2019 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

[Eye Black]

Now the Brewers selection at #65, and here are the best available per Toby’s list. Obviously some of the top HS guys are falling due to signability issues.

 

[pre]16 Matt Allan RHP H Seminole HS (FL)

29 Jack Leiter RHP H Delbarton HS (NJ)

32 Hunter Barco LHP H Bolles HS (FL)

34 Maurice Hampton OF H Memphis University HS (TN)

35 Brooks Lee SS/2B H San Luis Obispo HS (CA)

37 Tyler Callihan 3B H Providence HS (FL)

43 Matthew Lugo SS H Carlos Beltran Academy (PR)

49 Isaiah Campbell RHP C Arkansas

51 Bryce Osmond RHP/SS H Jenks HS (OK)

55 Jimmy Lewis RHP H Lake Travis HS (TX)

58 Josh Smith SS C LSU

61 Noah Song RHP C Navy

63 Tommy Henry LHP C Michigan

65 Ryan Pepiot RHP C Butler

66 Matt Cronin LHP C Arkansas

68 Will Holland SS C Auburn

70 Dominic Fletcher OF C Arkansas

71 Andrew Dalquist RHP H Redondo Union HS (CA)

72 Spencer Jones LHP/1B H La Costa Canyon HS (CA)

73 Drew Mendoza 3B C Florida State

74 Ryan Zeferjahn RHP C Kansas

75 Jack Kochanowicz RHP H Harriton HS (PA)

76 Jerrion Ealy OF H Jackson Prep HS (MS)

77 Graeme Stinson LHP C Duke

78 Ethan Hearn C H Mobile Christian HS (AL)

82 Riley Cornelio RHP H Pine Creek HS (CO)

85 Tyler Baum RHP C North Carolina[/pre]

[SRB]

Well I know who I want!

 

3B Drew Mendoza

 

"The raw power is legitimate, though, and the team that thinks it can get him to tap into it more consistently will take him in the early rounds, with some seeing a three true outcomes hitter like Russell Branyan in him."

[JDBrewCrew]

Give me Campbell

[JDBrewCrew]

Brewers take.....

 

Antoine Kelly | Rank: 90

School: Wabash Valley (Ill.) CC Year: Freshman

Position: LHP Age: 19 DOB: 12/05/1999

Bats: L Throws: L Height: 6'6" Weight: 205 lb.

Previously drafted: 2018, 13th (381) - SD

 

WATCH

Scouting grades: Fastball: 70 | Slider: 45 | Changeup: 40 | Control: 45 | Overall: 45

 

Kelly was a late popup before the 2018 Draft as an Illinois high schooler, impressing scouts enough with his size and projectability that the Padres made a run at signing him to an over-slot bonus in the 13th round. He chose instead to attend Wabash Valley (Ill.) CC, where he led national juco pitchers with 19.1 strikeouts per nine innings. He may have the biggest gap between his ceiling and floor of any player in the Draft.

 

His fastball topped out in the low 90s as a high school senior, but after adding 20 pounds and cleaning up his delivery, Kelly is reaching 98 mph and showing the ability to work at 94-97 mph for innings at a time. Scouts look at his 6-foot-6 frame and how easy and loose his arm looks while pumping mid-90s heat, and many of them come up with same physical comparison: a young David Price. He still has room to add more strength and to further improve his mechanics, so it's easy to project him topping 100 mph in the future.

 

Kelly lacks a usable second pitch because he hasn't shown much aptitude for spinning the ball -- his mid-80s slider is below average -- and his changeup is non-existent. His control also needs a major upgrade and his mound presence concerns scouts as well. His development will require a ton of patience and he ultimately may be more of a reliever than a starter, but he has a rare arm.

[SRB]

Ok, here's your upside pick, folks

 

Kelly was a late popup before the 2018 Draft as an Illinois high schooler, impressing scouts enough with his size and projectability that the Padres made a run at signing him to an over-slot bonus in the 13th round. He chose instead to attend Wabash Valley (Ill.) CC, where he has averaged more than two strikeouts per inning for a club ranked No. 1 in the juco ranks for most of the season. He may have the biggest gap between his ceiling and floor of any player in the Draft. His fastball topped out in the low 90s as a high school senior, but after adding 20 pounds and cleaning up his delivery, Kelly is reaching 98 mph and showing the ability to work at 94-97 mph for innings at a time. Scouts look at his 6-foot-6 frame and how easy and loose his arm looks while pumping mid-90s heat, and many of them come up with same physical comparison: a young David Price. He still has room to add more strength and to further improve his mechanics, so it's easy to project him topping 100 mph in the future. Kelly lacks a usable second pitch because he hasn't shown much aptitude for spinning the ball -- his mid-80s slider is below average -- and his changeup is non-existent. His control also needs a major upgrade and his mound presence concerns scouts as well. His development will require a ton of patience and he ultimately may be more of a reliever than a starter, but he has a rare arm.

[JDBrewCrew]

Carlos Collazo

Verified account

@CarlosACollazo

9s9 seconds ago

Antoine Kelly has a big fastball with an easy arm action from the left side. Could have an above-average slider in the future.

 

JJ Cooper

Verified account

@jjcoop36

10s10 seconds ago

Brewers take our second JUCO off the board. Antoine Kelly's velo spiked up this year and he was part of one of the best JUCO programs in the country this year.

 

Christopher Crawford

Verified account

@Crawford_MILB

4s4 seconds ago

Had one scout tell me that Antoine Kelly has the best left arm in this draft in terms of just pure stuff. Needs a lot -- a lot -- of work if he's going to start and no consistency, but huge, huge potential.

 

Brian Sakowski

@B_Sakowski_PG

28s28 seconds ago

Brewers go #JuCoRoute with Antoine Kelly from Wabash Valley. Tremendous size, projection, and arm speed; not even close to done growing and into high-90's, elite FB projection, has improved by leaps and bounds this season, absolutely gigantic gap between ceiling and floor.

 

Patrick Ebert

@PGPatrickEbert

1m1 minute ago

#Brewers go polish with LHP Ethan Small, pure upside with LHP Antoine Kelly in the #MLBDraft

[MadThinker88]

2 lefty pitchers to start this years draft...

Interesting

[Mudville9]

Talk about two different pitchers....sheesh. This seems like more of an old regime pick. Big guy who throws heat.

[Eye Black]

Red Sox got Matthew Lugo at #69. I’m into that pick.

[clancyphile]

Kelly reads like a left-handed Derrick Turnbow...

[Eye Black]

ASU’s Alec Marsh (from Milwaukee) goes to the Royals who have put together a nice collection of college arms going back to last year’s draft.

[clancyphile]

Think Callahan is signable if he slips to the 4th?

[CheeseheadInQC]

Talk about two different pitchers....sheesh. This seems like more of an old regime pick. Big guy who throws heat.

This regime isn't exactly averse to upside pitching projects in the early rounds either. Caden Lemons and Nash Walters both fall into that mold.

[harrydalton]

Finally they pick a lefty whose profile at least reminds me of Tyrone Hill, whose career ended far too early due to injury.

[JosephC]

Dodgers land both Kody Hoese and Michael Busch? This could turn out to be a pretty good night for them.

[Eye Black]

From BA where Kelly was ranked the #242 prospect in this year’s draft...

 

Antoine Kelly

Wabash Valley (Ill.) JCLHP

Notes:

Ht: 6-6 | Wt: 205 | B-T: L-L

Commit/Drafted: Padres '18 (13)

Scouting Report: Intrigued by his easy velocity, the Padres made a serious effort to sign Kelly as a 13th-round pick out of high school. He opted instead to head to Wabash Valley (Ill.) JC, which appears to be a wise move, as he’s more highly regarded a year later. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Kelly touched 100 mph at some point. Already, he sits at 93-95 and touches 97 from the left side with extremely easy arm action. He also optimistically has the makings of a future above-average slider. Athletic teenage lefties with this kind of stuff often hear their name called relatively quickly in the draft, especially when they strike out 19.1 batters per nine innings. Kelly does throw across his body and struggles at times to find the strike zone, but the fastball-slider combo is going to be hard for teams to ignore.

[Never Outhustled]

Remember pre Steans and Johnson when the Brewers would ignore strikeout pitchers in the draft? Glad those days are long gone.

[Eye Black]

I don’t really love the Kelly pick since the odds of him panning out seems very, very slim. If he does click he is probably a top end reliever, but it appears like there is a long development path for that to be a possibility. Also, what do I know.

[BallFour]

Just watched Small's start from Saturday against Central Michigan in the NCAA Tournament.

 

6 IP 5 H 2 R 2 ER 10 K 3 BB

 

He didn't have the best command throughout the game. Fastball sat in the 88-92, when elevated a couple times got up to 94. He didn't get as much swing in miss on the fastball as I would expect from a guy that gets almost 16K/9ip in the SEC. What I will say is that fastball was never a consistent MPH. One pitch could be 92 and the next 88 or vice versa. I don't know if this is his strategy or not (amateur here). I didn't see a 55 Changeup like MLB.com had. He rarely threw it and the home run he gave up was off a changeup, I am pretty sure, altough it wasn't a bad pitch necessarily, left it low in the strike zone but was on the outside corner maybe even off the plate a little. The cleanup hitter took it the other way, I really would just tip my cap to that hitter. His breaking ball looked more slurvy to me in the early going and he would almost use it exclusively to freeze the hitter looking when he got two strikes on them. As the game went on he got more top to bottom rotation on his breaking ball and it looked more like a traditional curveball. I don't know if these are two separate pitches or not.

 

Overall besides giving up the home run, there really was not any other hard contact given up. Just two cents from an amateur but I always hate reading scouting reports and taking them as gospel because who knows when the report was written and when they last saw him pitch.

[And That]

Love the Kelly pick. Without a huge bonus pool, this is the kind of upside risk the Brewers needed to take at least once.

[bigred]

Prep righty Matt Allen is still available. He has frontline stuff and looks to have slipped a bit. I wonder if there is some signability concerns. If not the case, he would be a great pick for the Brewers.

 

 

 

Matthew Allan is probably slipping, because he supposedly told teams it would likely take $4M to get him to sign, and forgo his college commitment. Same with Jack Leiter. Leiter said he's going to college, unless drafted early by the NYY.

[And That]

Ethan Small’s major at Mississippi State is kinesiology. That’s outstanding.

[ZBTMP]

 

No it’s not. We have basically nothing to spend so taking a high school player that we might really like just might not be an option because we could be totally screwed if he doesn’t sign or changes his mind and demands much more than he previously indicated.

I doubt the reason you gave factors into their decision making. Beyond the fact that the pick is protected so they aren’t screwed, very few players are going to get cold feet when their bonus demand is met and the millions are on the table. Now trying to figure out if they will drop their demands is another story, but an overslot signing can be made pretty easy by mixing in seniors in rounds 6-10.

Certainly bonus demand is a factor if all other things are equal, but there isn’t enough evidence that is the deciding factor here. There is a reasonable chance that Small is the top player on their board.

[wallus]

Any idea how much could possibly be saved with where these guys were projected versus where they were selected?

[Brew crew 92]

Small is a great pick for 3 reasons:

 

1.) Safety > high floor pick, at worst # 4/5 or usable pen arm.

 

2.) Upside > I think it’s reasonable to think he will re-gain more Velo as more time passes from his tj.

 

3.) underslot > saving money here to get more talent 4-10.