Badgers Football 2019

[JosephC]

Trying to take an unbiased look in the Penn State vs. Wisconsin debate.

 

They played 6 common opponents:

 

Purdue = Penn State wins by 28 at home, Wisconsin wins by 21 at home...slight advantage to Penn State

Iowa = Penn State wins by 5 points on the road, Wisconsin wins by 2 points at home...advantage to Penn State

Michigan = Penn State wins by 7 at home, Wisconsin wins at 21 at home...advantage to Wisconsin

Michigan State = Penn State wins by 21 on the road, Wisconsin wins by 38 at home...advantage to Wisconsin

Minnesota = Penn State loses by 5 on the road, Wisconsin wins by 21 on the road...big advantage to Wisconsin

Ohio State = Penn State loses by 11 on the road, Wisconsin loses by 31 on the road...big advantage to Penn State

 

3-3 when looking at advantages with common opponents. However, Penn State is 4-2 in those games and Wisconsin is 5-1. Minnesota is obviously the most significant difference here. Both games at Minnesota and Wisconsin wins by 21 and Penn State loses by 5.

 

Then there is the Illinois loss to factor in for Wisconsin. But since Penn State didn't play Illinois, we'll never know exactly how that matchup would end up? Obviously if Penn State would have gone to Illinois and won by 28, then the advantage swings to their favor. But if Illinois went to Penn State and Illinois only loses by 7....how different does that play against a 2 point victory against Wisconsin in Illinois?

 

For me, I think the win/loss difference versus common opponents and especially the way that difference occurred...the Minnesota game...would sway me to pick Wisconsin over Penn State.

 

However, I anticipate Wisconsin finishes with 3 losses, will be the team that has the most recent loss, will indeed be penalized for playing the extra game and will find themselves in the Citrus Bowl.

[pacopete4]

PSU and Wisconsin are probably as close as you get this season. Either team can rise up and beat really good teams and either team can stumble and look like they don't even belong in the top 25.

[PeaveyFury]

Hasn’t there also historically been some weight given to how a team is playing at year- end? If so, Wisconsin won four straight to end the year, including two wins over top 8-18 opponents. Penn State lost two of their last four, beat Indiana by one score at home, and was only up 7-3 at halftime at home vs. a horrendous Rutgers team. I think that plays in UW’s favor as well.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I agree with that, and that's why I think this is stupid. If they had to pick right now UW has a better case in my opinion, but losing to OSU won't help. What if the championship game is competitive in the 4th quarter? I can't see how that doesn't help them vs. losing 42-6. I don't think PSU getting the Rose would be worthy of pitchforks or anything but I don't think there's a definitive argument that can be made for them.

[MrTPlush]

I agree with that, and that's why I think this is stupid. If they had to pick right now UW has a better case in my opinion, but losing to OSU won't help. What if the championship game is competitive in the 4th quarter? I can't see how that doesn't help them vs. losing 42-6. I don't think PSU getting the Rose would be worthy of pitchforks or anything but I don't think there's a definitive argument that can be made for them.

 

Because you are assuming their committee critically thinks about everything down to the smallest detail. I tend to doubt that is the reality.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't think playing the universally accepted top team in the country competitively in the conference championship game as opposed to losing by 30 is a small detail, especially when there is very little if any separation between PSU and UW. Do I think they have their own criteria for picking teams they'll never publicly admit? Do I think even if they think UW is better there's a chance they'd still pick PSU? Yes to both.

[Samurai Bucky]

Regarding PJ Fleck -- a couple / six pages back...

 

I'm not a Goofer fan -- not in the least. However, I am impressed by what Fleck has done in two years at Minne-ha-ha. He took players that sucked, and had them ranked in the top ten within two years. Is he over the top? You bet -- the stunt he pulled at Iowa as wayyyyyyyyyyyy over the top.

 

Listen to how his players talk about him. They say he is their best friend, somebody who cares, etc. I'm sure other coaches have the same type of effect on the kids, but it seems like Fleck's might be a little more genuine (???). How many times have we heard "move the drill" stories when somebody would get hurt. While the Gophers would move the drill, I think Fleck would take more of a vested interest in his players than most coaches. I have some relatives that are close to the program that have shared stories about how Fleck is a good guy.

 

Bottom line -- Fleck cares about his kids and isn't afraid to show it on... and off the field.

 

I think the Gophers might have turned a corner. Hopefully, Wisconsin can stay one step ahead.

[PeaveyFury]

Regarding PJ Fleck -- a couple / six pages back...

 

I'm not a Goofer fan -- not in the least. However, I am impressed by what Fleck has done in two years at Minne-ha-ha. He took players that sucked, and had them ranked in the top ten within two years. Is he over the top? You bet -- the stunt he pulled at Iowa as wayyyyyyyyyyyy over the top.

 

Listen to how his players talk about him. They say he is their best friend, somebody who cares, etc. I'm sure other coaches have the same type of effect on the kids, but it seems like Fleck's might be a little more genuine (???). How many times have we heard "move the drill" stories when somebody would get hurt. While the Gophers would move the drill, I think Fleck would take more of a vested interest in his players than most coaches. I have some relatives that are close to the program that have shared stories about how Fleck is a good guy.

 

Bottom line -- Fleck cares about his kids and isn't afraid to show it on... and off the field.

 

I think the Gophers might have turned a corner. Hopefully, Wisconsin can stay one step ahead.

 

I think it's all a me-first crap act, personally.

[JosephC]

Stewart Mandel of The Athletic is projecting Wisconsin to wind up in the Cotton Bowl....against Memphis. Yuck! I'd rather not get the "New Year's Six Bowls" bid and rather go to the Citrus and play an SEC team.

[MrTPlush]

Wisconsin will get the Rose Bowl vs. Oregon.

 

So for future reference it appears going to the championship game trumps all else in a tight race.

[nate82]

Wisconsin will get the Rose Bowl vs. Oregon.

 

So for future reference it appears going to the championship game trumps all else in a tight race.

 

I am actually disappointed by this. I wanted the Badgers to play Auburn I will still watch the Rose Bowl because it is the Badgers but Wisconsin vs Auburn would have been a better game to watch.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Wisconsin will get the Rose Bowl vs. Oregon.

 

So for future reference it appears going to the championship game trumps all else in a tight race.

 

I am actually disappointed by this. I wanted the Badgers to play Auburn I will still watch the Rose Bowl because it is the Badgers but Wisconsin vs Auburn would have been a better game to watch.

 

Better than the Taxslayer bowl vs Kentucky, which is what ESPN was projecting yesterday.

[pacopete4]

I was hoping for an SEC opponent to keep my interest a bit. Shoot.

[nodakfan17]

Happy for the Badgers ... thought they lost their chance at the Rose Bowl with that loss to Illinois. Hell, that probably should have cost them the NY6 altogether.

[JosephC]

One thing everyone has to admit about the Big 10, the conference generally has a very tough bowl schedule and this year is no exception.

 

Ohio State/Clemson

Wisconsin/Oregon

Penn State/Memphis

Michigan/Alabama

Minnesota/Auburn

Iowa/Southern California

Indiana/Tennessee

Michigan State/Wake Forest

Illinois/California

 

Penn State gets stuck with the one non-Power Five. But to think the four and fifth "seeds" get Alabama and Auburn, and Iowa has to play Southern California (who is also ranked).

[AKCheesehead]

I’m happy to see them take on the ducks.

 

Who else was there when Michael Bennett basically single handedly beat them in Madison?

[wildcat83]

Good for the program to get the Rose Bowl bid. Hopefully they play well. Also nice to see Taylor is already committed to playing in the game. Players skipping bowls drives me crazy. Totally get it financially, but still gets under my skin.

[PeaveyFury]

Sure glad I held off on buying my Pinstripe Bowl tickets after the Illinois game!

 

[MrTPlush]

I think:

 

Rose Bowl > Specific Opponent

 

I suppose there are flashier opponents, but the Rose Bowl against a garbage bag is better than anything else. Rose Bowl is essentially the holy grail for a Wisconsin fan.

[DuWayne Steurer]

It's been a few years for a rose bowl, so even though they maybe backed in a little bit with a loss, I think for a lot of Badgers fans, as plush says, this is the holy grail short of making the playoffs.

[owbc]

The Oregon matchup is a good one, I'm looking forward to the game.

[adambr2]

It just feels different this year. The Rose Bowl doesn't have the "we did it" feeling that it used to. Maybe it's because of the CFP. Maybe it's just because we're coming off a loss so you're not going in on that emotional high like Oregon is.

 

Anyway, I do think it's a solid matchup and obviously a great accomplishment regardless of how it feels.

[pacopete4]

It just feels different this year. The Rose Bowl doesn't have the "we did it" feeling that it used to. Maybe it's because of the CFP. Maybe it's just because we're coming off a loss so you're not going in on that emotional high like Oregon is.

 

Anyway, I do think it's a solid matchup and obviously a great accomplishment regardless of how it feels.

 

It’s like making the NIT. It’s second tier now. It’s fine and it’s enjoyable to have a game to watch. But it’s pretty meaningless. I’m sure my wife will enjoy watching the parade though.

[MrTPlush]

It’s never going to feel the same again because odds are if the make the Rose Bowl it means the we’re oh so close to the CFP. Which is somewhat the case this year.

[DuWayne Steurer]

The playoffs have made the ny6 bowl games feel like a consolation prize. Obviously I don't think that was the intent but that's what it is. Everybody in an ny6 bowl game obviously at some point had playoff aspirations. But here we are.

 

Think about the flip side, in the short BCS Championship era when only two teams were selected, we would have had an undefeated returning national champion left out of the title game. It's still not a perfect system but it's better than what we had