Shane Greene

[adambr2]

The Tigers have made it pretty much known that they are open for business. One of the guys likely to be dealt is Shane Greene. Greene is a tough player to value, he doesn't have that strong of a track record. That being said, he's certainly been one of the most dominating relievers in baseball in 2019, and has the strikeout ability to profile as a late inning weapon in any role.

 

The extra appeal for Greene potentially is that he is under club control in 2020, so you'd potentially add him to a very talented bullpen in 2020 that would already include Hader, Jeffress, and likely the return of Knebel at some point.

 

Given the extra year of control for Greene and the very high demand for quality relief pitching I would expect the required price for Greene to be at least the level of a Peralta or Turang. Something centered around a Corey Ray type would probably have to be supplemented with strong additional pieces.

[JosephC]

He was a 0.4 bWAR/fWAR player in 2016, a 1.6 bWAR/fWAR player in 2017, a -0.3 bWAR/fWAR player in 2018, and is pro-rated to be a 2.4 bWAR/fWAR player this season. Maybe Greene has figured it all out and will be a dominating reliever from this point forward, but he has the history of a volatile up-and-down reliever.

 

Very likely the Tigers would try to get about 2.5 WAR per season type value back for him, but all the numbers from 2017-2019 show that he should be valued more in the 1.2 WAR range. Just hard to get over the fact that he was a negative bWAR/fWAR player in 2018. It was also surprising to see that he got a raise from 1.95 million in 2018 to 4 million in 2019 considering how bad he was in 2018 (5.12 ERA, 4.61 FIP, 1.37 WHIP). While the bigger salary helps in terms of pushing down his surplus value, if he's a good year/bad year type pitcher, the Brewers could get stuck with a bad reliever earning 7.5 million next year and that salary is not out of the question with the season he is currently having.

 

I'd just use the 2017 to 2019 numbers and conclude he is a 1.2 WAR player. So he should be good for 0.7 WAR for the remainder of this year and 1.2 WAR next year, 1.9 WAR total. He will make roughly 2.4 million for the remainder of this year, and I would guess 7 million for next year. 1.9 * 9 million = 17.1 million in total value - 9.4 million salary estimate = 7.7 million in surplus value. Fair return out of the Brewers system would be something like Ashby plus Bello for Greene. If the Tigers can pry 2 WAR per season from someone, that would result in about 19.4 million in surplus value. I'd put Turang's surplus value at 20.9 million. I very much doubt if the Brewers would remain players in this if the price got that high. I don't see them dealing Turang for Greene or even selling low on Ray and doing something like Ray + Ashby for Greene, but it's not crazy to think the price could get bid up to those levels based on what Greene has done so far this year. But he's been so volatile, it will be interesting to see what the Tigers could get for him. Looks like an ideal "sell high" opportunity for them.

[KeithStone53151]

I'm a bit familiar with Greene. His arsenal is sinker, cutter, slider. It's all hard stuff and very very geared towards getting RH hitters out. He would be a good complement to Hader and would probably a better high leverage option than Jeffress. Just be aware that he's probably going to struggle a bit against LH hitters. That said, I think I like the idea of Ashby + Bello type return for him. Depending on the market, they might get a bit more considering the team control...but I can't see them getting up into the Supak/Grisham/Ray/Turang territory.

[adambr2]

I wouldn't have an issue giving up Ray, but I am probably lower on him than most. I think he's a bust and would just like to get some value for him while we still can.

 

And yes I know I could still be wrong about Ray, just my opinion on him.