Cubs sign Craig Kimbrel (3 years / $43 million)

[tmwiese55]

95 isn't impressive anymore but it's still well above average velocity. Unless the drop is due to an underlying injury I really don't see it being a big deal.

 

Yea it could very easily just be ramping up after the long delay. But, combine with his late season issues last year (don't recall if his velo was down) and 'could' be a bad sign. Still way too early to know or make anything of though

[MoreTrife]

Hope for the worst but expect the best hahaha

[Eye Black]

Kimbrel got the save for the Cubs today. His fastball was mostly 97-mph, so higher than previously reported. He got in a little trouble (double and a walk), but for it being his first MLB game action this year he looked pretty solid.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It's a small sample obviously, but Kimbrel's ERA with the Cubs so far is 13.50. I expect him to get better, but that isn't exactly a great start to his Cubs career.

[liveforoctober]

It's a small sample obviously, but Kimbrel's ERA with the Cubs so far is 13.50. I expect him to get better, but that isn't exactly a great start to his Cubs career.

 

I would argue this is a fantastic start to his Cubs career...

 

[Eye Black]

From MLB.com’s Mike Petriello...

 

This seems notable about Kimbrel tonight: Avg'd 94.9 MPH on his FB. (Max'd 96.1).

 

Best I can tell.. he's not had a game with FB velo under 95.0 since 2013.

 

Statcast Link

[JimH5]

I love it when Cubs fans are angry or despondent or bitter. It gives me great joy when they are miserable.

 

So Kimbrel's early woes are very satisfying to me.

 

He's never been anything but a true closer, so we'll see how and how often they use him going forward.

 

But tonight there is panic and disgust among Cubs fans. We can celebrate that.

[rickh150]

I love it when Cubs fans are angry or despondent or bitter. It gives me great joy when they are miserable.

 

So Kimbrel's early woes are very satisfying to me.

 

He's never been anything but a true closer, so we'll see how and how often they use him going forward.

 

But tonight there is panic and disgust among Cubs fans. We can celebrate that.

 

Happy 4th (loss in a row)..

[Greenleaf1]

Just watched the highlights of the 9th inning from last night, and holy crap that was NOT Kimbrel's fault.

 

Lazy fly ball to RF that Contreras made a terrible effort at and it hit off his glove, then an easy ground ball that would've scored a run anyways but Russell threw home instead of getting the out at 1st.

 

Then what should've been AT LEAST the 3rd out, an easy fly ball to left, ends up being the sac fly that wins the game.

 

As much as I'd love for Kimbrel to totally self destruct, this one's on the defense, which is equally fun I guess.

[JohnBriggs12]

Just watched the highlights of the 9th inning from last night, and holy crap that was NOT Kimbrel's fault.

 

Lazy fly ball to RF that Contreras made a terrible effort at and it hit off his glove, then an easy ground ball that would've scored a run anyways but Russell threw home instead of getting the out at 1st.

 

Then what should've been AT LEAST the 3rd out, an easy fly ball to left, ends up being the sac fly that wins the game.

 

As much as I'd love for Kimbrel to totally self destruct, this one's on the defense, which is equally fun I guess.

 

The Cubs are paying Kimbrel to come in and blow hitters away, not give up soft contact. Even in his one save, he allowed a two out ringing double and a walk, before getting Freddie Freeman on a hard hit ground ball.

[Eye Black]

Just watched the highlights of the 9th inning from last night, and holy crap that was NOT Kimbrel's fault.

 

Lazy fly ball to RF that Contreras made a terrible effort at and it hit off his glove, then an easy ground ball that would've scored a run anyways but Russell threw home instead of getting the out at 1st.

 

Then what should've been AT LEAST the 3rd out, an easy fly ball to left, ends up being the sac fly that wins the game.

 

As much as I'd love for Kimbrel to totally self destruct, this one's on the defense, which is equally fun I guess.

The ball to Contreras looked like a blunder because he got to the ball and didn’t make the play, but by Statcast metrics it had a 40% catch probability. He appeared to be positioned very deep (assume they were playing no doubles defense) on the right-handed hitting Jung Ho Kang, and ran a long distance to try to make the play near the right field line.

 

The play by Addison Russell to go home was a bone-headed decision, no doubt. He was playing deep in the infield because they had been instructed to concede the run and get the out. Russell admitted that he had made up his mind to go home before the play even developed which is extra mind-boggling since playing back in the infield there is very little chance a 2B is going to be able to get the out at home unless the ball is absolutely scolded.

 

The first two batters of the inning were when I actually thought Kimbrel looked at his worst. He was having trouble locating his fastball. He seemed to be throwing the fastball either a foot off the plate or right down the middle of the strike zone. He ultimately got a ground out on Newman to start the inning after an at-bat that I believe started out 2-0. He got away with a pitch to Diaz in the next at-bat that was 94-mph heater in the dead center of the zone before ultimately walking him.

 

It wasn’t a Kimbrel meltdown by any means, but it didn’t necessarily look sharp either.

[SRB]

I mean he barely pitched this season before they rushed him to the majors. Didn't he have like 3.0 IP total in the minors? It's not surprising that he's rusty out of the gate.

[BruisedCrew]

I really question that 40% catch probability. Contreras got to the ball and should have caught it. I don’t know what kind of jump he got, but it’s hard for me to believe that a catcher got as good a jump on the ball and covered as much ground as an average major league right fielder. And even then he should have caught it.

 

Regardless, it was a cheap, fly ball “hit”.

[Eye Black]

The irony is Contreras had two spectacular plays in the outfield earlier in the game including an absolute dart to throw out the tying run at home in the 8th inning.

[BruisedCrew]

I mean he barely pitched this season before they rushed him to the majors. Didn't he have like 3.0 IP total in the minors? It's not surprising that he's rusty out of the gate.

 

We’d better get our laughs in now because there’s a good chance he’ll be closing out games against the Brewers before long after their left handed starters shut down the offense for 8 innings.

 

Kimbrel’s ERA is going to be inflated for a long time because of the two cheap runs last night and the two HRs he gave up in the blowout loss on Monday. Even closers who aren’t trying to shake off rust often seem to have problems in those non save, low leverage situations.

[rickh150]

Odds are, sadly, that the Cubs will do much better in the 2nd half. Fangraphs has them winning the division (rather easily, it looks).

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

[Fear The Chorizo]

Odds are, sadly, that the Cubs will do much better in the 2nd half. Fangraphs has them winning the division (rather easily, it looks).

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

Well, that settles it - mightaswell sell right after the AS break if fangraphs says it's so. They've been so accurate of late predicting the NL central

[jjfanec]

Odds are, sadly, that the Cubs will do much better in the 2nd half. Fangraphs has them winning the division (rather easily, it looks).

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

Incredibly dependant on injuries. They have no real depth especially with starting pitching. They now have injuries in the rotation and they are not getting very good starts. Hamels could be out a little while. They have the lineup to win without great pitching. That is what they might have to do

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think Fangraphs has been pretty Cubs biased the last few years. Wouldn’t expect any difference this year.

[benji]

I think Fangraph’s projections are heavily based on run differential. Brewers have seemed to outperform that metric the last few years.

 

 

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[Lathund]

I think Fangraphs has been pretty Cubs biased the last few years. Wouldn’t expect any difference this year.

 

Projections aren't "biased", the spreadsheets don't know which teams players belong to. Or that they're baseball players to begin with. The only manual part is distributing the expected playing time. A projection system can only look at what players have done in the past and project from there, taking into account aging curves and regression. A long track record of consistent performance will lead a projection system to treat that as a player's actual skill level, and react slower to changes in performance than for someone with a shorter track record. So when Aguilar slumps the projections will adjust downwards more and/or faster than if Rizzo had been in that same slump. Largely because it wouldn't have bought in fully to his breakout to begin with. This goes for instance for the Cubs starting pitching; They have a long track record, and whatever is ailing Quintana and Darvish isn't something that a projection system would catch (yet), you'd not expect more than a gradual age-related decline. And the other side of that coin is someone like Yelich who had 2800 PAs with Miami with a SLG of .432. It won't start believing overnight that his now .700+ SLG is sustainable, but will gradually move in that direction. Cubs just happen to have more of the type of players a projection system could end up overrating, and Brewers have a bunch of hard to project players, and those players will be affected more by regressing them towards the mean.

 

And "Fangraphs" aren't doing anything in this case; they simply host three different projection systems, created independently of Fangraphs, and their playoff projections are based off combining two of them. When you also consider that projection systems don't really primarily project wins, but rather runs, it's even easier to see why it'd still believe more in the Cubs. Because while the records are identical, the Cubs are still outperforming the Brewers in runs scored/allowed, and are underperforming their RD, while the Brewers area outperformning theirs.

[stalton]

I think Fangraph’s projections are heavily based on run differential. Brewers have seemed to outperform that metric the last few years.

 

 

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If I recall correctly, the Brewers have exceeded FGs projections for at least 3 years in a row.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think Fangraph’s projections are heavily based on run differential. Brewers have seemed to outperform that metric the last few years.

 

 

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If I recall correctly, the Brewers have exceeded FGs projections for at least 3 years in a row.

 

Exactly, which is why I look at particularly Fangraphs' projections with a pretty major gran of salt.

[Ennder]

I think Fangraph’s projections are heavily based on run differential. Brewers have seemed to outperform that metric the last few years.

 

 

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If I recall correctly, the Brewers have exceeded FGs projections for at least 3 years in a row.

 

Exactly, which is why I look at particularly Fangraphs' projections with a pretty major gran of salt.

 

The Brewers have had a number of players play way outside expectations each of the past 2 seasons so this doesn't really change my opinion at all. Especially last year they had a charmed season overall. I also think Counsell is in the top 25% of managers and squeaks a few extra wins out of the team.

[OnTheBlack]

Just watched the highlights of the 9th inning from last night, and holy crap that was NOT Kimbrel's fault.

 

Lazy fly ball to RF that Contreras made a terrible effort at and it hit off his glove, then an easy ground ball that would've scored a run anyways but Russell threw home instead of getting the out at 1st.

 

Then what should've been AT LEAST the 3rd out, an easy fly ball to left, ends up being the sac fly that wins the game.

 

As much as I'd love for Kimbrel to totally self destruct, this one's on the defense, which is equally fun I guess.

 

The Cubs are paying Kimbrel to come in and blow hitters away, not give up soft contact. Even in his one save, he allowed a two out ringing double and a walk, before getting Freddie Freeman on a hard hit ground ball.

 

 

I'm pretty sure teams are usually happy with both. Even Kimbrel at his best didn't blow everyone away.

 

 

If that was a Hader game, we'd be talking about how that wasn't on him at all. And if Hader had only thrown a few innings all year, we'd type out Relax in all caps.