Cubs sign Craig Kimbrel (3 years / $43 million)

[Eye Black]

The Cubs are paying Kimbrel to come in and blow hitters away, not give up soft contact. Even in his one save, he allowed a two out ringing double and a walk, before getting Freddie Freeman on a hard hit ground ball.

 

 

I'm pretty sure teams are usually happy with both. Even Kimbrel at his best didn't blow everyone away.

 

 

If that was a Hader game, we'd be talking about how that wasn't on him at all. And if Hader had only thrown a few innings all year, we'd type out Relax in all caps.

At his best Kimbrel had a 100-mph fastball and led all relievers in baseball in swinging strike rate (19.4% in 2012; 19.8% in 2017).

 

His swinging strike rate this year (granted in only a few outings) is 12.3% which would be more than 4% below his career norm and the lowest mark of his career. That is still a fine SwStr%, but if he had enough appearances to qualify for the reliever leaderboard it would rank just outside the top 75 among all relievers.

 

I don’t think Kimbrel is going to have a Greg Holland type implosion, but I also don’t think he is going to be one of the most feared closers in baseball going forward.

[sveumrules]

Odds are, sadly, that the Cubs will do much better in the 2nd half. Fangraphs has them winning the division (rather easily, it looks).

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

FG has it at 54% Cubs, 25% Brewers to win the division.

BRef has it at 53% Cubs, 29% Brewers to win the division.

538 has it at 39% Cubs, 27% Brewers to win the division.

 

All three have us finishing 1-3 projected wins behind the Cubs.

 

We knew at the beginning of the season that it would probably come down to the wire & it still looks like it will.

[monkeyman343434]

CBS Sportsline projection has Cubs 45% Brewers 40% (86.8 wins to 86.0 wins)

[homer]

I think Fangraph’s projections are heavily based on run differential. Brewers have seemed to outperform that metric the last few years.

 

 

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If I recall correctly, the Brewers have exceeded FGs projections for at least 3 years in a row.

 

Exactly, which is why I look at particularly Fangraphs' projections with a pretty major gran of salt.

 

Is there a projection system you trust?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

Is there a projection system you trust?

 

No not really. Fangraphs consistently seems to be the worst of the bunch, though, so I think the criticism is warranted. I've always been a big "that's why they play the games" advocate.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Kimbrel now a run a of 6 straight scoreless appearances in which the Cubs are 6-0 while he has accumulated 5 saves. Four of those six wins were of the 1 run variety. Hopefully he's not back to being a dominant force but it's starting to look like he's really helping them.

[KeithStone53151]

I watched one of the saves, he looked very good. Fastball 97-98 consistently, got bad swings on his curve. Command wasn't pinpoint, but didn't walk anyone and didn't miss his spots super bad ever. That signing was not good for the Brewers.

[jjfanec]

Kimbrel is probably going to a solid addition for the Cubs. He has looked good lately. His last appearance he got a little lucky as the he walked two but the Padres got one out on the base paths.

[JosephC]

Last night was the perfect illustration of why I would never throw big money at a one-inning closer. Look at that trainwreck of an 8th inning. How many people actually thought the Cubs were going to hold that lead after Strop plunked Thames? Meanwhile the best, big-money player in the bullpen sits there and collects dust and the team loses the ballgame because it's not the right inning for him to pitch. Thank you very much Maddon!

[homer]

Last night was the perfect illustration of why I would never throw big money at a one-inning closer. Look at that trainwreck of an 8th inning. How many people actually thought the Cubs were going to hold that lead after Strop plunked Thames? Meanwhile the best, big-money player in the bullpen sits there and collects dust and the team loses the ballgame because it's not the right inning for him to pitch. Thank you very much Maddon!

 

He has some Yost-ish tendencies.

[jerichoholicninja]

Last night was the perfect illustration of why I would never throw big money at a one-inning closer. Look at that trainwreck of an 8th inning. How many people actually thought the Cubs were going to hold that lead after Strop plunked Thames? Meanwhile the best, big-money player in the bullpen sits there and collects dust and the team loses the ballgame because it's not the right inning for him to pitch. Thank you very much Maddon!

 

I fully expected the Brewer not to score because they are the Brewers and they excel at failing in those situations.

[sveumrules]

Last night was the perfect illustration of why I would never throw big money at a one-inning closer. Look at that trainwreck of an 8th inning. How many people actually thought the Cubs were going to hold that lead after Strop plunked Thames? Meanwhile the best, big-money player in the bullpen sits there and collects dust and the team loses the ballgame because it's not the right inning for him to pitch. Thank you very much Maddon!

 

I fully expected the Brewer not to score because they are the Brewers and they excel at failing in those situations.

 

According to the splits on BRef the Brewers batters are...

 

18% better than average in the 8th inning (480 PAs)

15% better than average when behind (1,524 PAs)

15% better than average with 2 outs & RISP (482 PAs)

5% better than average in "late/close" situations (671 PAs)

5% better than average with men on base (1,737 PAs)

 

They have been 26% worse than league average in 119 PAs with the bases loaded & 22% worse than average in 196 PAs with a runner on 3rd/less than 2 outs, so maybe that is what sticks in people's heads, but the larger samples indicate they have been above average in most of the situations present when we took the lead last night.

[Eye Black]

This is a fun stat (according to this Tweet)...

 

In 542 appearances before this season, Kimbrel had only given up multiple home runs in the same outing just once. In 12 games as a Cub, he's done it twice already.

[stalton]

Another fun stat. In 4.2 innings away from Wrigley Field , he has given up 8 runs for a whopping 15.43 ERA

[Eye Black]

I will continue with preface with maybe this is just the lack of Spring Training to build up arm strength, but if I was a Cubs fan this certainly wouldn’t make me feel great...

 

Mike Petriello of MLB.com[/b]"]What a disaster of a loss for the Cubs and Kimbrel. He averaged just 94.8 on his fastball tonight.

 

This is the concerning trend, obviously. It's difficult to know how to parse "give the man a minute, he didn't have a spring training" with "we saw some of it last year."

 

[DuWayne Steurer]

Touched on this in the game thread last night, but it bears mentioning here.

 

Last night was the perfect example of why Kimbrel just isn't/wasn't a good fit for the Brewers. 2 outs in the 8th with tying run in scoring position and a 1.000 OPS hitter up, and Maddon couldn't/wouldn't bring in his best reliever. Is that not the time of the game to bring in "your guy"? Well, you can't, because Kimbrel is strictly a 3 out, 9th inning closer. Kimbrel doesn't do 4 out closes, and because of it, the Brewers tied the game off of an inferior reliever.

 

Granted, the Cubs still ended up with a save situation for Kimbrel, and he blew it anyways, but the lack of flexibility in his role is exactly why I never wanted the guy to begin with.

[rickh150]

Touched on this in the game thread last night, but it bears mentioning here.

 

Last night was the perfect example of why Kimbrel just isn't/wasn't a good fit for the Brewers. 2 outs in the 8th with tying run in scoring position and a 1.000 OPS hitter up, and Maddon couldn't/wouldn't bring in his best reliever. Is that not the time of the game to bring in "your guy"? Well, you can't, because Kimbrel is strictly a 3 out, 9th inning closer. Kimbrel doesn't do 4 out closes, and because of it, the Brewers tied the game off of an inferior reliever.

 

Granted, the Cubs still ended up with a save situation for Kimbrel, and he blew it anyways, but the lack of flexibility in his role is exactly why I never wanted the guy to begin with.

 

Why could 't he come in in the 8th? If Maddon wanted to use him in the 8th for ONE EXTRA OUT, why couldn't he do this? Would Kimbrel refuse? I look at it as a matter of preference for Maddon, maybe keeping arms healthier, I don't know. If it's the playoffs, Kimbrel is in in the 8th.

[Lathund]

I don't like the idea of paying pretty much any reliever the kind of $16-18m AAV that the top closers have signed in recent years (Kimbrel, Davis, Jansen, Chapman etc), other than under certain circumstances like if I had the Yankees budget, or if it was the last piece to an already WS-calibre team. It makes even less sense when, as in the post above, that reliever can only perform with a 1-3 run lead in the 9th inning. The whole cult surrounding closers, and why they're paid so much, is that they can supposedly perform under pressure. But when said closer has his best stuff when it's, say, the top of the 9th with a 3-run lead against the 6-7-8 hitters, but melts down in a situation like 8th inning in a 1-run game with the 2-3-4 hitters up, that whole argument goes away. Whether it's that the player can't perform there, or doesn't want to, or if it's the manager who doesn't want to use him that way, the end result is the same.

 

Someone like Hader, who can pitch any time, in any situation, and for 6-9 outs if needs be, is someone you could pay that kind of money. But other than that I'd take two $8m type relievers, or 3 $5.3m ones or some other combination any day of the week over an elite closer.

[pacopete4]

Fun fact- we didn’t blow money on Kimbrel.

[young guns]

Touched on this in the game thread last night, but it bears mentioning here.

 

Last night was the perfect example of why Kimbrel just isn't/wasn't a good fit for the Brewers.

[sarcasm]Also a good example of why he would be a good fit,[/sarcasm] he blows saves.

[trwi7]

I wish they'd still lose something

 

They'll lose a lot of games in the 9th inning if he pitches like he did in the playoffs last year.

 

My apologies. I forgot to include games that go to extra innings.

[sveumrules]

It's definitely a good thing for the Cubs.

 

If I'm being totally impartial, it's tough to compare our lineup, rotation, and pen to the Cubs and find an area where we are better.

 

Kimbrel at 0-2, 5.68 ERA, -0.4 WAR, -0.59 WPA so far & is currently on the DL so some other relievers got to blow it for the Cubs tonight.

 

Just because he has been really good in the past & cost a lot of money doesn't definitely make it a good thing for the Cubs.

 

The Cubs may indeed have a superior lineup, rotation & pen, but their record is only one game better than our's at the moment.

[Oxy]

It's definitely a good thing for the Cubs.

 

If I'm being totally impartial, it's tough to compare our lineup, rotation, and pen to the Cubs and find an area where we are better.

 

Kimbrel at 0-2, 5.68 ERA, -0.4 WAR, -0.59 WPA so far & is currently on the DL so some other relievers got to blow it for the Cubs tonight.

 

Just because he has been really good in the past & cost a lot of money doesn't definitely make it a good thing for the Cubs.

 

The Cubs may indeed have a superior lineup, rotation & pen, but their record is only one game better than our's at the moment.

 

 

ALSO: when high-priced veterans suck (and are under contract for the foreseeable future) it's far more demoralizing than when Travis Shaw or Jesus Aguilar sucks.

[benji]

-.7 fWAR in 22 appearances or so. Impressive lol

 

 

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[stoutdude04]

Not to pick on any one person, but it's almost like...the guys in charge know more than we do, and it isn't always about pinching pennies.