Starting Pitching - 2019 Trade Deadline Edition

[Eye Black]

Topic question: Among the starting pitchers potentially available leading up to the 2019 trade deadline who do you think the Brewers should target?

 

Feel free to add what you think it will take to acquire your target(s). If you don’t think they should target any starting pitcher upgrade go ahead and state your case.

 

 

Adam McCalvy provided this insight in his Brewers’ inbox article this week...

 

Question: Is this the year general manager David Stearns makes a significant trade for a starter?

 

Answer: If not this year, then when? It’s hard to trade for an impact starter, and even harder to pick the guy who will actually make a difference. For every CC Sabathia or Justin Verlander, there are a handful of examples of teams giving up premium prospects for a starter and wishing later that they could take it back. But here are some factors to think about this year:

 

1. The Brewers have already gone through most of their in-house depth after Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Jimmy Nelson didn’t pan out, and with the Opening Day curse having bitten Jhoulys Chacín.

 

2. There’s a degree of “the chips are in” this season with Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas on one-year deals and performing well enough to be finalists to start the All-Star Game.

 

3. There should be some financial flexibility after opting not to spend on Dallas Keuchel or Craig Kimbrel in order to preserve room to maneuver.

 

Remember, this year July 31 is a hard Deadline. No more waiver trades in August. The next five weeks are going to be big.

 

The July 31st trade deadline is exactly 5 weeks away (from yesterday). Below are some of the pitchers that have been speculated as possibly being available this deadline, although several of these teams are obviously still in the playoff picture at this point. The list is ordered by years of control remaining (from least to most control). If you think I missed any starting pitchers that are being rumored as possibly available please mention it in the thread and I will update the list accordingly.

 

 

Madison Bumgarner, LHP, San Francisco Giants (0.5 years of control)

 

Zack Wheeler, RHP, New York Mets (0.5 years of control)

 

Tanner Roark, RHP, Cincinnati Reds (0.5 years of control)

 

Alex Wood, LHP, Cincinnati Reds (0.5 years of control) - Currently still on IL

 

Homer Bailey, RHP, Kansas City Royals (0.5 years of control)

 

Andrew Cashner, RHP, Baltimore Orioles (0.5 years of control)

 

Marcus Stroman, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (1.5 years of control)

 

Trevor Bauer, RHP, Cleveland Indians (1.5 years of control)

 

Robbie Ray, LHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (1.5 years of control)

 

Mike Minor, LHP, Texas Rangers (1.5 years of control)

 

Mike Leake, RHP, Seattle Mariners (1.5 years of control)

 

Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (1.5 years of control)

 

Zack Greinke, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.5 years of control)

 

Noah Syndergaard, RHP, New York Mets (2.5 years of control)

 

Max Scherzer, RHP, Washington Nationals (2.5 years of control)

 

Danny Duffy, LHP, Kansas City Royals (2.5 years of control)

 

Matthew Boyd, LHP, Detroit Tigers (3.5 years of control)

 

Caleb Smith, LHP, Miami Marlins (4.5 years of control)

[JosephC]

When looking at the Brewers suspected amount of payroll space available and prospects in the system, I would almost immediately think that guys like Greinke, Syndergaard, Scherzer, Boyd and Smith would be near unobtainable (assuming that Hiura is off the board). Somebody like Syndergaard may be able to be gotten at a discount, but have to think that plenty of teams would be interested and it's pretty easy for a majority of teams to outbid the Brewers. I would also say the same thing about Stroman and Bauer. Any of the names above, to be even remotely competitive for any of those guys would require Turang and a bunch more. Bumgarner...I still think somebody has to drastically overpay for him or else SF will just keep him. Aaron Sanchez is simply a bad pitcher at this point and not even an upgrade over Milwaukee's worst options, and while I like Alex Wood, his injury situation has to completely remove him from the board.

 

Wheeler, Roark, Ray and Minor are the guys that make the most sense IMO. But since Ray and Minor have 1.5 years of control, have to think that the Brewers would have to start the package with Turang. If Turang is off the board, then I see the list as being down to just Wheeler and Roark. Wheeler has an ugly ERA (4.69), but the FIP (3.74) and xFIP (3.90) are much better. Roark is the opposite, good ERA (3.36) but marginal xFIP (4.37). Roark has a bad ground ball rate (36.1%) and appears to have been pretty lucky with the HR/FB % (only 8.1%). Roark has a higher salary than Wheeler (10 million versus 5.975), so if the Brewers are picking up all of the salary, then Roark should be slightly (but not significantly) cheaper in terms of prospects.

[JohnBriggs12]

Give me Wheeler. He looked great against the Cubs over the weekend and I think he's got potential for a great stretch. Brewers and Cubs are ensuring Reds are in the race at least through end of July so Roark isn't an option.

[nate82]

You can add Strasberg to the list he has an opt out after 2019 or 2020.

[Brew crew 92]

Give me Wheeler. He looked great against the Cubs over the weekend and I think he's got potential for a great stretch. Brewers and Cubs are ensuring Reds are in the race at least through end of July so Roark isn't an option.

 

100% agree.

 

Rental will help keep the prospects reasonable, this is it, also, change of scenery and away from the chaos that is the Mets could do wonders for him too.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I've always liked Wheeler as well ... ever since the Brewers initially dealt for him in that scrapped Gomez deal. I agree that the prospect cost shouldn't be insane.

[JosephC]

A poster on MLBTradeRumors suggested one of my personal non-favorites...Homer Bailey. After I cleaned the vomit off of my desk I went and looked at his numbers, and lately he's been surprisingly good. Just had a 1 run allowed, 5 1/3 inning performance against the Twins offense. 2.51 ERA in 5 June starts. He gave up 10 earned runs in his first two starts of the year, since then he's thrown 70 innings and posted a 3.98 ERA. 4.12 FIP so far this season with a less attractive 4.53 xFIP. Fairly solid ground ball rate of 44.7%. Has had a little luck with the HR/FB rate (11.7%) but the BABIP number is pretty close to average (.300). The Dodgers had released him so they are on the hook for the contract, if the Brewers acquired him they would only have to pay him at the league minimum rate. I can't imagine the price on him would be very high considering his run from 2016-2018 which was truly awful, I'd guess two non-top 30 prospects. Who knows, maybe the guy just really needed to get out of Cincinnati? Factoring in the home park and luck aspects, right now he sure looks like a 4.50 ERA pitcher that will consistently give the team 5-7 innings per start. I like his profile over the remainder of the season more than Chase Anderson, and Anderson may just stick in the rotation for awhile if no additions are made.

[Brewcrewin07]

Give me all the Trevor Bauer

[KeithStone53151]

I like the idea of trying to get Bumgarner at a decent price. I like that he's been pitching 6-7 innings pretty much every start. I feel like we really need a guy like that to help stabilize the rotation a bit. Others can do it too, I think Bumgarner would be a bit cost effective. That said, I think he has us on his no trade list...I think he's intent on picking his destination or getting a financial kicker to approve a trade.

[OnTheBlack]

Give me Wheeler. He looked great against the Cubs over the weekend and I think he's got potential for a great stretch. Brewers and Cubs are ensuring Reds are in the race at least through end of July so Roark isn't an option.

Tampa Bay was a very good team in a great league last year. A league in which 97 wins was only good for the 2nd WC spot and 90 wins left them 18 back in the division.

 

They traded their best pitcher(Archer) and got a massive haul in return. I have been against doing the same with Hader, but I think it's something we should start to consider.

 

I don't want to give up Turang, Hiura, Burnes. I'd trade Grisham, but that's is out of ignorance as I know little about him beyond what you can read on the back of his card and on scouting reports.

 

My ideal way forward would be to try and move Moose, Grandal, Anderson, Thames, save some money this year, try to acquire a couple big league ready(or close to) players for the next 2-3 years(the Yelich window) and then go out and spend money next year in a loaded FA market to get a guy like Cole, and then spend to get Will Smith. I'd guess that'd be 6/160 and 2/12.

 

I'm not a "Brewers can spend 180 because they only spent 70 this year" type guy, but they have money coming off the books with Braun and the players I mentioned and they can afford to spend on a pitcher when they have so many young, talented pitchers.

 

Cole and Woodruff give you a 1-2 punch and I believe you throw Burnes in there and you WILL have a great 1-3 with a plethora of 4/5 options and you have a lot of BP options.

 

Hader is great, but we get back Knebel, Wahl and we have a lot of arms coming up this year and in a years time, who knows how many more may be here? Rasmussen? Even Snell could be a left handed weapon late in the year for us(that's very optimistic, but my point is we have a ton of arms and should be able to find 7-10 good arms in the org and if you sign someone like Smith to pair with Knebel, Jeffress, Wahl, that's potentially a very good BP).

 

 

I am sure many will disagree and if the price gets too outrageous, I wouldn't give up any flexibility for the next few years to sign him. But if not him, I wouldn't touch Strausburg with a 10 foot pole given what he'll likely command(though his stuff, even with his velocity now in "just" the mid 90's is ridiculous).

 

And while there are several other good vets, they don't fit the mold that we need.

 

 

That's the most likely path to a true contender in MY opinion. I'm sure many will disagree.

[OnTheBlack]

I like the idea of trying to get Bumgarner at a decent price. I like that he's been pitching 6-7 innings pretty much every start. I feel like we really need a guy like that to help stabilize the rotation a bit. Others can do it too, I think Bumgarner would be a bit cost effective. That said, I think he has us on his no trade list...I think he's intent on picking his destination or getting a financial kicker to approve a trade.

 

 

I'm 100 pct with ya, but this is where I think the values you come up with that may normally be closer to the mark will be skewed. The Giants trading the face of their franchise, the guy who they believe willed them to their last WS title and contributed to two others, I'm not sure they trade him, and if they do, I think they want back our farm and a few kidney's.

 

But if I'm wrong, yeah, he fits the bill.

 

 

What do you think about taking a page from the Rays and taking a step back, cutting the payroll, adding to the farm instead of stripping it and reloading for a shot next year while putting guys like Burnes and Peralta in the rotation this year so we can actually see what they can do? Add to the farm instead of stripping it and then go for it the next 2-3 years.

[adambr2]

Yep, I used that trade calculator to find a fair deal for Bumgarner. He calculates as having the exact same value as Lucas Erceg + Joe Gray + Yeison Coca.

 

That's the problem. That's a fair trade, but the Giants will laugh at it. And we shouldn't overpay just because the Giants are going to put a premium price on name and nostalgia, that's not our problem.

[Brew crew 92]

Give me Wheeler. He looked great against the Cubs over the weekend and I think he's got potential for a great stretch. Brewers and Cubs are ensuring Reds are in the race at least through end of July so Roark isn't an option.

Tampa Bay was a very good team in a great league last year. A league in which 97 wins was only good for the 2nd WC spot and 90 wins left them 18 back in the division.

 

They traded their best pitcher(Archer) and got a massive haul in return. I have been against doing the same with Hader, but I think it's something we should start to consider.

 

I don't want to give up Turang, Hiura, Burnes. I'd trade Grisham, but that's is out of ignorance as I know little about him beyond what you can read on the back of his card and on scouting reports.

 

My ideal way forward would be to try and move Moose, Grandal, Anderson, Thames, save some money this year, try to acquire a couple big league ready(or close to) players for the next 2-3 years(the Yelich window) and then go out and spend money next year in a loaded FA market to get a guy like Cole, and then spend to get Will Smith. I'd guess that'd be 6/160 and 2/12.

 

I'm not a "Brewers can spend 180 because they only spent 70 this year" type guy, but they have money coming off the books with Braun and the players I mentioned and they can afford to spend on a pitcher when they have so many young, talented pitchers.

 

Cole and Woodruff give you a 1-2 punch and I believe you throw Burnes in there and you WILL have a great 1-3 with a plethora of 4/5 options and you have a lot of BP options.

 

Hader is great, but we get back Knebel, Wahl and we have a lot of arms coming up this year and in a years time, who knows how many more may be here? Rasmussen? Even Snell could be a left handed weapon late in the year for us(that's very optimistic, but my point is we have a ton of arms and should be able to find 7-10 good arms in the org and if you sign someone like Smith to pair with Knebel, Jeffress, Wahl, that's potentially a very good BP).

 

 

I am sure many will disagree and if the price gets too outrageous, I wouldn't give up any flexibility for the next few years to sign him. But if not him, I wouldn't touch Strausburg with a 10 foot pole given what he'll likely command(though his stuff, even with his velocity now in "just" the mid 90's is ridiculous).

 

And while there are several other good vets, they don't fit the mold that we need.

 

 

That's the most likely path to a true contender in MY opinion. I'm sure many will disagree.

 

Good post. Lots of good thoughts.

 

Let me give my thoughts on some of your thoughts:

 

I am of the belief that Attanasio SHOULD up the payroll to 180 in a WS contention year.

 

The days of the Small market team, like the Royals in 15, winning the WS are over. Big market GMs are too wise with the analytics to make the mistakes of the past. The Rays have a < 5% chance of pulling it off this year, and they have done the best job of the small market teams. We can pretend we can win it with our “largest payroll ever”127 mil. When the Brainiac Friedman Epstein has 200-245 to play with. We need to wake up, imo, to this fact. What could Stearns do with an extra 100 mil.?, what could Stearns do with an extra 50 mil?

 

What could Stearns do with the extra 50 mil? That should be the question, in a WS CONTENTION YEAR. Attanasio has said in the past, when the payroll was super low and of course we still came out in droves to miller park, that he would bank $ for future payroll, when needed. Last year 66 mil. GROSS profit(don’t tell me about taxes and interest, I’m well aware it’s not net) PLUS 10-20 mil in playoff revenue 76-86 mil gross. Plus the value of his team up over 127 million LAST YEAR ALONE. Not saying the value of the brewers and payroll should have anything to do with each other.

 

So I have to say I’m of the opposite view with your opinion of no 180 mil payroll when we save $ with a 70 mil payroll.

 

Imagine what Stearns can do with the 180 mil payroll, or 170 mil, because by 2021, the crew will have 25+ extra revenue from national TV and the new local TV deal. So without Braun’s contract plus the extra revenue that’s 35-40 mil extra payroll WITHOUT CHANGING THE PROFITS.

 

So Cole = Yes. Trade Hader > yes, if we can get 3 top 75-125 prospects, at least one of which is ML ready. Trade moose Grandal Anderson others > NO, still want to win this year and don’t need to save $. The REDS have a higher payroll than we do.

 

With Cole Woodruff Houser Burnes Peralta Davies Anderson Knebel Wahl Jeffress Guerra Among others we should be in good shape pitching wise. And with Stearns at the helm, and a payroll of 150-160, should ba able to fill the hole at C and assuming Shaw is done, 3B.

[wntrtxn21]

Give me Wheeler. He looked great against the Cubs over the weekend and I think he's got potential for a great stretch. Brewers and Cubs are ensuring Reds are in the race at least through end of July so Roark isn't an option.

Tampa Bay was a very good team in a great league last year. A league in which 97 wins was only good for the 2nd WC spot and 90 wins left them 18 back in the division.

 

They traded their best pitcher(Archer) and got a massive haul in return. I have been against doing the same with Hader, but I think it's something we should start to consider.

 

I don't want to give up Turang, Hiura, Burnes. I'd trade Grisham, but that's is out of ignorance as I know little about him beyond what you can read on the back of his card and on scouting reports.

 

My ideal way forward would be to try and move Moose, Grandal, Anderson, Thames, save some money this year, try to acquire a couple big league ready(or close to) players for the next 2-3 years(the Yelich window) and then go out and spend money next year in a loaded FA market to get a guy like Cole, and then spend to get Will Smith. I'd guess that'd be 6/160 and 2/12.

 

I'm not a "Brewers can spend 180 because they only spent 70 this year" type guy, but they have money coming off the books with Braun and the players I mentioned and they can afford to spend on a pitcher when they have so many young, talented pitchers.

 

Cole and Woodruff give you a 1-2 punch and I believe you throw Burnes in there and you WILL have a great 1-3 with a plethora of 4/5 options and you have a lot of BP options.

 

Hader is great, but we get back Knebel, Wahl and we have a lot of arms coming up this year and in a years time, who knows how many more may be here? Rasmussen? Even Snell could be a left handed weapon late in the year for us(that's very optimistic, but my point is we have a ton of arms and should be able to find 7-10 good arms in the org and if you sign someone like Smith to pair with Knebel, Jeffress, Wahl, that's potentially a very good BP).

 

 

I am sure many will disagree and if the price gets too outrageous, I wouldn't give up any flexibility for the next few years to sign him. But if not him, I wouldn't touch Strausburg with a 10 foot pole given what he'll likely command(though his stuff, even with his velocity now in "just" the mid 90's is ridiculous).

 

And while there are several other good vets, they don't fit the mold that we need.

 

 

That's the most likely path to a true contender in MY opinion. I'm sure many will disagree.

 

Who plays 3B is Moose is gone? Who catches if Grandal is traded? Neither one will bring a near ready MLB prospect to replace them next year. Stearns would have to spend a ton of money to replace them so why not try and re-sign them and build from there. With Shaw is such a funk with the stick, who knows if he's going to recover. Right now you'd be lucky to get a med. level A ball prospect for Anderson. A lot of stock is being placed on Wahl on these blogs. Wahl has done nothing to warrent such high expectations. He throws very hard, but now he will be coming off arm problems. I wouldn't count on him for anything and if he does do well it's an added bonus. Jeffress is just a shadow of his old self. He has lost 3-4 mph on his fastball and his other pitches aren't nearly as effective. He's already allowed more runs than he did all of last year. His BBs per 9 are up. His hits per 9 are up and his Ks per 9 are down significantly. Knebel will be coming off arm surgery as well and nobody knows how that will end up. If Hader is gone the bull pen is a gigantic mess.

[Brew crew 92]

Give me Wheeler. He looked great against the Cubs over the weekend and I think he's got potential for a great stretch. Brewers and Cubs are ensuring Reds are in the race at least through end of July so Roark isn't an option.

Tampa Bay was a very good team in a great league last year. A league in which 97 wins was only good for the 2nd WC spot and 90 wins left them 18 back in the division.

 

They traded their best pitcher(Archer) and got a massive haul in return. I have been against doing the same with Hader, but I think it's something we should start to consider.

 

I don't want to give up Turang, Hiura, Burnes. I'd trade Grisham, but that's is out of ignorance as I know little about him beyond what you can read on the back of his card and on scouting reports.

 

My ideal way forward would be to try and move Moose, Grandal, Anderson, Thames, save some money this year, try to acquire a couple big league ready(or close to) players for the next 2-3 years(the Yelich window) and then go out and spend money next year in a loaded FA market to get a guy like Cole, and then spend to get Will Smith. I'd guess that'd be 6/160 and 2/12.

 

I'm not a "Brewers can spend 180 because they only spent 70 this year" type guy, but they have money coming off the books with Braun and the players I mentioned and they can afford to spend on a pitcher when they have so many young, talented pitchers.

 

Cole and Woodruff give you a 1-2 punch and I believe you throw Burnes in there and you WILL have a great 1-3 with a plethora of 4/5 options and you have a lot of BP options.

 

Hader is great, but we get back Knebel, Wahl and we have a lot of arms coming up this year and in a years time, who knows how many more may be here? Rasmussen? Even Snell could be a left handed weapon late in the year for us(that's very optimistic, but my point is we have a ton of arms and should be able to find 7-10 good arms in the org and if you sign someone like Smith to pair with Knebel, Jeffress, Wahl, that's potentially a very good BP).

 

 

I am sure many will disagree and if the price gets too outrageous, I wouldn't give up any flexibility for the next few years to sign him. But if not him, I wouldn't touch Strausburg with a 10 foot pole given what he'll likely command(though his stuff, even with his velocity now in "just" the mid 90's is ridiculous).

 

And while there are several other good vets, they don't fit the mold that we need.

 

 

That's the most likely path to a true contender in MY opinion. I'm sure many will disagree.

 

Who plays 3B is Moose is gone? Who catches if Grandal is traded? Neither one will bring a near ready MLB prospect to replace them next year. Stearns would have to spend a ton of money to replace them so why not try and re-sign them and build from there. With Shaw is such a funk with the stick, who knows if he's going to recover. Right now you'd be lucky to get a med. level A ball prospect for Anderson. A lot of stock is being placed on Wahl on these blogs. Wahl has done nothing to warrent such high expectations. He throws very hard, but now he will be coming off arm problems. I wouldn't count on him for anything and if he does do well it's an added bonus. Jeffress is just a shadow of his old self. He has lost 3-4 mph on his fastball and his other pitches aren't nearly as effective. He's already allowed more runs than he did all of last year. His BBs per 9 are up. His hits per 9 are up and his Ks per 9 are down significantly. Knebel will be coming off arm surgery as well and nobody knows how that will end up. If Hader is gone the bull pen is a gigantic mess.

 

Wahl hurt his knee, not his arm. Disagree slightly on your Jeffress description, FB down 2 ticks and his secondary stuff still explodes, but command is a little off, shadow of his former self a little harsh. I’m betting on Knebel being Knebel the second half of next year. We have a couple interesting arms down below that could help the pen next year, and hoping Stearns goes against his M/O and signs a reliever this offseason.

[Eye Black]

A poster on MLBTradeRumors suggested one of my personal non-favorites...Homer Bailey. After I cleaned the vomit off of my desk I went and looked at his numbers, and lately he's been surprisingly good. Just had a 1 run allowed, 5 1/3 inning performance against the Twins offense. 2.51 ERA in 5 June starts. He gave up 10 earned runs in his first two starts of the year, since then he's thrown 70 innings and posted a 3.98 ERA. 4.12 FIP so far this season with a less attractive 4.53 xFIP. Fairly solid ground ball rate of 44.7%. Has had a little luck with the HR/FB rate (11.7%) but the BABIP number is pretty close to average (.300). The Dodgers had released him so they are on the hook for the contract, if the Brewers acquired him they would only have to pay him at the league minimum rate. I can't imagine the price on him would be very high considering his run from 2016-2018 which was truly awful, I'd guess two non-top 30 prospects. Who knows, maybe the guy just really needed to get out of Cincinnati? Factoring in the home park and luck aspects, right now he sure looks like a 4.50 ERA pitcher that will consistently give the team 5-7 innings per start. I like his profile over the remainder of the season more than Chase Anderson, and Anderson may just stick in the rotation for awhile if no additions are made.

Thanks, I added Homer to the list!

 

I agree with those that mentioned Zack Wheeler seems to make a lot of sense. Ideally they would trade for a pitcher like Wheeler in early-to-mid July with the hope of getting 15+ starts out them.

 

As an aside, one pipe dream would be to add both Zack Wheeler and Zack Greinke to the rotation along with Zach Davies. I think they’d be fine pitchers, but more importantly the marketing possibilities with having a rotation known as the “Zack Attack” is just too amazing to not make happen.

[LouisEly]

Grienke is 35 and has two more years at $35M each left on his contract. If he was a FA after the season, yes, but not with $70M left.

[Eye Black]

Grienke is 35 and has two more years at $35M each left on his contract. If he was a FA after the season, yes, but not with $70M left.

Yeah, in all seriousness I think the odds of a trade between the Brewers and Dbacks for Greinke are pretty close to zero. If any team does trade for Greinke I assume the Dbacks will included somewhere between $15-$25 million in the deal in order to get a prospect return of some substance.

[Eye Black]

Another off the radar target, Orioles starter Andrew Cashner has been phenomenal in the month of June. He only made four starts in the month (against the Astros, A’s, Mariners, and Indians), but in those starts his line was the following...

 

[pre]G GS IP H R ER BB SO HR HBP ERA BF BA OBP SLG OPS

4 4 25.0 16 6 4 4 14 0 1 1.44 95 .180 .221 .247 .468[/pre]

 

He’s a free agent at season’s end, so it would merely be a low cost short term commitment. He wouldn’t really provide the top of the rotation addition the Brewers are looking for, but he would be another guy that could be plugged into the rotation to hopefully give some quality starts down the stretch (sort of similar to what Jordan Lyles provided the bullpen late last year).

[Eye Black]

Found this article on Marcus Stroman from the Astros blog The Crawfish Boxes interesting...

 

Taking another look at a potential Stroman trade

 

As JosephC mentioned earlier it isn’t difficult to envision the Brewers being outbid on a player like Stroman, but for some of the same reasons mentioned in the article I could see the Brewers being one of the teams very interested in making a run at trading for him this month. It would almost assuredly cost them either Turang or Lutz and additional good pieces to acquire the final 1.5 years of team control for Stroman. Ultimately teams such as the Astros or Braves are likely to have a more attractive headline piece, unfortunately.

[Jopal78]

Zack Greinke is an interesting idea. Say what you want about his age, but he's quietly approached a borderline Hall of Fame career.

 

More importantly, as his velocity on his fastball has diminished to the low 90s, he has reinvented himself as a 'pitcher' so there should be less concern of diminished performance as he continues to age. In fact, Greinke actually walks fewer batters per/9 and gives up fewer hits/9 than he did when pitching for Milwaukee 7-8 years ago. He's also the picture of durability as a pitcher. There have been only two years where he has made less than 32 starts or thrown fewer than 200 innings since he left Milwaukee.

 

While Greinke does not have trade protection involving Milwaukee; cutting against any trade is the fact Greinke is the only significant long-term contract on the books for the Diamondbacks.

 

However, the money isn't as difficult as it seams. First, there is an assignment bonus of 2 million dollars if he is traded. Greinke is still owed half his 31.5 million salary this year, and 32 million in 2020 and 2021. 10.5 million is deferred from 2019 and 11 million in both 2020 and 2021. The deferred payments begin in 2022 through 2026. There was also a signing bonus of 18 million dollars that is paid in annual installments of 3 million each year 2016-2021

 

If the Diamondbacks payed the deferred salary after a trade it would mean Greinke's remaining salary this year is 12.5 million (10.5 +2 assignment bonus), 24 million in 2020 and 2021 (32 base +3 bonus - 11 deferred). There is no question the Brewers could afford Greinke this year and on an ongoing basis since their spending over 24 million dollars on Moose and Grandal this year and neither will likely return next year.

 

The more pressing questions are: will the D'Backs be sellers (They have under performed their Pythagorean), and if they're kicking in 32.5 million dollars what sort of prospect package will they demand in return.

[OldHeidelberg]

Zack Greinke is an interesting idea. Say what you want about his age, but he's quietly approached a borderline Hall of Fame career.

 

More importantly, as his velocity on his fastball has diminished to the low 90s, he has reinvented himself as a 'pitcher' so there should be less concern of diminished performance as he continues to age. In fact, Greinke actually walks fewer batters per/9 and gives up fewer hits/9 than he did when pitching for Milwaukee 7-8 years ago. He's also the picture of durability as a pitcher. There have been only two years where he has made less than 32 starts or thrown fewer than 200 innings since he left Milwaukee.

 

While Greinke does not have trade protection involving Milwaukee; cutting against any trade is the fact Greinke is the only significant long-term contract on the books for the Diamondbacks.

 

However, the money isn't as difficult as it seams. First, there is an assignment bonus of 2 million dollars if he is traded. Greinke is still owed half his 31.5 million salary this year, and 32 million in 2020 and 2021. 10.5 million is deferred from 2019 and 11 million in both 2020 and 2021. The deferred payments begin in 2022 through 2026. There was also a signing bonus of 18 million dollars that is paid in annual installments of 3 million each year 2016-2021

 

If the Diamondbacks payed the deferred salary after a trade it would mean Greinke's remaining salary this year is 12.5 million (10.5 +2 assignment bonus), 24 million in 2020 and 2021 (32 base +3 bonus - 11 deferred). There is no question the Brewers could afford Greinke this year and on an ongoing basis since their spending over 24 million dollars on Moose and Grandal this year and neither will likely return next year.

 

The more pressing questions are: will the D'Backs be sellers (They have under performed their Pythagorean), and if they're kicking in 32.5 million dollars what sort of prospect package will they demand in return.

 

He was discussed a bit in the offseason, some of us thought if you could get the price down to 60-70 million for 3 years it was fair and worth it. Others question the fastball decline and how well he would age. I think he has answered that second question, at this point I would gladly offer the Dubon/Ray type package mentioned in the Boyd thread provided they kick in some money. But they wanted to trade him to get out from under that contract so they may be looking for a big market team who won't mind spending so much. Plus if we balked at spending on Keuchel/Kimbrell it's hard to see them taking on even half that salary.

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

What about pitchers who won't break the bank? Stroman, Boyd and Mad Bum are going to be highly sought after. Zach Wheeler is also going to cost Peralta or Burnes.

 

#1. Andrew Cashner- Innings eater. Has been reliable. He may be motivated to be out of the AL East and contending.

#2. Sonny Gray- Major risk/reward. Might cost a lot since it is inner divisional.

#3. Tanner Roark- He has been solid. Another risk/reward.

#4. Homer Bailey- Would be reasonable. He is more consistent than what we currently have beside Woodruff. He's always had good stuff.

#5. Mike Leake- Package with Roenis Elias?

[wntrtxn21]

What about pitchers who won't break the bank? Stroman, Boyd and Mad Bum are going to be highly sought after. Zach Wheeler is also going to cost Peralta or Burnes.

 

#1. Andrew Cashner- Innings eater. Has been reliable. He may be motivated to be out of the AL East and contending.

#2. Sonny Gray- Major risk/reward. Might cost a lot since it is inner divisional.

#3. Tanner Roark- He has been solid. Another risk/reward.

#4. Homer Bailey- Would be reasonable. He is more consistent than what we currently have beside Woodruff. He's always had good stuff.

#5. Mike Leake- Package with Roenis Elias?

 

I don't see Stearns being interested in Cashner unless he came extremely cheap. Terrible in '15, '16, rebounded in 2017 and then really bad again last year. He's too inconsistent to give up anything significant for.

I doubt the Reds trade within the division, especially since they are close to contending. Gray would be nice. He's not the #1 or #2 they need, but he'd help for sure. Depends on the asking price.

Homer Bailey has been awful for a long time. This year he is just bad. 4.87 ERA - 3.8 BBs per 9 - a hit per IP. He'd be a very cheap rental because the Dodgers are paying almost his entire contract, but is he any better than what they already have?

I wouldn't want Leake for anything even if they included Elias. Leake far more hits than IPs. 5.13 FIP, 4.63 ERA, 23 dingers allowed already.

Roark would be another rental and would help. I guess it depends on what the price was.

[OldHeidelberg]

 

The more pressing questions are: will the D'Backs be sellers (They have under performed their Pythagorean), and if they're kicking in 32.5 million dollars what sort of prospect package will they demand in return.

 

To try and answer this I checked on the trade value site and if the DBacks kicked in the 32.5 million you proposed and if the Brewers offered Ray/Dubon the values would be:

 

Greinke + 32.5 million = 20

Ray/Dubon = 16.8

 

So it's in the neighborhood.I still question whether the Brewers would want to pay what is left on the contract but Greinke's negative value and continued high level pitching makes him an interesting target.