Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019

[brewcrewdue80]

I had no clue Bickford was a thing again. Not one IP above A+? Protect him? Yay so he dominated the 2H at the age of 23. Brown at least pitched in AAA. Terribly though. Maybe the team isn't protecting who you think they should because they're prospects, not MLB All-star potentials. Whats our Minors rank currently? 30th? 27th at best? What team is going to stash Erceg when he likely wouldnt be top 15-20 in that teams system? Much less worth playing time in MLB in 2020? Reality check and a good one on Stearns who will add more talent in the rule5 draft vs keeping less.

[MadThinker88]

I had no clue Bickford was a thing again. Not one IP above A+? Protect him? Yay so he dominated the 2H at the age of 23. Brown at least pitched in AAA. Terribly though. Maybe the team isn't protecting who you think they should because they're prospects, not MLB All-star potentials. Whats our Minors rank currently? 30th? 27th at best? What team is going to stash Erceg when he likely wouldnt be top 15-20 in that teams system? Much less worth playing time in MLB in 2020? Reality check and a good one on Stearns who will add more talent in the rule5 draft vs keeping less.

 

I'm all for teams adding talent thru the various methods available.

 

That said, if Stearns is "adding" thru the R5 this December, the chances of Milwaukee being in serious contention for the NL Central flag yet alone a NL title/ World Series appearance take a serious hit..

 

EDIT: "adding" thru the major league portion of the R5 this December,

[PeaveyFury]

I do think they may be active in the minor-league Rule V. Seems like a decent way to take a few chances on guys without giving them the MLB roster spot.

[MadThinker88]

I do think they may be active in the minor-league Rule V. Seems like a decent way to take a few chances on guys without giving them the MLB roster spot.

 

That sounds reasonable. Players taken in the minor league portion do not have a mechanism to return to the original club & do not have to remain on the AAA or AA level (wherever selected)..

 

But we must remember that players not protected on the 40 man roster might be protected the AAA or AA designation lists. Those lower level lists are normally not published for fans to pick thru and debate. We generally won't know who is available in those phases of the draft until a particular player is selected. In fact the only time I saw those lists was a few years ago when a Cubs source published the ChiCubs listings.

[djoctagone]

One thing that I was thinking about this morning, while looking at those four open roster spots, was if the Brewers are considering taking a player in this year's Rule 5 draft.

assuming pitchers are capped at 13, i could see the brewers grabbing a versatile position player with strong defense and speed.

[Outlander]

Was reading a pretty extensive rule 5 article on players available at Lookout landing (Mariners) at https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2019/11/21/20973258/the-ultimate-mariners-2019-rule-5-draft-primer

 

They list Zack Brown as the #1 player available and top 5 as:

 

RHP Zack Brown (MIL)

RHP Jordan Sheffield (LAD)

RHP Sterling Sharp (WAS)

RHP Alec Hansen (CWS)

1B Chris Gittens (NYY)

[JosephC]

I had no clue Bickford was a thing again. Not one IP above A+? Protect him? Yay so he dominated the 2H at the age of 23. Brown at least pitched in AAA. Terribly though. Maybe the team isn't protecting who you think they should because they're prospects, not MLB All-star potentials. Whats our Minors rank currently? 30th? 27th at best? What team is going to stash Erceg when he likely wouldnt be top 15-20 in that teams system? Much less worth playing time in MLB in 2020? Reality check and a good one on Stearns who will add more talent in the rule5 draft vs keeping less.

 

I'm still optimistic on Bickford, but I agree with you. He was red hot but it only covered 26 innings and we are talking about a 24 year old in A ball. I'll wait to see some scouting reports before I get too excited. I think Stearns made the right decision as Bickford is doesn't appear to be big league ready and I'd guess pretty much every organization out there would feel the same way. Sure he could get picked as a Yang/Diaz/Torrens/Cordoba developmental prospect....but I'm guessing if you look league-wide it would be pretty easy to find a whole bunch of prospects that would be more attractive.

 

Brown was terrible in AAA like you said, but if I was another team and had to pick between Brown and Bickford...I would take Brown and it's an easy decision. Yes, terrible last year, but he entered pro ball as a 5th round pick/fringe prospect. He worked his way up to some top 100 mentions, I don't know if the consensus opinion every got that high but it's safe to say that he probably worked himself from fringe to solid top 150 prospect and that was done through nearly 240 innings spread over 2 seasons. So while he was bad last year, there is still a solid track record of 240 innings versus the last 26 for Bickford. I don't think Brown will be picked either, so I think Stearns made the right decision on him too, but if I was in Stearns' chair I would have given it some serious consideration.

[clancyphile]

Looking over Gittens's stats...

 

He may be worth a flyer in the Rule 5...

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=gitten000chr

 

Very good OBP skills, some power...

[Eye Black]

The part I don’t completely understand is Zack Brown still has some asset value, at least I would think so? If he ends up being one of the first players off the board in the Rule 5 draft, then it seems like they would have been better off to have protected him and worked out a trade this offseason in order to move him off their 40-man roster while retaining some value in return for him. I guess they can always work out a trade with the team that selects him in the Rule 5 draft (so the stipulations of returning him to Milwaukee don’t exist), but at that point the Brewers front office won’t have much leverage since they’ll be dealing with a single team. I guess it’s certainly possible (maybe likely?) they already floated him as a trade candidate earlier this offseason and couldn’t find any takers.

 

As an aside, the rosters expanding to 26-players seemingly makes it a lot easier for teams to carry Rule 5 selections on their rosters throughout the season, especially for rebuilding teams taking a chance on a player with high upside.

[wntrtxn21]

The part I don’t completely understand is Zack Brown still has some asset value, at least I would think so? If he ends up being one of the first players off the board in the Rule 5 draft, then it seems like they would have been better off to have protected him and worked out a trade this offseason in order to move him off their 40-man roster while retaining some value in return for him. I guess they can always work out a trade with the team that selects him in the Rule 5 draft (so the stipulations of returning him to Milwaukee don’t exist), but at that point the Brewers front office won’t have much leverage since they’ll be dealing with a single team. I guess it’s certainly possible (maybe likely?) they already floated him as a trade candidate earlier this offseason and couldn’t find any takers.

 

As an aside, the rosters expanding to 26-players seemingly makes it a lot easier for teams to carry Rule 5 selections on their rosters throughout the season, especially for rebuilding teams taking a chance on a player with high upside.

 

IMO the Brewers probably tried to do something with Brown, but got no takers. He was badly overmatched at AAA last year (5.79 ERA - many more hits than IPs - 1.73 WHIP - almost 5 BBs per 9). I don't see any team thinking he would be Rule 5 material. I believe the Brewers left him unprotected because they feel he isn't going anywhere so why waste a spot for him.

[Eye Black]

The part I don’t completely understand is Zack Brown still has some asset value, at least I would think so? If he ends up being one of the first players off the board in the Rule 5 draft, then it seems like they would have been better off to have protected him and worked out a trade this offseason in order to move him off their 40-man roster while retaining some value in return for him. I guess they can always work out a trade with the team that selects him in the Rule 5 draft (so the stipulations of returning him to Milwaukee don’t exist), but at that point the Brewers front office won’t have much leverage since they’ll be dealing with a single team. I guess it’s certainly possible (maybe likely?) they already floated him as a trade candidate earlier this offseason and couldn’t find any takers.

 

As an aside, the rosters expanding to 26-players seemingly makes it a lot easier for teams to carry Rule 5 selections on their rosters throughout the season, especially for rebuilding teams taking a chance on a player with high upside.

 

IMO the Brewers probably tried to do something with Brown, but got no takers. He was badly overmatched at AAA last year (5.79 ERA - many more hits than IPs - 1.73 WHIP - almost 5 BBs per 9). I don't see any team thinking he would be Rule 5 material. I believe the Brewers left him unprotected because they feel he isn't going anywhere so why waste a spot for him.

He obviously didn’t have a stellar campaign, but when put into the context of the overall PCL run environment last season he really wasn’t nearly as bad as we would traditionally think of those numbers.

 

There were 98 pitchers in the PCL that made 10+ starts last year (Zach Brown made 23 starts which was 8th most in the PCL last year), and the average age of those starters was just over 26 years old (average age of all PCL pitchers was 26.7). Brown was 24 years old last season, so still a couple of years below the average age.

 

Below is Zack Brown’s stat line compared to the league average pitching results in the PCL for 2019.

 

League Average (PCL):

5.49 ERA

1.523 WHIP

9.8 H9

1.5 HR9

3.9 BB9

8.9 SO9

 

Zack Brown:

5.79 ERA

1.731 WHIP

10.6 H9

1.2 HR9

4.9 BB9

7.6 SO9

 

So again, he was not good last year, but considering his previous track record as well as the fact he was in a horrendous run environment last year, I will be a little surprised if nobody takes a chance on him in the Rule 5 draft.

[SRB]

Have to agree that leaving Brown unprotected makes no sense. He's absolutely going to get taken, the only question is if he sticks with his new team.

[wntrtxn21]

The part I don’t completely understand is Zack Brown still has some asset value, at least I would think so? If he ends up being one of the first players off the board in the Rule 5 draft, then it seems like they would have been better off to have protected him and worked out a trade this offseason in order to move him off their 40-man roster while retaining some value in return for him. I guess they can always work out a trade with the team that selects him in the Rule 5 draft (so the stipulations of returning him to Milwaukee don’t exist), but at that point the Brewers front office won’t have much leverage since they’ll be dealing with a single team. I guess it’s certainly possible (maybe likely?) they already floated him as a trade candidate earlier this offseason and couldn’t find any takers.

 

As an aside, the rosters expanding to 26-players seemingly makes it a lot easier for teams to carry Rule 5 selections on their rosters throughout the season, especially for rebuilding teams taking a chance on a player with high upside.

 

IMO the Brewers probably tried to do something with Brown, but got no takers. He was badly overmatched at AAA last year (5.79 ERA - many more hits than IPs - 1.73 WHIP - almost 5 BBs per 9). I don't see any team thinking he would be Rule 5 material. I believe the Brewers left him unprotected because they feel he isn't going anywhere so why waste a spot for him.

He obviously didn’t have a stellar campaign, but when put into the context of the overall PCL run environment last season he really wasn’t nearly as bad as we would traditionally think of those numbers.

 

There were 98 pitchers in the PCL that made 10+ starts last year (Zach Brown made 23 starts which was 8th most in the PCL last year), and the average age of those starters was just over 26 years old (average age of all PCL pitchers was 26.7). Brown was 24 years old last season, so still a couple of years below the average age.

 

Below is Zack Brown’s stat line compared to the league average pitching results in the PCL for 2019.

 

League Average (PCL):

5.49 ERA

1.523 WHIP

9.8 H9

1.5 HR9

3.9 BB9

8.9 SO9

 

Zack Brown:

5.79 ERA

1.731 WHIP

10.6 H9

1.2 HR9

4.9 BB9

7.6 SO9

 

So again, he was not good last year, but considering his previous track record as well as the fact he was in a horrendous run environment last year, I will be a little surprised if nobody takes a chance on him in the Rule 5 draft.

 

I can't see how a team would waste a spot on the 26 man roster for the entire year especially if the pitcher limit is 13. Maybe if the expanded roster goes to 14 pitchers.

[Eye Black]

I can't see how a team would waste a spot on the 26 man roster for the entire year especially if the pitcher limit is 13. Maybe if the expanded roster goes to 14 pitchers.

We’re less than three years removed from the Padres taking three players in their early 20’s that had no business being anywhere near a major league roster (Link) and keeping them for an entire year on their 25-man roster. I don’t think it’s far fetched that a rebuilding team in the business of talent acquisition could/would carry a 24 year old that’s already spent an entire season one step from the majors. He could be used as a long reliever in low leverage situations and would have little impact other than eating some meaningless innings.

[LouisEly]

I can't see how a team would waste a spot on the 26 man roster for the entire year especially if the pitcher limit is 13. Maybe if the expanded roster goes to 14 pitchers.

Look at the Orioles' pitching staff last year. He can't be worse than half of those guys.

[CheezWizHed]

Isn't this a very common occurrence to "hide" a pitcher in the BP for the year (and that was with 25-man rosters); especially on the worse teams?

 

I know the Brewers have done it several times.

[SRB]

It's unusual for a team to "hide" a pitcher like the Brewers did with Wei-Chung Wang, who was a Rookie-ball pitcher with no business being on a MLB roster.

 

Brown has pitched an entire season at AAA, he may end up having a mediocre season but I don't think the acquiring team will have to hide him.

[reillymcshane]

It's unusual for a team to "hide" a pitcher like the Brewers did with Wei-Chung Wang, who was a Rookie-ball pitcher with no business being on a MLB roster.

 

Brown has pitched an entire season at AAA, he may end up having a mediocre season but I don't think the acquiring team will have to hide him.

To me, this is why I think someone will nab Brown.

 

He's not an A ball pitcher. He's a 26 year old at AAA. Yes, he sucked last year. But before that, he was an interesting arm. Sure you'd like to give him more time at AAA, but coming into 2019, most people didn't see him that far off of being in the majors.

 

Thus a bad team can take him, tell him he's a reliever and to prepare as such, and give him a bullpen gig in the majors. He was that far off from such a gig a year ago. Work with him, maybe iron out any issues you find (if any), and if he does okay, you're gold. You got an arm for the next half-decade. If not, no big deal. Your team isn't winning anyways. Just return him to Milwaukee. No harm, no foul.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

With all the room on the roster now, I kinda think the Brewers may just be active in this year's Rule 5.

[Outlander]

I tend to agree, maybe not keeping the player but at least taking a look.

[Jaylyn]

I tend to agree, maybe not keeping the player but at least taking a look.

Yep, the one that has my interest is 3B Christian Santana, http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=655996#/career/R/hitting/2019/ALL

I like the upside.

[MadThinker88]

I tend to agree, maybe not keeping the player but at least taking a look.

Yep, the one that has my interest is 3B Christian Santana, http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=655996#/career/R/hitting/2019/ALL

I like the upside.

 

Wow. I thought Oscar Gonzalez (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=gonzal003osc) has a rough time taking walks...

 

BTW - Oscar is also R5 eligible. A rebuilding team like Detroit might have interest in Oscar but I doubt most teams would take the chance.

[SRB]

How about 1B Roberto Ramos (Colorado)? He's done nothing but hit throughout the minor leagues, including last season when he hit .309/.400/.580/.980 with 30 HR and a .406 wOBA at AAA. Prospect evaluators thinks he is a Quad-A player, but heck, we have a black hole at 1B and maybe he's the next Russell Branyan (or, perhaps more aptly, Khris Davis)?

[Jaylyn]

I tend to agree, maybe not keeping the player but at least taking a look.

Yep, the one that has my interest is 3B Christian Santana, http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=655996#/career/R/hitting/2019/ALL

I like the upside.

 

Wow. I thought Oscar Gonzalez (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=gonzal003osc) has a rough time taking walks...

 

BTW - Oscar is also R5 eligible. A rebuilding team like Detroit might have interest in Oscar but I doubt most teams would take the chance.

Let's say they both need a little more plate discipline! And Ramos, sure why not! When when a 1B is signed, gonna need a backup, since I believe my thought of having Braun play first in a soft platoon is more than likely not going to happen!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Sterling Sharp (RHP in the Nats system) would be fun, if only for the name.