Badgers Football 2019

[MrTPlush]

5 out of their last 6 meetings with OSU have actually been decided by a touchdown or less. Found that slightly surprising since they pretty own us. I do agree some may end up closer than they really are. For anyone wondering they last beat OSU in 2010 and haven’t won at OSU since 2004.

 

I keep going back and forth on our chances in that game or being able to win the Championship game if we get there (and play them). It’s important to note OSU could easily lose to Penn State and not even represent their side in the Championship game.

[homer]

Two receivers on the Ron Dayne led 1996 team were drafted (Tony Simmons, Donald Hayes) and that was with Mike Samuel at QB. Simmons was drafted in the 2nd round and never had more than 29 catches in a season. Yes he had world-class speed.

 

Cephus' biggest problem isn't the passing game. It's depth. He leads the team with 19 catches and there are four guys behind him with 15. They spread the ball all over the place.

[homer]

Time will tell on that but this team reminds me a lot of those teams that get walked out of Indy in December because they just can't keep up with the big boys of college football.

 

Worth noting that the Badgers have only been "w'alked out of Indy" once in five trips there. The other four included two wins and two one possession losses. They've hung fairly well with the "big boys of college football" historically.

 

 

The last two games against Penn St and Ohio St were closer in score than the actual game. At least that is what it felt like being there. The speed OSU and PSU had on the field didn't seem to compare to ours in those games.

 

PSU threw a bunch of 50/50 jump balls and won each of them. They didn't run past UW.

[tmwiese55]

Yea your memory of PSU seems way off to me. UW was up like 28-7 in that game and should've rolled. Blew it in the 2nd half. That's far from being run out of the stadium as you imply. I know everyone else has pointed the same in recent posts but UW has hung with everyone quite well over the years. Take out last year's weird flop of a year that included some blowout losses and since roughly 2010 their only losses above 10 points were the 59-0 game and Bama. They usually hang with OSU, they've beaten SEC teams in recent bowl games, they beat USC in a recent bowl game.

 

All that said, I'm convinced on OSU this year and I don't think we're beating them.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Yea your memory of PSU seems way off to me. UW was up like 28-7 in that game and should've rolled. Blew it in the 2nd half. That's far from being run out of the stadium as you imply. I know everyone else has pointed the same in recent posts but UW has hung with everyone quite well over the years. Take out last year's weird flop of a year that included some blowout losses and since roughly 2010 their only losses above 10 points were the 59-0 game and Bama. They usually hang with OSU, they've beaten SEC teams in recent bowl games, they beat USC in a recent bowl game.

 

All that said, I'm convinced on OSU this year and I don't think we're beating them.

 

Exactly - I remember being out with friends the night of that PSU game and Wisky was just mauling them at the line of scrimmage. Then PSU just started chucking it deep and their receivers made a bunch of big plays that got them back into the game - combination of big plays by Penn State and the Badger offense going into hibernation made that a loseable game by the Badgers, which they wound up doing. Badgers beat themselves more than Penn State rolled them.

 

The only pasting they've suffered was that OSU drubbing a few years back - how much of that was a product of the circumstance with their coach basically having both feet out the door (Anderson) we probably won't know, but I'm sure that played a big part in it. Even in years where athletically the Badgers don't match the top end of the Big Ten or the SEC teams they've had to play in so many bowl games, their gameplan finds a way to keep them in it and actually win against teams that aren't used to playing physical every down. However, programs like Alabama and OSU have athletes everywhere who are able to play physical, so the Badgers have bad luck with their traditional game plan of ground & pound to wear a defense down - they need to be more dynamic, and at least this year's group of skill position players has the potential to do so if their line can pass block and their qb can make some throws.

[PeaveyFury]

 

The last two games against Penn St and Ohio St were closer in score than the actual game. At least that is what it felt like being there. The speed OSU and PSU had on the field didn't seem to compare to ours in those games.

 

Not sure you're remembering either completely accurately, as the Badgers were up 28-7 vs. PSU and held the lead going into the 4th quarter, and vs. OSU the Badgers had the ball at midfield with a chance to win it at the 1:09 mark. They should have beaten PSU, and they hung with OSU for literally 59 minutes. No flukes there.

[homer]

Re: OSU

 

Yes they are faster.

[owbc]

Noon kickoff for the UW-OSU game.

[tmwiese55]

Noon kickoff for the UW-OSU game.

 

Being that I'm going to the game it's annoying to not have the whole day leading up to it. But, for winning the game it's probably best to be at noon, any little bit can help.

[lcbj68c]

Noon kickoff for the UW-OSU game.

 

Guess that means no College Gameday then? Isn't that always the primetime game?

[pacopete4]

5 out of their last 6 meetings with OSU have actually been decided by a touchdown or less. Found that slightly surprising since they pretty own us. I do agree some may end up closer than they really are. For anyone wondering they last beat OSU in 2010 and haven’t won at OSU since 2004.

 

I keep going back and forth on our chances in that game or being able to win the Championship game if we get there (and play them). It’s important to note OSU could easily lose to Penn State and not even represent their side in the Championship game.

 

 

4-11 against Ohio State since 2000- We just don't match up with them for the most part. We can push out scores all we want but we just don't beat them very often.

 

Penn State has become much of the same. We've lost the last 4 to them and we are 5-8 since 2000.

 

Two hurdles that the Badgers are going to need to get through if they want to have a shot at the 4-team tournament.

[homer]

5 out of their last 6 meetings with OSU have actually been decided by a touchdown or less. Found that slightly surprising since they pretty own us. I do agree some may end up closer than they really are. For anyone wondering they last beat OSU in 2010 and haven’t won at OSU since 2004.

 

I keep going back and forth on our chances in that game or being able to win the Championship game if we get there (and play them). It’s important to note OSU could easily lose to Penn State and not even represent their side in the Championship game.

 

 

4-11 against Ohio State since 2000- We just don't match up with them for the most part. We can push out scores all we want but we just don't beat them very often.

 

Penn State has become much of the same. We've lost the last 4 to them and we are 5-8 since 2000.

 

Two hurdles that the Badgers are going to need to get through if they want to have a shot at the 4-team tournament.

 

 

I think everyone knows that OSU is simply a better program. Everything has to break right for UW to run the table - schedule and injuries being the two biggest factors. OSU can lose a starter and replace him with a 4 or 5-star recruit in most cases. UW doesn't have that luxury. I think UW will get the the Final Four at least once during Chryst's tenure...possibly more than that. But to expect it annually means setting yourself up for disappointment.

[tmwiese55]

Noon kickoff for the UW-OSU game.

 

Guess that means no College Gameday then? Isn't that always the primetime game?

 

No, that's not true. It's not always a primetime game and it's not always an ABC/ESPN game. They genuinely do their best to go to the biggest game of the week while weighing against likely other upcoming big games they'll be at and locations they've already been this year. For example, in that week there is Auburn at LSU. You can likely rule that out due to them just being at LSU last week, plus the following week will have LSU at Bama. So it'll be our game or ND @ Mich. I'd be really surprised if they didn't go with UW/OSU (especially if we assume Mich loses to PSU this week), but they could factor in that PSU will be at OSU a few weeks later and there aren't really any other big games that week so they're risking doubling up on @OSU. They also know they have OSU@Michigan later on too, so might not want to use up Michigan either, though one would assume Gameday is already planned for Bama/Auburn that week, better weather and of course should be huge game in itself.

 

To the "we can't hang with OSU" discussion. I don't think anyone was disagreeing they're a hurdle, better than us, or that we usually lose. It was your insinuation that we get ran out of the building by them like we can't even compete. That has happened once. Again, eliminating last year's weirdness and this team for supposedly being so overwhelmed and unable to handle the athletes and speeds of the better recruited blue blood programs they have only lost by more than 10 points twice in about 8 years. While beating the likes of LSU, Auburn, USC, Miami. They were down to Bama by 7 at halftime. Went to wire with LSU, and to the wire in all Rose Bowls, and South Carolina, and to the wire with OSU several times. You might recall last time OSU came to UW we were ahead the whole game and ended up losing in OT.

[PeaveyFury]

4-11 against Ohio State since 2000- We just don't match up with them for the most part. We can push out scores all we want but we just don't beat them very often.

 

Penn State has become much of the same. We've lost the last 4 to them and we are 5-8 since 2000.

 

Two hurdles that the Badgers are going to need to get through if they want to have a shot at the 4-team tournament.

 

I think your conclusion is right, even if I disagree with the previous stuff, which I still do. Chryst is only responsible for 2 losses to each of those teams, and only one of them was by more than 1 score (12 to PSU last year). I'm confident they'll be able to "hang with those big boys" just fine, but they will need to win against one of those teams to get to the playoff, this year or any other.

[young guns]

I was curious about the start time and wondered why not a primetime game, but then I looked and game 4 of the world series is that night. Even the big sec matchup is only a 230 game.

[HiAndTight]

4-11 against Ohio State since 2000- We just don't match up with them for the most part. We can push out scores all we want but we just don't beat them very often.

 

Penn State has become much of the same. We've lost the last 4 to them and we are 5-8 since 2000.

 

Two hurdles that the Badgers are going to need to get through if they want to have a shot at the 4-team tournament.

 

I think your conclusion is right, even if I disagree with the previous stuff, which I still do. Chryst is only responsible for 2 losses to each of those teams, and only one of them was by more than 1 score (12 to PSU last year). I'm confident they'll be able to "hang with those big boys" just fine, but they will need to win against one of those teams to get to the playoff, this year or any other.

 

 

Even that game when the Badgers lost by 6 points while trying to preserve an undefeated season, IIRC that's the game Van Ginkel scored that great pick 6..and they hung around, but it never felt like the Badgers were going to win that game. The one area that OSU has always had a huge edge over UW is their secondary. They can go 6-7 deep and have had multiple guys picked in the first couple rounds the last few years and should again this year whereas the Badgers haven't had the speed on the backend to be able to play the type of coverage that they normally like to.

 

I like the backend of this defense this year, but they're young. They look like they're going to really develop into an elite unit, but it's a big ask for them to play man vs OSU AND then shut down Fields running ability. He's about as talented as the Badgers are going to see on this level. There may be better pro prospects, but he's an amazing athlete.

 

 

But it'll be fun to see if the young guys are up to the challenge. I just wish we didn't have to beat OSU twice most likely in order to get to the playoffs...but, maybe Penn State helps us out after we knock off OSU next week.

[areacodes]

4-11 against Ohio State since 2000- We just don't match up with them for the most part. We can push out scores all we want but we just don't beat them very often.

 

Penn State has become much of the same. We've lost the last 4 to them and we are 5-8 since 2000.

 

Two hurdles that the Badgers are going to need to get through if they want to have a shot at the 4-team tournament.

 

Since 2000, OSU has won about 83% of their games overall but only about 73% against UW.

 

Since 2000, PSU has won about 65% of their games overall but only about 61% against UW.

 

While they, or at least OSU, will definitely be in the way of UW making the playoffs, UW has played better than average against them since 2000.

[MrTPlush]

4-11 against Ohio State since 2000- We just don't match up with them for the most part. We can push out scores all we want but we just don't beat them very often.

 

Penn State has become much of the same. We've lost the last 4 to them and we are 5-8 since 2000.

 

Two hurdles that the Badgers are going to need to get through if they want to have a shot at the 4-team tournament.

 

Since 2000, OSU has won about 83% of their games overall but only about 73% against UW.

 

Since 2000, PSU has won about 65% of their games overall but only about 61% against UW.

 

While they, or at least OSU, will definitely be in the way of UW making the playoffs, UW has played better than average against them since 2000.

 

Those percentages seem awfully close considering those teams probably have 3 cupcakes out of the conference per year and then the cupcakes of the BIG Ten.

 

I would be much more interested in the percentages at least taking out the cupcake non conference games...preferably taking out Big Ten cupcakes too (Illinois/Rutgers for the most part).

 

 

 

On a different note, I often wonder what the best and most realistic case for the Badgers is. I would imagine it would be losing to Ohio State on the road, Penn State beating Ohio State for their only loss, and then us getting to face Penn State in a battle of one loss teams. Worst case is probably beating Ohio State and then having to face Ohio State in Indianapolis...beating Ohio State twice in a year is probably a pipe dream. I won't cheer for them to lose obviously, but it is really hard to imagine beating them twice.

[tmwiese55]

If ya'll haven't seen this yet. Meyer breaking down some UW passing game things from last wee. BTW Urban is really good on TV and as an analyst. I know they won't take a college guy and do this but I'd take him all day over Booger on MNF.

 

[HiAndTight]

4-11 against Ohio State since 2000- We just don't match up with them for the most part. We can push out scores all we want but we just don't beat them very often.

 

Penn State has become much of the same. We've lost the last 4 to them and we are 5-8 since 2000.

 

Two hurdles that the Badgers are going to need to get through if they want to have a shot at the 4-team tournament.

 

Since 2000, OSU has won about 83% of their games overall but only about 73% against UW.

 

Since 2000, PSU has won about 65% of their games overall but only about 61% against UW.

 

While they, or at least OSU, will definitely be in the way of UW making the playoffs, UW has played better than average against them since 2000.

 

Those percentages seem awfully close considering those teams probably have 3 cupcakes out of the conference per year and then the cupcakes of the BIG Ten.

 

I would be much more interested in the percentages at least taking out the cupcake non conference games...preferably taking out Big Ten cupcakes too (Illinois/Rutgers for the most part).

 

 

 

On a different note, I often wonder what the best and most realistic case for the Badgers is. I would imagine it would be losing to Ohio State on the road, Penn State beating Ohio State for their only loss, and then us getting to face Penn State in a battle of one loss teams. Worst case is probably beating Ohio State and then having to face Ohio State in Indianapolis...beating Ohio State twice in a year is probably a pipe dream. I won't cheer for them to lose obviously, but it is really hard to imagine beating them twice.

 

 

Yeah, we're Wisconsin. We're not the average team Ohio State or Penn State play. We're firmly in that 2nd tier or teams. The teams that are consistently in the top 15-20 and in a given year will finish in the top 10. So our record SHOULD be better than the average teams against both OSU and Penn State. Penn State, in particular, doesn't scare me. Ohio State, however, is a juggernaut and we have to play that game at our pace. Slow them down by keeping the offense on the field, get rid of the ball early. They jump out to a lead and Fields gets into a rhythm and Dobbins gets going, and Young can pin his ears back and come after us, things could get ugly.

 

I think the ability of our Corners to contain the OSU passing game is the biggest factor. We lined up and played a lot of man vs Michigan and despite them having a lot of talent at WR'er, we were able to get to the QB's and slow them down. If we can do that again, keep the game close, we can definitely win.

 

 

As far as the scenario you laid out, losing to OSU and then facing Penn State in the B10 Title game, I don't think that earns us a playoff spot over a 1 loss LSU, 'Bama or UGA team. So I think we've got to beat them in Columbus and then if we play PSU in the B10 Championship game, that's our shot to get into the playoffs.

[owbc]

If they win at OSU they will be playoff favorites which would be unprecedented for this program. Some of the other contenders will drop games. Plus if it is close the committee politics favor the Big Ten getting a team in this year. And Wisconsin has much more respect nationally now than they did a few years ago so even a close loss is allowable.

 

It will be interesting to see how Penn State does against Michigan this weekend. I think the gap between those two teams is closer than many think. We just need one of them to beat OSU. I agree with everyone that a rematch with OSU in the title game is the worst case scenario.

[homer]

I feel like it's almost better to lose a close game at OSU and then win the title game. I don't see them beating OSU twice.

[adambr2]

I feel like it's almost better to lose a close game at OSU and then win the title game. I don't see them beating OSU twice.

 

Yeah I hate to say it, but this game likely means...probably not much compared to the B10 Championship. Although if you actually do beat OSU twice and go unbeaten you're a guaranteed in, whereas losing this one and winning the B10 Championship is not a complete certainty. Also totally possible Penn State, not OSU wins the East, it'll come down to their game most likely, but with it being on OSUs field I would not count on a PSU win.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I feel like it's almost better to lose a close game at OSU and then win the title game. I don't see them beating OSU twice.

 

Yeah I hate to say it, but this game likely means...probably not much compared to the B10 Championship. Although if you actually do beat OSU twice and go unbeaten you're a guaranteed in, whereas losing this one and winning the B10 Championship is not a complete certainty. Also totally possible Penn State, not OSU wins the East, it'll come down to their game most likely, but with it being on OSUs field I would not count on a PSU win.

 

Tend to agree, but if WI beats OSU at the horseshoe and then loses to them in a close Big Ten title game, I feel like they could still make a great case for still being in the final 4 provided OSU finishes with 1 loss as well - assuming there is some carnage in other conferences. There would be no other quality road win aside from LSU potentially winning at Bama that would come close to winning in Columbus.

 

That's assuming the SEC continues to beat one another up, which could easily happen with many of those teams' remaining schedules and the overall talent level in that conference. If one of those SEC powers winds up unblemished (ALA or LSU), while the other finishes with 2 losses or doesn't even win its division to play in the SEC title game, then I think the SEC only gets 1 team in after that Georgia debacle last week. I'm assuming Clemson winds up in. Oklahoma is the obvious big 12 candidate, but it wouldn't surprise me if they wind up finding a way towards a bad regular season loss or perhaps a Big 12 title game loss to TX.

 

I'm interested to see how Wisky looks against a team they should beat up in the Illini, with it being a road game. They've only played once on the road to date at south florida, so they've had home cooking for almost 2 months now - they've gotta be impressive against an inferior opponent to give me reason to believe they're primed for giving OSU all they can handle on the road the following week.

[owbc]

The conference championship games are the de facto quarterfinals. It is almost certainly an elimination game for the playoff.

 

The only hope would be if a 2-loss OSU/PSU/Michigan beats an undefeated Wisconsin in the B10 championship along with some help from Clemson and Oklahoma. Otherwise they will just take the 1-loss team that beats Wisconsin.

 

If there is too much carnage then it just brings more teams into the picture such as Oregon and Norte Dame.