Matthew Boyd

[OldHeidelberg]

Am I wrong to think if Boyd is worth that much, then Woodruff should be worth even more? The breakout numbers for each are very, very similar this year. Woodruff is younger, has more club control and had better numbers coming into 2019.

 

I'm not suggesting trading Woodruff, just speaking in terms of valuation.

 

FWIW values from the trade value site:

 

Woodruff 29.5

Boyd 34

Davies 31.1

 

Woodruff's value has to be skyrocketing with every start but I would say these numbers are pretty up to date since they clearly reflect this seasons performance. No way I would trade Woody for Boyd, the years of control makes a huge difference.

[adambr2]

To me Woodruff seems really undervalued, Davies seems really overvalued and Boyd seems about right.

 

In no universe is Davies worth more than Woodruff and I would easily trade Davies with whatever middling prospect is worth 3 to land Boyd but would not trade Woodruff for Boyd.

 

I understand these aren't a perfect science and data is constantly changing and I'm sure impossible to keep up with. 2 months ago Davies probably was leading the NL in ERA and Woodruff was still struggling.

[OldHeidelberg]

Yeah, it's pretty tough to keep something like that up to date. But I do wonder if the values fluctuate as much as we think. Does a guy with Davies track record really become worthless after 3 bad starts? Not that anyone said that but I do think we have that sort of perception when players struggle for a period.

[adambr2]

I'm not saying Zach Davies is worthless, just that he's not worth much. I felt the same way when he was leading the NL in ERA.

 

He's got a career FIP and xFIP right in line with guys like Jhoulys Chacin and Chase Anderson.

 

While I'm not saying guys like this are a dime a dozen, they aren't that valuable, either. We've been filling our rotation with pitchers of this ilk for years and they're pretty easily available. Guys like Gio Gonzalez and Wade Miley are available these days on short deals in free agency for a few million bucks.

 

Woodruff is the only guy in our current rotation whose stuff, peripherals, upside, cost control and production all translates into a coveted asset. The other guys are just filler

[Brew crew 92]

I'm not saying Zach Davies is worthless, just that he's not worth much. I felt the same way when he was leading the NL in ERA.

 

He's got a career FIP and xFIP right in line with guys like Jhoulys Chacin and Chase Anderson.

 

While I'm not saying guys like this are a dime a dozen, they aren't that valuable, either. We've been filling our rotation with pitchers of this ilk for years and they're pretty easily available. Guys like Gio Gonzalez and Wade Miley are available these days on short deals in free agency for a few million bucks.

 

Woodruff is the only guy in our current rotation whose stuff, peripherals, upside, cost control and production all translates into a coveted asset. The other guys are just filler

 

To the inside baseball world, scouts, front office, I would argue Woodruff right at this second, is valued as high as Walker Buehler, or any other young stud pitcher we can think of.

[JosephC]

Am I wrong to think if Boyd is worth that much, then Woodruff should be worth even more? The breakout numbers for each are very, very similar this year. Woodruff is younger, has more club control and had better numbers coming into 2019.

 

I'm not suggesting trading Woodruff, just speaking in terms of valuation.

 

FWIW values from the trade value site:

 

Woodruff 29.5

Boyd 34

Davies 31.1

 

Woodruff's value has to be skyrocketing with every start but I would say these numbers are pretty up to date since they clearly reflect this seasons performance. No way I would trade Woody for Boyd, the years of control makes a huge difference.

 

At first I thought the Woodruff/Boyd numbers were crazy low. But they might be adjusting those numbers down based on the volatility of pitching and the fact that neither of these guys have a long MLB track record of success. I was just thinking back on how great Gallardo looked in stretches when he first came to the majors, and he turned into real solid pitcher but never really achieved ace status. And Gallardo's early work was done as a 21 year old, whereas Woodruff is in his age 26 season and Boyd is in his age 28 season. I still think those numbers are crazy low because as a Brewer GM I would require well over 2 times that value to move Woodruff, and if I was the Tigers GM I would require just under 2 times that value to move Boyd...but maybe the majority of the league just wouldn't see it the way I do.

 

We also have to remember that ALL players are not being updated continuously and ALL values will not be in "real time." It's just like the prospect lists at MLB.com. At the beginning of the year, many Brewer fans likely thought that putting Grisham in the top 30 may have been a bit generous. Now the fact that he's 22 spots behind Lucas Erceg looks completely ridiculous. But I haven't seen anybody get wound up about it, because everyone knows that will all be fixed when the list gets updated in early August (I assume they will wait to do it after the trade deadline). People have to remember this same thing when looking at the trade value site....numbers will probably look a little low for guys who are currently doing real well and numbers will probably look a little high for guys who are currently in a slump.

[OldHeidelberg]

 

At first I thought the Woodruff/Boyd numbers were crazy low. But they might be adjusting those numbers down based on the volatility of pitching and the fact that neither of these guys have a long MLB track record of success. I was just thinking back on how great Gallardo looked in stretches when he first came to the majors, and he turned into real solid pitcher but never really achieved ace status. And Gallardo's early work was done as a 21 year old, whereas Woodruff is in his age 26 season and Boyd is in his age 28 season. I still think those numbers are crazy low because as a Brewer GM I would require well over 2 times that value to move Woodruff, and if I was the Tigers GM I would require just under 2 times that value to move Boyd...but maybe the majority of the league just wouldn't see it the way I do.

 

We also have to remember that ALL players are not being updated continuously and ALL values will not be in "real time." It's just like the prospect lists at MLB.com. At the beginning of the year, many Brewer fans likely thought that putting Grisham in the top 30 may have been a bit generous. Now the fact that he's 22 spots behind Lucas Erceg looks completely ridiculous. But I haven't seen anybody get wound up about it, because everyone knows that will all be fixed when the list gets updated in early August (I assume they will wait to do it after the trade deadline). People have to remember this same thing when looking at the trade value site....numbers will probably look a little low for guys who are currently doing real well and numbers will probably look a little high for guys who are currently in a slump.

 

I think it is probably lack of the track record that keep Boyd and Woodruff's values where they are. Keep in mind Woodruff was a good but not elite prospect, as hard as he throws his fastball it isn't unhittable like Hader's. The fangraphs article last week broke it down pretty well, his improvement has been throwing more two seamers and just generally having a better pitch mix. So it's not like he is a Strasburg type talent who is finally putting it together, he needs to prove it longer before teams are going to value him like a TOR starter. I do agree with you about what it would take for the Brewers to even listen to offers right now.

 

With Boyd he has been a JAG starter before this year and doesn't have elite stuff either, I think they have his value just about right but I am just going off his stats I don't even know if I have ever seen him pitch. The K rate is impressive.

[JosephC]

Good post OldHeidelberg, it made me think about Woodruff's valuation a bit more. One way to look at Woodruff's value is that...I think at his height of prospect status he ranked about #80 on the top 100 lists. I don't remember seeing him get much higher than that. #80 pitcher has just under 20 million in surplus value on my chart. Woodruff's value likely dipped some after his MLB debut in 2017 and bounced back after his strong finish to last year...maybe back to the #80 value he initially came into the league with (at the end of 2018, he was a 4.22 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.84 FIP pitcher). And even when looking at 2019, so far Woodruff has had one great month this season in terms of actual run prevention. 1 start in March = 3.60 ERA. April = 5.47 ERA. May = 1.36 ERA. June = 4.78 ERA (how many Brewer fans would have guessed his June ERA is 4.78? I would have guess at least a full 1.50 run less). Woodruff had one really bad start to begin June, but his June ERA is 3.74 even if we pretend that bad outing didn't even exist. Obviously the peripherals have been way better than the ERA. So back to the surplus value discussion...if Woodruff "maintained" his highest prospect status when entering this season, then he has tacked on 10 million in value so far through 102 innings of work, which means he could tack on another 10 million in value through the rest of the season even though the controlling team will lose 1 season of control over that timeframe. 20 plus million increase in surplus value minus one year of control....that seems like a fast riser to me.

 

Again, I'd need way more than 2 times the assigned 29.5 million of surplus value to be tempted to trade Woodruff. But when you look at the perspective outlined in the previous paragraph, then maybe the 29.5 million dollar number isn't so out of line.

[homer]

The Houston Astros are interested in a trade for Matthew Boyd, but are unwilling to include Kyle Tucker in a deal with the Detroit Tigers.

 

Tucker, 22, hasn't appeared in a Major League game this season. He's hitting .274/.348/.606 with 24 home runs in 76 Triple-A games this season.

 

Boyd is under team control through the 2022 season.

 

JON MOROSI/MLB

[Wahoo Maniac]

We have a depth problem in our farm system that makes these deals really hard to get done. To me I think it is Hiura or nothing because no one really wants Ray or Dubon. Posters here don’t even really want Ray or Dubon and it’s obvious. Maybe we can make a deal with Turang but he’s a stretch as a headliner and we don’t have interesting throw in pieces, not without adding someone like Woodruff anyway.

I love Dubon and want him to be our starting MLB SS immediately. Ray is injured so he's difficult to gauage right now after his big AA season but he's close enough to knocking on the MLB door and has that talent.

 

That said, there's no way Boyd is bringing back an elite prospect. The Hiura's and Kyle Tucker's of the world are guys that head trades for 2-3yrs of control for guys like Thor and deGrom. Boyd is nowhere near that talent level nor has he performed at that level at any point over his career. Even if it's 1 prospect for Boyd I just don't see anybody giving that up for 3yrs of him given his past preformance. I like Boyd and think he should be a target but not at the price the Tigers are asking, which they're entitled to.

[JohnBriggs12]

We have a depth problem in our farm system that makes these deals really hard to get done. To me I think it is Hiura or nothing because no one really wants Ray or Dubon. Posters here don’t even really want Ray or Dubon and it’s obvious. Maybe we can make a deal with Turang but he’s a stretch as a headliner and we don’t have interesting throw in pieces, not without adding someone like Woodruff anyway.

I love Dubon and want him to be our starting MLB SS immediately. Ray is injured so he's difficult to gauage right now after his big AA season but he's close enough to knocking on the MLB door and has that talent.

 

That said, there's no way Boyd is bringing back an elite prospect. The Hiura's and Kyle Tucker's of the world are guys that head trades for 2-3yrs of control for guys like Thor and deGrom. Boyd is nowhere near that talent level nor has he performed at that level at any point over his career. Even if it's 1 prospect for Boyd I just don't see anybody giving that up for 3yrs of him given his past preformance. I like Boyd and think he should be a target but not at the price the Tigers are asking, which they're entitled to.

 

I think it might take a Peralta as the key piece or a Houser and a Supak.

[JosephC]

Boyd isn't bringing back a Tucker or Hiura, but his price will be way higher than having Peralta as a key piece. Currently sits at a 3.58 FIP and 1.09 WHIP and a very impressive 6.45 K/BB ratio. And he'll be a hot name because strikeouts are king in the current environment and his 11.42 K/9 is 6th best among qualifying pitchers. Only other qualifying pitcher in the top 10 in K/9 that has a chance to be moved is Robbie Ray. Prospects sitting around #30 on the top 100 lists are definitely not out of the question here. Brewers would likely have to start with Turang and put in three more real quality pieces to be competitive. Most likely something like Turang AND Burnes/Peralta (Tiger's choice) AND Lutz AND Ashby/Feliciano. If the Tigers are more interested in a quantity over quality deal, then this type of offer may be competitive. If the Tigers want to go with one big prospect piece and a couple of other minor pieces, then the Brewers are probably already out because Hiura ranks too highly and Turang doesn't rank highly enough.

[HiAndTight]

Who actually said that? Who actually said we'd get him for those two players? You do realize we have more than 3 players in our farm system?

 

Literally the article in the first couple of posts which you would've realized had you not been so mad about me thinking that a couple of mediocre at best prospects would be enough for a guy who's nearly produced 3 WAR already with 3 more years of control.

 

 

No, it literally did not. It did NOT say we could trade Boyd for those TWO players. It mentioned those two players AMONG the players we could trade for Boyd. Show me where it says, "The Tigers would trade Boyd for Dubon and Ray."

 

So it literally did NOT say that and while your over the top....schtick may sometimes be warranted on here, it feels it's pretty much the go-to move now.

 

Also, Boyd does NOT equal Verlander in his prime. He's a nice pitcher. Not some superstar that would change the fate of franchises.

[HiAndTight]

I'm not saying Zach Davies is worthless, just that he's not worth much. I felt the same way when he was leading the NL in ERA.

 

He's got a career FIP and xFIP right in line with guys like Jhoulys Chacin and Chase Anderson.

 

While I'm not saying guys like this are a dime a dozen, they aren't that valuable, either. We've been filling our rotation with pitchers of this ilk for years and they're pretty easily available. Guys like Gio Gonzalez and Wade Miley are available these days on short deals in free agency for a few million bucks.

 

Woodruff is the only guy in our current rotation whose stuff, peripherals, upside, cost control and production all translates into a coveted asset. The other guys are just filler

 

To the inside baseball world, scouts, front office, I would argue Woodruff right at this second, is valued as high as Walker Buehler, or any other young stud pitcher we can think of.

 

 

I would be willing to bet you a significant amount of money he is not considered to be in the group with Walker Buehler.

 

It's always that extra step or 4 too many. Brandon Woodruff is great. Walker Buheler has been better and is younger. Better production+more talent+younger=more value. At least it does as long as their team control is the same and they are.

 

I don't believe anyone wouldn't take any pitcher we've got and trade him for Buehler really without giving it a second thought..and take about .02 seconds to decide to do so.

[Brew crew 92]

I'm not saying Zach Davies is worthless, just that he's not worth much. I felt the same way when he was leading the NL in ERA.

 

He's got a career FIP and xFIP right in line with guys like Jhoulys Chacin and Chase Anderson.

 

While I'm not saying guys like this are a dime a dozen, they aren't that valuable, either. We've been filling our rotation with pitchers of this ilk for years and they're pretty easily available. Guys like Gio Gonzalez and Wade Miley are available these days on short deals in free agency for a few million bucks.

 

Woodruff is the only guy in our current rotation whose stuff, peripherals, upside, cost control and production all translates into a coveted asset. The other guys are just filler

 

To the inside baseball world, scouts, front office, I would argue Woodruff right at this second, is valued as high as Walker Buehler, or any other young stud pitcher we can think of.

 

 

I would be willing to bet you a significant amount of money he is not considered to be in the group with Walker Buehler.

 

It's always that extra step or 4 too many. Brandon Woodruff is great. Walker Buheler has been better and is younger. Better production+more talent+younger=more value. At least it does as long as their team control is the same and they are.

 

I don't believe anyone wouldn't take any pitcher we've got and trade him for Buehler really without giving it a second thought..and take about .02 seconds to decide to do so.

 

All your points are correct, except I would argue no pitcher in baseball is improving as quickly as Woodruff, with his trajectory being what it is, he’ll surpass Buehler any start now.

[OnTheBlack]

All your points are correct, except I would argue no pitcher in baseball is improving as quickly as Woodruff, with his trajectory being what it is, he’ll surpass Buehler any start now.

 

 

I think the BEST we could reasonably hope for is that he becomes as good as Buehler. I don't know how he'd surpass him unless Buehler regresses. Also, as pointed out, Buehler is younger. So why wouldn't HE continue to improve?

 

Buehler's stuff is better. Probably the best in the game.

 

 

Woodruff's great, but you get way to eager to anoint guys aces or place them over others. I mean...we had 4 aces right now and Rassmussen was gonna be one next year. Have you EVER actually seen a team with 4 aces, much less 5?

Just enjoy Woody throwing the ball well.

[Brew crew 92]

All your points are correct, except I would argue no pitcher in baseball is improving as quickly as Woodruff, with his trajectory being what it is, he’ll surpass Buehler any start now.

 

 

I think the BEST we could reasonably hope for is that he becomes as good as Buehler. I don't know how he'd surpass him unless Buehler regresses. Also, as pointed out, Buehler is younger. So why wouldn't HE continue to improve?

 

Buehler's stuff is better. Probably the best in the game.

 

 

Woodruff's great, but you get way to eager to anoint guys aces or place them over others. I mean...we had 4 aces right now and Rassmussen was gonna be one next year. Have you EVER actually seen a team with 4 aces, much less 5?

Just enjoy Woody throwing the ball well.

 

Ok, that’s fair. I still believe when all is said and done, between Burnes Woody Peralta Houser Rasmussen > Multiple TORs.

[OldHeidelberg]

Am I wrong to think if Boyd is worth that much, then Woodruff should be worth even more? The breakout numbers for each are very, very similar this year. Woodruff is younger, has more club control and had better numbers coming into 2019.

 

I'm not suggesting trading Woodruff, just speaking in terms of valuation.

 

FWIW values from the trade value site:

 

Woodruff 29.5

Boyd 34

Davies 31.1

 

Woodruff's value has to be skyrocketing with every start but I would say these numbers are pretty up to date since they clearly reflect this seasons performance. No way I would trade Woody for Boyd, the years of control makes a huge difference.

 

Values today:

 

Woodruff 35.5

Boyd 34.4

Davies 30.2

 

So they do update this fairly regularly which is pretty cool.

[Jopal78]

Do you want to trade Hiura for Boyd? The guy is emerging and under team control until after 2022. There is zero chance he is dealt to Milwaukee without Hiura going over to Detroit.

 

Detroit has all the leverage in this situation. They don't have a real reason to trade Boyd, so I'm sure they will ask for Hiura and say no to any counter-offers of lesser Milwaukee prospects.

[OldHeidelberg]

Do you want to trade Hiura for Boyd? The guy is emerging and under team control until after 2022. There is zero chance he is dealt to Milwaukee without Hiura going over to Detroit.

 

Detroit has all the leverage in this situation. They don't have a real reason to trade Boyd, so I'm sure they will ask for Hiura and say no to any counter-offers of lesser Milwaukee prospects.

 

They reportedly asked for Tucker from Houston, a similar ranked prospect to Hiura, and were told no. If the Tigers take that stance they will be keeping Boyd, I wouldn't want the Brewers to pay what it will take even without Hiura. As I said above he was just another guy prior to the last 3 months.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Do you want to trade Hiura for Boyd? The guy is emerging and under team control until after 2022. There is zero chance he is dealt to Milwaukee without Hiura going over to Detroit.

 

Detroit has all the leverage in this situation. They don't have a real reason to trade Boyd, so I'm sure they will ask for Hiura and say no to any counter-offers of lesser Milwaukee prospects.

 

Detroit's only real reason to trade Boyd would be to sell him at an extreme high. He's basically a league average pitcher who is having a career year. That is a kind of guy smart teams in the midst of a rebuild capitalize on.

[mlloyd10]

Boyd's has a 6.03 ERA over his last 6 starts - Strike outs are there, but stating to get back to his career numbers

[Madhawk23]

Yeah, Boyd would cost us way too much - without much of a guarantee that the guy he was in the 1st half this year is the guy you would get moving forward. I would take a "hard pass" on Boyd right now because of those reasons.