Starting Pitching - 2019 Trade Deadline Edition

[pacopete4]

Greinke is the type of move that would either be awesome because he would defy just about all the rules with older pitchers that have thrown a lot of innings or a move that would be the beginning of the end of this “window”.

[Brewcrewin07]

What about pitchers who won't break the bank? Stroman, Boyd and Mad Bum are going to be highly sought after. Zach Wheeler is also going to cost Peralta or Burnes.

 

#1. Andrew Cashner- Innings eater. Has been reliable. He may be motivated to be out of the AL East and contending.

#2. Sonny Gray- Major risk/reward. Might cost a lot since it is inner divisional.

#3. Tanner Roark- He has been solid. Another risk/reward.

#4. Homer Bailey- Would be reasonable. He is more consistent than what we currently have beside Woodruff. He's always had good stuff.

#5. Mike Leake- Package with Roenis Elias?

 

I'm sorry, but none of these guys are significantly better than what the crew already has in the rotation. There is ZERO point in trading any prospects or anything of value for a starter unless it's a MAJOR upgrade. If you're a legit contender, you don't let the fear of what prospects "might" become, scare you out of making a MAJOR deal. That's what contenders do. Either go big, or go home DS.

 

For the record, I have absolutely ZERO issues including Peralta in a deal(for a controllable arm), I also have zero issues including Orlando Arcia in a deal..Including those two in a deal would be a way to acquire a big piece, without having to tap into your farm system and without it hurting the current team significantly.

[Eye Black]

The idea of acquiring Andrew Cashner is starting to grow on me.

[wntrtxn21]

The idea of acquiring Andrew Cashner is starting to grow on me.

 

Shave off that growth.

[JosephC]

I haven't been much of a Cashner fan over the years, but to dismiss him would be a mistake IMO. He's totally redone his repertoire this season. In 2017 and 2018 his pitch breakdown was approximately 35% sinker, 25% fastball, 15% change-up, 10% cutter, 10% curveball and 5% slider. So far this year it's been 45% fastball, 25% change-up, 15% curveball, 10% slider and 5% sinker. So he's basically shelved the sinker and cutter, and is just going more 4-seam fastball and primarily using 3 off-speed pitchers. The fastball has been a slight negative pitch but the change-up has been very effective pitch. It appears he has gotten a bit lucky with a .256 BABIP. His ground ball % of 49.2 is 16th best out of 78 qualifying pitchers. I'm not a big fan of Cashner, but he could be one of the more attractive candidates when factoring in the price-tag.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

OK, obviously with Woodruff and Chacin nursing injuries that are going to keep them out for 4-6 weeks, the Brewers need to grab at least one starter. There are several solid trade candidates out there.

 

Tier 1 (controllable upper-level arms):

1. Noah Syndergaard

2. Marcus Stroman

3. Trevor Bauer

4. Robbie Ray

5. Matthew Boyd

 

Tier 2 (innings-eating rentals):

6. Madison Bumgarner

7. Zach Wheeler

8. Jason Vargas

9. Ivan Nova

10. Tanner Roark

11. Homer Bailey

 

 

Tier 3 (innings-eating controllable starters):

12. Mike Minor

13. Caleb Smith

14. Trevor Richards

15. Lance Lynn

16. Dylan Bundy

17. Alex Wood

18. Danny Duffy

19. Mike Leake

20. Jordan Lyles

 

Free Agent options:

21. Matt Harvey

22. Chris Tillman

23. James Shields

 

Minors possibilities:

24. Shelby Miller

25. Trey Supak

26. Aaron Wilkerson

27. Burch Smith (I know he's on the MLB roster right now)

28. Thomas Jankins

29. Bubba Derby

30. Zach Brown

 

I kinda would like one from Tier 2 and one from Tier 3. Of course, what will probably happen is Houser will be moved to the rotation, and they'll either move Burch Smith there as well, or purchase Shelby Miller's contract.

[brewmann04]

I like to get a stud ace but don't think that can be done

I would not mind Lynn and Minor but can't see DS trading for 2 starters

[HarveysWBs]

OK, obviously with Woodruff and Chacin nursing injuries that are going to keep them out for 4-6 weeks, the Brewers need to grab at least one starter. There are several solid trade candidates out there.

 

Tier 1 (controllable upper-level arms):

1. Noah Syndergaard

2. Marcus Stroman

3. Trevor Bauer

4. Robbie Ray

5. Matthew Boyd

 

Tier 2 (innings-eating rentals):

6. Madison Bumgarner

7. Zach Wheeler

8. Jason Vargas

9. Lance Lynn

10. Ivan Nova

 

Tier 3 (innings-eating controllable starters):

11. Mike Minor

12. Caleb Smith

13. Tanner Roark

14. Trevor Richards

15. Alex Wood

16. Mike Leake

17. Jordan Lyles

 

Free Agent options:

18. Matt Harvey

19. Chris Tillman

20. James Shields

 

Minors possibilities:

21. Shelby Miller

22. Trey Supak

23. Aaron Wilkerson

24. Burch Smith (I know he's on the MLB roster right now)

25. Thomas Jankins

26. Bubba Derby

27. Zach Brown

 

I kinda would like one from Tier 2 and one from Tier 3. Of course, what will probably happen is Houser will be moved to the rotation, and they'll either move Burch Smith there as well, or purchase Shelby Miller's contract.

 

Just out of curiosity, how did you decide your tiers? I like several of the guys in tier 3 more than the ones in tier 2, so I’m wondering if you set up the tiers based on expected cost to acquire, or quality of arms, or how much you would desire that particular player?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

OK, obviously with Woodruff and Chacin nursing injuries that are going to keep them out for 4-6 weeks, the Brewers need to grab at least one starter. There are several solid trade candidates out there.

 

Tier 1 (controllable upper-level arms):

1. Noah Syndergaard

2. Marcus Stroman

3. Trevor Bauer

4. Robbie Ray

5. Matthew Boyd

 

Tier 2 (innings-eating rentals):

6. Madison Bumgarner

7. Zach Wheeler

8. Jason Vargas

9. Lance Lynn

10. Ivan Nova

 

Tier 3 (innings-eating controllable starters):

11. Mike Minor

12. Caleb Smith

13. Tanner Roark

14. Trevor Richards

15. Alex Wood

16. Mike Leake

17. Jordan Lyles

 

Free Agent options:

18. Matt Harvey

19. Chris Tillman

20. James Shields

 

Minors possibilities:

21. Shelby Miller

22. Trey Supak

23. Aaron Wilkerson

24. Burch Smith (I know he's on the MLB roster right now)

25. Thomas Jankins

26. Bubba Derby

27. Zach Brown

 

I kinda would like one from Tier 2 and one from Tier 3. Of course, what will probably happen is Houser will be moved to the rotation, and they'll either move Burch Smith there as well, or purchase Shelby Miller's contract.

 

Just out of curiosity, how did you decide your tiers? I like several of the guys in tier 3 more than the ones in tier 2, so I’m wondering if you set up the tiers based on expected cost to acquire, or quality of arms, or how much you would desire that particular player?

 

Basically cost/benefit analysis for 2019. I personally like several of the Tier 3 guys more than Tier 2 as well (Minor, Smith and Richards), but the prospect cost on those guys I imagine will be significantly higher. Also Roark is a rental, so I adjusted my list, while adding Danny Duffy, who I neglected to throw in. I suppose Homer Bailey could be added to the rental pile as well.

[Eye Black]

I like the list JMB, but wouldn't Lance Lynn belong in Tier 3 since he is under contract through 2021? Maybe I misunderstood that part.

 

It is maybe a little farfetched that he'll get traded, but I might include Jon Gray in tier 1. Again, it's unlikely he'll be moved this deadline, but I could see the Rockies trading him for MLB ready prospects this winter when he'll have just 2 years remaining. I would put him as a potential TOR breakout candidate if he goes to the right organization. Sort of like the ascension of Gerrit Cole with the Astros.

 

Solely because he has had some impressive peripherals at Double-A this year and is now 24 years old I have started to wonder if Alec Bettinger could be a (very) long shot dark horse to get a shot at some point?

 

Lastly, I hope Brent Suter gets a chance to pitch some meaningful innings this season, but I guess it would be more realistic to expect him to come out of the bullpen than to be a starter.

[JohnBriggs12]

Lynn isn't a rental. He's signed for 2 more years. Texas is going to ask a lot.

[pacopete4]

Would love to get Gray. He’d be a pitcher that would make sense on giving up quality prospects. Only thing that scares me are his walks.

[JohnBriggs12]

Nova's overall numbers are bad but he's shown some life lately and he's 2-0 vs. the the Cubs. If they deal for 2 starters, he would make a nice cheap option for the second.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I like the list JMB, but wouldn't Lance Lynn belong in Tier 3 since he is under contract through 2021? Maybe I misunderstood that part.

 

It is maybe a little farfetched that he'll get traded, but I might include Jon Gray in tier 1. Again, it's unlikely he'll be moved this deadline, but I could see the Rockies trading him for MLB ready prospects this winter when he'll have just 2 years remaining. I would put him as a potential TOR breakout candidate if he goes to the right organization. Sort of like the ascension of Gerrit Cole with the Astros.

 

Solely because he has had some impressive peripherals at Double-A this year and is now 24 years old I have started to wonder if Alec Bettinger could be a (very) long shot dark horse to get a shot at some point?

 

Lastly, I hope Brent Suter gets a chance to pitch some meaningful innings this season, but I guess it would more realistic to expect him to come out of the bullpen than to be a starter.

 

You're right ... i forgot that his deal with the Rangers was 3 years. I assumed it was a 1-year deal, but I got his deals with the Rangers this past spring and with the Twins last year confused.

 

Good point on Gray as well. That would be one heck of a talented arm to grab. I think Freeland could be classified as that as well, but I doubt the Rockies sell him at such a low point.

[KeithStone53151]

I like the list JMB, but wouldn't Lance Lynn belong in Tier 3 since he is under contract through 2021? Maybe I misunderstood that part.

 

It is maybe a little farfetched that he'll get traded, but I might include Jon Gray in tier 1. Again, it's unlikely he'll be moved this deadline, but I could see the Rockies trading him for MLB ready prospects this winter when he'll have just 2 years remaining. I would put him as a potential TOR breakout candidate if he goes to the right organization. Sort of like the ascension of Gerrit Cole with the Astros.

 

Solely because he has had some impressive peripherals at Double-A this year and is now 24 years old I have started to wonder if Alec Bettinger could be a (very) long shot dark horse to get a shot at some point?

 

Lastly, I hope Brent Suter gets a chance to pitch some meaningful innings this season, but I guess it would more realistic to expect him to come out of the bullpen than to be a starter.

 

I've been wondering about the Rockies and selling. I'm sure Arenado would be super thrilled to sign a big extension and have the team sell hard during the last of his prime years.

[pacopete4]

 

I've been wondering about the Rockies and selling. I'm sure Arenado would be super thrilled to sign a big extension and have the team sell hard during the last of his prime years.

 

Well, we can give them Moose and Shaw and we will take grumpy Arenado off their hands.

[JosephC]

I would have been in for Wheeler a few weeks ago, and Ray as recent as a few days ago...but the Brewers have slipped to only having the 7th best record in the NL. Now they have to overcome Woodruff's injury, can't even hold hope for a Chacin rebound, and the bullpen has really looked bad recently. I think I'd be out as an active buyer at this point. The team has just lost too many recent series to bad ballclubs.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Fixed my error on Lynn, and added Dylan Bundy. He might be a fun buy low guy.

[pacopete4]

I think I’d target Danny Duffy. He just screams Brewers “ace” to me. Steady just about every year. Seems pretty dependable. Adds a lefty to the staff also.

[mlloyd10]

I think I’d target Danny Duffy. He just screams Brewers “ace” to me. Steady just about every year. Seems pretty dependable. Adds a lefty to the staff also.

 

If they eat some money

[pacopete4]

I think I’d target Danny Duffy. He just screams Brewers “ace” to me. Steady just about every year. Seems pretty dependable. Adds a lefty to the staff also.

 

If they eat some money

 

Getting $15M each of the next two years. Maybe eat a couple million but I don’t think it’s too far off from his value.

[Brewcrewin07]

I would have been in for Wheeler a few weeks ago, and Ray as recent as a few days ago...but the Brewers have slipped to only having the 7th best record in the NL. Now they have to overcome Woodruff's injury, can't even hold hope for a Chacin rebound, and the bullpen has really looked bad recently. I think I'd be out as an active buyer at this point. The team has just lost too many recent series to bad ballclubs.

 

And with that being said, they could very easily win 2-3 or even sweep the Cubs and suddenly be in 1st place. Would that then change your perspective??

[JohnBriggs12]

I think I’d target Danny Duffy. He just screams Brewers “ace” to me. Steady just about every year. Seems pretty dependable. Adds a lefty to the staff also.

 

If they eat some money

 

Getting $15M each of the next two years. Maybe eat a couple million but I don’t think it’s too far off from his value.

 

Agreed. Plus the more they'd have to eat, the higher his cost would be in talent back. Considering the cost of reliable veteran starters, 2 years and just over $30 million seems reasonable. I think Duffy would benefit from a move to the NL by getting to face the opposing pitcher twice. He's got postseason experience too. Personally, I've always liked Duffy and he would fit in with ex teammates Moose and Cain.

[JohnBriggs12]

I like to get a stud ace but don't think that can be done

I would not mind Lynn and Minor but can't see DS trading for 2 starters

 

I think DS would like to get a starter who's a solid 2-3 and hope for a month he can replicate something close to Woodruff and a solid 4-5 rental guy on the cheap who'd be an upgrade over what Chacin's given them this year.

[IntentionalHBP]

Sounds like Syndergaard is on the move. I highly doubt Brewers get him but just imagine if they did..

 

 

[Olney] Rival evaluators say they believe the Mets are fully intent on dealing Noah Syndergaard before the trade deadline. “It’s beyond listening,” said one. “They want to move him.”