Is 1 month too early to look at run differential?

[rluzinski]

What if the Cubs don't play any one run games from here on out? That is possible to although very improbable. Just pointing out flaws in your theory since we don't know how many one run games they will be in.

 

I'm talking about what's likely to happen, not what's theoretically possible but has virtually no chance of actually occurring. Over 25% of all the MLB games are decided by 1 run.

[TuesdayWithRillo]

We will revisit this in July. That's for sure.

[rluzinski]

I looked at the Brewers raw stats (AB, hits, IP, etc...) and calculated the expected runs from them:

 

RS: 144 (133 actual)

RA: 122 (116 actual)

 

That's a pretty nice run differential. Using expected runs to get expect wins, we get a record of 15.7 - 11.3. The extra 2.3 wins the Brewers have "stolen" could be the result of the team's use of dominating relievers in close games or it could just be dumb luck. I won't pretend to know which.

 

If that expected record represented the teams' true talent, The Brewers would be expected to finish with 96 games (.581 win% for the rest of the way). I don't know if the Brewers are really THAT good yet but it's becoming harder and harder to for anyone to pretend this isn't an above average team.

 

For ONCE, no matter how I slice the numbers, things look good! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[SoCalBrewfan]

The extra 2.3 wins the Brewers have "stolen" could be the result of the team's use of dominating relievers in close games or it could just be dumb luck. I won't pretend to know which.

 

Don't forget the impact of having a brilliant tactical mind in the dugout, pushing just the right buttons at just the right time.

[AJAY]

From a CNNSI mailbag . . .

 

Count on the Brewers and the Yankees to swap winning percentages by the end of they year. The Yankees have scored 141 runs to their 126 runs allowed, putting them at a Pythagorean win/loss of 13-11. The Brewers, until their sweep of the Cardinals this week, had allowed more runs than they had scored (remember the '05 Nationals?).

-- Brad, Katy, Texas

 

Good point, Brad. I should have pointed out that the Yankees had managed to outscore their opponents in April -- not a huge sample, sure, but enough to make you believe they were not going to continue to be rotten. Remember the Red Sox last year? They were outscored early in the season, which led some people to doubt their lasting power, and they did end up fading down the stretch. The Brewers may be the same type of team, but the caveat here is the division in which they play. We're not talking a 95-win threshold here. I believe this will be another season where mid-80s win might get you first place in the NL Central.

 

sportsillustrated.cnn.com...index.html

[don1481]

Quote:

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Don't forget the impact of having a brilliant tactical mind in the dugout, pushing just the right buttons at just the right time.

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Shouldn't this be in blue...? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[rluzinski]

Count on the Brewers and the Yankees to swap winning percentages by the end of they year. The Yankees have scored 141 runs to their 126 runs allowed, putting them at a Pythagorean win/loss of 13-11. The Brewers, until their sweep of the Cardinals this week, had allowed more runs than they had scored (remember the '05 Nationals?)

 

Brad wants to take a small sample of 27 games worth of run differential and make it even smaller (by trimming off 3 games), just so he can come to the conclusion he wants to? That's bad math on top of bad math.

 

And if you want conclude that the Yankees' 13-11 pyth record is representative of their true true overall talent, they'll end the season 88-74, with a .543 winning%. Brad better hope it's not that simple, since the Yankees wouldn't even make the post season, much less get anywhere near the Brewer's current winning %.

 

I think people look at their favorite team's pythag. record and think that means they'll end up at that pace by the end of the season. You don't get a do-over on games; if you are behind your expected record, you've lost them for good.

[endaround]

People really don't seem to understand that. The RS-RA formula is used because it tends to give you a better idea of a teams talent that their record does. Meaning that Brewers are more likely to have a 58% winning percentage versus a 66% winning percentage GOING FORWARD. What has happened has happened. And its why Houston and St Louis are likely already done for the year.

[Team Canada]

The Brewers, until their sweep of the Cardinals this week, had allowed more runs than they had scored (remember the '05 Nationals?).

 

 

Um, hello? So you can just discount the series that happens to put them way back on the positive side, just so that your point holds? That's absurd.

[AJAY]

Yeah, it seemed odd to me that the three games against and the Cardinals wouldn't be counted, but yet any Yankees lopsided victory would count. Based on Russ's comments and my own thoughts, I sent in this note to the mailbag . . .

 

I am sorry, but the Brewers and Yankees will not be swapping winning percentages. You can't eliminate the three Brewers games against the Cardinals just to come to the conclusion that you want to. Any Brewers fan could choose to eliminate any three Yankees lopsided wins or any three lopsided Brewers losses just to make a point. But we are smarter than that and understand it doesn't work that way. I don't have a problem with you talking about run differential, but the reality is that the Brewers have indeed outscored their opponents and will not be under .500. You can't pick and choose which games count.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

And its why Houston and St Louis are likely already done for the year.

 

That is nonsense. Houston could have Roger Clemens and Jennings coming and St. Louis has Mulder and Carpenter coming. Both teams will make a run.

[Fatter than Joey]

Don't forget the impact of having a brilliant tactical mind in the dugout, pushing just the right buttons at just the right time.

 

Brewers' Brain trust

 

http://www.ageslibrary.com/temp/magic8ball.jpg

[endaround]

Quote:

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That is nonsense. Houston could have Roger Clemens and Jennings coming and St. Louis has Mulder and Carpenter coming. Both teams will make a run.

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No it isn't. If the Brewers play .500 ball for the rest of the season, they are at 90 wins. For Houston and St Louis to match that they have to win at a 58% clip going forward. There is nothing to suggest they have that type of talent. Yes they could get lucky. Or the Brewers could stumble greatly. But the future isn't good for either team, especially when Clemens decides to go to Boston.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Wasn't Houston 10 games under .500 at one point 2 years ago when they made the World Series? Based on your logic, the Twins would have been out by April last year and they won the AL Central. It's not out of the question for a team to win 58% of their games. You can never count a team out in April. If you want to talk talent, then look at Pujols. His numbers can only rise as the season goes on and Eckstein, Rolen, and Edmonds won't continue to be this bad. The Brewers have a great shot at this division, but let's not count teams out after one month.