Badgers Football 2019

[OnTheBlack]

South Florida was 3-5 in conference last year, 7-5 overall, in a weak conference that only had two teams with less than five losses overall. I don't see how the Badgers aren't favored against them.

 

The Northwestern game last year was a fluke. UW lost three fumbles, and it was Coan's first career start. Northwestern lost their senior QB from last year, and even though they were 8-1 in conference last year they were 9-5 overall and extremely lucky - they were only +14 on point differential for the entire season (UW was +88). Yes, they have a formerly highly ranked recruit who transferred in, but he lost his job and left Clemson for a reason. I don't see why UW is not favored at home.

 

Wisconsin beat Michigan at home two years ago. With Hornibrook as QB. Can't see why they can't do that again. This is the same Michigan State was 7-6 last year. Barely beat Utah State, lost to Arizona State, also lost to Northwestern, only scored 6 points and lost at Nebraska, and barely beat Rutgers. I don't see why UW isn't favored since it's a home game, and I believe Homecoming.

 

I really think there was something funky in the locker room involving Hornibrook last year with either Edwards, the receivers, or both. All reports say that the vibe this year is quite different than last year.

 

Barring lots of key injuries, I think 9-3. Losses to Ohio State, and two of Michigan/@Nebraska/@Minnesota. Sure, they could lose to others, but they could beat Michigan at home just as easily as they could lose to Northwestern or Michigan State.

 

 

I'm with you across the board here...except for the Clemson QB thing. The guy lost his job because he was stuck between a stud QB and then probably the best Freshmen QB in NCAA history and maybe the best talent since Elway...Ever? Hell, I'd trade Rodgers now if we'd be guaranteed to get Lawrence in 2 years.

 

I agree otherwise though. The Badgers are just way too talented to just suddenly drop below .500.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if they won between 8-10 games. 7 would be about the worst I could see them doing.

[LouisEly]

Trevor Lawrence, yes, but Kelly Bryant wasn't anything special and he couldn't beat him out.

[nate82]

Coan named the starter for game one. This was expected and he has had a solid summer in practice. Mertz was the obvious sexy pick to start at QB but he is a freshman and most don't start their first year. I am not disappointed in Mertz not starting just want to see what the hype was about and if he can live up to that hype.

[PeaveyFury]

I also think this is the correct choice. There's a chance Mertz Bollingers his way into the starting role later in the year, but hopefully Coan takes the job and runs with it.

[OnTheBlack]

Trevor Lawrence, yes, but Kelly Bryant wasn't anything special and he couldn't beat him out.

 

Ok, I agree with you about the Badgers and I don't want to spend too much time in the Weeds here, but Hunter Johnson was a 5 star recruit...the top ranked QB in the country. He went to Clemson after they'd won the National Title, Bryant won the job his Freshmen year and he took his team to the playoffs again. Then Lawrence, one of the most highly touted Prep prospects ever comes and commits to Clemson and he shows up half way through Johnson's freshmen year(Lawrence started school in December).

 

So I don't know if you can really point at Northwestern's QB situation and say "there's a reason he transferred," and assume they're going to be worse there. Several of the best QB's in the NFL right now transferred including...what, 3 top picks in Newton, Murray and Mayfield, Rodgers transferred, The Badgers best QB was a transfer.

 

Plus...Kelly Bryant was a pretty good QB. He went 16-2 as a duel threat QB. But again, it'd be like if we got this all-world recruit this year who arrived in December and was obviously better than Mertz and Mertz decided to transfer. It wouldn't really be on Mertz or because Mertz wasn't good. It's more because of the guys ahead of him.

 

Kinda like Fields, another Big10 transfer. I mean, there's a reason he transferred. But it's a pretty good reason. Nobody can take down Fromm!

[homer]

Badgers just scored a commit from a TE whose final four were UW, Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State. Also had offers from Michigan, LSU, Penn St, Notre Dame.

[MrTPlush]

Translation he probably picked playing time.

[homer]

Translation he probably picked playing time.

 

 

LOL. ok.

[JosephC]

And once again the Badgers just ignore the star ratings. When Kayden Lyles moved back to offense, it was just assumed that he would be starting at one of the guard spots. He would have rated as the #1 guy in their 2017 class.

 

Starting left guard = Jason Erdmann

Starting right guard = Josh Seltzner

Chryst says the Badgers will rotate Lyles in, but it appears that the two former walk-on's will be starting and get the bulk of the playing time.

[MrTPlush]

Translation he probably picked playing time.

 

 

LOL. ok.

 

Sorry if that offends you? I am guessing most of those teams already have a few nice recruits at the position and/or a bunch of high end WRs to throw to. Wisconsin only has Ferguson and while they have a few intriguing WRs they are nothing like the athletes the elite teams trot out there. It’s no insult to Wisconsin, just the reality of why recruits don’t take offers from elite schools.

 

I just think it’s a super misleading statement. He was the #14 ranked TE in his class and many of those top tier teams seem to gives offers out to half the US population.

[RollieTime]

I think it could have to do with the Badgers getting Mertz as well. Wouldn’t surprise me if the Badgers start passing a little more than they have in the past since they actually have a couple guys capable of doing so. Plus, Wisconsin is a fantastic college town. There are guys out there that grow up dreaming to play college ball for Madison. He could be one of those guys.

[homer]

Translation he probably picked playing time.

 

 

LOL. ok.

 

Sorry if that offends you? I am guessing most of those teams already have a few nice recruits at the position and/or a bunch of high end WRs to throw to. Wisconsin only has Ferguson and while they have a few intriguing WRs they are nothing like the athletes the elite teams trot out there. It’s no insult to Wisconsin, just the reality of why recruits don’t take offers from elite schools.

 

I just think it’s a super misleading statement. He was the #14 ranked TE in his class and many of those top tier teams seem to gives offers out to half the US population.

 

It doesn't offend me. But you have a knack for knocking down any good news. It's kind of predictably amusing.

[MrTPlush]

I think it could have to do with the Badgers getting Mertz as well. Wouldn’t surprise me if the Badgers start passing a little more than they have in the past since they actually have a couple guys capable of doing so. Plus, Wisconsin is a fantastic college town. There are guys out there that grow up dreaming to play college ball for Madison. He could be one of those guys.

 

I was kind of hoping Mertz could have attracted a notable WR, unfortunately that has not happened. Actually between 2019 and 2020 they only have one WR recruit and he is a Wisconsin native. Surprises me a touch.

 

And for what it is worth when it comes to TEs I like 2019 recruit Hayden Rucci more. He has added a ton of weight in the offseason and I haven't seen him post that, but the video I saw from prior he looked really impressive and exactly what Wisco looks for.

 

Also Cam Large quote:

 

“They utilize the tight end unlike any other team in the country,” Large told Rivals.com. “They live in ‘12’ personnel (packages) and they’re one of the only teams in the country that still uses ‘13’ personnel (packages), so I’d be getting on the field a lot and getting a lot of experience.

[tmwiese55]

Yea spinning it that way is just negative imo. So, if he picks the big name schools it 'see we can't hang with the big boys', if he picks us 'well it's more PT because the others have better players'. Can't win. Don't get me wrong, path to playing time is often a part of any recruits choice but to immediately spin it negatively seems a bit much. It's essentially on the staff to sell them on why UW is a better fit, in a situation like this I would think they could play that card well since Ferguson will be almost done. So they did exactly what they're supposed to do. Plus as the last post shows, if you're a TE Wisconsin should be a very good spot to to set yourself up for the NFL as we use a pro style offense, feature the TE, and have had multiple TEs with success recently in the NFL.

[MrTPlush]

I think you guys are spinning it negatively yourselves. Because really, I wasn't. For some reason you guys are making picking a school based on playing time as some kind of negative/insult to the selected school. In reality it is probably one of the main recruiting tactics a second tier school can use. When I saw said tweet my initial observation was "he picked playing time" because that is usually the case when someone ranked 10+ deep at their position goes for a second tier school. It isn't like when Mertz picked Wisconsin and he arguably could have gone to an elite school and eventually been "the guy".

 

I don't really care though, I care more about how good a player is, not who the other 10+ teams willing to offer him a scholarship when some of those teams seem to toss out 100+ offers. In my opinion Ferguson and Rucci are both better than him. I nice pipeline of TE talent for years to come as it stands and that doesn't even consider a few less noteworthy guys they added in the 2019 class.

[tmwiese55]

Seems we may have read to much into the abrupt (can't think of better word) type tone of the initial post and took it imply more than you meant, no worries.

 

Note, I would actually say this was likely a big part for Mertz too. Yea he could've taken offers from anyone but he knows each one of them is bringing in another top ranked guy each year. WI, probably not so much so he knows he's going to be here for 4-5 years as opposed to potentially having to transfer and all that BS

[HiAndTight]

Translation he probably picked playing time.

 

 

LOL. ok.

 

Sorry if that offends you? I am guessing most of those teams already have a few nice recruits at the position and/or a bunch of high end WRs to throw to. Wisconsin only has Ferguson and while they have a few intriguing WRs they are nothing like the athletes the elite teams trot out there. It’s no insult to Wisconsin, just the reality of why recruits don’t take offers from elite schools.

 

I just think it’s a super misleading statement. He was the #14 ranked TE in his class and many of those top tier teams seem to gives offers out to half the US population.

 

 

It's more obnoxious than it is offensive. If he'd have gone to Alabama, he'd be a stud. But since he's coming to UW, it's just because he wouldn't be able to play at all those elite programs that end up with elite recruiting classes year after year after year.

 

Also, it's not JUST that he turned down those schools, it's that those schools are throwing out so many scholarships that I guess it diminishes him again? So basically, you would win any debate because you've already argued all sides of it. He comes to UW, well, if he's good, he only did it because of playing time. But he's probably not that good because those schools offer so many people scholarship offers.

 

I'm curious what your basis for how recruits choose schools comes from? Especially at a position like TE where multiple guys can play and at schools like Alabama, ND and the like who routinely churn out NFL caliber players who leave school early? Please don't suggest it's not an insult to Wisconsin. That's absolutely what it is.

 

And it's easy and simplistic to say they give out offers to half the population, but you don't get all the top programs offering on a player unless he's a very highly regarded player.

[HiAndTight]

 

It doesn't offend me. But you have a knack for knocking down any good news. It's kind of predictably amusing.

 

 

It offends me. It also offends me to have UW called a "2nd tier" school.

 

It also baffles me how we already have a fully formed opinion of how a player we've never seen play ranks with another player we've never seen play and then a TE who's a Redshirt Soph and getting a lot of early draft buzz. Or how naive we can be to think that deciding where you're going to spend the next 4-5 years of your life, we're you're going to go to school, the most important decision of your life up until this point is as simplistic as "playing time." And simply pointing out that a guy said, "they run a lot formations with 12 personnel is next to meaningless when you're talking about Alabama and ND, both schools that do exactly that. We're not talking about spread option type schools.

 

I'd hope Ferguson would be "better" than him at the moment. Really just closing your eyes and tossing a dart at the wall would be more productive in guessing how he will eventually compare with other TE's who've yet to play and who we haven't seen.

 

Also, I'm really conflicted about how I feel about the Badgers 3 ESPN 300 recruits now. None of the big schools who offer scholarships to "half the population," offered them.

 

 

But it's like Homer said, it's not even this single post. It's just kinda the tone no matter what the news is.

[MrTPlush]

Lol I think you guys need to lighten up. I won’t even waste my time responding to posts that infer more than I even said and are mostly just putting words in my mouth.

 

The first game is tomorrow, hopefully it will give more to talk about than overanalyzing one post.

[tmwiese55]

Yup, I acknowledged I read too much into the initial post and HT's probably added to me taking it that way. No worries, I get what you mean.

 

I'm still a bit worried about the team but with all the reports and info I'm seeing I'm starting to get cautiously optimistic that Coan is going to be good/fine or at least an improvement to Horni thus hopefully fixing or improving our blah offense (relative to previous) of the last few years since PC came back. Still in kind of believe it when I see it type mode but starting to feel better than I did 3 months ago. At least only another day to see.

 

Spread down to 11.5. I think it was 14ish the last I looked a week or so back, but I could be remembering wrong. Think comfortable to bet UW on that but no way I'd call it a lock.

[MrTPlush]

I’m excited to see how the defense fares. It’s hard to really gauge expectations on a defensive unit games get under way. I don’t want to say the defense was bad last year, but it certainly felt disappointing. We all like to talk about the offense, but the defense is what could really make this team special. Really hoping the secondary takes a step forward with some experience.

 

And of course one can hope for a balanced offensive attack. The struggles at QB last year seemed to really kill the creativity of Chryst. It got painfully predictable on offense last year.

[JosephC]

The tackling by last year's secondary was the worst I could ever remember out of a Badger defense. Frankly, the tackling from the defensive backs looked to be at the same woeful level as most NFL teams. Hopefully that won't be a yearly occurrence in the "NFL defense" that Leonhard had brought to Madison.

[homer]

The tackling by last year's secondary was the worst I could ever remember out of a Badger defense. Frankly, the tackling from the defensive backs looked to be at the same woeful level as most NFL teams. Hopefully that won't be a yearly occurrence in the "NFL defense" that Leonhard had brought to Madison.

 

They were amazing tacklers the year prior. Some guys can do it some cant. I think a lot of last year's issues were that the D Line was more or less a sieve.

[MrTPlush]

It is almost impressive the defense wasn't worse on the scoreboard last year. I compared some 2017/2018 stats:

 

2017:

 

For Loss: 90

Sacks: 42

INT: 20

Fumbles Forced: 12

6+ Sack Players: 3

 

2018:

For Loss: 62 31% Drop

Sacks: 18 57% Drop

INT: 14 30% Drop

Fumbles Forced:12

6+ Sack Players: ZERO

 

And the culprit? Pretty much the D-Line as mentioned. A lot of sacks came from that D-Line and in 2018 you can pretty much see they did nothing. Van Ginkel accounted for nearly 33% of their sacks. Tackles for a loss also not a pretty sight.

 

That is what gives me pause on the defense. It has lost a ton of pass rushing talent the last two years. Hopefully guys can step up this year and fill some of the lost void. Obviously the defensive line obviously needs to be a lot more physical past just getting to the QB.

[tmwiese55]

Agreed. The D Line was all new players after losing so many experienced players, plus it got big time injured. there's a trickle down effect that comes from that which hurts all levels of D. My biggest is also the pass rush OLBs. They've had beast there for years with Van Ginkel being the last one. Will new ones step up? They seem to be really hyping that Green-May kid. I was never too sure at his size if he'd be D Line or OLB. So hopefully at his size he still has the speed to really get after it OLB like the Watts, Biegels, Ginkles, Jacobs, etc have done for years.

 

Check out the defensive depth chart though. Only two SR starters and only two others in the two deep. And no one I'd project to leave early. Tons of FR/SO starting. Hopefully D is solid this year but could be really special in the next few years if things go their way. Definitely want to see things back to the heavy heavy blitzing that seemed to go down last year. I assume they just tried to play more conservative due to all the injuries.