Starting Pitching - 2019 Trade Deadline Edition

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Ivan Nova pitched a gem for the White Sox last night beating the Twins. In his last 2 starts he's allowed one earned run over 15 innings. I predict he'll make his next start in a Brewer uniform.

 

Given all the deals the Brewers and White Sox have done over the years, the Brewers' current need for a starter, and Nova's probable low price, this one makes a ton of sense. I could very easily see this deal going down in the next few days.

[pacopete4]

Nova and Colome would be solid. What’s a good comp for a trade?

[Brewcrewin07]

Wheeler's neutralized ERA concerns me, he is the worst of all the rumored available starters with a 4.79. Minor the best at 2.40

[Brewcrewin07]

With the Pirates obviously in sell mode...I wonder if you could pry Joe Musgrove from them, and what it would take to get him.

[JosephC]

Nova and Colome would be solid. What’s a good comp for a trade?

 

Price on that would probably be very low.

 

Nova is a rental with a 5.23 ERA and a 5.22 FIP with an annual salary of 9.167 million dollars. No question that he's pitched much better lately, but he is still due 3+ million over the remainder of the season. I just don't see there being much interest in him on the market. I'd have him as having a very slight positive surplus value but it wouldn't be unreasonable to think he's actually a negative surplus value player.

 

Colome has a 2.27 ERA but his FIP is 3.88 and his xFIP is 4.65. Pro-rate 2019 out to a full season....his bWAR over the last three season is 0.8, 1.1, 2.7....but his fWAR over the last three seasons is 1.2, 1.0, 0.8. Outside of the 2019 bWAR number, Colome has pretty mediocre value as far as the WAR calcluations go. And bWAR is more of a "run prevention" assessment, and Colome currently sits with a ridiculously low .150 BABIP number and a well below average 9.5 HR/FB% which are two key factors in really inflating the 2.7 bWAR he'd have at the end of this season. But let's just take all the bWAR/fWAR numbers from the last three years and the average is 1.3 WAR. He has one more season of team control after this one and will be arbitration eligible. So let's credit him with 0.5 WAR for the rest of this season and 1.3 WAR for next season...total 1.8 WAR. 2019 salary is 7.325 million (so roughly 2.44 million for the remainder of this season), and let's say he makes 9 million in arbitration next year. So 1.8 WAR times 9 million = 16.2 million - 11.44 million = +4.76 million in surplus value.

 

I wouldn't think the combination of the two would demand anything much over 6 million in surplus value.

 

I'd guess Micah Bello would be about the best prospect they would have to give up in a Colome/Nova deal. Also wouldn't be all that crazy to think that the Brewers might be able to use one of the droppers (Erceg or Stokes) as the main piece and then package two fringe players along with that.

 

So I'd guess something like:

 

Colome/Nova for OF-Micah Bello/RHP-Matt Hardy

 

or

 

Colome/Nova for 3B- Lucas Erceg/RHP-Adam Hill/RHP-Bubba Derby

[wntrtxn21]

Ivan Nova pitched a gem for the White Sox last night beating the Twins. In his last 2 starts he's allowed one earned run over 15 innings. I predict he'll make his next start in a Brewer uniform.

 

Are we talking about the same Ivan Nova with the 5.23 ERA - 5.22 FIP. 150 hits in only 125 IPs. 73 ERs and 1.7 HR per 9. Making over $9.1M and a rental to boot? No thanks!

[Brewcrewin07]

Ivan Nova pitched a gem for the White Sox last night beating the Twins. In his last 2 starts he's allowed one earned run over 15 innings. I predict he'll make his next start in a Brewer uniform.

 

Are we talking about the same Ivan Nova with the 5.23 ERA - 5.22 FIP. 150 hits in only 125 IPs. 73 ERs and 1.7 HR per 9. Making over $9.1M and a rental to boot? No thanks!

 

 

Agreed, I'd just assume put Jimmy Nelson back into the rotation if this is all they can do for Pitching. It would be no different performance wise.

[JosephC]

In Nova's first 9 starts this year he had games where he gave up 7, 6, 9, and 8 earned runs. He's totaled 48 1/3 innings, 46 hits, 19 earned runs, 9 home runs allowed, 11 walks, 30 strikeouts, 3.54 ERA, 1.18 WHIP over his last 8 starts. The high full-season ERA and FIP totals might make him a pretty decent buy low candidate. He was a 4.16 ERA, 4.38 FIP, 1.27 WHIP pitcher from 2016-2018.

[Eye Black]

So if the Mets are all in for 2020 but still willing to shop Syndergaard and/or Diaz I wonder if Knebel is someone they would value as a piece in a potential trade with the Brewers?

[jjgott]

I was looking at AAA stats to see if there were any former MLB'ers who may be toiling away down there and could be had for cheap and man, I guess I should've realized they're down in AAA for a reason.

[Brewcrewin07]

Ken Rosenthal

@Ken_Rosenthal

·

44m

In talks with at least one team on Syndergaard, #Mets only were seeking major-league talent that could help right away, sources tell The Athletic. Team is currently six games out in NL wild card race, trailing five teams.

 

I mean, couldn't the Brewers cobble that together?? Burnes, Peralta etc??

[Brewcrewin07]

Bob Klapisch

@BobKlap

Told trading Syndergaard will be #Mets next move, not Wheeler. Makes sense.

[Eye Black]

Ken Rosenthal

@Ken_Rosenthal

·

44m

In talks with at least one team on Syndergaard, #Mets only were seeking major-league talent that could help right away, sources tell The Athletic. Team is currently six games out in NL wild card race, trailing five teams.

 

I mean, couldn't the Brewers cobble that together?? Burnes, Peralta etc??

The Mets seemingly really wanted Yasmani Grandal in the off-season and offered him a multi-year deal. Their backup plan, Wilson Ramos, hasn’t worked out as they had hoped and he’s had a poor year defensively. If the Mets still are trying to compete this year or convinced they could lock him up long term maybe they would ask for him to be included.

 

Rosenthal did report this in The Athletic this morning...

 

The Brewers, arguably the most creative team at last year’s deadline, have kicked around the idea of bolstering their injury-depleted rotation by trading one of their potential free agents: catcher Yasmani Grandal or infielder Mike Moustakas. It’s unclear whether the concept has advanced beyond internal discussions.

 

Rosenthal was the first one to report (in the off-season prior to 2018) that the Brewers were interested in Moustakas and would be open to moving Shaw to 2B. It seemed preposterous at the time and didn’t come to fruition until more than six months later when the Brewers traded for him at the deadline, but clearly he has a decent source on the Brewers front office discussions.

[pacopete4]

How can we also pry Dominic Smith away?

[brewmann04]

I can see Matt Harvey donning a Brewers uniform

[wntrtxn21]

I can see Matt Harvey donning a Brewers uniform

 

Harvey has been beyond awful so far this year. He hasn't pitched in 10 days since being DFA'd by the Angels. I don't see him being any better than Smith or Wilkerson. I doubt any gm will waste time on Harvey other than a minor lg. contract.

[Brewcrewin07]

Steve Phillips

@StevePhillipsGM

Pretty creative move by the #Mets. As a prospective seller, by acquiring Stroman, they changed the supply side of the equation without changing the demand side. This makes their starters (Syndergaard and Wheeler) more valuable in trade discussions with teams in need of starters.

[OnTheBlack]

Ivan Nova pitched a gem for the White Sox last night beating the Twins. In his last 2 starts he's allowed one earned run over 15 innings. I predict he'll make his next start in a Brewer uniform.

 

Are we talking about the same Ivan Nova with the 5.23 ERA - 5.22 FIP. 150 hits in only 125 IPs. 73 ERs and 1.7 HR per 9. Making over $9.1M and a rental to boot? No thanks!

 

 

Agreed, I'd just assume put Jimmy Nelson back into the rotation if this is all they can do for Pitching. It would be no different performance wise.

 

 

It almost certainly would.

[JohnBriggs12]

Regarding Nova, recency counts for a guy who in 2017 and 2018 was a solid 4th starter in the NL Central. He's made 5 starts in July. In 3 of those starts he's logged 20 2/3 innings, allowed 11 hits, 1 earned run, and 1 HR. His ERA on June 13th was 6.28. Now it's 5.23. Basically, he's back to the guy who was low 4 ERA guy for the Bucs the last 2 years.

 

Keep in mind in the short term the Brewers need 2 starters, not one. They need to expend prospect capital to get the prime target. The second guy will be a pure rental and one that won't cost anything of significance. That's where Nova fits.

[tmwiese55]

Interesting idea on the Nova/Colome thing. That's the type of move I expect from them. I just can't see them punting on the year being 1 game out but also shouldn't be "going all in" or anything like that with this current team. Getting an ok innings eater pitcher and some OK BP help without giving up any legit prospects and see what happens.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Still think Baltimore's Dylan Bundy could be Jake Arrieta 2.0 with a change of scenery.

 

Controlled through 2021. Hope he's on Stearns radar as a buy low candidate.

[HarveysWBs]

I wonder if the Brewers could handle the Trevor Bauer experience...

[brooks_quichenick]

I wonder if the Brewers could handle the Trevor Bauer experience...

 

Don’t want Bauer anywhere near the Brewers clubhouse.

[PeaveyFury]

The more I think about it, the more Grienke makes sense. The Brewers don't have the farm to go after high-powered names like Thor, but they could be able to get Grienke if they're willing to take on most of the contract. They'd have to be willing to do so, obviously, but it wouldn't cost them as much as other options.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Don't think Brewers can afford or would be willing to add Greinke's $32Million per season to the payroll through 2021.