Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Was a weird year - the guys you thought were good bets at the beginning of the season had disappointing seasons (Brown, Ray, Webb, Sanchez), and then some guys came out of almost nowhere (Bickford, Hummel, Topa) to force the issue.

 

I don't know how many they'll protect, but I think my pecking order would be:

 

Z. Brown

Bickford

Sanchez

Ray

Hummel

QT-C

Erceg (potential to switch him to the mound)

Webb

 

I could see the Brewers protecting most of them. I could see the Brewers protecting none of them. With only 33 on the roster right now, I think they add four and leave three spots for free agents. Could easily dump D. Guerra or Perdomo to open another roster spot or two for a FA. Need to add two FA SPs and a corner IF, maybe a C.

 

Dark horse is Justin Topa. He was hitting upper 90's last year. I think the Brewers were trying to hide him by not assigning him to the AFL.

 

Ray and Brown are locks in my opinion. I don't see them giving up on Erceg, either, so I think he'll be added. I'd guess Feyereisen as well, as there would be no reason to trade for him if they were just going to leave him unprotected, and he'd be a prime candidate to get picked as a reliever who throws gas and dominated AAA last season. Bickford, Sanchez and Webb are outside possibilities. I can't see protecting Hummel and QT-C

[MVP2110]

I'll guess Brown, Ray, Bickford, Erceg, & Feyereisen

[Outlander]

I know someone mentioned before they though Ray had a .1% chance of being selected, disagree with that but I would put the chances of Erceg being selected at quite below .1%. Not protecting somebody from the 40 man does not mean the Brewers gave up on them. Guys like Max Muncy are left unprotected and called up in the same year.

[JDBrewCrew]

Tom

@Haudricourt

1m

Word is the #Brewers will be adding OF Corey Ray and RHP J.P. Feyereisen to their 40-man roster today, protecting them from Rule 5 draft. Apparently, the only players.

 

 

Adam McCalvy

@AdamMcCalvy

The Brewers will add outfielder Corey Ray (No. 4 on MLB Pipeline's list of Milwaukee's top prospects) and reliever J.P. Feyereisen to the 40-man roster today to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft. We'll see if more are added by the 7 p.m. deadline.

 

Really hope this isn't true.

 

Tom

@Haudricourt

Let's change my earlier tweet to only players we know are being protected SO Far: Word is the #Brewers will be adding OF Corey Ray and RHP J.P. Feyereisen to their 40-man roster today, protecting them from Rule 5 draft.

 

Guess I'll stand down and wait then.

[shanedog19]

Really hoping Bickford also gets protected. His numbers were eye popping once he got healthy this year.

[long ball]

Zack Brown is the only other guy I'd expect to be added, but he had a tough year so who knows if he'd be selected or what the internal evaluation of him is now.

[RollieTime]

I’m hoping they add Nate Griep to the 40. Relief pitcher that throws fastball, changeup, slider with a little bit of a funky hitch in his motion and then explodes at the batter. I think a reliever with deception, 3 pitches, and who has done well at every stop and is now in AAA, deserves to be protected. I don’t see why he couldn’t fit in the back end of the bullpen or one of the first arms brought up on the shuttle this season. Especially making minimum for a number of seasons. We have a hard time developing pitching as it is and with the value of relief pitchers these days, he’s not a guy they should risk losing.

[recte44]

How can you not protect Brown?

 

 

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[KeithStone53151]

How can you not protect Brown?

 

 

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Maybe his stuff simply regressed. Hard to say. Maybe they have big plans for those other 40 man spots. There's still time to protect one or two more players.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

How can you not protect Brown?

 

 

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Maybe his stuff simply regressed. Hard to say. Maybe they have big plans for those other 40 man spots. There's still time to protect one or two more players.

 

They have five open spots remaining. And a few borderline guys already on the 40-man (looking at you, Saladino).

[wntrtxn21]

I’m hoping they add Nate Griep to the 40. Relief pitcher that throws fastball, changeup, slider with a little bit of a funky hitch in his motion and then explodes at the batter. I think a reliever with deception, 3 pitches, and who has done well at every stop and is now in AAA, deserves to be protected. I don’t see why he couldn’t fit in the back end of the bullpen or one of the first arms brought up on the shuttle this season. Especially making minimum for a number of seasons. We have a hard time developing pitching as it is and with the value of relief pitchers these days, he’s not a guy they should risk losing.

 

Griep is already 26 and pitched only an inning at AAA so far. He has control problems allowing 64 walks in only 112 innings pitched the last two years in AA ball. I believe the Brewers are thinking no team will select him because they would have to waste a spot on their MLB roster for the year.

[wntrtxn21]

How can you not protect Brown?

 

 

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Maybe his stuff simply regressed. Hard to say. Maybe they have big plans for those other 40 man spots. There's still time to protect one or two more players.

 

They have five open spots remaining. And a few borderline guys already on the 40-man (looking at you, Saladino).

 

I think Brown was so bad at San Antonio last year (116 IPs/138 hits/65 walks/5 HBP/.298 avg. against) the Brewers believe no team will want to take him and risk keeping him on their MLB roster for the entire year.

[DHonks]

I know someone mentioned before they though Ray had a .1% chance of being selected, disagree with that but I would put the chances of Erceg being selected at quite below .1%. Not protecting somebody from the 40 man does not mean the Brewers gave up on them. Guys like Max Muncy are left unprotected and called up in the same year.

 

that was probably me. I see zero reason anyone would waste a roster spot on a player with one good minor league season. Ray simply hasn't produced. He's under team control for several more seasons, but I can't believe any team would stash a guy in the majors, playing him for 1 automatic out per week. I haven't seen him play, so there's no traditional scouting I've done. But he's looking like a huge bust...like a Jed Bradley.

 

Bickford makes sense to me. He dominated in the 2h.

[markedman5]

No Bickford or Brown

 

[DHonks]

How can you not protect Brown?

 

 

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Maybe his stuff simply regressed. Hard to say. Maybe they have big plans for those other 40 man spots. There's still time to protect one or two more players.

 

They have five open spots remaining. And a few borderline guys already on the 40-man (looking at you, Saladino).

 

4 after the trade this afternoon

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

No Bickford or Brown

 

 

Surprising. But perhaps Brown is a better prospect in fan eyes than in the team's. Still hope he doesn't get taken.

[nate82]

The reason why Brown was left off according to Haudricourt:

 

Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns admitted it was a tough decision to expose Brown to the Rule 5 draft in December but said his poor showing in 2019 at San Antonio (3-7, 5.79 ERA in 25 games, 1.73 WHIP) was the primary reason for doing so.

 

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2019/11/20/brewers-add-corey-ray-j-p-feyereisen-roster-do-not-protect-zack-brown/4243897002/

[reillymcshane]

Won't be surprised if Brown or Bickford gets picked. Especially Brown. A team can take a flier on him, and if he regains some of his 2018 flash, then they can use him in the bullpen. If he sucks, they're out 50k or whatever. No big deal.

[brewmann04]

Bickford the man getting taken but think DS has something brewing.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I'd be less pessimistic over Brown getting chosen if AAA pitching wasn't atrocious as a whole last year. More PCL teams had team ERAs above 6.00 than below 5.00. I wonder if a couple of guys who had abnormally bad years in AAA last year get chosen just to see if it was a fluke related to the offensive explosion across the whole level.

[SeaBass]

It's been awhile since I've heard the rules about what happens when a team's player gets selected in the Rule 5 draft, but if a team selected one of the Brewers' players, doesn't that mean they are able to protect 1 or 2 additional players? If so, that might also be part of the strategy. Say if the Brewers think a team will jump on taking Brown, they protect 2 more guys and in the back of their heads they make this gamble thinking there's a good chance Brown will end up being offered back to them because the claiming team might struggle to keep him on their MLB roster all season.

 

That said, with the roster expansion to 26 players maybe it becomes easier for a team, especially with this being the first season under that rule they may figure they're used to only having a 25 man roster anyway.

[adambr2]

Look, I know prospect rankings aren't perfect, but it speaks volumes about how bad our farm system is when our Pipeline #3 prospect was deemed not worth protecting in the Rule 5 draft. That's almost unheard of.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It's been awhile since I've heard the rules about what happens when a team's player gets selected in the Rule 5 draft, but if a team selected one of the Brewers' players, doesn't that mean they are able to protect 1 or 2 additional players? If so, that might also be part of the strategy. Say if the Brewers think a team will jump on taking Brown, they protect 2 more guys and in the back of their heads they make this gamble thinking there's a good chance Brown will end up being offered back to them because the claiming team might struggle to keep him on their MLB roster all season.

 

That said, with the roster expansion to 26 players maybe it becomes easier for a team, especially with this being the first season under that rule they may figure they're used to only having a 25 man roster anyway.

 

I think you are confusing expansion drafts and the Rule 5 draft. With expansion drafts you can pull a player back after one is selected. Teams don't have that right with the Rule 5, though. All those guys, including Brown, Erceg, Webb, Griep and the rest, are eligible to be taken with no protections.

 

I personally expect at least one Brewer to be taken this year. It's not really a bad problem to have, as having players that other teams covet in the Rule 5 draft is a sign of a system that is getting deeper on talent ... especially talent that is close to making a major league impact.

[SeaBass]

Ah, you're right, that's what was getting fuddled up in my head. Thanks for setting me straight.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Look, I know prospect rankings aren't perfect, but it speaks volumes about how bad our farm system is when our Pipeline #3 prospect was deemed not worth protecting in the Rule 5 draft. That's almost unheard of.

 

And if Brown is not drafted in the Rule 5, it also shows that perhaps these prospect rankings have misjudged him significantly. These rankings are put together by fans and/or journalists, for fans, with pretty scant knowledge of how teams value these players. I guess it wouldn't surprise me if Brown was drafted. It wouldn't surprise me if he wasn't, either.

 

One thing that I was thinking about this morning, while looking at those four open roster spots, was if the Brewers are considering taking a player in this year's Rule 5 draft.