Kirby Yates?

[ebmackenzie]

SDP is sub.500 as of now and 4th in the NLWest. They are not going to overtake the LADodgers but with the wildcard, anything may happen. I think they are thinking about the future and they have a lot of hard throwing talent that they can use to close games with.

 

1.5 years of KYates would be pricey, but it would allow Hader to drift down out of the closer spot and be more flexible like last year. Additionally, Yates, Hader, (pickup the option on) JJeffress, and get Knebel back is a heck of a back end of a bullpen for 2020.

 

Here is the hard part...it is going to be costly.

 

I say this because it is a win now situation and we already have PHenry at the same minor league post and we just drafted a lot of catchers but...Feliciano would a starting place and probably involve Supak, Grisham, and another for .85WHIP and 15+K/9IP through the end of 2020.

[adambr2]

The suggested offer probably isn't nearly enough. The guys you listed are nice prospects but the Padres are almost certainly holding Yates unless there's a blue chip prospect heading back. We wouldn't do Hiura, and the gap after him is just too big to make it up in quantity. Maybe they could headline it around Corbin Burnes, but that's a huge maybe.

[JosephC]

Reports are the Padres aren't trading him, so if someone were to pry him away from the Padres, they would likely be paying a top price for him. He had his breakthrough in 2018, so it's likely the Padres would ignore everything that happened before then. In 2018 he was a 1.9 bWAR/fWAR player. Pro-rating this year out to a full season, and his bWAR/fWAR would project to a fairly staggering 3.9. Just to put in perspective how dominant Kirby has been this year, in 2018 Josh Hader was a 2.4 bWAR/fWAR pitcher with a 2.23 FIP and 2.43 ERA, whereas Kirby pro-rates to a 3.9 bWAR/fWAR pitcher with a 1.26 FIP and a 1.24 ERA. It's nearly impossible to think that a team could land a full 3.9 WAR value for a relief pitcher currently (unlike the Chapman/Miller craze that happened a few years back), but a fair price for Kirby would be to take and average of 2018 and a full 2019 season, which would put the WAR value at 2.9. That would make Kirby worth 4.5 wins over the rest of 2019 and 2020. 40.5 million in value minus an estimated 9.23 million in earnings puts his surplus value at roughly 31.3 million. I have Turang's surplus value at 20.9 million. There is probably no way the Brewers can get a deal done without starting with Turang. The numbers say a Yates for Turang + Ashby + Feliciano would probably be a pretty fair deal. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if the Padres would instead make a demand of Turang + Peralta + non-top 30 fringe prospect.