Sell Mode: Now Buy Mode, We Got Lyles, Pomeranz, Black, and Faria!!

[pacopete4]

Add Shaw to the sell list.

[Oxy]

 

Hader/Grandal for Franco/Honeywell/Baz/Liberatore is off-the-rails crazy.

 

When the Marlins were shopping Yelich, I estimated his surplus value at 150 million but suggested that the offers would very likely max out at 120 million dollars because trades involving prospect capital higher than that just don't get made. I had the Brinson/Harrison/Diaz/Yamamoto package valued at 110 million, which is still a very significant and huge return.

 

I'd value the Franco/Honeywell/Baz/Liberatore package at 177.7 million in prospect surplus value. This would be a the starting point, and probably put a team 80+% of the way there, if the Angels were looking to deal Mike Trout. To think that a team would give up this type of package for a reliever and a rental catcher....no, no, no, no, no.

 

LOL. It's not just about the estimated value. It's about timing and risk as well The Rays are pretty well stacked except for at C, and Grandal is among the elite C in the league--hole plugged. Hader is the most dominant relief force this league has seen in years. For a team with WS aspirations that kind of dominance has more value than just the numbers would suggest. Both Hader and Grandal are about as sure things as you can get at the two positions the Rays need most to win a WS (have they ever done that before?).

 

Meanwhile, The Rays are already a super young team with an absolutely loaded farm system. As a previous poster said, they'd be giving up 3 guys who haven't even even played AA ball and a guy who will be coming back from injury next year after 2 years of not pitching. There is a very real possibility the Brewers would get 0 return from any of the 4 guys for 2 sure thing MLB guys who would significantly upgrade their chances at a WS title. And they'd have Hader for 4 more years! The RISK in this trade would be all on the Brewers side, and the TIMING could not be any better for the Rays to do something like this (although it is not their normal MO). If I'm a that mythical Rays fan out there I think I'd do this in a heartbeat rather than preserve my farm system ranking for another year+. It's not off the rails crazy from either side, anyway.

[trwi7]

The deal is incredibly lopsided for the Brewers. You're taking like four of the top 8 prospects in one of, if not the best farm system in the game and the main piece is at worst the second best prospect in baseball at this point. Using that website that was just posted to show how lopsided that deal is for the Brewers.

 

 

I think I'll take the risk that one of those four players works out and becomes a star that we have dirt cheap for three years and control of for six.

[OnTheBlack]

Hader and Grandal to the Rays for Wander Franco, Brent Honeywell, Shane Baz and Matt Liberatore. Or McKay, Sanchez, Brujan, Honeywell and Baz.

 

You want to give up on the entire season for 4 guys who aren't even out of A ball? Losing Hader leaves CC with zero closing options and losing Grandal severly limits an already shakey offense. Honeywell isn't even going to start pitching again until sometime next year! I doubt the Rays clean out the farm for a reliever and a rental anyways.

 

I would because the value we receive far exceeds what we're giving up. Not that I think the Rays would entertain that deal for even a second.

 

 

No, when do any of the realistic trades work out with the Rays? They ask for the moon and occasionally get it(Archer trade).

 

That'd probably be the worst organization to deal with.

 

I make that deal and even throw in something else as well. I don't believe we should sell now, but if the opportunity ever comes up to add elite level propsects for guys who aren't going to be here long term, I'd do that in any year other than the ones we're clearly one of the most talented teams in the league..and that's not this year. The best we can hope this year is that we hang around, and get hot like we did last year.

 

I enjoy the later just fine, but to actually win a WS, to beat what the Astros are throwing out there or the Yankees and Sox are usually throwing out, we're going to need better starting pitching.

[OnTheBlack]

Add Shaw to the sell list.

 

For what? Who's "buying" Shaw now? You're taking a guy who's been a stud, but through 81 games has been beyond awful. This is the absolute definition of selling low.

[pacopete4]

Add Shaw to the sell list.

 

For what? Who's "buying" Shaw now? You're taking a guy who's been a stud, but through 81 games has been beyond awful. This is the absolute definition of selling low.

 

Never know what other GMs think of a player. Some may see through the 81 game struggle especially if he starts hitting in AAA.

[OnTheBlack]

Add Shaw to the sell list.

 

For what? Who's "buying" Shaw now? You're taking a guy who's been a stud, but through 81 games has been beyond awful. This is the absolute definition of selling low.

 

Never know what other GMs think of a player. Some may see through the 81 game struggle especially if he starts hitting in AAA.

 

Yeah, I'd sure take a chance on him bouncing back if I was a bad team. But the return is gonna be peanuts. I'd rather we hold onto Shaw and simply hope that he figures it out and goes back to being our 3B of the future(The near future). Or if he gets going again at the big league level, then trade him.

[pacopete4]

Aguilar has been very good as of late. Just in time to be apart of the see off.

[phnxcrew]

They’re gonna need to prove hader is heathy to get the ridiculous package now. But yes, if Jesus has a couple hot weeks we could get quite a haul for a number of players all while probably playing better than they have been lately. Go Stearns! Rip some teams off in a barren trade market year

[Brew crew 92]

They’re gonna need to prove hader is heathy to get the ridiculous package now. But yes, if Jesus has a couple hot weeks we could get quite a haul for a number of players all while probably playing better than they have been lately. Go Stearns! Rip some teams off in a barren trade market year

 

After proving his health, just before the deadline, I Trade Hader to the Twins:

 

Hader > Trevor Larnach Jordan Balazovic Jhoan Duran Luis Arraez Ben Rortvedt

 

I believe the twins have the depth of prospects to absorb this loss, and the desire to make this deal, with the tribe coming on. But if not there’s other teams: Padres Dodgers Astros Rays Braves are 5 more at the top of my head that could look at hader as THE difference maker not just this year but over the next 4-5. Probably get just as much if we sell next year, but I’m not taking the chance on regression or injury.

 

And with these 5 prospects, I can keep some or trade some to better my team. I can stash these, and trade prospects already in my system for rentals to still compete THIS year.

 

Then I have 5-7 top 100 type prospects to develop or trade this offseason or next trade deadline to improve my team.

[Madhawk23]

They’re gonna need to prove hader is heathy to get the ridiculous package now. But yes, if Jesus has a couple hot weeks we could get quite a haul for a number of players all while probably playing better than they have been lately. Go Stearns! Rip some teams off in a barren trade market year

 

After proving his health, just before the deadline, I Trade Hader to the Twins:

 

Hader > Trevor Larnach Jordan Balazovic Jhoan Duran Luis Arraez Ben Rortvedt

 

I believe the twins have the depth of prospects to absorb this loss, and the desire to make this deal, with the tribe coming on. But if not there’s other teams: Padres Dodgers Astros Rays Braves are 5 more at the top of my head that could look at hader as THE difference maker not just this year but over the next 4-5. Probably get just as much if we sell next year, but I’m not taking the chance on regression or injury.

 

And with these 5 prospects, I can keep some or trade some to better my team. I can stash these, and trade prospects already in my system for rentals to still compete THIS year.

 

Then I have 5-7 top 100 type prospects to develop or trade this offseason or next trade deadline to improve my team.

 

I realize that Hader has some of the highest value on our team, but why would we trade away a guy that is one of the biggest bullpen weapons in baseball - and someone that I think we still have under team control for another 4 years? On a team with a window to compete now? There's just no way I'm trading a Josh Hader right now, unless if a team like the Braves wants to offer up some ridiculous package that includes Pache, Anderson, Allard, etc. Then, maybe I'd consider it if I were Stearns. Otherwise, it just isn't happening.

[Eye Black]

After taking a closer look, I think the lack of an ability to do August waiver trades this year is going to limit the possibility that the Brewers are sellers in any capacity. They only have 17 games remaining before the July trade deadline (afternoon of July 31). Anything short of going something like 5-12 or worse over those 17 games likely means the Brewers will be close enough to playoff contention that they won’t consider trading even the players on expiring contracts.

[Madhawk23]

Home games before break: 3 vs SF, 3 vs ATL, 3 vs CIN and 3 vs CHC

 

Road games before break: 4 vs AZ and 1 vs OAK

 

Wow - so that's 12 games at home and only 5 on the road before the break.

 

The way this team is trending going into the AS break, I guess anything is possible the remainder of this month - but with all of those home games, it's hard to fathom anything worse than an 8-9 record in those 17 games. And, let's face it - even that record would be a major disappointment.

 

Cubs have home series vs PIT, CIN and SD and then road series against SF, MIL and one game vs STL. It's certainly possible that this Cubs team could catch fire out of the gates and put together a 12-4 stretch in those games. If both of those scenarios were to play out, then we'd find ourselves 5 games back heading into the trade deadline. Considering that we are in a "win now" window, and also the fact that the Brewers made up 5 games just last September, I've got to agree that it seem awfully unlikely that we'll be in any position to be a seller at the deadline this year.

[Madhawk23]

Home games before break: 3 vs SF, 3 vs ATL, 3 vs CIN and 3 vs CHC

 

Road games before break: 4 vs AZ and 1 vs OAK

 

Wow - so that's 12 games at home and only 5 on the road before the break.

 

The way this team is trending going into the AS break, I guess anything is possible the remainder of this month - but with all of those home games, it's hard to fathom anything worse than an 8-9 record in those 17 games. And, let's face it - even that record would be a major disappointment.

 

Cubs have home series vs PIT, CIN and SD and then road series against SF, MIL and one game vs STL. It's certainly possible that this Cubs team could catch fire out of the gates and put together a 12-4 stretch in those games. If both of those scenarios were to play out, then we'd find ourselves 5 games back heading into the trade deadline. Considering that we are in a "win now" window, and also the fact that the Brewers made up 5 games just last September, I've got to agree that it seem awfully unlikely that we'll be in any position to be a seller at the deadline this year.

[pacopete4]

Hopefully it doesn’t come to it but if it does, we sure have quite a few pieces to trade to restock our farm a bit:

 

-Moustakas & Grandal: Both basically on 1-year deals but having great seasons and could help any team in the mix.

 

-Orlando Arica: This one would be hard for me but with Dubon doing what he is doing, it could make Arcia available in a trade. What is Arcia worth? That’s a hard one. It would probably vary greatly from GM to GM. An Arcia trade could set off a Dubon-Hiura up the middle for years to come. (And also keep Perez around)

 

-Eric Thames: Having a very nice season for us and could provide a power source for a playoff bound team.

 

-Zach Davies: Depending on his hopeful rebound, he could be a nice arm for someone looking for depth.

 

-Jhoulys Chacin: Again, all would be dependent on if he returns to form but had playoff experience and could provide depth to a competing team.

 

I want Chacin, Moose and Grandal moves for sure. And it’d be great if we could find someone on Thames and/or possibly Davies.

[Brewcrewin07]

Hopefully it doesn’t come to it but if it does, we sure have quite a few pieces to trade to restock our farm a bit:

 

-Moustakas & Grandal: Both basically on 1-year deals but having great seasons and could help any team in the mix.

 

-Orlando Arica: This one would be hard for me but with Dubon doing what he is doing, it could make Arcia available in a trade. What is Arcia worth? That’s a hard one. It would probably vary greatly from GM to GM. An Arcia trade could set off a Dubon-Hiura up the middle for years to come. (And also keep Perez around)

 

-Eric Thames: Having a very nice season for us and could provide a power source for a playoff bound team.

 

-Zach Davies: Depending on his hopeful rebound, he could be a nice arm for someone looking for depth.

 

-Jhoulys Chacin: Again, all would be dependent on if he returns to form but had playoff experience and could provide depth to a competing team.

 

I want Chacin, Moose and Grandal moves for sure. And it’d be great if we could find someone on Thames and/or possibly Davies.

 

Please STOP...they are NOT going to sell..ZERO chance of that happening, UNLESS they are say 7-8 games back by the deadline(which isn't going to happen). You don't tell the fans you're selling after what you did in the offseason to compete this year.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Hopefully it doesn’t come to it but if it does, we sure have quite a few pieces to trade to restock our farm a bit:

 

-Moustakas & Grandal: Both basically on 1-year deals but having great seasons and could help any team in the mix.

 

-Orlando Arica: This one would be hard for me but with Dubon doing what he is doing, it could make Arcia available in a trade. What is Arcia worth? That’s a hard one. It would probably vary greatly from GM to GM. An Arcia trade could set off a Dubon-Hiura up the middle for years to come. (And also keep Perez around)

 

-Eric Thames: Having a very nice season for us and could provide a power source for a playoff bound team.

 

-Zach Davies: Depending on his hopeful rebound, he could be a nice arm for someone looking for depth.

 

-Jhoulys Chacin: Again, all would be dependent on if he returns to form but had playoff experience and could provide depth to a competing team.

 

I want Chacin, Moose and Grandal moves for sure. And it’d be great if we could find someone on Thames and/or possibly Davies.

 

Please STOP...they are NOT going to sell..ZERO chance of that happening, UNLESS they are say 7-8 games back by the deadline(which isn't going to happen). You don't tell the fans you're selling after what you did in the offseason to compete this year.

 

This is a fan message board ... it's all opinion. And yeah, if this team keeps losing winnable games nearly every night, it is quite likely in their best interest to sell some of the short-termers and reload for next year. No one (well, no one with any sense anyway) is talking about dealing Yelich, Hader, Woodruff or Huira.

[pacopete4]

Please STOP...they are NOT going to sell..ZERO chance of that happening, UNLESS they are say 7-8 games back by the deadline(which isn't going to happen). You don't tell the fans you're selling after what you did in the offseason to compete this year.

 

This is a fan message board ... it's all opinion. And yeah, if this team keeps losing winnable games nearly every night, it is quite likely in their best interest to sell some of the short-termers and reload for next year. No one (well, no one with any sense anyway) is talking about dealing Yelich, Hader, Woodruff or Huira.

 

Correct. I’m looking at short term moves to hopefully make gains for a system that needs it. We can go grab Grandal and/or Moose in the offseason again but grabbing some system depth right now is looking like the best case scenario for this club.

[Outlander]

Hopefully it doesn’t come to it but if it does, we sure have quite a few pieces to trade to restock our farm a bit:

 

-Moustakas & Grandal: Both basically on 1-year deals but having great seasons and could help any team in the mix.

 

-Orlando Arica: This one would be hard for me but with Dubon doing what he is doing, it could make Arcia available in a trade. What is Arcia worth? That’s a hard one. It would probably vary greatly from GM to GM. An Arcia trade could set off a Dubon-Hiura up the middle for years to come. (And also keep Perez around)

 

-Eric Thames: Having a very nice season for us and could provide a power source for a playoff bound team.

 

-Zach Davies: Depending on his hopeful rebound, he could be a nice arm for someone looking for depth.

 

-Jhoulys Chacin: Again, all would be dependent on if he returns to form but had playoff experience and could provide depth to a competing team.

 

I want Chacin, Moose and Grandal moves for sure. And it’d be great if we could find someone on Thames and/or possibly Davies.

 

Please STOP...they are NOT going to sell..ZERO chance of that happening, UNLESS they are say 7-8 games back by the deadline(which isn't going to happen). You don't tell the fans you're selling after what you did in the offseason to compete this year.

Come on, they are a couple of losses from being a below 500 team, there is more than a zero chance of selling. Why so angry that somebody has a different opinion than you?

[brewmann04]

I think they will be standing pat no major move IMO

[JohnBriggs12]

I would listen on Moose and Grandal and perhaps Chacin or Anderson. They'd be foolish not to if they're even 5 back in the division and a couple back in the wild card. Aguliar and Thames aren't going to bring back much. First base/DH market isn't that strong and neither are huge upgrades. I don't think it would be a signal that they are going full rebuild. They may still try to add help in the pen not just for this year but next. That problem has to be fixed for 2020 too.

 

It's not like trading either of those guys will necessarily diminish this year's team that much if Shaw returns to his old self and Frietas' AAA numbers aren't a mirage.

[MrTPlush]

I think they will be standing pat no major move IMO

 

I think they are trending more towards some minor tweaks. A bullpen guy or a bench bat...maybe someone more major if they are controllable. I would doubt the later though.

 

I still think selling is silly...but we are trending towards below .500. A that point and having two teams in front of us trading Grandal/Moustakas is pretty legit of a thought. They have time though to go on a streak.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think they will be standing pat no major move IMO

 

I suppose if the goal is to finish around 80-85 wins, they could probably do that with the current squad. I have a hard time seeing that as a goal of any team, though.

 

I personally ebb and flow on what I think they should do, but considering they are still squarely in the playoff hunt, I think they should be buyers. This is a team that still has the offensive firepower to go on a run, and the starting pitching has been very good the last couple weeks. Grab a couple solid bullpen arms, and get a few more guys in the lineup hitting more consistently, and I think they could look like a completely different team pretty quick.

[homer]

I think a case study in when NOT to go for it is last year's Pirates team.

[Jopal78]

I just don’t see a sell off since the organization has really marketed themselves as finishing one game short of the World Series. Expectations were raised to such heights that selling off and essentially playing out the string with two months to go is probably unpalatable to the front office.

 

I can see some deadline moves like in years past: acquiring Scott Linebrink, acquiring Jonathon Braxton. Dominant relievers on the backside of their careers, or hitters like Gerardo Parra and Felipe Lopez solid of unspectacular hitters with speed.