Badgers Football 2019

[PeaveyFury]

At this moment, if the Badgers win against OSU, they are projected to have a 44% chance to make the playoff. That seems about right....

[PeaveyFury]

At this moment, if the Badgers win against OSU, they are projected to have a 44% chance to make the playoff. That seems about right....

[brewcrewdue80]

Wonder what the early line on the game is?

I'm guessing Buckeyes by 17 or so.

 

Im going to guess 24.5.

[OldHeidelberg]

There is still a shot that there will be 4 1 or no loss power 5 champs not from the Big 10 so OSU isn't in yet even if you think the Badgers can't hop them. But another way to look at it is if the Badgers win there is a fair chance them and the Buckeys will be the 4th and 5th teams. When you have a head to head matchup between your 4 and 5 teams just 12 hours before it has to mean something, right?

[JosephC]

The best performance by Wisconsin all year. Good luck to the Gophers next year when they won't be able to sneak up on anyone. I don't know how they ever beat Penn State? Wisconsin really exposed them as a major pretender today.

[adambr2]

At this moment, if the Badgers win against OSU, they are projected to have a 44% chance to make the playoff. That seems about right....

 

I don't see it. It's that second loss. Are you in agreement that they aren't taking a 2 loss UW over a 1 loss OSU? If so, they've got to somehow convince the committee to take them over a potential 1 loss Utah or a 1 loss B12 team. And that's assuming that Georgia doesn't beat LSU which probably would all but assure two SEC teams going.

 

I think they're still a lot of unlikely chaos away from even being in the conversation.

[MrTPlush]

There is a 0% chance Wisconsin makes it and a 99% chance Ohio State makes it. No way Ohio State goes from #1 to #5 when they lose to Top 10 Wisconsin by a small margin (if they lost).

 

Your talk Wisconsin at #10(?) to #4 while Ohio State goes from #1 to #5 when we have an additional lose to cruddy Illinois?

 

You could maybe convince me their is a slight chance OSU could drop to #5, but thinking Wisconsin can become #4 is wishing for a Christmas miracle.

 

I just don’t see it. If you need about 5+ things to go right to say “maybe a chance” I promise you...the committee will screw you.

[PeaveyFury]

Why are you guys assuming that OSU doesn’t make it as well?

 

Conditional probability, guys. OSU losing bad enough to fall out of the top four is just one of the possibilities. If Wisconsin wins next week, OSU still has a 39% chance of making it.

 

A Wisconsin win coupled with an Oklahoma loss and a Utah loss says the odds suggest BOTH OSU and Wisconsin making it.

[yourout]

Why are you guys assuming that OSU doesn’t make it as well?

 

Conditional probability, guys. OSU losing bad enough to fall out of the top four is just one of the possibilities. If Wisconsin wins next week, OSU still has a 39% chance of making it.

 

A Wisconsin win coupled with an Oklahoma loss and a Utah loss says the odds suggest BOTH OSU and Wisconsin making it.

 

 

That would be one hell of a Parlay.

[adambr2]

Why are you guys assuming that OSU doesn’t make it as well?

 

Conditional probability, guys. OSU losing bad enough to fall out of the top four is just one of the possibilities. If Wisconsin wins next week, OSU still has a 39% chance of making it.

 

A Wisconsin win coupled with an Oklahoma loss and a Utah loss says the odds suggest BOTH OSU and Wisconsin making it.

 

I understand conditional probability just fine. I'm a numbers guy. I don't know what you mean by your first sentence. I literally said OSU is making it and UW's only shot would be as a 2nd B10 team. I'm not sure you understand what we're saying. We're saying the models are wrong and OSU is in regardless of what happens next week.

[PeaveyFury]

Why are you guys assuming that OSU doesn’t make it as well?

 

Conditional probability, guys. OSU losing bad enough to fall out of the top four is just one of the possibilities. If Wisconsin wins next week, OSU still has a 39% chance of making it.

 

A Wisconsin win coupled with an Oklahoma loss and a Utah loss says the odds suggest BOTH OSU and Wisconsin making it.

 

I understand conditional probability just fine. I'm a numbers guy. I don't know what you mean by your first sentence. I literally said OSU is making it and UW's only shot would be as a 2nd B10 team. I'm not sure you understand what we're saying. We're saying the models are wrong and OSU is in regardless of what happens next week.

 

Go back and read the post directly before mine, where the poster spent the entire post questioning how you could think OSU would drop to 5th for Wisconsin to make it in. I’m not sure you understand that not all responses are directed at you....

[MrTPlush]

I think their chances died when Oklahoma won. You now are assured a one loss Big 12 champion. I think people assume the committee would take Wisconsin over Baylor, but I don’t really see that as obvious. Baylor has a single 3 point loss to Oklahoma and would be beating an elite OSU team to end with one loss.

 

Why would the committee take Wisconsin who has two losses (one dismantling and one bad opponent loss) over a one-loss power five conference champion? Mind you Baylor is already being ranked three spots over us so that already tells you what they think of us comparatively up to this point.

 

If the perfect scenario happened that is being floated around, I would guess the following would happen:

 

1) LSU

2) Clemson

3) Ohio State

4) Baylor

5) Wisconsin

 

Of course all that could happen and not even be #5.

[PeaveyFury]

Yes, the Oklahoma game going final did drop the Badgers odds quite a bit.

[adambr2]

Why are you guys assuming that OSU doesn’t make it as well?

 

Conditional probability, guys. OSU losing bad enough to fall out of the top four is just one of the possibilities. If Wisconsin wins next week, OSU still has a 39% chance of making it.

 

A Wisconsin win coupled with an Oklahoma loss and a Utah loss says the odds suggest BOTH OSU and Wisconsin making it.

 

I understand conditional probability just fine. I'm a numbers guy. I don't know what you mean by your first sentence. I literally said OSU is making it and UW's only shot would be as a 2nd B10 team. I'm not sure you understand what we're saying. We're saying the models are wrong and OSU is in regardless of what happens next week.

 

Go back and read the post directly before mine, where the poster spent the entire post questioning how you could think OSU would drop to 5th for Wisconsin to make it in. I’m not sure you understand that not all responses are directed at you....

 

Yes, I saw his post. You literally used the phrase "you guys," and then "conditional probability, guys", so I had no reason to think you were speaking directly to TPlush.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Can we just revel in the fact we flat out curb-stomped the Gophers and went back to Madison with the Axe instead of posting about a CFP pipedream? In all honesty losing at Illinois quashed any chance the Badgers had at making the 4 team CFP, as it rightfully should given the other potential teams in line for the top 4 slots. LSU, OSU, and Clemson should be in no matter what happens next weekend. I'm thrilled Bama won't be part of the conversation, I'm pumped a Big Ten team is widely considered the best team in the country and a shoe in to make it even if the Badgers shock the world next weekend, and I'm happy to see a reasonably good chance to have teams from 4 separate conferences represented. Nothing would make me happier to upset OSU for the big ten title, then not make the CFP and go win the Rose Bowl, too.

 

I'm also expecting Clemson to remind everyone they won the title last year, and they are damn good. I don't care that their schedule was pretty easy - they are the most talented team in the country and Dabo is doing his best to get them good and pissed off for being slighted by the "experts" ever since their close shave win at UNC a few months ago.

[adambr2]

Even though I think we'll get smoked next week, I'm glad to get another shot at OSU.

 

Beating them would be pretty awesome. I don't expect it to result in a CFP invitation. Going to the Rose Bowl would be pretty great and hopefully that's a possibility either way.

[PinaMadness]

There is no way we get into the CFP. None. I don't know why this is even a point of discussion. Penn State beat Ohio State twice a couple years ago and the Buckeyes still got in over them.

[adambr2]

There is no way we get into the CFP. None. I don't know why this is even a point of discussion. Penn State beat Ohio State twice a couple years ago and the Buckeyes still got in over them.

 

I wouldn't put it as absolute zero, but I would put it a lot less than the 35% from projection models.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-college-football-predictions/

 

Oregon winning the Pac 12 isn't nearly enough. OSU and LSU are in -- look at their overall resumes and dominant wins. There just isn't anything they can do next week to play themselves out of it.

 

Georgia is in with a win and probably the Oklahoma/Baylor winner assuming Oregon wins.

 

You would need a Virginia win over Clemson which is highly unlikely and then hope the committee decides that Clemson doesn't have a sufficient resume as a 1 loss. Then you still need an Oregon win and an LSU win. It's just pretty unrealistic.

 

And to me it's hard to trust a model that puts OSU at 38% if they lose the B10 championship. OSU has clearly been a top 2 team all season and the most dominant in the country. They are not dropping out of the top 4 with a loss.

[OldHeidelberg]

It does look pretty bleak if you can't find a way for the Badgers to get in over Ohio State and that does seem like a long shot. But again just 2 years ago a 2 loss OSU jumped unbeaten UW after beating them by 6 points in the BTCG. I think they were ranked 4 and 6 which is a lot different then say 8 and 1 but the Badgers would be wise to remind everyone of that this week. I think this is a scenario the committee hasn't faced yet but we still need an LSU and Oregon win to even make it a debate. Does the committee weigh in on this stuff when they release the rankings? OSU is just so good it's tough to see them left out, we better blow them out. Maybe they have a let down after 2 big games and feeling like they are in already. A big ten championship and rose bowl trip would be just fine with me.

[MrTPlush]

And yet OSU still didn’t make the playoff. The difference is we had not played each other all year and then did...they won. Probably didn’t help we played no one all year on top of it. Much much easier to flip flop teams in that scenario. This year we have played each other and we got beat easily the first time. So best case we split matchups.

[LouisEly]

The Badgers needed Oklahoma to lose last night to have any chance. Unless Clemson gets destroyed by Virginia, since Clemson doesn't have a win against a currently ranked opponent, but that's highly unlikely.

 

That being said, I'm a really happy Badgers fan today, as curb-stomping Minnesota is a wonderful thing in any season. Assuming another loss to Ohio State, it's between Penn State and UW for the Rose Bowl, and the common opponent test has both beating Michigan at home, both beating Iowa, but one winning at Minnesota and one losing. I think UW is in the Rose Bowl.

[MadThinker88]

..... . Penn State beat Ohio State twice a couple years ago and the Buckeyes still got in over them.

 

Actually it was one 1 game between the teams that year. A close win by PSU at PSU.

PSU went to the B1G championship game & OSU sat at home since both are part of the east division.

While PSU won the B1G they had 2 losses, including 1 vs Pittsburgh.

OSU only had the 1 loss & was then selected for the playoff.

[OldHeidelberg]

I think the rankings this week should tell us where the committee is, if they continue to leave us behind noncontenders like PSU, FL, and AL we have no shot as they are sending a message that any large jump is impossible. If the Badgers are 8 or even 7 there will at least be debate if the Badgers win and a couple of other games fall our way. They did just beat a top ten team on the road but I expect as usual now that the Badgers beat them they must suck so we will end up like #10. I also think we will get shafted by the Rose Bowl if we lose.

[MrTPlush]

I thought about Clemson losing, but everyone is so far up their back end these days would they really leave them out. I thought a lose would knock them out, but most ‘experts’ are saying they don’t even need to win.

 

They remind me a lot of 2017 Wisconsin, didn’t really play anyone. The one difference is Clemson has been murdering opponents the last half of the season. 2017 Wisconsin had nice wins, but wasn’t demolishing teams weekly. Just don’t see a 2 loss team hopping over them.

[adambr2]

I think the rankings this week should tell us where the committee is, if they continue to leave us behind noncontenders like PSU, FL, and AL we have no shot as they are sending a message that any large jump is impossible. If the Badgers are 8 or even 7 there will at least be debate if the Badgers win and a couple of other games fall our way. They did just beat a top ten team on the road but I expect as usual now that the Badgers beat them they must suck so we will end up like #10. I also think we will get shafted by the Rose Bowl if we lose.

 

I don't know who else they are going to take. Maybe PSU. I think whichever one of Wisconsin or PSU doesn't get the Rose Bowl invite will still get a NY6 bowl. Probably the Orange.