Cubs sign Craig Kimbrel (3 years / $43 million)

[Brew crew 92]

Follows/roots for the smallest market team in MLB then complains about it being the smallest market team in MLB. It is what it is, we know what we have here.

 

Market size > smallest

 

revenue > 15-20th smallest

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I can't really fathom how anyone expects the Brewers to have better infrastructure year over year than the Dodgers. If that's the standard you're setting you will be disappointed forever. And I'm afraid Craig Kimbrel wouldn't close that gap. What you can hope for in baseball is a team that fights and stays in it and is good enough and hot enough at the right moment to beat them four times. But you can't do that without getting there. By that reasonable measure I am pretty satisfied with how the team is operating.

[homer]

I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. Brewers could have done it had they wanted to do so. That said it is probably more than they wanted to spend and other moves would be limited. The biggest problem I see is this team is in a win now mode but isn't being run that way. It's being run kinda in between. In between never works. Who on this team is going to be a productive member in 2 years? Outside of Arcia and Yelich I can't see anyone. The future is murky at best so why not put it all out there now and make a run at it this year. Even if you somehow hold off the Cubs are you beating the Dodgers with what you have? Kimbrel helps you this year and next. The farm system seems a bit dry position player wise outside of Keston. When is the last time this organization made two playoffs in a row? 81-82? That is ridiculous.

 

Really good post.

 

You won’t get much of a response, because it’s hard to argue against your more than reasonable take.

 

If you could sign Kimbrel to a 1 year deal then fine I agree. But locking him into three years hamstrings what you can do to fill in those murky spots.

[MrTPlush]

Follows/roots for the smallest market team in MLB then complains about it being the smallest market team in MLB. It is what it is, we know what we have here.

 

Market size > smallest

 

revenue > 15-20th smallest

 

And our payroll is #14 to start the year....so what am I missing? Seems to me our payroll is aggressive for our revenue size and it will only grow more mid-season. Seems a far cry from being cheap.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2019-mlb-opening-day-payrolls-red-sox-cubs-yankees-open-season-above-competitive-balance-tax-threshold/

[tmwiese55]

I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. Brewers could have done it had they wanted to do so. That said it is probably more than they wanted to spend and other moves would be limited. The biggest problem I see is this team is in a win now mode but isn't being run that way. It's being run kinda in between. In between never works. Who on this team is going to be a productive member in 2 years? Outside of Arcia and Yelich I can't see anyone. The future is murky at best so why not put it all out there now and make a run at it this year. Even if you somehow hold off the Cubs are you beating the Dodgers with what you have? Kimbrel helps you this year and next. The farm system seems a bit dry position player wise outside of Keston. When is the last time this organization made two playoffs in a row? 81-82? That is ridiculous.

 

Really good post.

 

You won’t get much of a response, because it’s hard to argue against your more than reasonable take.

 

I think we're all forgetting that Kimbrel was terrible to finish last year. This is a way riskier signing than is being let on. If we lock in 15ish mil the next two years after this it limits position player moves similar to Moose/Grandal to fill gaps that will show up due to our limited position player farm right now. It is perfectly logical to value position players over a relief pitcher. Then throw in the risk of this year, all Ps who signed late last year kind of flopped. So you're not likely to get him even pitching until late June and it's very questionable how much he helps this year and you might risk a lot of games as he works back into shape. Or of course it's possible he does well, but it's not guaranteed by any means.

 

Big pic, I think most folks would probably agree that generally speaking the most inefficient spot to spend big money is on bullpen due to the flukiness and up/down nature of relief pitchers combined with their actual limited effect on winning games. And pretty much everyone would agree that closers are the most over inflated position in the game. Essentially 15 mils spent on a very small amount of innings and in an area proven over the last several years to be way overblown in regards to winning. Yet here we are with a contingent complaining about it as if it's a blasphemous decision.

 

Would I have taken him or preferred he not be on the Cubs, yea of course. But it's also totally logical and likely smart to spend this money elsewhere and that money spent elsewhere will help win more than this would.

 

For the complaining on being cheap, I think you can find similar posts last March/April regarding the late signing Ps and Darvish, and it turns out Stearns was correct and he dodged bullets there.

[tmwiese55]

Follows/roots for the smallest market team in MLB then complains about it being the smallest market team in MLB. It is what it is, we know what we have here.

 

Market size > smallest

 

revenue > 15-20th smallest

 

So you're upset the smallest market team in MLB is operating itself so well that it's generating enough revenue to spend in the middle of the pack instead of the bottom of the pack?

 

I know the revenue info. I was commenting that we're the smallest market, we all know this going in. So complaining that we don't have unlimited money is just obtuse. If you don't want to have this problem be a Cubs/Dodgers/Yanks/Sawx fan.

[xisxisxis]

I would imagine this move will tie the Cubs hands for additional moves this year and at the trade deadline. This could very well be the all-in move for the Cubs and the Brewers still have significant room to acquire additional pieces.

 

Given the Cubs history of FA pitching moves this could be good news for the Brewers.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. Brewers could have done it had they wanted to do so. That said it is probably more than they wanted to spend and other moves would be limited. The biggest problem I see is this team is in a win now mode but isn't being run that way. It's being run kinda in between. In between never works. Who on this team is going to be a productive member in 2 years? Outside of Arcia and Yelich I can't see anyone. The future is murky at best so why not put it all out there now and make a run at it this year. Even if you somehow hold off the Cubs are you beating the Dodgers with what you have? Kimbrel helps you this year and next. The farm system seems a bit dry position player wise outside of Keston. When is the last time this organization made two playoffs in a row? 81-82? That is ridiculous.

 

But wouldn't taking a 96-win team, and adding the best catcher and one of the best infield bats on the market be considered "win now" moves?

 

As for who on this team is going to be a productive member is two years, that is pretty tough to speculate, but I would imagine other than Arcia and Yelich, we'll see Woodruff, Davies, Burnes, Peralta, Nelson, Hader, Houser, and Knebel leading the pitching staff. As for bats, that is obviously a little more up in the air. Gamel is proving to be a potential building block. He's technically not on the team right now, but Hiura is an obvious building block. Shaw has two more years of team control after 2019. Cain is having a rough patch, but is under team control through 2022.

 

It's tough for me to see both the current and future of this team and not have optimism.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Sorry, I appreciate Doug Melvin bringing some wins back to this franchise, but I would really prefer the current pragmatic approach rather than the Fantasy Football game I felt like Melvin was playing whenever he smelled a short-term chance for success. I am really not all that interested in all-out years followed by six years of suckage because that's six years of terrible baseball I have to watch. I for one appreciate the attempt at building a team that's sustainably competitive. Sustainably competitive means what it means. There will be years where you didn't get Kimbrel and won 87 games and just missed out. I accept that.

[Brew crew 92]

Seriously. The "owner is taking us for a ride" schtick has to end. It's incorrect, dumb, and embarrassing. We have one of the best owners in sports. What he's trying to do is extremely difficult.

 

Even if there was some truth to the "lying owner" narrative, what would be the logical response as a fan base? Show up at Attanasio's house with torches and pitchforks?

 

No ... if you are that incensed with ownership and the team's leadership structure, your only recourse as a fan is to stop buying merchandise, and stop going to games. Basically boycott. That would probably include ceasing all posting on websites dedicated to hardcore fans of said franchise as well.

 

I guess I prefer to root for the guys we do have, and continue to hope that this already good team continues to improve.

 

Boycotting won’t work. Too much $ in from National tv and other sources, the effect would be negligible at best.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

That stinks. I guess you are just forced to watch and support Brewers baseball then. My condolences.

[tmwiese55]

We just won 96 games, made game 7 of the NLCS. Are now 1 game out and on pace to win over 90 games and make the playoffs again and we're talking about boycotting games due to mismanagement. Gotta love it.

[pacopete4]

Follows/roots for the smallest market team in MLB then complains about it being the smallest market team in MLB. It is what it is, we know what we have here.

 

Market size > smallest

 

revenue > 15-20th smallest

 

And our payroll is #14 to start the year....so what am I missing? Seems to me our payroll is aggressive for our revenue size and it will only grow more mid-season. Seems a far cry from being cheap.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2019-mlb-opening-day-payrolls-red-sox-cubs-yankees-open-season-above-competitive-balance-tax-threshold/

 

There will be no answer to this. It doesn't fit the agenda.

[Pugger]

I don’t see him being a dominant closer. No real logic as to why even, just my thoughts. He wasn’t great at the end of last year, now he’s jumping into a season without a true spring training. Boston didn’t seem to pursue bringing him back. I think this turns out to be a bad deal for the Cubs.

 

You have to wonder why Boston had no interest in resigning him and why he was a FA this long.

[Pugger]

I don’t see him being a dominant closer. No real logic as to why even, just my thoughts. He wasn’t great at the end of last year, now he’s jumping into a season without a true spring training. Boston didn’t seem to pursue bringing him back. I think this turns out to be a bad deal for the Cubs.

 

Boston couldn’t bring him back, 45 million contact would have cost them extra 23 million, because of the tax, the reports are saying his workouts in front of scouts and executives were “electric “

 

Good closers are very desirable so if he was "electric" why was he unsigned so long? I guess time will tell.

[Brew crew 92]

Let’s see how much money is spent at the deadline, to improve.

 

Because in order to sustain the success, I think we can all agree that’s going to be hard to do if we have to give up much if any real prospect capital.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

We just won 96 games, made game 7 of the NLCS. Are now 1 game out and on pace to win over 90 games and make the playoffs again and we're talking about boycotting games due to mismanagement. Gotta love it.

 

Sorry, that was me who brought that up. I fear the real point was missed, though.

[MrTPlush]

I don’t see him being a dominant closer. No real logic as to why even, just my thoughts. He wasn’t great at the end of last year, now he’s jumping into a season without a true spring training. Boston didn’t seem to pursue bringing him back. I think this turns out to be a bad deal for the Cubs.

 

You have to wonder why Boston had no interest in resigning him and why he was a FA this long.

 

Meh, the later is likely due to high demands and then once the season started it is probably best to wait and see what team gets desperate while also shedding the draft pick attachment.

 

The prior is a bit more interesting, but could be simply explained by not wanting to commit long term money to a closer. Mind you when they decided to not go after him he was asking for a ton of money. I am sure the terrible postseason also sits in their mind making them a bit hesitant to resign him...teams are very sensitive to good or bad postseason performances.

[tmwiese55]

We just won 96 games, made game 7 of the NLCS. Are now 1 game out and on pace to win over 90 games and make the playoffs again and we're talking about boycotting games due to mismanagement. Gotta love it.

 

Sorry, that was me who brought that up. I fear the real point was missed, though.

 

Well turns out boycotting isn't even enough!!! haha. Let's get a billboard going.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The Cubs got lucky with Zobrist's marriage falling apart. It allowed that $43 million figure to look a lot bigger than it was in terms of money already committed. I think, pretty clearly, no other team was willing to give him what he wanted.

[MrTPlush]

Let’s see how much money is spent at the deadline, to improve.

 

Because in order to sustain the success, I think we can all agree that’s going to be hard to do if we have to give up much if any real prospect capital.

 

Good idea, I agree.

 

Probably hard regardless of that. The Brewers can dream of being a sustainable contender for years, but my personal opinion is to chase windows and endure the bad rebuilds if need be. But no reason that window can't be another 3-5 years depending on some things going right...even if they purge some good prospect capital. I think our prospects at this point look very uninspiring and the odds they can refuel this team years from now if not the greatest of odds.

[Brew crew 92]

I don’t see him being a dominant closer. No real logic as to why even, just my thoughts. He wasn’t great at the end of last year, now he’s jumping into a season without a true spring training. Boston didn’t seem to pursue bringing him back. I think this turns out to be a bad deal for the Cubs.

 

You have to wonder why Boston had no interest in resigning him and why he was a FA this long.

 

Boston’s cost if the signed Kimbrel > 65 mil incl. tax.

[KeithStone53151]

First, not signing Kimbrel does not make Mark A cheap or a bad owner or all the other nonsense getting tossed around. Payroll is already extended to a record high, and signing Kimbrel probably allows us nearly zero flexbility to make other moves to address others areas of need. Plus, for all we know he wouldn't have signed that same deal with the Brewers. Maybe he liked Chicago better. The whole Brewers signing Kimbrel argument is just dreadful.

 

As for the Cubs, I feel many are underestimating how important those 35-40 innings plus potential playoff innings will be for the Cubs. The Cubs currently have 12 blown saves in 25 chances, ranking 27th in baseball in save percentage. Last year in his supposed "down year", he recorded 42 saves and 5 blown saves. I know that's an extremely simply way of looking at it, but if Kimbrel is able to lock down saves even at his 2018 rate...the Cubs will record so many more wins the rest of the season than if Cishek/Kintzler/Strop are acting closer. It also allows them to move everyone else in the pen down a rung into slightly less important roles and strengthens their entire bullpen. You can look at WAR all you want and say "35-40 innings is only worth like 1 WAR at best"...but if Kimbrel is 2018 version or better, it will result in a lot more extra wins than 1.

 

Here's hoping he regresses further from his 2nd half 2018, but I'm honestly expecting him to be back in premium form and for this move to really hurt the Brewers chances at the division.

[Pugger]

I don’t see him being a dominant closer. No real logic as to why even, just my thoughts. He wasn’t great at the end of last year, now he’s jumping into a season without a true spring training. Boston didn’t seem to pursue bringing him back. I think this turns out to be a bad deal for the Cubs.

 

You have to wonder why Boston had no interest in resigning him and why he was a FA this long.

 

Boston’s cost if the signed Kimbrel > 65 mil incl. tax.

 

OIC

 

But that doesn't explain why other teams didn't show any interest until the Cubs.

[tmwiese55]

I don’t see him being a dominant closer. No real logic as to why even, just my thoughts. He wasn’t great at the end of last year, now he’s jumping into a season without a true spring training. Boston didn’t seem to pursue bringing him back. I think this turns out to be a bad deal for the Cubs.

 

You have to wonder why Boston had no interest in resigning him and why he was a FA this long.

 

Meh, the later is likely due to high demands and then once the season started it is probably best to wait and see what team gets desperate while also shedding the draft pick attachment.

 

The prior is a bit more interesting, but could be simply explained by not wanting to commit long term money to a closer. Mind you when they decided to not go after him he was asking for a ton of money. I am sure the terrible postseason also sits in their mind making them a bit hesitant to resign him...teams are very sensitive to good or bad postseason performances.

 

I had him in fantasy so I watched closely. It wasn't even just the postseason. He was shaky the whole second half. It was very Krod like with how there was always guys on base and drama, lots of walks. Who knows maybe he was just tired and it's not a big deal and he'll be fine. But Boston must've been a bit worried to commit long term. I think it's a good signing for the Cubs in their situation and money but it's riskier than people think as he just might not be what he was anymore.