% accurate and will even carry significant variance from each organization's internal player scouting evaluations. I don't think the website is making claims they've created some type of full-proof blanket system that can't be argued or adjusted. It should be used more as a guide to get a general sense of player's ballpark value. In many cases factors beyond just straight value will enter the equation (i.e. organizational needs; roster construction; a team's competitive cycle; etc).

 

If you want to criticize their product I would encourage you to gain an understanding of the methodology and what they are actually attempting to accomplish. A good start would be to go back and listen to the podcast that was linked in the initial post. They are updating the values of MLB players daily. I don't know how often they are updating prospect values, but I can certainly understand the difficulties that would present. As others mentioned, front offices aren't typically going to put much stock in a couple of months of counting stats, either. There is also always going to be a wide variance of scouting opinions on prospects, so that will certainly remain a challenge for them. That being said, I don't think their current values are as wild as you are making them out to be.

 

Teams have much better information than what is publicly available, so the website will never be perfect. What it will hopefully provide is some sense of whether a potential trade is within the realm of possibility or or not from a value standpoint. As they discussed on the podcast, one of the true tests will be reviewing their numbers as actual trades occur. That will present an opportunity to going back and view how close or far off they were from matching up in estimated value. As trades occur this month I will take a look at what the website had the various players valued at and post the comparison in this thread.

 

Thank you for that explanation, and for the comparisons ahead.

[LincolnDD]

I've had a lot of fun playing around with this site over the last week, but some of the values, even understanding how they landed there, seem a little off. For example, I've noticed a lot of Atlanta proposals (presumably made by Atlanta fans) are built around Ender Inciarte (18.5) and Lius Gohara (13.8, despite being out the entire season with a shoulder injury). Fun tool, but still requires some common sense!

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-10857/

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-10854/

[Eye Black]

Fun tool, but still requires some common sense!

Completely agree. It is fun to use and seemingly close-ish on a lot of player values, but occasionally they don’t pass the “smell test”. It is probably best used as a general guide in constructing a trade idea, but ultimately teams needs, motivations, and own internal player evaluations need to matchup with one another for a trade to actually happen.

[Eye Black]

The Rays and Rangers just completed a one-for-one trade...

 

The Rays traded away INF/OF Nick Solak who was the #93 overall ranked prospect according to FanGraphs and in return received right-handed relief pitcher Peter Fairbanks from the Rangers.

 

The value attributed to each on the Baseball Trade Value site is as follows...

 

2B Nick Solak - 6.4

 

RHRP Peter Fairbanks - 5.7

 

So fairly close value according to the website.

[Oxy]

Can anybody give me a comp for Peter Fairbanks? Devin Williams? Solak was one of many guys blocked in TBs system. They aren't done trading. Grandal and Moose for Honeywell and Nate Lowe?

[wntrtxn21]

Can anybody give me a comp for Peter Fairbanks? Devin Williams? Solak was one of many guys blocked in TBs system. They aren't done trading. Grandal and Moose for Honeywell and Nate Lowe?

 

Isn't Honeywell hurt for the second time? Anyways, no deal. You are giving up on the season for a 1B and an injured pitcher.

[Eye Black]

The founder of the Baseball Trade Values site, John Bitzer, has joined our forum to answer additional questions regarding his site in this location, Baseball Trade Values Q&A Thread.