Baseball Trade Values website

[Eye Black]

For anyone fascinated by player trade values or creating hypothetical trade offers there is now the perfect website:

 

BaseballTradeValues.com

 

Let me start by saying... THIS. IS. AWESOME. It values all of the players in the majors as well as top and mid-tier prospects. You can create whatever simulated trades you would like and see where they fall in terms of fair value.

 

The founder of the site, John Bitzer, appeared on the Effectively Wild Podcast yesterday.

 

The site has an infinite combination of trades you can propose. If you create an account you can post your trade proposals to their site. I don’t think it’s perfect in terms of the values given to prospects, but it is much closer to accurate than anything I have come across before. It just recently launched, and I have a feeling it will continue to get more and more accurate with time.

 

Here is a screenshot of proposals from the site (Note: The below proposals aren’t all great, but you get the idea)...

 

 

 

If you listen to the podcast linked above (highly recommended) John explains that it limits you from trading for a superstar without offering at least one player that is around 40%+ of the percentage of that star back in trade (so you can just piece together a dozen guys without much value to make a trade happen). It also has some players with negative trade value (i.e. Braun), and you can exchange money in deals to help cover salaries and make them more realistic.

 

Another thing that was interesting from the podcast is he explained how the Santana/Gamel trade forced him to tweak his model. He mentioned that it initially looked like a one-sided trade for the Mariners, but that after the trade Stearns admitted Santana being out of options hurt his value. John went back and adjusted his model by devaluing all players that couldn’t be optioned to reflect the difference.

 

I have been down a rabbit hole using the site since I learned about it yesterday, hope you enjoy it as well! If you create an interesting proposal via the site feel free to share it in this thread. General feedback on the site is welcome also. Again, I don’t think the values are perfect, but most seem in the right ballpark and I am sure the site will continue to improve over time as it is adjusted with future player valuation and surplus value indicators such as real trades and free agent signings.

[KeithStone53151]

This thing doesn't factor in the market, I also think one thing people tend not to factor in to trades is premium talent. Is a 5 WAR player only twice as valuable as a 2.5 WAR player? No, he's way way more than that. All that said, this is very well done and has been fun to putz with.

 

My most recent trade was Will Smith and Sam Dyson for Zack Brown, Peyton Henry, and Troy Stokes. Came out to 8.2 value vs 9.1 value...so we're giving up slightly more value than the Giants...but I think I'd make that trade. If it really ended up being lopsided in reality, they could send us a bit of cash.

[nate82]

I did this:

 

Nationals get:

Burnes, Ray and Brown

 

Brewers get:

Strasburg

 

Value wise per that site is the Brewers giving up more but it is close.

[brewerfan82]

 

[sarcasm]Done![/sarcasm]

[clancyphile]

Mine:

 

Brewers get (27.5):

RHRP Greene

3B Paredes

 

Tigers get (26.3):

1B Aguilar

3B Erceg

C Nottingham

$2 million cash

[Oxy]

I generally highly dislike magic boxes that you throw names into and it spits out numbers back at you...gives me the heeby jeebies.

[MadThinker88]

Thanks for sharing..

[Smichaelis9]

Here’s what I came up with for Stroman and Giles. I’m not sure I believe the Jays would do this (and as a huge Lutz supporter it would be tough for me) but I do think it could be somewhat close to what a deal might look like with a better third piece than Abreu included.

[JosephC]

I just love that this simulator has Sam Dyson as a negative value player. Hopefully the Giants and the entire league outside of the Brewers feel the same way. Would love to see Milwaukee land him for one long-shot fringe prospect.

[Eye Black]

The site founder said they are working on updating some of values before the trade deadline, and I noticed some players values did change just yesterday.

 

One trade value scenario I thought seemed very accurate was Giants LHRP Will Smith (9.3) for Mauricio Dubon (5.8) and Mario Feliciano (3.5). Both sides came out to 9.30 in total value. I thought that was a good indication of what a Will Smith trade might look like especially considering he will be in high demand this deadline. The main return piece being a good, but non-100 type prospect and the second piece being a pre-breakout prospect with high upside. That package would sting a lot, and I don’t think I would actually do it from the Brewers standpoint, but it seems like fair value. One variation that may be easier to stomach from the Brewers point of view would be swapping Feliciano with the similarly valued Lucas Erceg.

[JosephC]

Just for kicks, I went through and ranked the Brewer prospects according to their values.

 

1. Keston Hiura = 81.8

2. Tristen Lutz = 17.4

3. Brice Turang = 16.6

4. Corey Ray = 11

5. Mauricio Dubon = 5.8

6. Joe Gray = 4.7

7. Payton Henry = 3.6

8. Lucas Erceg = 3.5

9. Mario Feliciano = 3.5

10. Zack Brown = 3.2

11. Jacob Nottingham = 3.0

12. Aaron Ashby = 2.6

13. Carlos Rodriguez = 2.5

14. Pablo Abreu = 2.3

15. Troy Stokes Jr. = 2.3

16. Trent Grisham = 2.2

17. Korry Howell = 2.1

18. Larry Ernesto = 2.1

19. Eduardo Garcia = 2.1

20. Eduarqui Fernandez = 2.0

21. Tyrone Taylor = 1.8

22. Micah Bello = 1.7

23. Trey Supak = 1.6

24. Antonio Pinero = 1.4

25. Je'Von Ward = 1.4

26. Daniel Castillo = 1.3

27. Yeison Coca = 1.3

28. Clayton Andrews = 1.0

29. Adrian Houser = 1.0

30. Caden Lemons = 1.0

[Eye Black]

Thanks for taking the time to put the list together JosephC. First impressions are that Lutz, Ray, and Gray might be a little overvalued. I also think Feliciano will be valued higher among other teams than what is currently listed.

[Brew crew 92]

Houser is a funny one, what a stupid list.

[Eye Black]

Houser is a funny one, what a stupid list.

Houser should probably be higher, but no team is giving up great value for a 26 year old right-hander that’s still unproven and until very recently had a likely ceiling of no better than a middle inning reliever.

 

The list is actually pretty good overall in terms of the way teams would value the players listed above.

[trwi7]

Houser is a funny one, what a stupid list.

 

15th ace, amirite?

[OnTheBlack]

Houser is a funny one, what a stupid list.

 

15th ace, amirite?

 

 

Plus...we're going to trade and sign another 3 or 4.

 

So we're going to have to be shuffling aces from the big to the minors next year!

[Brew crew 92]

Houser is a funny one, what a stupid list.

 

15th ace, amirite?

 

That might be an exaggeration.

 

Time will tell.

[Brew crew 92]

Houser is a funny one, what a stupid list.

 

15th ace, amirite?

 

 

Plus...we're going to trade and sign another 3 or 4.

 

So we're going to have to be shuffling aces from the big to the minors next year!

 

We have one budding Ace in Woodruff, another that should get there at some point moving forward in Burnes, another that could be if they let him start in Rasmussen, I’d stop there, so one ace, maybe 2 more down the road, but I’m not waiting, I’d like to trade for one and sign one, so Woodruff could be my #3 next year. And Houser my #4, who, would be an awfully strong 4, with his ridiculous stuff.

[Brew crew 92]

Houser is a funny one, what a stupid list.

Houser should probably be higher, but no team is giving up great value for a 26 year old right-hander that’s still unproven and until very recently had a likely ceiling of no better than a middle inning reliever.

 

The list is actually pretty good overall in terms of the way teams would value the players listed above.

 

Ok, I’ll take your word for it since I’m too lazy to really study it and you obviously have, But the brewer values leave a lot to be desired, imo.

[PeaveyFury]

Here’s what I came up with for Stroman and Giles. I’m not sure I believe the Jays would do this (and as a huge Lutz supporter it would be tough for me) but I do think it could be somewhat close to what a deal might look like with a better third piece than Abreu included.

 

I do this trade tomorrow, FWIW.

[adambr2]

I'd do that in a second as well. I'd have to think the Jay's wouldn't, despite the valuations lining up.

 

Stroman and Giles would be a huge get and I'd be willing to include Turang in a deal to land those two.

[Smichaelis9]

I'd do that in a second as well. I'd have to think the Jay's wouldn't, despite the valuations lining up.

 

Stroman and Giles would be a huge get and I'd be willing to include Turang in a deal to land those two.

Yeah, I probably should’ve clarified the Lutz comment. I would pull the trigger on that immediately as well, it’d sting a bit for me to see Lutz go but it certainly wouldn’t deter me from making the trade. I would also be willing to include Turang if that’s what it took. Don’t think the fan base as a whole would be thrilled, but you have to give to get!

[JosephC]

Here are my prospect surplus value for Brewer prospects (Houser not eligible for this list). Trade value website values are in () just for easy comparison.

 

1. Keston Hiura = 78.7 (81.8)

2. Brice Turang = 20.9 (16.6)

3. Corey Ray = 15.1 (11)

4. Tristen Lutz = 10.1 (17.4)

5. Zack Brown = 7.5 (3.2)

6. Mauricio Dubon = 7.4 (5.8)

7. Aaron Ashby = 5.5 (2.6)

8. Mario Feliciano = 5.5 (3.5)

9. Joe Gray = 5.5 (4.7)

10. Trent Grisham = 5.5 (2.2)

11. Payton Henry = 5.5 (3.6)

12. Trey Supak = 5.5 (1.6)

13. Micah Bello = 3.85 (1.7)

14. Lucas Erceg = 3.85 (3.5)

15. Jacob Nottingham = 3.85 (3.0)

16. Drew Rasmussen = 3.85 (0.8)

17. Troy Stokes Jr. = 3.85 (2.3)

18. Braden Webb = 3.85 (0.6)

Everyone else = 2.2

 

I didn't include them on the list because they are not yet eligible to be traded. But I'd initially put Ethan Small's prospect surplus value at 5.5 million and Antoine Kelly's prospect surplus value at 3.85 million.

[Eye Black]

I didn't include them on the list because they are not yet eligible to be traded. But I'd initially put Ethan Small's prospect surplus value at 5.5 million and Antoine Kelly's prospect surplus value at 3.85 million.

Thanks for sharing your insights JC!

 

One note on the above valuing of the Brewers draft picks is the site has the following entry regarding the Comp A selection the Brewers traded away...

 

 

Breakdown of the Rangers’ return

Although this seems like a minor trade on the surface, we found it notable for two reasons:

First, Alex Claudio was a productive reliever who came with three years of control (albeit at escalating cost for all three arb years).

Second, since this was a cold, 1-1 trade, it signified an opportunity to place a value on all Competitive Round A draft picks. If Claudio’s value = Comp A draft pick value, then all Comp A draft picks should also have around the same value.

 

Based on our methodology, we ended up at $11.3M for Claudio, which squared with several other trades of similar draft picks. Thus:

 

Rangers get: Comp A pick: 11.3

 

Breakdown of the Brewers’ return

The Brewers were all in, after coming an inch away from the 2018 World Series, so trading a draft pick (who would in theory be a long way away from helping the MLB team) for immediate relief help (which they sorely needed) — and one at reasonable salary cost — was an easy decision.

 

Brewers get: Claudio: 11.3

 

So if they value the Comp A selection at 11.3, I would guess they would have Ethan Small valued somewhat closer to that number. I think it’s reasonable to think that recent draft picks would be valued a little higher by teams and most lose value over time as some of the prospect shine wears off. Regarding Claudio specifically, he is now valued at 5.2 on the website, so either they found they were too high on him initially or they adjusted for performance/cost/control.

[JosephC]

Two quick notes regarding my evaluation of Small's prospect surplus value.

 

I had previously evaluated Comp A picks at top ten organizational prospect level and valued the picks at around 11 million in surplus value. But someone on this board (can't remember who), suggested that was a bit high so I went through and looked at comp A picks from the last couple years and in weak systems those picks could wind up at #7/#8 on a team's rankings, but in strong systems those picks could be as low at #16. Average and median numbers were in the #11-#12 range so I reclassified those picks at being worth more around 7 million in surplus value. So normally, a guy at the end of round one should be slightly higher than 7 million in surplus value. But its really hard to make this evaluation because, not only are we talking about getting a player, we are also talking about the size of the draft pool money as well. I would actually think most teams probably have more value associated with the pick than just the player himself.

 

But then ranking has to play in the estimate as well. Brady Singer is a good example. He may have been the 18th pick in the draft, but it was obvious that he would be valued much higher than that even with an average MiLB start. Fast forward one season, and although he was the 18th pick in the draft, he currently sits at #45 on the MLB Pipeline top 100. That's with a 3.14 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 7.5 K/9...nothing wrong with those numbers but nothing eye-popping either. And I'm not anticipating a major drop when the top 100 list is updated, but time will tell on that. Small seemed to sit at #55-#60 on most of the draft ranking lists, and I don't necessarily think the consensus view of the league is that he has "top 30 draft value" just because the Brewers picked him at #28. I think Small fits more solidly in the "role-player prospect" tier of players and have slotted him as such. He hits the minors and tears it up and then up the list he'll go.