Will Smith

[Madhawk23]

OK - with the Cubs getting Kimbrel last night, I think we need to go out and make a serious run at bringing back Will Smith. So, what would it take to get a deal done - sooner rather than waiting until the end of July? Guerra is starting to come back down to earth now, and we still don't know what we have in Burnes back there - not to mention JJ is simply not the same guy that we had for much of the regular season last year. Pairing Smith with Hader in the back end could be huge for this team, and we know the Giants are open for business already. Smith is a 3-4 month rental, but he's also probably going to be one of the biggest relief arms out on the market this summer. So, what would it take to get him right now? Would a Dubon, Zack Brown package get the discussion going? Is that too much for a guy like Smith, or too little?

[adambr2]

Dubon and Zack Brown is probably about exactly the kind of return it would take IMO. Dubon, sorry, he's just not much of a prospect. He's got a high probability of being an MLB player but his ceiling isn't much more than an Hernan Perez type. Career utility players just aren't great trade chips.

 

Brown would be the more coveted asset, and ideally you'd like to send someone else, but his value has taken a bit of a hit this year.

 

Brown+Dubon is probably about right. It seems like a lot, but it's just not a very good farm system. Smith is a high leverage lefty and even as a rental, they aren't cheap.

[Madhawk23]

Is Dubon/Brown enough to get the Giants to trade Will Smith to us this month, instead of waiting until the end of July? Probably not, right? I'm sure I'm speaking more out of frustrating right now after the Kimbrel news last night, but I'd love for us to counteract the Cubs move with one of our own here over the next week or so. I'm guessing we'd have to give up more though for Will Smith to get the Giants to move him now instead of waiting another month and a half.

[KeithStone53151]

Dubon/Brown is too much for half a season of a reliever. Is there any precedent to giving up two of a teams top 10 prospects for half a season of a non-Chapman caliber reliever in the last 5 years?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The Giants system is not good. If anything, it's pretty bottom heavy, so I imagine they are going to look for guys with solid upside who they would be able to promote quickly, with an eye on a quick rebuild and possibly contention in 2020-21. Dubon and Brown certainly fit that window, but Brown hasn't looked great this year after his breakout last season. If you're looking for guys with helium, pitchers like Aaron Ashby, Thomas Jankins or Trey Supak would be appealing. Drew Rasmussen is certainly looking the part of a potential late-inning reliever. Grisham is having a fine season and is rebuilding his prospect value.

 

As a rental, the Giants aren't going to be able to get a huge haul for Smith. I would think Grisham makes sense as a headliner, perhaps with either a lower level upside arm or potential bullpen piece added in. Maybe something like Grisham and Jankins, Derby or Miguel Sanchez?

[KeithStone53151]

Take a look at 2017 trade deadline reliever trades for some precedent, there are no rental reliever trades acquiring 2 prospects like Brown/Dubon. I feel like not enough people look at past trades for comparables, no sense in trying to reinvent the wheel or throw out names and see what feels right...or however you come up with this stuff. Look at past trades, plug in comparable Brewers...you're going to be way more accurate that way.

[adambr2]

Take a look at 2017 trade deadline reliever trades for some precedent, there are no rental reliever trades acquiring 2 prospects like Brown/Dubon. I feel like not enough people look at past trades for comparables, no sense in trying to reinvent the wheel or throw out names and see what feels right...or however you come up with this stuff. Look at past trades, plug in comparable Brewers...you're going to be way more accurate that way.

 

#1, yes, BUT markets fluctuate over time for many reasons, regardless of past precedence. Chapman for Torres was a pretty unprecedented trade when it was done, and I doubt any team would do it now.

 

#2, we also can't compare prospects straight up based on their organizational ranking, as your #5 prospect one year might only be as good as your #12 prospect in other years or in other systems. Just because Dubon is highly rated in our system doesn't mean he is very valued as a trade chip.

 

Looking at Soria for Medeiros+ last year, I'd say Medeiros probably had comparable value alone at that moment to what Brown is worth right now, and Smith is more valuable than Soria was.

[KeithStone53151]

Take a look at 2017 trade deadline reliever trades for some precedent, there are no rental reliever trades acquiring 2 prospects like Brown/Dubon. I feel like not enough people look at past trades for comparables, no sense in trying to reinvent the wheel or throw out names and see what feels right...or however you come up with this stuff. Look at past trades, plug in comparable Brewers...you're going to be way more accurate that way.

 

#1, yes, BUT markets fluctuate over time for many reasons, regardless of past precedence. Chapman for Torres was a pretty unprecedented trade when it was done, and I doubt any team would do it now.

 

#2, we also can't compare prospects straight up based on their organizational ranking, as your #5 prospect one year might only be as good as your #12 prospect in other years or in other systems. Just because Dubon is highly rated in our system doesn't mean he is very valued as a trade chip.

 

Looking at Soria for Medeiros+ last year, I'd say Medeiros probably had comparable value alone at that moment to what Brown is worth right now, and Smith is more valuable than Soria was.

 

Both guys grade out at 45-50 on most sites, takes the guesswork out. Medeiros was probably slightly less valuable than Brown at the time of trade as he had less of a track record and required a 40 man spot, also he had serious command issues that were improving but still existed. It's not a bad comparison, just saying I think Brown has a bit more value than Medeiros. I felt at the time that it was a bit of an overpay, but we were probably going to lose Medeiros anyways. This and the Moose trade were part of resolving the 40 man crunch. And Smith really isn't THAT much more valuable than Soria in my opinion. Not enough to warrant Brown AND Dubon. I could see maybe one and some lesser/younger pieces that are probably not on our top 30 but are having solid seasons in low a or instructional/rookie leagues when they start up. More likely, they try for a 2 for 1 with 2 prospects less valuable than both guys.

[JosephC]

I wouldn't just shoot for Will Smith, I'd shoot for landing two of the three: Smith, Sam Dyson, Tony Watson. Dyson would actually be target #1 here, as getting him plus one of the others would be adding 1 righty and 1 lefty. If the asking price was significantly lower for Watson rather than Smith, then I would actually prefer Watson as he also has a very solid track record. If Houser's recent performance continues, and he turns out to be a good MLB reliever starting now, having Houser + Dyson + Smith OR Watson really solidifies the Brewer's bullpen situation.

 

We probably just have to come to terms that relievers like this will require names like Ashby, Feliciano, Rasmussen, Supak...some combination of that tier of players going back to San Francisco. I thought Troy Stokes would be a perfect fit a month ago, but a .647 OPS has likely eliminated that. These quality relievers will not be moved for players like Diplan and Webb just because they are in the 10-20 range on the Brewer's prospect list. Take the guys in the #7-#15 range that have performed well this year and those are the most likely and reasonable candidates for both sides. Joey Meyer Bombs suggestions of Dubon and Brown are also reasonable and certainly not out of the question.

[MrTPlush]

I want nothing to do with Smith and for one reason only. I feel like that dude starts off hot and gets gassed out by the end of the freaking season way too often. I checked my feeling via splits:

 

2018:

First Half - 1.23 ERA

August - 3.38 ERA

September - 6.75 ERA

 

2017:

Injured******

 

2016:

Injured through May****

First Half - 2.12 ERA

July - 5.79 ERA

August - 5.59 ERA

September - 0.00 (8.2 innings in 13 appearances, so looks like he got match-ups galore just for a slight disclaimer)

 

2015:

First Half - 1.87 ERA

July - 7.00 ERA

August - 2.13 ERA

September - 3.65 ERA

 

2014:

First Half – 3.09 ERA

July – 14.54 ERA

August – 6.52 ERA

September – 0.00 ERA

 

 

I think I would probably take a pass on Will Smith unless he is pretty cheap. He tends to not do very well in the second half of the season.

[harrydalton]

I'd offer Phil Bickford and, since we no longer have Andrew Susac, Jacob Nottingham.

[Madhawk23]

I'd offer Phil Bickford and, since we no longer have Andrew Susac, Jacob Nottingham.

 

Ha ha! I love this offer! Hell, they are probably getting a better catching prospect in Nottingham than what we ended up getting in Susac!

[KeithStone53151]

That's enough seasons of sample that it isn't a completely ridiculous notion on Smith, a bit concerning he's so bad in the 2nd half...

 

I did a simple career stats search, he's over 100 OPS worse in the 2nd half than the 1st half. That's a really weird split.

[MrTPlush]

I did a simple career stats search, he's over 100 OPS worse in the 2nd half than the 1st half. That's a really weird split.

 

His stats in April/May/June are insane. You can almost never find a bad month and most of the time he is straight filthy. Then July hits and it gets super shaky for him.

[Austin Tatious]

I'd offer Phil Bickford and, since we no longer have Andrew Susac, Jacob Nottingham.

 

Funny. I wish. At least Bickford seems to be back on the mound for High Class A. He’s essentially made no progress since we got him. There’s talent there so let’s hope he gets his head out of his backside and we see some resurgence. I’d like to hear his velo numbers etc.