2019-06-05: Marlins (Alcántara) at Brewers (Nelson) 6:40 PM CDT [Brewers lose, 8-3 -- The return of Jimmy Nelson spoiled by the Marlins]

[MrTPlush]

I was referring to the likes of Haudricourt who were acting like our $125mil payroll was insane and comparing it to our nearly decade old prior record.

 

And yes I believe they could run a payroll of $140mil short term in competitive years. However I don’t and never preached it like a fact nor did I freak out every time they didn’t spend money complaining they were being cheap.

 

Also Kimbrel was $15mil a year and no offense I bet Cubs>Brewers in his mind. So I bet we would have had to pony up more like $18mil to get him. Couple that with other eventual moves this season I think it is reasonable to wonder if they could afford that big of a move mid season.

[Brew crew 92]

Way to go Stearns..letting Kimbrel go to your biggest rival. You absolutely CANNOT let that happen. If the Cubs win the division it's on DS. I thought they were "going for it" this year?? Guess not...

 

It’s not Stearns, it’s attanasio, not wanting the payroll to reach a certain point. The Brewers want us to think we’re still small market, revenue wise, even though we’re closer to the average mid-market than small market. They have haudricourt & most of brewerfan thinking they can only do a payroll of 125-135 million, when in reality with there playoffs last year they could of done much more this year, and more next year and even more the following year. Of course that’s just my opinion, but it’s based on tons of thought and analysis.

 

Now back to the game.

 

You seem to think you are a Harvard grad and the worlds expert on baseball financials.

 

When in reality this entire forums knowledge put together would be about a penny compared to a million dollars. Anyone here can pretend to think they now a sliver about who can afford what and how this effects that...but really we know nothing.

 

If you ever write a paper on all those thoughts and analysis you have done I’d like to see it. Because whatever it is never seems to make it into your posts. And I’m serious...cause it would be interesting if all that analysis on why we can afford tens of million more a year actually exists. Cause no one else on this planet seems to think that way. Cause I don’t understand how an average joe could know so much about financials no one outside an organization knows.

 

I’ve done that many many times, specific revenue’s from the new Fox deal to next year’s new turner/ESPN deal, the crew’s new local tv deal, it goes on and on. If you want to see what I’ve written down go to the how much money do the brewers have to spend thread. Or the brewers all in thread. It’s all there.

[The stache]

Being outscored 24-1 through two home games, by the lowest scoring team in baseball. Joy.

 

I don't drink, but this team has me considering if I should start.

 

A third of the way into the season, and I still have no clue who this team really is. We hit a lot of home runs, but we struggle to bring home guys in RISP when a single would do the trick. Our pitching staff can look very good for stretches, and then completely face plant against a team like the Marlins.

 

Being a Brewers fan inherently requires patience. But this year's squad is more frustrating than any in recent memory. The Marlins were hot at the plate coming into our series, so I can at least rationalize their hitting, and our inconsistency, a little bit. What I cannot rationalize, however, is our utter incompetence at the plate these two games. There are three legit All Stars in our lineup in Yelich, Grandal and Moustakas. Arcia is starting to show some of the promise he did when he was a top five prospect in baseball. Certainly his power is starting to become more evident. We had a phenom at second, and sent him back to AAA to bring up a guy that was All Star caliber as recently as last season. And all that offensive firepower got utterly shut down by. By the Marlins.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Being outscored 24-1 through two home games, by the lowest scoring team in baseball. Joy.

 

I don't drink, but this team has me considering if I should start.

 

A third of the way into the season, and I still have no clue who this team really is. We hit a lot of home runs, but we struggle to bring home guys in RISP when a single would do the trick. Our pitching staff can look very good for stretches, and then completely face plant against a team like the Marlins.

 

Being a Brewers fan inherently requires patience. But this year's squad is more frustrating than any in recent memory. The Marlins were hot at the plate coming into our series, so I can at least rationalize their hitting, and our inconsistency, a little bit. What I cannot rationalize, however, is our utter incompetence at the plate these two games. There are three legit All Stars in our lineup in Yelich, Grandal and Moustakas. Arcia is starting to show some of the promise he did when he was a top five prospect in baseball. Certainly his power is starting to become more evident. We had a phenom at second, and sent him back to AAA to bring up a guy that was All Star caliber as recently as last season. And all that offensive firepower got utterly shut down by. By the Marlins.

 

Baseball is a wonderfully maddening game.

[MrTPlush]

I’ve done that many many times, specific revenue’s from the new Fox deal to next year’s new turner/ESPN deal, the crew’s new local tv deal, it goes on and on. If you want to see what I’ve written down go to the how much money do the brewers have to spend thread. Or the brewers all in thread. It’s all there.

 

So what exactly are you guessing to be their payroll? Long term and short term? You seem to act like they are severely undercutting what they could be spending?

 

I guess I find it questionable and debatable how much a postseason run/competitive team adds to a bottom line that a team would be willing to bank on happening in a given season.

 

I find $140mil to be a conservative realistic number...but if you were bullish on competing adding crazy money $150mil isn’t out of the question. Also the Crew doesn’t have a new TV deal yet last I checked.

[Brew crew 92]

I was referring to the likes of Haudricourt who were acting like our $125mil payroll was insane and comparing it to our nearly decade old prior record.

 

And yes I believe they could run a payroll of $140mil short term in competitive years. However I don’t and never preached it like a fact nor did I freak out every time they didn’t spend money complaining they were being cheap.

 

Also Kimbrel was $15mil a year and no offense I bet Cubs>Brewers in his mind. So I bet we would have had to pony up more like $18mil to get him. Couple that with other eventual moves this season I think it is reasonable to wonder if they could afford that big of a move mid season.

 

Well like Jim the moderator, who I respect as much as any one person on this site said better than I ever could, Attanassio could easily find the money for Kimbrel if he WANTED to. And then took a bunch of heat from stupid posters who did zero reading or even a modicum of research arguing things they knew nothing about, trying to crush him because he’s talking against the”party line”around here.

[yourout]

Back up to 5 runs a game allowed.

11th in the NL.

 

If this doesn't improve the playoffs are out of reach.

[The stache]

No offense intended, MrTPlush, but if you're going to call a poster out for their "clairvoyant" statements about salary cap management, and what ownership is willing to spend, you've got to hold yourself to the same standard. In back-to-back posts, you've opined that you know what everybody in the world thinks, and then what Craig Kimbrel thinks. Your comment that it would cost Milwaukee $3 million more, per season, to acquire Kimbrel is pure hyperbole.

[Bulldogboy]

I wanted Kimbrel as much as the next guy but realistically this team could just as easily be selling off Moose and Grandal at the deadline. The run differential isn't the end all but the facts are this is an average team with way below average pitching and two key components in Cain and Braun looking older by the day.

[The stache]

Baseball is a wonderfully maddening game.

 

That it is, my friend. More than any other professional sport in North America, Major League Baseball is a marathon. And the 2019 Brewers are Forrest Gump on the brink of breaking free from their magic legs.

 

I just get the feeling that we're so darned close, and I walk around after losses like this one muttering, "small sample size" to myself. I'm just waiting for it to get better, for this team to turn the corner. I believe it is going to happen.

[Brew crew 92]

I’ve done that many many times, specific revenue’s from the new Fox deal to next year’s new turner/ESPN deal, the crew’s new local tv deal, it goes on and on. If you want to see what I’ve written down go to the how much money do the brewers have to spend thread. Or the brewers all in thread. It’s all there.

 

So what exactly are you guessing to be their payroll? Long term and short term? You seem to act like they are severely undercutting what they could be spending?

 

I guess I find it questionable and debatable how much a postseason run/competitive team adds to a bottom line that a team would be willing to bank on happening in a given season.

 

I find $140mil to be a conservative realistic number...but if you were bullish on competing adding crazy money $150mil isn’t out of the question. Also the Crew doesn’t have a new TV deal yet last I checked.

 

Correct, that’ll be negotiated this off season, but I think we can assume it’ll bump up, maybe considerably. And yes, 150 a good guesstimate for breakeven. And that doesn’t include their playoff $ which my guess 10-15 million.

 

My thinking is the following which I’ve already stated:

 

In the competitive years spend close to the breakeven. Non competitive/rebuilding years reduce payroll to as low as possible and bank a ridiculous profit. What the heck is wrong with that?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Adrian Houser has clearly pitched himself off the San Antonio shuttle. If Freddy scuffles tomorrow, Houser may be the next guy to see significant starts. He certainly has a solid starter's repertoire.

[The stache]

I wanted Kimbrel as much as the next guy but realistically this team could just as easily be selling off Moose and Grandal at the deadline. The run differential isn't the end all but the facts are this is an average team with way below average pitching and two key components in Cain and Braun looking older by the day.

 

Since May 1st, Braun's hitting .351 (33 for 93) with 6 doubles, 4 home runs, 15 RBI, while slashing .408 OBP/.543 SLG/.951 OPS. If that's looking older every day, I'll take it.

[Brew crew 92]

I wanted Kimbrel as much as the next guy but realistically this team could just as easily be selling off Moose and Grandal at the deadline. The run differential isn't the end all but the facts are this is an average team with way below average pitching and two key components in Cain and Braun looking older by the day.

 

This team needed a shot in the arm. Sending Hiura down not exactly that shot. Now we have to watch Aguilar flailing away continually til even mr patient Stearns can’t stand it anymore, and Thames K at 36% before we get a better bat or two here. kimbrel was the answere to the pen not just this year but the next two as well.

[brewmann04]

he should take Anderson spot.

[Bulldogboy]

Being outscored 24-1 through two home games, by the lowest scoring team in baseball. Joy.

 

I don't drink, but this team has me considering if I should start.

 

A third of the way into the season, and I still have no clue who this team really is. We hit a lot of home runs, but we struggle to bring home guys in RISP when a single would do the trick. Our pitching staff can look very good for stretches, and then completely face plant against a team like the Marlins.

 

Being a Brewers fan inherently requires patience. But this year's squad is more frustrating than any in recent memory. The Marlins were hot at the plate coming into our series, so I can at least rationalize their hitting, and our inconsistency, a little bit. What I cannot rationalize, however, is our utter incompetence at the plate these two games. There are three legit All Stars in our lineup in Yelich, Grandal and Moustakas. Arcia is starting to show some of the promise he did when he was a top five prospect in baseball. Certainly his power is starting to become more evident. We had a phenom at second, and sent him back to AAA to bring up a guy that was All Star caliber as recently as last season. And all that offensive firepower got utterly shut down by. By the Marlins.

This is true. The nature of this offense though is going to produce stretches like this. No small ball. No speed. Poor baserunning. Terrible at moving runners. Worst in baseball at driving them in from third with less than two. Basically hit it out or die. They are dying right now.

[pacopete4]

We hit a lot of home runs, but we struggle to bring home guys in RISP when a single would do the trick.

 

Two outs RISP: .256/.361/.500/.861

RISP: .257/.357/.476/.833

[The stache]

I wanted Kimbrel as much as the next guy but realistically this team could just as easily be selling off Moose and Grandal at the deadline. The run differential isn't the end all but the facts are this is an average team with way below average pitching and two key components in Cain and Braun looking older by the day.

 

This team needed a shot in the arm. Sending Hiura down not exactly that shot. Now we have to watch Aguilar flailing away continually til even mr patient Stearns can’t stand it anymore, and Thames K at 36% before we get a better bat or two here. kimbrel was the answere to the pen not just this year but the next two as well.

 

Yes, Thames' K rate is horrendous, but it's really not too far off from his career rate, and he's still being productive. Fangraphs has his ISO at .208, which is excellent. And his wRC+ of 121 is close to his 2017 level of 125 when he hit 30 + home runs. He's still getting on base (.369 OBP), and his BAbip (.364) is well above his career level of .310.

 

He looks like Ted Kluszewski compared to Aguilar; he's just fallen off a cliff. His ISO is .115, and his wRC+, which was 134 last year, is 62. I keep thinking he'll rebound slightly, as he's been unlucky as hell with a .227 BAbip (.301 career), but he just continues to flounder.

[The stache]

We hit a lot of home runs, but we struggle to bring home guys in RISP when a single would do the trick.

 

Two outs RISP: .256/.361/.500/.861

RISP: .257/.357/.476/.833

 

Hmm, thank you for posting that, Brew4U. The 2 out RISP, especially surprises me, because there was a recent stretch where we were like 2 for 21 with men in scoring position and 2 outs. That just goes to show why sample size is so important to consider. One cold stretch is not necessarily indicative of a larger trend. It just feels like it in that moment.

[pacopete4]

We hit a lot of home runs, but we struggle to bring home guys in RISP when a single would do the trick.

 

Two outs RISP: .256/.361/.500/.861

RISP: .257/.357/.476/.833

 

Hmm, thank you for posting that, Brew4U. The 2 out RISP, especially surprises me, because there was a recent stretch where we were like 2 for 21 with men in scoring position and 2 outs. That just goes to show why sample size is so important to consider. One cold stretch is not necessarily indicative of a larger trend. It just feels like it in that moment.

 

Yeah, when teams are in a slump, things always feel worse than they are. This team is out of whack in all phases right now. Hopefully it doesn’t continue for a long period of time.

[The stache]

You know, I think I was getting that stat confused with runners on third and two outs. Looking at the Brewers' splits for the season (coming into tonight's game), we're hitting .207 in that situation, slashing .318/.423/.741. That's not awful. But two outs and only a guy on third, we're .143 AVG, .294/.357/.651. 4 for 28, 34 PA's in total. I think the comment was on that last split, and it stuck in my mind as overall RISP.

[pacopete4]

Makes sense. They definitely need to do a better job in those spots.

[The stache]

Yeah, when teams are in a slump, things always feel worse than they are. This team is out of whack in all phases right now. Hopefully it doesn’t continue for a long period of time.

 

That, and my mind seems to be aging at an exponential rate.

[DHonks]

we had a pretty bad stretch with the bases loaded last road trip or so.

[Pugger]

Down in FL we get all of the Marlins games and they haven't played like this at all until recently. We haven't played well but I can't see the fish playing like this for much longer. I hope we can salvage today's game but with Freddy on the mound I'm not all that confident.