What is with the lack of homegrown talent

[brewers888]

On the current roster only Braun, Arcia, and Cain among the position players and Nelson, Burnes, Woodruff, Jeffress were originally signed or drafted by the Brewers. We do have Hiura who should be back soon but he appears to be the only potential impact player even close to the majors.

 

We all know that the Melvin years were full of mostly terrible drafts and a lack of impact international signings but to be honest I don't think we are doing that well in that regard under Stearns either. Now Stearns hasn't been GM long enough to make any complete determinations but as of today things don't look great.

 

Stearns has mostly done a great job with trades and short term free agent signings but in order to build a sustainable winner we need to do much better with the draft and internationally as well. There is a lot to be excited about with Hiura but besides him where is the impact talent.

[torts]

Before criticism of Milwaukee, what is the average in mlb of homegrown players on the mlb roster?

[Eye Black]

Before criticism of Milwaukee, what is the average in mlb of homegrown players on the mlb roster?

During this past off-season this article, Ranking All 30 MLB Teams on Homegrown Talent Entering 2019, had the Brewers ranked 26th, but that was by projected WAR from homegrown talent, and not total # of players. However, the Brewers are near the bottom of the list in total number of homegrown players on their roster as well (if you don’t include Cain and Jeffress due to the way they were acquired after being out of the organization). It is a very small difference though since most teams have only between 7-11 players on their 25 man roster that were homegrown.

 

Here is another article from Baseball America last fall during the playoffs, Most Homegrown Players On Division Series Rosters

 

Here was their list...

 

Homegrown Players On 2018 Division Series Rosters

 

[pre]Team Number

Rockies 14

Astros 11

Dodgers 11

Yankees 10

Red Sox 9

Braves 8

Indians 8

Brewers 6[/pre]

 

*Players such as Matt Holliday, Matt Kemp, Lorenzo Cain and David Robertson who were drafted and developed by a team, played for other teams and are now back with their original team are counted in their original team's total.

 

Also kind of interesting from that Baseball America article is that their were 8 homegrown Cubs that were on other teams Division Series playoff rosters last year... Gleyber Torres, Josh Donaldson, Marwin Gonzalez, Rich Hill, D.J. LeMahieu, Brandon Guyer, Chris Rusin and Ryan Flaherty. That was tied with the Orioles for the most from any organization.

[JosephC]

When Zduriencik was doing the drafts under Melvin, the Brewers were very respected for the quality of their drafts. Certainly there were busts like LaPorta, but there were plenty of hits in there too. And not only with high first rounders like Fielder and Braun, but also with some later picks like Gallardo, Lucroy, Brantley and Cain.

 

Then Seid took over and history has shown that there was a dramatic dropoff in the talent the Brewers got out of the draft. Almost all the first rounders were busts: Arnett, Covey (did not sign), Jungmann, Bradley (comp pick for Covey), Coutler, Roche, Haniger (the one hit). The Brewers did get some real good players in later rounds in Seid's first two seasons. 2009 = Khris Davis, Scooter Gennett, Michael Fiers. 2010 = Jimmy Nelson, Tyler Thornburg. There were some hits after that but they were few and far in-between (Woodruff, Haniger and still a couple too early to tell like Yamamoto).

 

Nonetheless, I'd say the first ten years (or so) under Melvin was pretty good and it really only dried up the last three years he was in charge. And it needs to be noted that the final season is still, IMO, too early to tell. Woodruff appears like he will be, at least, a solid middle of the rotation starter but could end up being way better than that. Yamamoto is off to a hot start and could turn out to be a nothing but could end up being way better than that. Monte Harrison is back in the top 100 and currently has a .378 OBP and .870 OPS in AAA, could be a bust but still has star talent and could be a real good one. It's still possible that three top talents could be in this group and we probably shouldn't completely write of Medeiros and Stokes just yet.

 

Lots of the lack of homegrown talent on the roster can be attributed to trades. The following players could still be with Milwaukee.

Khris Davis = traded, Stearns obviously wanted to "up" the outfield defense

Scooter Gennett = Stearns one big blunder IMO

Mike Fiers = TRADED BY MELVIN in a deal where the Brewers got a plus-plus return

Tyler Thronburg = traded in a deal where the Brewers got a plus-plus return

Mitch Haniger = TRADED BY MELVIN, trace the line of this one and it ended up with Davies as a Brewers, but this was probably not the best deal for Milwaukee

Then add Yamamoto and Harrison, another Stearns deal where he got a plus-plus-plus return

 

That's probably a good 5-7 major leaguers subtracted from the roster.

[SoCalBrewfan]

In addition to the above names, Garrett Cooper would be a great fit for the current Brewers' roster, as a RH hitting 1b/LF who is presently slashing 313/385/496. We traded him to the Yankees for a guy I had to look up, and then wished I hadn't. Mostly we've kept the right guys but there are a few I'm sure the front office would like do-overs on.

 

For many years the Brewers blew their early picks but hit on useful pieces later in the draft. That is in part the nature of the draft and the strategy of going for high risk and high reward in early rounds and higher floor players later. Jack Z had some hits and some misses, and I think his record in retrospect falls a bit short of his reputation at the time. Sadly, even our safe looking picks (Bradley, Jungmann) didn't often pan out, and the cumulative effect of those early round misses is a notable big league talent deficit that had to be filled with trades and signings. Some of the trades in turn moved out guys like Haniger or Odorizzi who could have filled important holes and reduced the need for more trades or signings.

 

In the end though it doesn't really matter where the talent started; you don't get extra points for home runs that came from guys you drafted. I like following the guys we draft, but if you can move Jason Rogers for Broxton and Trey Supak you do it and improve the overall talent level. The fact that Hader or Houser came from elsewhere doesn't diminish their impact. Plus you can count them as part of the legacy of drafting JJ Hardy all those years ago...

[JohnBriggs12]

If there's one thing Stearns deserves criticism for, it's that he's underrated some guys who were already here when he got here. The 2017 team in Colorado was supposed to be all about Brinson and Phillips, who were both among top 5 prospects in the system. But who was putting up the best offensive numbers on that team? Yup it was Garrett Cooper and it wasn't all that close. Sure they had Aguilar at the time, but Cooper had already proven he could play corner OF as well as 1B. They ended up with a guy for a someone who's set in Miami now. Cooper wasn't even getting invites to major league training camp. That's how little Stearns thought of him.

 

And he might not have liked Davis' OF defense but the results of that deal are in and he got fleeced by Oakland.

 

Then of course, there's Scooter Gennett. His underrating of him in favor of Jonathon Villar might go down as an historic blunder.

[torts]

Before criticism of Milwaukee, what is the average in mlb of homegrown players on the mlb roster?

During this past off-season this article, Ranking All 30 MLB Teams on Homegrown Talent Entering 2019, had the Brewers ranked 26th, but that was by projected WAR from homegrown talent, and not total # of players. However, the Brewers are near the bottom of the list in total number of homegrown players on their roster as well (if you don’t include Cain and Jeffress due to the way they were acquired after being out of the organization). It is a very small difference though since most teams have only between 7-11 players on their 25 man roster that were homegrown.

 

Here is another article from Baseball America last fall during the playoffs, Most Homegrown Players On Division Series Rosters

 

Here was their list...

 

Homegrown Players On 2018 Division Series Rosters

 

[pre]Team Number

Rockies 14

Astros 11

Dodgers 11

Yankees 10

Red Sox 9

Braves 8

Indians 8

Brewers 6[/pre]

 

*Players such as Matt Holliday, Matt Kemp, Lorenzo Cain and David Robertson who were drafted and developed by a team, played for other teams and are now back with their original team are counted in their original team's total.

 

Also kind of interesting from that Baseball America article is that their were 8 homegrown Cubs that were on other teams Division Series playoff rosters last year... Gleyber Torres, Josh Donaldson, Marwin Gonzalez, Rich Hill, D.J. LeMahieu, Brandon Guyer, Chris Rusin and Ryan Flaherty. That was tied with the Orioles for the most from any organization.

 

Thanks!!!

[LouisEly]

Want to talk about blunders? The Cubs traded Donaldson for 36 starts from Rich Harden (who walked 1.5 years later as a free agent), and they traded Chris Archer for 2.5 years of Matt Garza on teams that went 70-92, 61-101, and 66-96.

[brewerfan82]

I wonder how the team ranks if you combine homegrown players with players obtained by trading homegrown players. It gets a little murky including trades since you might send some players that are homegrown and some players that were obtained other ways, but just because the players you drafted didn't make it to the bigs for your own team, doesn't mean they were busts if they are good enough to obtain other talent for them.

[Eye Black]

Want to talk about blunders? The Cubs traded Donaldson for 36 starts from Rich Harden (who walked 1.5 years later as a free agent), and they traded Chris Archer for 2.5 years of Matt Garza on teams that went 70-92, 61-101, and 66-96.

Chris Archer trades haven’t really worked out for any team in the NL Central (except for those now facing him).

[treego14]

If there's one thing Stearns deserves criticism for, it's that he's underrated some guys who were already here when he got here. The 2017 team in Colorado was supposed to be all about Brinson and Phillips, who were both among top 5 prospects in the system. But who was putting up the best offensive numbers on that team? Yup it was Garrett Cooper and it wasn't all that close. Sure they had Aguilar at the time, but Cooper had already proven he could play corner OF as well as 1B. They ended up with a guy for a someone who's set in Miami now. Cooper wasn't even getting invites to major league training camp. That's how little Stearns thought of him.

 

And he might not have liked Davis' OF defense but the results of that deal are in and he got fleeced by Oakland.

 

Then of course, there's Scooter Gennett. His underrating of him in favor of Jonathon Villar might go down as an historic blunder.

He underrated Domingo Santana, too, who is putting up all-star numbers this year with Seattle. I know he was in Houston's system first, but he was in our minors for awhile wasn't he?

[adambr2]

This Santana hill is a weird one to pick to die on. Santana is not great. He does some things well. A few things. He can get into a fastball every once in awhile. He's got nice pop.

 

He is on pace to strikeout over 200 times and is a horrifically bad defender. Yes, like Thames level of bad. He should be on an AL team, which he is.

 

Braun isn't tradeable, so I don't know what you wanted them to do. Santana wasn't going to play every day here so he wouldn't be putting up fulltime numbers, and again, when he did he'd be one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball.

 

If you want to criticize Stearns for not getting Santana traded after 2017 when his value was higher, that's probably fair, but the return of a top end 4th OFer with an extra year of control + a prospect is perfectly appropriate compensation for Santana. You're overrating him pretty drastically. This is not a lopsided trade.

[Eye Black]

This Santana hill is a weird one to pick to die on.

This was verbatim my first thought when I saw the Santana/Gamel thread resuscitated.

 

Anything short of Rob Manfred announcing at the All Star break that the National League is adding the DH for the second half of the 2019 season, will keep me from bemoaning the trade.

 

From a roster construction standpoint the trade was fine. It certainly isn’t worth freaking out over.

[folly412]

This Santana hill is a weird one to pick to die on.

This was verbatim my first thought when I saw the Santana/Gamel thread resuscitated.

 

Anything short of Rob Manfred announcing at the All Star break that the National League is adding the DH for the second half of the 2019 season, will keep me from bemoaning the trade.

 

From a roster construction standpoint the trade was fine. It certainly isn’t worth freaking out over.

 

Not sure I understand how that was bad either. Santana is leading the league in SOs, has cost 11 runs defensively, and fourth outfielder was the only place for him on our roster. Gamel is a great fit as the fourth outfielder, can platoon with Braun, has been a plus defender and plays all outfield positions. I've also seen enough of Zavolas to believe he's going to be an MLB starter.

[jerichoholicninja]

I think a lot of it is just Stearns clearing out guys from the Melvin regime he wasn't in love with to bring in his own guys. Probably the same thing that happens every time a new GM takes over a team.

[MadThinker88]

Want to talk about blunders? The Cubs traded Donaldson for 36 starts from Rich Harden (who walked 1.5 years later as a free agent), and they traded Chris Archer for 2.5 years of Matt Garza on teams that went 70-92, 61-101, and 66-96.

Chris Archer trades haven’t really worked out for any team in the NL Central (except for those now facing him).

 

That seems to be a great return in comparison to what Cleveland got..

People forget that Chris Archer was originally a Tribe prospect.

Archer was dealt along with 2 other pitchers (including the 1 and only guy the Tribe got back in return from the Reds for Brandon Phillips) for Mark DeRosa. After half a season in '09, DeRosa was then sent to St. Louis for Chris Perez and Jess Todd in July 2009.

 

Both Perez & Todd departed the Tribe for no return over the next few seasons (Perez granted free agency in Oct 2013 & Todd waived in May 2011)..

 

Its really interesting at times to follow the transaction threads regarding a player to see where a club was successful or not..

[SomewhereInTime]

A main reason for this is our rebuild ended much sooner than anticipated, if we would've had the four or five years of losing before becoming competitive again, our roster would have more homegrown talent.

[mtrebs]

With the lack of homegrown talent in the past, especially with starting pitching, it was amazing that they thought they somehow happened to now have developed three starters in one season. That may go down as one of the biggest blunders in franchise history, when this window has been one of the best in franchise history and now this season is looking like a major failure.

[Smichaelis9]

With the lack of homegrown talent in the past, especially with starting pitching, it was amazing that they thought they somehow happened to now have developed three starters in one season. That may go down as one of the biggest blunders in franchise history, when this window has been one of the best in franchise history and now this season is looking like a major failure.

This might be the most hyperbolic post I’ve seen on this site in my time here... this season is looking like a major failure because we are 0.5 games out of first place? And having one starter of the three look really good while two of them struggle would qualify that decision as one of the biggest blunders in franchise history?!

 

What does the lack of homegrown pitching talent under a different regime have to do with this group?

 

Yes Burnes and Peralta have struggled, but both showed a ton of ability in their time up last year, including in their playoff appearances. Saying, “they thought they somehow happened to now have developed three starters in one season” as if it was incredibly stupid for the FO to believe they could all be successful at the MLB level this year is ridiculous. Woodruff appears to be pretty close to turning into a TOR arm and he’s actually a workhorse that they trust to go deep into games. On top of that, both Peralta and Burnes have still shown plenty to work with and are only 23 and 24 years old...

[sveumrules]

With the lack of homegrown talent in the past, especially with starting pitching, it was amazing that they thought they somehow happened to now have developed three starters in one season. That may go down as one of the biggest blunders in franchise history, when this window has been one of the best in franchise history and now this season is looking like a major failure.

 

 

If this season, where we currently have the 4th best record in the NL (against the 10th highest payroll) is looking like a major failure, what would you call the Giants spending 177 million (3rd in NL) to be the 2nd worst team?

 

Or the Nationals spending 163 million (4th in NL) to likely miss the postseason? Or the Mets spending 159 million (6th in NL) to likely do the same?

[mtrebs]

To me the record doesn't matter. Yes, I'm happy they are in the thick of it, but do I feel this team has a realistic chance to win the World Series without significant changes (either with current personnel doing a complete 180 or by making personnel changes altogether)? No way. This team has the feel that they could stick it out and maybe get to the postseason, but I don't see them beating beating two teams (and maybe not one) to get to the World Series. With where we were at last year, I would have rather them made the push for 2019 to be the year (which is what the Moustakas and Grandal signings would tend to indicate), but the shift to 60% of the starting rotation to unproven starters does not go along with the all-in mentality. And since we let our best veteran starter go for almost nothing, now we are left with a lackluster starting rotation.

 

The mention of the Brewers past inability to produce more than a few starting pitchers from the farm didn't imply that the new regime cannot do so, but instead was to demonstrate that it is very difficult. So to think that we'd have three legitimate starters that were ready for 2019 was poor judgement in my opinion (and that was my opinion before the season started... not saying I could do a better job, but I had the feeling with this one that we'd be hurting for starting pitching). They may be ready in a year or two, so hopefully we can have another push before Yelich is a free agent.

 

The Brewers either needed to make 2019 a "go forward with our young talent" and save money approach, or go all-in and spend. They did some of each and now our team either looks pretty good, or looks like the 2002 Brewers depending on the day.

[sveumrules]

The Dodgers (25%/20%), Astros (17%/20%) & Yankees (16%/15%) are the only teams with realistic chances to win the WS according to 538/FanGraphs.

 

According to BRef it's only the Dodgers (31%) & Astros (15%) with a realistic chance to win the WS.

 

I guess for me a "major failure" would be something like what the Nationals are doing. Spend a bunch of money, aim to compete, fall on your face.

 

What the Brewers are doing now, competing for the division/postseason, is exactly in line with expectations.

 

Coming into the season they were not considered WS favorites & no realistic combination of moves could have made them one.

[mtrebs]

That may be so, but last year was the first time the Brewers had a chance to get to the World Series in 36 years. Instead of improving the team, many would see that they have regressed. They are in a unique spot, with Yelich being as amazing as he is. They only have him for a guaranteed couple more years, so their window is likely short, and they could have made moves to strengthen the team. They did not. The 2019 team is not as good as the 2018 team, and that’s the major failure.

[Fear The Chorizo]

That may be so, but last year was the first time the Brewers had a chance to get to the World Series in 36 years. Instead of improving the team, many would see that they have regressed. They are in a unique spot, with Yelich being as amazing as he is. They only have him for a guaranteed couple more years, so their window is likely short, and they could have made moves to strengthen the team. They did not. The 2019 team is not as good as the 2018 team, and that’s the major failure.

 

Knebel getting hurt in mid-Spring Training was a huge blow, as was losing Wahl around the same time. The 2019 team talentwise is actually better than the 2018 team, IMO - they're essentially the same group of guys plus adding Grandal, Moose for a full season, a more versatile 4th OF to their roster, and having Hiura on the verge of being an everyday MLB contributor. The problem thus far with the 2019 team is many of their players are having poor years by not being even close to the standards set for themselves in 2017-2018 - that includes Shaw, Jesus, Burnes, Jeffress, Cain, Chacin, Anderson, Jeffress, and others that I'm sure I'm missing.

[balsamlaker]

The Brewers have done very well with trades as they have struggled in the realm of "draft and develop" over the last decade. It is difficult to say if the fault lies in the drafting or the developing, but Seid's drafting record does not look good. From a pitching standpoint, the Brewers have always struggled. Jack Z. hit on a couple with Sheets and Gallardo, otherwise you probably have to go back to a scout named Ray Poitevint during the Harry Dalton days who signed Higuera and drafted Bosio and Wegman.