Projected HRs

[JET15]

What's the formula for projecting how many home runs will get hit by Hardy knowing that he's hit 8 in 29 GP (of the total 30 GP by MIL)? Does AB come into play?

[rluzinski]

If you just want to extrapolate, GP is as good as anything. Extrapolating unexpected stats is a big no-no, however. Hardy is almost certainly not going to hit 42 HRs (his current pace).

 

What you should probably do is regress his current rate down towards something more reasonable, like 20 HRs for the season. Not sure how far to regress, though.

[JET15]

Thanks, Russ. Yeah, with GP I've got him at 42 HR and 136 RBI. It looks too good to be true without doing some sort of scaling back.

 

I thought someone here might have a rule or there was a standard formula.

 

In the end, all I'm trying to do is take the traditional stats (BA/HR/RBI) and project them out for the year. Hardy's .339/42/136 looks awesome at this point and maybe that's all I need to know. It means a little more than .339/8/26 because you always have to do the math in your head to say, gee, 8/26 as of May 6 is incredible.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm no stat-head, but I really can't see how 30 HR is not a realistic guess for JJ at this point. Is he over-achieving at this point? Perhaps, maybe even probably. But he's proved he can really mash, and his hot start will more than cover for a slump or two.

 

 

I know he won't keep up on the current pace, but with essentially all of May remaining, and needing 22 more dongs to reach 30 -- that's around 5 or 6 more HRs per month. JJ will almost certainly not hit 5 or 6 in each month, but also will probably exceed 5 or 6 in at least one more month.

 

The reason I post this is that projecting the 15-25 I guessed at the start of the year seems silly now. It's not like he's just sqeaking HRs around the foul poles - his power is better than I'd hoped.

 

I've been on the Hardy train all along, but even I figured his 2d-half of 2005 was a bit of a power surge above average, which now looks to be an erroneous assumption

[rluzinski]

What are you using these numbers for? If you want to predict the final numbers you need to regress them.

[JET15]

TooLiveBrew: I hope you're right and JJ keeps it up.

 

Russ: Most people don't want to talk OPS, OBP, WHIP, etc. They like those traditional numbers for batting, Avg/HR/RBI. But only Avg is relevant to the point in time, so I was trying to make HR and RBI more relevant by projecting out the season totals. Most people understand "he's on a pace to hit 41 HR and 132 RBI".

[rluzinski]

That was my point; if you are just doing it for fun, "on pace" is the way to go. I didn't know if you wanted a more accurate prediction for fantasy baseball or something.

[1992casey]

I suppose you could do a "He's on a pace for X number of homers but Y may be a better prediction because..." type of thing.

[JET15]

Yeah, then then there's pitching. Cappy and Soup are on pace for 24 wins with 1.13 and 1.25 WHIPs respectively. Cordero is on pace for 71 saves, but an 0.66 WHIP says it all.

[Tbadder]

JJ kinda scares me. I mean, how much over and above his minor league projections is he playing currently? How many players significantly improve on their projects once they reach the majors? And then there's always the question. How many times does a player come back from a major injury and just spank his previous production? I think I'm going to dodge bullets on this one, and I hope like heck I'm wrong, but I think 15 to 25 home runs is gonna be right on the mark, if and only if he doesn't get himself on the DL again. Gulp. Jinx.

[BillScottCanRake]

JJ kinda scares me. I mean, how much over and above his minor league projections is he playing currently? How many players significantly improve on their projects once they reach the majors?

 

With guys like Weeks, Fielder, and Hart playing around him, I think people sometimes didn't realize that JJ was going to be able to hit for a fair amount of power. Remember, JJ was almost always one of the youngest guys in his league, so it's not surprising that his power numbers were lower in the minors than they are now.

 

Keeping that in mind, JJ hit 12 HRs as a 20/21 year old in AA Huntsville. The Southern League is very much a pitchers league, and Hardy hit only one less homerun than that years league MVP (Hart had 13).

 

The next year Hardy hit 4 in 100 ABs as a 21 year old in AAA Indy. While one hates to use the dreaded "projection" to try to make any sort of prediction, that would have been in the 16-20 HR range for a full season.

 

His five home runs in 35 games in Milwaukee last year projects to about 18-20 home runs.

 

So, while JJ is definitely on a hot streak and I don't expect him to hit 40 HRs this year, I wouldn't be stunned if he hit 25-30 at some point in his career.

[igor67]

It bears repeating that JJ is also very different from any hitter we've seen in quite some time. He has very low k and walk rates. So his K to BB ratio is still very good but he puts the ball in play a lot more than we got used to over the years and has always had a lot of line drive power. That does translate into more opportunities to hit HRs (also more opportunities to make outs I'm not trying to make a value judgement on his approach just point out it is very different)

[Time for a Miller]

Quote:

---

I think 15 to 25 home runs is gonna be right on the mark

---

 

This is an exremely large range (11) and probably needs to be updated since J.J. hit a HR in each of the two games since your post http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif . When estimating HRs you should try to limit the range to about 5 or 6 in my opinion. Just me knitpicking though.

 

I think with the hot start with what I thought J.J. would hit (20-25) that he is going to finish at about 28-33 HRs.