Badgers Football 2019

[DuWayne Steurer]

Minnesota just isn't that good. They've been squeaking by some really bad teams. A 3 point win over Georgia Southern and a 7 point win over North Dakota State. Illinois last week was their first double digit win of the season. They'll likely be an 8 or 9 win team by the time the Badgers play them, simply because the Goofs have a ridiculously soft schedule this year, and are still struggling to get through it.

 

I'll take the Badgers easily in that one.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The Badgers have outscored their opponents 255-29 in 6 games. That is absolutely absurd.

 

When you consider almost all of those points were scored in garbage time it's even more absurd.

[lcbj68c]

Is there something wrong with me that I want OSU to go to the playoffs and we take the Rose Bowl?

[lcbj68c]

Is there something wrong with me that I want OSU to go to the playoffs and we take the Rose Bowl?

 

Let me rephrase...I guess I just want going to the Rose Bowl to be an, "at worst" and "guaranteed" thing if our only blemishes are OSU and B1G CG. I'd rather take Rose Bowl right now than some 10% chance at making the playoffs. I just feel like we could lose at OSU and lose again in B1G CG, while OSU stumbles against Michigan or somebody else -they miss the playoffs, OSU gets the Rose Bowl and Wisconsin is playing in some Outback Bowl somewhere on New Years Day.

[PeaveyFury]

It doesn’t work the way it used to with the Bowls. If Wisconsin is the runner up in the Big Ten and OSU is in the Rose, Wisconsin is likely back in the Cotton or Orange, assuming they only have 1-2 losses.

[HiAndTight]

Of course the flip side is Florida can run the table and bama might still get in too.

 

But not ahead of a 1 loss big ten champ, it was a close call when Bama got in ahead of a 2 loss OSU a couple of years ago. I had a pretty good laugh about it because I was still sore about the Badger loss the night before but I still thought it was wrong, you shouldn't get credit for missing your conference title game and losing in one should take you out in most cases. Just take care of business in the non Columbus games the rest of the way and the Badger will have a play in game in the BTC. Long way to go but things looking good after today.

 

 

It's not about getting credit. They're trying to pick the best 4 teams. They have guidelines for what constitutes those 4 teams, but if your only loss is to a playoff team...you probably should get in over a 2 loss team.

 

The only way I can see a 1 loss Badger team that doesn't get in is if Clemson and Oklahoma are both undefeated and then 'Bama loses a really close game vs LSU.

 

I have a hard time seeing the committee keeping Alabama out of the playoffs if they're only loss is to a team like LSU.

[HiAndTight]

The craziest thing about this team is they might only lose 5? impact players.

 

AJ Taylor

Erdman

Orr

Baun

J. Taylor (early)

 

Am I missing a senior that starts? I’m not sure anyone else would be good enough to leave early. Maybe an OL, but the recruits there are crazy good too.

 

I think Biadasz will leave early for sure and I would be surprised if Cephus didn't, he just lost a year.

 

Biadasz is a near lock to be one of the first 40 picks and will probably go higher, so he's almost definitely leaving. I don't know if Cephus is a big enough prospect that he'll end up leaving early.

[adambr2]

- We want Bama, really, to run the table. LSU isn't a threat to be taken over us with one loss and no championship appearance if we have one loss plus a B10 Championship. Bama is, and probably will be.

 

- Clemson is probably going to run it and be a top 2 seed, hard to see that not happening.

 

- Oklahoma has an inside track at the 3rd spot. At Baylor is probably their biggest chance of losing.

 

- That leaves one spot in the worst case scenario. Run it, and it goes to us with absolutely no doubt. No getting in without winning the B10 Championship. Getting in with one loss with a B10 Championship is plausible, but far from guaranteed. You'll have to sweat it out and hope the committee don't opt for a 1 loss like Notre Dame. It's also possible Georgia runs the table and beats a previously unbeaten Alabama in the SEC Championship which would really muck things up.

[homer]

About the only thing we haven't really seen is Coan throw the deep ball. But they haven't really had to. Very complete team without a real weakness (kicker maybe?). Reminds me of the Tolzien years - great D, very efficient O. I am confident they'll split with OSU if they end up playing twice.

[young guns]

The way it is now just feels like bama would have to lose twice to be out, with the only exception being an undefeated clemson, Oklahoma, and big 10 school, with bamas 1 loss keeping them from winning the sec.

 

But let's just keep winning and not have to worry about it!

[OldHeidelberg]

- We want Bama, really, to run the table. LSU isn't a threat to be taken over us with one loss and no championship appearance if we have one loss plus a B10 Championship. Bama is, and probably will be.

 

- Clemson is probably going to run it and be a top 2 seed, hard to see that not happening.

 

- Oklahoma has an inside track at the 3rd spot. At Baylor is probably their biggest chance of losing.

 

- That leaves one spot in the worst case scenario. Run it, and it goes to us with absolutely no doubt. No getting in without winning the B10 Championship. Getting in with one loss with a B10 Championship is plausible, but far from guaranteed. You'll have to sweat it out and hope the committee don't opt for a 1 loss like Notre Dame. It's also possible Georgia runs the table and beats a previously unbeaten Alabama in the SEC Championship which would really muck things up.

 

I think Notre Dame is out short of unforeseen mayhem, they just don't have the schedule strength to jump a one loss power 5 champ. Last year they were undefeated and that is why a 1 loss big ten champ was left out. You have to wonder if a season like this will put pressure on ND to finally join conference.

 

I think when breaking a close race for #4 the committee has established 2 things it uses first:

 

- number of losses

- power 5 conference championship game winner

 

If one team falls short in one of these the other team gets in. If there is split like OSU(champion with 2 losses)/BAMA(didn't make their title game 1 loss) 2 years ago they go to other criteria. I remember the committee pointing to OSU's blowout loss in Iowa as a big factor. It does appear number of losses is weighed heavier as 1 loss OSU got in over 2 loss champ PSU even though PSU beat them.

 

I could be wrong but I don't think a 1 loss non champ has jumped a 1 loss power 5 champ to get in. The championship is a defined criteria and they want those games to be meaningful for ratings so I don't think it will happen. Of course Alabama and Clemson are 2 of the best teams but they still have to qualify. I remember one year they said Bama was in win or lose but they were playing a 3 loss Florida who could not jump them, PSU and Wis were in BTC with 2 losses and there was no one loss team in the Big12. I think a one loss big ten champion Wis is a lock over a one loss Bama or whoever non champ, there is no way they put a 2nd SEC team in over a Big Ten champ with losses being equal in my opinion. Look at it another way, they are probably feeling the heat of all the Clemson/Bama title games and would be thrilled with some fresh blood there.

[OldHeidelberg]

 

Biadasz is a near lock to be one of the first 40 picks and will probably go higher, so he's almost definitely leaving. I don't know if Cephus is a big enough prospect that he'll end up leaving early.

 

I don't know either, he was out of football 2 months ago and at least none of the free draft sites I have browsed seem to even realize he exists yet. But he looks like a pro player to me, great hands and concentration and he looks fast enough, he isn't going to get any better coming back. It's really his senior year.

[HiAndTight]

 

Biadasz is a near lock to be one of the first 40 picks and will probably go higher, so he's almost definitely leaving. I don't know if Cephus is a big enough prospect that he'll end up leaving early.

 

I don't know either, he was out of football 2 months ago and at least none of the free draft sites I have browsed seem to even realize he exists yet. But he looks like a pro player to me, great hands and concentration and he looks fast enough, he isn't going to get any better coming back. It's really his senior year.

 

 

Well, that's what the NFL advisory board is for. And they're usually pretty good about giving a guy some idea. I still think the fact that he was on trial for a serious crime is going to hurt him. Just the fact that it'll be the first thing they really talk about when/if he gets drafted and then the team is going to have to explain the circumstances. Plus, some will just assume he was guilty or at least guilty enough.

 

 

I don't get a good read on that pro prospects of the Badgers kinda second tier prospects to begin with. I liked Biegel, I thought Fredericks was vastly overrated, I thought Fumagalli would be a really solid pro TE...so I'm really clueless about what teams will think of Cephus.

 

I'm pulling for the guy though.

[OldHeidelberg]

 

Well, that's what the NFL advisory board is for. And they're usually pretty good about giving a guy some idea. I still think the fact that he was on trial for a serious crime is going to hurt him. Just the fact that it'll be the first thing they really talk about when/if he gets drafted and then the team is going to have to explain the circumstances. Plus, some will just assume he was guilty or at least guilty enough.

 

 

I don't get a good read on that pro prospects of the Badgers kinda second tier prospects to begin with. I liked Biegel, I thought Fredericks was vastly overrated, I thought Fumagalli would be a really solid pro TE...so I'm really clueless about what teams will think of Cephus.

 

I'm pulling for the guy though.

 

I have trouble getting a good read on badger pro prospects too but Cephus sort of jumped out at me even as a freshman as potentially one of the Badgers better receiver prospects. I did find a web site that ranks him at #176 which makes him a 5th-6th round pick but their scouting report which I will post below seems to factor the trial in as a pretty big negative. Maybe putting another year between his draft and the trial will help but he is going to make it or not, passing up a year of potential NFL pay and delaying free agency is a big decision.

 

PROS: A whole lot to like with Cephus' receiving skills. He's a natural hands catcher, comfortable catching the ball away from his body and showcasing very good body control to adjust to the football. Showed some dynamic receiving ability down the field on back shoulder throws and poorly placed footballs due to poor quarterback play -- hauling in receptions that a lesser receiver couldn't adjust to. He's quick! I like his ability to stack defenders against press coverage when able to establish a clean release -- he feasted against Central Michigan by torching corners at the LOS and separating vertically. I don't think he's a true burner from a 40 or testing perspective, but he's got a second gear when he needs to flip the switch. Runs a reasonably diverse number of routes -- Wisconsin has moved him from boundary to slot and tasked him with running routes to all levels and into the teeth of the defense in the middle of the field.

 

CONS: Missed the 2018 college football season after being charged with two separate accounts of sexual assault -- faced a maximum of 40 years in prison before being found not guilty to all charges shortly before the start of the 2019 season. His name is cleared, but teams will conduct thorough vetting of the circumstances to ensure they are comfortable with the details. On the gridiron, Cephus hasn't been afforded the opportunity to showcase himself with high volume due to run heavy offense and spotty quarterback play. He can get a little sloppy on his breaks with defenders leveraged overtop and won't always snap off his stems when having to play around contact in the secondary.

 

Updated: 09/18/2019

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/quintez-cephus/A49cn2BxKO

[Smichaelis9]

 

Well, that's what the NFL advisory board is for. And they're usually pretty good about giving a guy some idea. I still think the fact that he was on trial for a serious crime is going to hurt him. Just the fact that it'll be the first thing they really talk about when/if he gets drafted and then the team is going to have to explain the circumstances. Plus, some will just assume he was guilty or at least guilty enough.

 

 

I don't get a good read on that pro prospects of the Badgers kinda second tier prospects to begin with. I liked Biegel, I thought Fredericks was vastly overrated, I thought Fumagalli would be a really solid pro TE...so I'm really clueless about what teams will think of Cephus.

 

I'm pulling for the guy though.

 

I have trouble getting a good read on badger pro prospects too but Cephus sort of jumped out at me even as a freshman as potentially one of the Badgers better receiver prospects. I did find a web site that ranks him at #176 which makes him a 5th-6th round pick but their scouting report which I will post below seems to factor the trial in as a pretty big negative. Maybe putting another year between his draft and the trial will help but he is going to make it or not, passing up a year of potential NFL pay and delaying free agency is a big decision.

 

PROS: A whole lot to like with Cephus' receiving skills. He's a natural hands catcher, comfortable catching the ball away from his body and showcasing very good body control to adjust to the football. Showed some dynamic receiving ability down the field on back shoulder throws and poorly placed footballs due to poor quarterback play -- hauling in receptions that a lesser receiver couldn't adjust to. He's quick! I like his ability to stack defenders against press coverage when able to establish a clean release -- he feasted against Central Michigan by torching corners at the LOS and separating vertically. I don't think he's a true burner from a 40 or testing perspective, but he's got a second gear when he needs to flip the switch. Runs a reasonably diverse number of routes -- Wisconsin has moved him from boundary to slot and tasked him with running routes to all levels and into the teeth of the defense in the middle of the field.

 

CONS: Missed the 2018 college football season after being charged with two separate accounts of sexual assault -- faced a maximum of 40 years in prison before being found not guilty to all charges shortly before the start of the 2019 season. His name is cleared, but teams will conduct thorough vetting of the circumstances to ensure they are comfortable with the details. On the gridiron, Cephus hasn't been afforded the opportunity to showcase himself with high volume due to run heavy offense and spotty quarterback play. He can get a little sloppy on his breaks with defenders leveraged overtop and won't always snap off his stems when having to play around contact in the secondary.

 

Updated: 09/18/2019

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/quintez-cephus/A49cn2BxKO

Was about to post this exact report when I saw your earlier reply before scrolling... I’ve also wondered how much the accusations will effect him. I’d think it would certainly weigh him down at least a little...

 

On a bit of a side note, I can’t recommend that website (thedraftnetwork.com) enough if you’re into the NFL Draft. They have tools to create your own Big Board, as well as simulate a draft as any, or all, team(s), and pump out high quality content in the form of articles and scouting reports. And for it to be all free is pretty awesome...

[MrTPlush]

I think Cephus would get drafted. His draft status may heavily depend on a combine showing though. With our sad passing game he will never have the stats.

 

I think he should and would come back if he is advised he won’t get drafted. Why get yourself into the practice squad life? Someone said this year is his “senior year”...no not in any form of the word. He didn’t go to school or even be apart of the team period last year. He is a true junior in my mind and won’t finish a degree this year.

 

Will the whole sexual assault thing effect him? Yah, these days teams are nervous of people even getting themselves in a position to have that problem. You are under a microscope as an athlete/pro. It isn’t right, but sometimes your profession means people may try to take advantage of that status. Look no further than Antonio Brown. I do think another year removed from that would help him a ton depending on the team/people evaluating him.

[homer]

Sad?

[DuWayne Steurer]

Coan's completed 76% of his attempts and has 1 pick in 135 attempts. He's been hyper efficient when asked to throw the ball. Like Homer earlier said, he hasn't shown a great ability to throw the deep ball, and so far he's only been asked to try it a few times, and obviously the need hasn't been there.

 

The Badgers average 24 throws a game, and he's completing 19 of them, and he's doing a pretty decent job of hitting his receivers in stride, away from defenders, and generally putting his receivers in position to make plays and get YAC. Can't really complain. I don't know how any of that qualifies as "sad", other than just the fact that the Badgers just don't put it up a ton.

[MrTPlush]

Sad?

 

Yes, the passing game is not that good. Cephus has no more than 3 catches in a game or more than 39 yards in any game not against Central Michigan.

 

Jack Coan is doing what he needs to do. Complete short passes when needed and not make mistakes. I think he has a TD and INT against competent teams so far (3 games). With a great defense and a top flight RB that’s all he really needs to be.

 

That’s just the reality at Wisconsin. They don’t really throw the ball, it’s not their identity. It will be interesting to see if that changes with Taylor leaving and a possible Mertz insertion in 2020 or 2021.

 

Regardless, for an NFL hopeful in Cephus he really isn’t going to get stats to open the eyes of scouts.

[CheezWizHed]

Those aren't sad from a winning football and team standpoint but from Cephas' chance to put up stats, 199 yds/game and 1.3 TDs/game passing aren't great.

[nate82]

 

Regardless, for an NFL hopeful in Cephus he really isn’t going to get stats to open the eyes of scouts.

 

Scouts haven't just looked at stats for the past 10+ years and probably longer. Some on here get way too caught up on the stats of a player and forget that that is only 1/3 of the equation that scouts and teams are looking at.

 

Scouts for Cephus and others are going to be more interested in how well he catches a ball and how well he runs a route. They will also care more about his cut quickness and his general quickness on the field. Stats are basically the last thing teams and scouts are looking at. Scouts are more opening of their eyes when it comes to how athletic a player is than they are of their "stats".

[MrTPlush]

Those aren't sad from a winning football and team standpoint but from Cephas' chance to put up stats, 199 yds/game and 1.3 TDs/game passing aren't great.

 

I didn’t say it was...just as far as Cephus’ NFL prospects go it is pretty bad. I really don’t care how they win personally...just that they win. Doesn’t bother me their passing game historically isn’t much of a difference maker.

 

I also didn’t say it was “everything”. Just pointing out staying longer for stats really isn’t going to be much of a motivator...can’t really prove much in that aspect. Hence why I mentioned the NFL combine...that’s where Cephus will make a living.

[pacopete4]

While stats might not be the end-all, they do matter. Pro scouts/teams want to see that you have had production. Coan has been fine. He hasn't been asked to do much yet but he's done his job well. Is he the needle mover the Badgers offense needs to beat a team like OSU in a couple of weeks? Time will tell on that but this team reminds me a lot of those teams that get walked out of Indy in December because they just can't keep up with the big boys of college football.

[PeaveyFury]

Time will tell on that but this team reminds me a lot of those teams that get walked out of Indy in December because they just can't keep up with the big boys of college football.

 

Worth noting that the Badgers have only been "w'alked out of Indy" once in five trips there. The other four included two wins and two one possession losses. They've hung fairly well with the "big boys of college football" historically.

[pacopete4]

Time will tell on that but this team reminds me a lot of those teams that get walked out of Indy in December because they just can't keep up with the big boys of college football.

 

Worth noting that the Badgers have only been "w'alked out of Indy" once in five trips there. The other four included two wins and two one possession losses. They've hung fairly well with the "big boys of college football" historically.

 

 

The last two games against Penn St and Ohio St were closer in score than the actual game. At least that is what it felt like being there. The speed OSU and PSU had on the field didn't seem to compare to ours in those games.