Badgers Football 2019

[MrTPlush]

From a emotional standpoint there are certainly countless other losses that were worse. Losing to Illinois may have robbed them of a of a chance at the CFP, but I’m sure most knew that was a lofty dream anyway. Of course the hurtful nature of that loss will likely lessen after they lose two more games and it ends up a moot point to their CFP dreams. For starters the 2017 loss to OSU is miles worse just because they literally were playing for a spot in the CFP and lost a close game.

 

From an upset standpoint...hard to find worse.

[PeaveyFury]

 

From an upset standpoint...hard to find worse.

 

Again, not really. That Cincinnati loss in 1999 was horrendous. #9 Wisconsin team, likely caught looking ahead to a two top-10 teams match up with Michigan the next week. Cincinnati was a MAC team coming off a 2-9 season in '98, and had lost to a D2 team the week before.

 

Sure, this is a bad one, possibly the worst in some time. But to call it the 'worst ever' is just recency bias.

 

Edit: And how quickly do we forget that just LAST SEASON #6 Wisconsin lost AT HOME to 22- point underdog BYU in a game where it wasn’t a last second FG that put BYU ahead, it was actually UW that was chasing from behind.

[MrTPlush]

 

From an upset standpoint...hard to find worse.

 

Again, not really. That Cincinnati loss in 1999 was horrendous. #9 Wisconsin team, likely caught looking ahead to a two top-10 teams match up with Michigan the next week. Cincinnati was a MAC team coming off a 2-9 season in '98, and had lost to a D2 team the week before.

 

Sure, this is a bad one, possibly the worst in some time. But to call it the 'worst ever' is just recency bias.

 

Edit: And how quickly do we forget that just LAST SEASON #6 Wisconsin lost AT HOME to 22- point underdog BYU in a game where it wasn’t a last second FG that put BYU ahead, it was actually UW that was chasing from behind.

 

31 point underdogs right? Okay, find worse. BYU was 22 points.

 

It isn’t recency bias. It’s using one of the only ways to quantify how big an upset was. It’s a pretty relevant claim that some people have made.

[PeaveyFury]

31 point underdogs right? Okay, find worse. BYU was 22 points.

 

It isn’t recency bias. It’s using one of the only ways to quantify how big an upset was. It’s a pretty relevant claim that some people have made.

 

If that historical data was available, I think it's possible that there'd be worse out there. And there is so much more to the importance of a loss than the point spread set by Las Vegas, which is what others and I am saying.

 

To borrow a phrase from Ron Wolf, this loss is a fart in the wind that will be remembered about as unremarkably as the loss to BYU a couple of years from now.

[pacopete4]

 

To borrow a phrase from Ron Wolf, this loss is a fart in the wind that will be remembered about as unremarkably as the loss to BYU a couple of years from now.

 

All depends on how the rest of the season plays out. NFL losses are a bit different from NCAA losses. Especially if you are a Wisconsin team as most people don't believe in them, and sometimes rightfully so.

[MrTPlush]

31 point underdogs right? Okay, find worse. BYU was 22 points.

 

It isn’t recency bias. It’s using one of the only ways to quantify how big an upset was. It’s a pretty relevant claim that some people have made.

 

If that historical data was available, I think it's possible that there'd be worse out there. And there is so much more to the importance of a loss than the point spread set by Las Vegas, which is what others and I am saying.

 

To borrow a phrase from Ron Wolf, this loss is a fart in the wind that will be remembered about as unremarkably as the loss to BYU a couple of years from now.

 

No one claimed it did. No one said it was the worst upset ever and started printing T-Shirts. I think it is quite fair for people to think it is from an upset standpoint. So you are arguing something that doesn't relate to what your opinion of "worst loss" is. I also already said many times ago that there are definitely numerous losses that are more emotional gut punches so to speak. I also already said this loss will be really irrelevant in that sense after they lose 2+ more games.

 

Like....I literally already said all of that. I am not sure why you are telling me.

[tmwiese55]

The loss was embarrassing. They were 30+ favorites, on the fringe of the CFP field of four, came in undefeated, and some are labeling it the worst upset in Wisconsin history. I could go on......

 

If that wasn’t embarrassing...nothing is embarrassing to you I’d guess. It is what it is...but let’s not try to sugar coat it.

 

People calling it the worst loss in Wisconsin history clearly aren't old enough to remember the loss to Minnesota in 1993 that probably prevented them from ACTUALLY winning a National Championship, or a horrendous loss to Cincy in 1999 that may have done the same.

 

I doubt anyone at that time thought Alvarez 'might not be the right guy for the job', though. Again, I think the fan base for Wisconsin sports has become spoiled and fairly intolerant of normal losses that happen on occasion to most programs. We only think it happens to Wisconsin, though, for some reason.

 

I fully acknowledge this is a massively embarrassing loss, no reason to sugar coat it imo. But, I think the bolded sentence is spot on in general. Just like when every fan expects the UW QB to never miss a throw because they're used to watching Rodgers. While forgetting even Rodgers misses throws. It's like folks don't watch other college games and see blown throws happen all day.

 

Upsets happen, it's not always some grand signal or indictment on a coach or program. The other team is trying to win as well. Can point to probably six different plays late in that game that if they go our way, we escape and move on. Pretty much everyone but Bama has been stung by a crappy team they shouldn't lose to. These Clemson super teams of the last few years lost to Pitt in Clemson as 28 pt faves. They also lost at Syracuse as 24 pt faves. Someone else listed the OSU ones. It happens. I remember the USC dynasty lost to Oregon ST as huge favorites a few times, I think once as a 35 pt fave on a Thursday night. Also lost to Washington who was awful back then.

 

Ceiling/expectations: Prior to season I was skeptical due to last year. Going into this ILL game and with how the D had looked. I expected a loss to OSU and to win the rest. Leading to a rematch vs OSU or PSU in the title game. Likely a loss to OSU but who knows, if you pull out the 33% chance upset you're in the Playoff. If you lose, you're likely in the RB. Then win the RB vs a likely beatable Oregon or Was team.

[HiAndTight]

For the record I have never been a huge Chryst fan. So it’s not over one loss.

 

That actually seems worse, somehow. It seems like the people who dislike Chryst didn't like him being hired in the first place, and his fairly significant amount of success as a coach has done nothing to change that opinion, for some reason.

 

 

I'm genuinely curious who "that guy," is that people think the Badgers could hire who could take us to the next level?

 

I expected some overreaction to the loss, but I really didn't see this loss getting blamed on Chryst. I'd like to hear one single realistic name thrown out that. Who is the better coach the Badgers could get. Lincoln Riley isn't leaving Oklahoma to come to Madison. You MIGHT be able to steal a coordinator who's already recruiting elite talent from a school like Alabama, UGA, Clemson...and if they have the type of success Chryst has had, another school will hire them away in a few years(and they almost certainly won't be better than Chryst, just different.)

 

 

The Badgers have the perfect coach for them in place right now. There is no coach who's going to elevate them to Alabama, UGA type status. A great year for us is when we're a top 20 recuirting class. That's just about the worst case scenario for most of the elite programs. And it's not because they just don't try. We don't have the same pool of talent to recruit from or the same money to spend.

[tmwiese55]

Exactly. THe biggest knock on PC coming in was being worried about recruiting due to his personality, but he's actually done much better at it than we thought coming in. This is the best recruiting run we've ever had. Everything is set up very well in that sense, they just have figure why the O isn't going yet. The D is playing all underclassmen from that good recruiting.

[owbc]

Why is everyone still talking about last week? These upsets happen all the time. Nothing about the Wisconsin program has changed between today and a week ago. I had completely forgotten that Purdue beat Ohio State by 29 points last year. OSU still won the Rose Bowl.

 

Plus we're bowl eligible so in some ways the season was already a success ;-)

[MrTPlush]

I am okay missing the Rose Bowl, I would prefer next year anyway.

[Samurai Bucky]

I am okay missing the Rose Bowl, I would prefer next year anyway.

Sans JT23?

[tmwiese55]

I am okay missing the Rose Bowl, I would prefer next year anyway.

Sans JT23?

 

Every other aspect of the team should be better next year though. And as good as JT is I think we've all learned how replaceable RBs are. That said, it's not like Watson is massively impressive or anything yet and of course whoever it is will not be as good as JT. The other RB who's true fresh this year is redshirting due to injury, he's the one I thought would be the next 'star' but he got hurt senior year and still is, so who knows there.

[MrTPlush]

I am okay missing the Rose Bowl, I would prefer next year anyway.

Sans JT23?

 

I was half joking (Rose Bowl is a CFP game next year, I believe), but I don’t see why next years team can’t be better than this years record wise.

 

Since the Badgers make OSU/Penn State games essential auto losses not having them in the regular season is big. Next years Big 10 schedule is pretty easy at face value and the non conference schedule isn’t very daunting depending on how Notre Dame is.

 

Going into next year I would be optimistic of a 2017-like season.

 

BUT I don’t want to to assume this team is losing this weekend (and again after that)...yet. Nor do I want to go into a whole breakdown of next year when this team still has a lot to play for.

 

BACK TO 2019 WE GO

[yourout]

Let's flip the script.

What is the biggest upset win in Badgers history?

 

A win Saturday would be right up there in my eyes.

[owbc]

Let's flip the script.

What is the biggest upset win in Badgers history?

 

A win Saturday would be right up there in my eyes.

 

I’m shocked at the spread. OSU by 14? No way.

[MrTPlush]

Hard to really find a true upset...like really surprising win. They are just too consistent and rarely a bottom feeder. It also doesn’t help in recent years Ohio State/Penn State own them. There goes 99% of your chance at an upset. Then before those teams became powerhouses of today (more than they were before) Michigan handily dominated us. Any time we beat those teams in the 90s or early 2000s they were usually not highly ranked and/or having a down year. Just very rarely have we beat one of them and not been really really good ourselves.

 

2010 Ohio State win is probably up there. #1 team mid season (so no fluky 2016 LSU ranking) and we were #18 going into the game. Even at home that’s impressive and we ended up their lone loss over the entire course of the season. Of course we ended up ranking just two spots behind them at the end of the year.

 

Probably more of a compliment than an insult that I can’t think/find any big upset wins we had. Not exactly something you want to be doing because that means you are notably worse than your opponents.

 

If they win Saturday I think I would tab it higher than the previous win vs. Ohio State, simply because we are coming off such a horrendous loss to Illinois. There is little optimism after that.

[HiAndTight]

Let's flip the script.

What is the biggest upset win in Badgers history?

 

A win Saturday would be right up there in my eyes.

 

I’m shocked at the spread. OSU by 14? No way.

 

 

I don't know, what would you put it at? This OSU team looks better than past versions in my opinion. Fields is just a perfect CFB QB. He's like a Lamar Jackson...they've got a great running game, great players across the board.

 

I think UW has a chance, but I don't think that's really an unfair line.

[HiAndTight]

Hard to really find a true upset...like really surprising win. They are just too consistent and rarely a bottom feeder. It also doesn’t help in recent years Ohio State/Penn State own them. There goes 99% of your chance at an upset. Then before those teams became powerhouses of today (more than they were before) Michigan handily dominated us. Any time we beat those teams in the 90s or early 2000s they were usually not highly ranked and/or having a down year. Just very rarely have we beat one of them and not been really really good ourselves.

 

2010 Ohio State win is probably up there. #1 team mid season (so no fluky 2016 LSU ranking) and we were #18 going into the game. Even at home that’s impressive and we ended up their lone loss over the entire course of the season. Of course we ended up ranking just two spots behind them at the end of the year.

 

Probably more of a compliment than an insult that I can’t think/find any big upset wins we had. Not exactly something you want to be doing because that means you are notably worse than your opponents.

 

If they win Saturday I think I would tab it higher than the previous win vs. Ohio State, simply because we are coming off such a horrendous loss to Illinois. There is little optimism after that.

 

 

Does anyone give Illinois any credit for that game? They usually recruit pretty well. Watching that game, there was no doubt to me that UW was more talented, but also that Illinios was much-MUCH more talented that their record and performance to date suggested. That second half vs Michigan really propelled them to that UW win. I did not read the game thread, so I don't know what people were saying. I just remember watching Coan throw that last pass and when he let it go, I thought he made a great throw and floated that over that flat defender and the Illinois guy just made a play. But mainly I thought their defensive front looked good and that MLB'er looked like a stud.

 

 

Anyway, I wouldn't put this up there for biggest upset, but what about the year Lee Evans had that ~80 yard TD catch late in the game to beat top ranked OSU? I think it was like 2002, 2003? That, the Purdue game where I wanna say it was Jamar Fletcher who forced a fumble vs that Drew Brees led Purdue team. Again, not an upset like the one we just suffered, but incredible wins.

[HiAndTight]

Exactly. THe biggest knock on PC coming in was being worried about recruiting due to his personality, but he's actually done much better at it than we thought coming in. This is the best recruiting run we've ever had. Everything is set up very well in that sense, they just have figure why the O isn't going yet. The D is playing all underclassmen from that good recruiting.

 

 

I don't really agree that the Offense isn't going yet. I think the offense has been fine, we've just had a very inconsistent QB. That's everything. If you don't have a dependable QB, you're not going to have a dependable offense. But it's got nothing to do with scheme or anything the HC can do. The Badgers and Hornibrook were pretty good two years ago when they lost just one game by 6 points.

 

The pound the ball...they've done that very well with Taylor. And they have recruited very well. They're in the midst of a recruiting "boon" relative to where they normally recruit. But I've been called a homer before by some on this board...and I think it might just come down to this, as much as I love UW, they just aren't ever going to be able to put the athletes on the field that the top tier teams will. Look at our recruiting classes. Our top DB's usually come out of Florida and we're certainly not getting the 4 and 5 star guys. We dip into New Jersey once in a while, but again, we're not getting the blue chip guys. We're recruiting mostly the mid-west and the talent just isn't there, and if it is, it's in the two biggest states, Penn and Ohio and one isn't really the mid-west, but both have blue chip programs there.

 

So maybe people need to adjust expectations. If you expect the Badgers to be a dominant program....you're gonna be upset when they lose to Iowa or Northwestern and then have some really ugly losses like the BYU loss(which I actually agree was a worse loss than the Illinios loss, point spread aside). Again, short of a Phil Knight coming in and helping us build up top tier facilities and fund the program....we're pretty much bumping up against the ceiling this program has.

 

What's more, given the choice between a Kirby Smart type coach...a guy who lets just assume he can bring the recruits he's gotten with him to Madison, we get him for...4-5 years. And if we do win a National Title or get into a few playoff's, he's going to be the guy who leaves for 'Bama when Saban leaves or he's the guy that A&M is going to pay 90 million to.

 

The way the Badgers athletic department is set up, we're never paying a coach 9.3 million like Dabo is getting paid. We're maxing out around 3 million and if we do that, we're not paying our assistants as much. So not only do I think Chryst is a good coach, I wouldn't trade him for any other coach in the country. Not Saban who is near the end, not Dabo who's in a perfect place and who will probably leave for his Alma mater(Alabama) if he ever leaves. Not even Lincoln Riley as he's also a short term coach who will use Wisconsin as a stepping stone. I'll take my chances with 15 years of Paul Chryst and see if we can't put together one of those lucky years like we ALMOST did when JJ and Russ Wilson just missed each other. Or the chances we MIGHT have if Graham Mertz ends up being as good as expected.

 

We're a consistent top 15 program with recruiting classes that usually rank on the high end at 35-ish and are often now in the top 40. Now we're looking at being ~20?

 

Look back at Taylor. He wasn't even the highest rated Taylor in the Badgers class. AJ Taylor was a higher rated recruit and we only had to beat out Rutgers for Johnathon Taylor. So we do so much more with our talent than so many programs. Part of that is being in one of the weakest divisions in all of CFB's conferences, but...I'm not gonna apologize for that.

 

The only way we consistently get into OSU territory is if we can start getting ESPN 300 skill players and put the type of speed on the field that OSU does AND keep doing everything else we do. And I just don't see top 10 corners consistently coming to UW or elite WR'ers. How many legit lock down corners have we had at UW? Fletcher and....Vincent? Nelson looked really good for a year, but we don't get many. We have young talent now, but I don't see future 1st rounders.

 

Ohio State is pumping out guys like Humphrey, Conley, Lattimore and they're coming back and producing more 1st the next year.

 

That Illinois loss hurt and stung. I love Wisconsin. It's been great for me. But on balance, I'm thrilled with where the program is and still excited about the rest of this season.

[MrTPlush]

I don’t think anyone is saying Illinois didn’t play a great game, but it still is no game they had business losing. The last two Big 10 teams literally ran over Illinois running the ball. Then we come in and Jonathan Taylor struggles to 4.6 yards a carry...the worst average by any starter has had against Illinois in Big 10 play. I mean....that doesn’t look good. Every other Big 10 team has lit up the Illinois defense, we nearly score 23 points. Eastern Michigan scored more against Illinois and UConn scored the same amount as us.

 

I think when your offense pretty much depends on the RB you run into problems. Taylor has been human three games, Northwestern, Michigan State, and Illinois. Michigan State the other runners ended up making it still a ground game slaughtering, but the other two the running game wasn’t very good.

 

In those two games the run game has struggled the ball was put into the hands of Jack Coan and the Northwestern game he wasn’t very good. The Illinois game he was pretty competent until that INT. I went back and checked just to make sure, but in my opinion that INT was a real bad throw/decision. It’s interesting both his INTs come in games where the run game didn’t do well. Not saying Coan isn’t the guy, but it seems he isn’t going to help us win games. You are basically just hoping he doesn’t turn the ball over. I get that is an improvement over Horni, but not sure that is saying much. Again, I have been pleased with Coan, but something I would like to see him do down the stretch is make a big impact on a game when the run game just isn’t working.

[tmwiese55]

 

Exactly. THe biggest knock on PC coming in was being worried about recruiting due to his personality, but he's actually done much better at it than we thought coming in. This is the best recruiting run we've ever had. Everything is set up very well in that sense, they just have figure why the O isn't going yet. The D is playing all underclassmen from that good recruiting.

 

 

I don't really agree that the Offense isn't going yet. I think the offense has been fine, we've just had a very inconsistent QB. That's everything. If you don't have a dependable QB, you're not going to have a dependable offense. But it's got nothing to do with scheme or anything the HC can do. The Badgers and Hornibrook were pretty good two years ago when they lost just one game by 6 points.

 

The pound the ball...they've done that very well with Taylor. And they have recruited very well. They're in the midst of a recruiting "boon" relative to where they normally recruit. But I've been called a homer before by some on this board...and I think it might just come down to this, as much as I love UW, they just aren't ever going to be able to put the athletes on the field that the top tier teams will. Look at our recruiting classes. Our top DB's usually come out of Florida and we're certainly not getting the 4 and 5 star guys. We dip into New Jersey once in a while, but again, we're not getting the blue chip guys. We're recruiting mostly the mid-west and the talent just isn't there, and if it is, it's in the two biggest states, Penn and Ohio and one isn't really the mid-west, but both have blue chip programs there.

 

So maybe people need to adjust expectations. If you expect the Badgers to be a dominant program....you're gonna be upset when they lose to Iowa or Northwestern and then have some really ugly losses like the BYU loss(which I actually agree was a worse loss than the Illinios loss, point spread aside). Again, short of a Phil Knight coming in and helping us build up top tier facilities and fund the program....we're pretty much bumping up against the ceiling this program has.

 

What's more, given the choice between a Kirby Smart type coach...a guy who lets just assume he can bring the recruits he's gotten with him to Madison, we get him for...4-5 years. And if we do win a National Title or get into a few playoff's, he's going to be the guy who leaves for 'Bama when Saban leaves or he's the guy that A&M is going to pay 90 million to.

 

The way the Badgers athletic department is set up, we're never paying a coach 9.3 million like Dabo is getting paid. We're maxing out around 3 million and if we do that, we're not paying our assistants as much. So not only do I think Chryst is a good coach, I wouldn't trade him for any other coach in the country. Not Saban who is near the end, not Dabo who's in a perfect place and who will probably leave for his Alma mater(Alabama) if he ever leaves. Not even Lincoln Riley as he's also a short term coach who will use Wisconsin as a stepping stone. I'll take my chances with 15 years of Paul Chryst and see if we can't put together one of those lucky years like we ALMOST did when JJ and Russ Wilson just missed each other. Or the chances we MIGHT have if Graham Mertz ends up being as good as expected.

 

We're a consistent top 15 program with recruiting classes that usually rank on the high end at 35-ish and are often now in the top 40. Now we're looking at being ~20?

 

Look back at Taylor. He wasn't even the highest rated Taylor in the Badgers class. AJ Taylor was a higher rated recruit and we only had to beat out Rutgers for Johnathon Taylor. So we do so much more with our talent than so many programs. Part of that is being in one of the weakest divisions in all of CFB's conferences, but...I'm not gonna apologize for that.

 

The only way we consistently get into OSU territory is if we can start getting ESPN 300 skill players and put the type of speed on the field that OSU does AND keep doing everything else we do. And I just don't see top 10 corners consistently coming to UW or elite WR'ers. How many legit lock down corners have we had at UW? Fletcher and....Vincent? Nelson looked really good for a year, but we don't get many. We have young talent now, but I don't see future 1st rounders.

 

Ohio State is pumping out guys like Humphrey, Conley, Lattimore and they're coming back and producing more 1st the next year.

 

That Illinois loss hurt and stung. I love Wisconsin. It's been great for me. But on balance, I'm thrilled with where the program is and still excited about the rest of this season.

 

 

Agree with your overall view of the program and its level and expectations. Pretty much exactly my view.

 

I wouldn't agree that since PC has gotten here that the offense has been good enough though. You use 2017 as an example, again that was all D. The O was nothing special that year. You're right that it comes down to QB play, but again after 5 years that should be fixed. But yes that's also why the O has improved this year vs the last few, the QB is just clearly better. So trendign better and of course Coan and Mertz are great recruits. But if you rewind to what PC was doing here as OC (and what his Os did as HC in Pitt) vs what the O has been since he's been back and it's not back to that area. Besides the QB play as you said being poor with Horni I just don't see the dominating O-Line of the 09-Gordon type era. The running lanes and just overpowering teams no matter how many in the box was different then. This is where I keep coming back to Bostad going back to O line. Prior to ILL I was starting to think the pass blocking had gone way up this year vs the last few years, but they struggled bad that game so we'll see how they do vs OSU. I agree the O has gone up a tick this year vs the last few but I think there's clearly another level or two to go. Trending right direction, but I think some OLine improvement to our old standards is still easily attainable. My other O nitpick is that almost all passing comes from spread shotgun now so you're not taking advantage of the huge advantage our run game provides.

 

For the line, I think 14 is the right number. OSU has slaughtered everyone this year, you set that at 9.5 and 90% of the money is coming on OSU. I'd guess above 50% still comes on OSU even at 14. Put it up to 17 and I think vast majority go UW. I'm trying to pay for my trip by betting on OSU. That classic 'buy a win' type thing where if UW wins, great I'm happy. If OSU covers the 14 well at least I got my money. Not lookingn forward to the 10 pt loss that kills both ways though, haha. One thing is that since OSU has basically covered every game and half all year is that they're kind of due to not.

[wildcat83]

 

Every other aspect of the team should be better next year though.

 

LB ???

 

I fully agree that next year's team could be better all things considered. We will essentially lose 4 or 5 impact players, which is a really small hit. I even made a post earlier in the thread about the lack of seniors this year. However, Orr and Baun are going to be tough to replace and presumably get better. Those are two really good football players and make up half of the LB core.

[tmwiese55]

Those are the only 2 players they lose on D. LB is also the strongest area we recruit with guys ready to step in. Chenal is sitting there ready to step in and kill it. But yea I could see an argument for LB being slightly down, but overall D should be better. Only lose two other seniors in the 2 deep.

[MrTPlush]

 

Every other aspect of the team should be better next year though.

 

LB ???

 

I fully agree that next year's team could be better all things considered. We will essentially lose 4 or 5 impact players, which is a really small hit. I even made a post earlier in the thread about the lack of seniors this year. However, Orr and Baun are going to be tough to replace and presumably get better. Those are two really good football players and make up half of the LB core.

 

I mentioned before the season, but I mentioned how much the LB performance declined from 2017 to 2018. Going off of sacks it was 42 in 2017 down to 19 in 2018 (yikes). That number from 2018 got even scarier when you consider only 6 or so of those were from players going to be on the 2019. That was probably my main concern going into this year and they already have 27 this year. I am confident the younger guys can pick up some slack again, if not I think we are in big trouble.

 

Orr and Baun will be hard to replace. They probably won't get that kind of elite-like pass rush from a few guys, but overall I think they can be a bit more balanced on defense. Hopefully the DBs step up enough to offset the lighter pass rush. I think the DL will be better next year too.