2019 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

[SRB]

FB-86-92.

 

I think that's pretty much the extent of where the idea comes from that he's boring.

 

But if he adds a few MPH on his fastball and sits closer to 92-96 with the way he hides it, his delivery, questionable secondary pitches. Sounds vaguely similar to a current Brewers who's been pretty important to our current success without starting for them.

 

It sounds like his fastball is very effective though (Jim Callis referenced his fastball "shape").

 

A couple random examples off the top of my head (there may be other or better examples), among the most valuable fastballs in MLB in 2019:

 

5. Hyun-Jin Ryu, +10.1, average velocity: 90.9 mph

 

12. Matthew Boyd, +7.4, average velocity: 92.1 mph

[StearnsFTW]

And what if he regains his fastball???

 

Then he's Josh Hader. Hopefully.

[OnTheBlack]

Many are advocating signing Dallas Keuchel, who averaged 90.2mph on his 4-seam fastball last year (89.5 and 89.3 the two years prior), as a free agent, but think that a college pitcher whose fastball range is 86-92 and was 2nd in all of college baseball in strikeouts and hits/9 is a boring/low-ceiling pick.

 

I don't think anyone will be upset if he turns into the next Dallas Keuchel.

 

No, but there's a looong way to go for that to happen, and those who advocated signing Keuchel(I wasn't among them) were doing so because he had a proven track record and in spite of his diminishing FB velocity.

Very few guys who are 4 year college guys add velocity to their FB. Hopefully we got one as he's just one year removed from TJ.

 

I see what you're saying, I just don't think it's a fair comp. Compare the 4th year Jr with the 18 year old Prep kid with 4 pitches, a 65 fastball that touches 97 and scouts think will add a MPH or 3 yet and could be a future ace, and it's easy to see why he was the "exciting" pick.

[Jenkins5]

Boring pick comes from him not being a young exciting arm. High risk, high reward types. Henderson & Malone are two I wanted. However, I’m excited for Small. Like Hader experienced when his jumped up, if he can get some of that velocity back he had pre tommy john.... the deceptive crossfire delivery is just deadly. When ball is that hard to see at 89 mph.... 93-95 mph will cripple hitters. He would breeze his way to AA or AAA. Plus change only plays better with the bump

[NYChez]

It seems like in 2019, pitchers are performing better than throwers (see Davies vs. Burnes). That might be part of Stearns’ thinking.

[SRB]

Many are advocating signing Dallas Keuchel, who averaged 90.2mph on his 4-seam fastball last year (89.5 and 89.3 the two years prior), as a free agent, but think that a college pitcher whose fastball range is 86-92 and was 2nd in all of college baseball in strikeouts and hits/9 is a boring/low-ceiling pick.

 

I don't think anyone will be upset if he turns into the next Dallas Keuchel.

 

No, but there's a looong way to go for that to happen, and those who advocated signing Keuchel(I wasn't among them) were doing so because he had a proven track record and in spite of his diminishing FB velocity.

Very few guys who are 4 year college guys add velocity to their FB. Hopefully we got one as he's just one year removed from TJ.

 

I see what you're saying, I just don't think it's a fair comp. Compare the 4th year Jr with the 18 year old Prep kid with 4 pitches, a 65 fastball that touches 97 and scouts think will add a MPH or 3 yet and could be a future ace, and it's easy to see why he was the "exciting" pick.

 

I liked Malone as an option too, but there are a lot more guys who through 100 mph than there are with a 15+ K/9 in the SEC.

 

I'm not sure Keuchel is a good comp because he is a low-K/9 pitcher. There are lots of strikeout pitchers with lower top velocity if their fastball plays. Throwing super hard is just one way of having an effective fastball.

[clancyphile]

It's a common misperception that fastball quality is directly correlated to fastball velocity, which is not the case.

 

I'm not even sure it is an issue of velocity as opposed to say, how well they use what they have.

 

Ethan Small uses what he has very well.

 

The TJ is a worry for me... but to me, this is an interesting hybrid of Brent Suter and Drew Rasmussen.

[Brew crew 92]

And what if he regains his fastball???

 

Exactly, up to 96 before the tj, he’ll get back there at some point moving forward I predict. I love the plus command from the left side, love the curve, deception, stats. Great pick!!

[JDBrewCrew]

Adam McCalvy

Verifed account

@AdamMcCalvy

6s6 seconds ago

Scouting director Tod Johnson: “He’s a consummate pitcher. He throws a ton of strikes, gets a ton of swings and misses. He’s not necessarily the hardest throwing guy, but he does have velocity in there when he needs it."

 

Adam McCalvy

Verified account

@AdamMcCalvy

35s35 seconds ago

More Tod Johnson: "He’s just been really successful in what is definitely the toughest conference in the country, especially for pitchers. ... He's pretty advanced as well, so we're hoping to have him move quickly through the system.” (Noted last part is up to Stearns/Flanagan)

[Jenkins5]

It seems like in 2019, pitchers are performing better than throwers (see Davies vs. Burnes). That might be part of Stearns’ thinking.

 

Sadly Burnes has always been a pitcher. Command four pitches and put any of 4 wherever he wanted in all counts. Why he was so dominant. He simply has lost his command a bit this year. Fastball in particular. Hopefully he gets back to power pitcher vs power thrower.

[Eye Black]

I think Small is a candidate to be one of the first players from this draft to appear in the majors.

 

[sarcasm]Maybe he’ll replace Alex Claudio this season.[/sarcasm]

[MrTPlush]

Im more impressed with his delivery he has as much control as he does. I know scouts don’t like the “back end” of his delivery’s, but it works for him. Usually if a guy pitches like that it would not be pleasant.

[3and2Fastball]

Dominating the SEC is not exactly easy. I like the pick. It's a roll of the dice picking this late...

[And That]

Small can probably pitch in AA right now.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The biggest question mark for a guy who varies his delivery as a way to deceive hitters is if he can command his pitches at a MLB caliber to get away with it - he might have a baffling delivery, but if he's trying to paint the corner and the quick pitch or delayed leg kick shenanigans wind up serving it in a MLB hitter's happy zone it doesn't really matter how it got there...it'll most likely get crushed. It will be interesting to see if the Brewers view his delivery as a strength and let him continue varying it, or if they see something projectable in his pitching stuff as he nears full recovery from a TJ surgery and he starts sitting consistently in the low 90's with movement and decent secondary stuff.

 

In a draft that is largely viewed as being pretty blah, it's tough to have a problem with picking a quality college pitcher who's been great in the SEC at the bottom of round 1. When the argument against that type of pick is they should have just drafted someone out of high school that throws harder and probably had to pay him overslot to sign at pick 28, I'd rather they go for a guy like Small with their current draft pool dilemma. They can get him signed easily, then take a look at what's left in the draft when their next pick comes up and perhaps make a reach pick in hopes of signing a guy overslot a bit later.

[SRB]

Haven't seen it mentioned yet but Ethan Small could be welcomed to the majors one day by fellow Mississippi State alum Brandon Woodruff.

[DHonks]

wonder if they went the college route due to smaller bonus pool, due to dealing away the Comp pick for Claudio and signing Grandal

 

I doubt it. The bonus pool stuff is majorly overblown. This draft isn’t likely to have anyone exciting that will drop to the 60s to go overslot on. I just don’t see that. They went with their top guy in my opinion. This kid isn’t that much of a reach and unlikely to save much in bonus pool money.

 

pretty sure that's incorrect. The draft pool is important for many reasons:

-gives budget that a team can spend on top 10 round picks.

-determines the % overage that a team can spend on players....not a fixed amount, but a %. So the Dbacks can go FAR over their pool allotment, but the Brewers can go slightly above it

 

The Brewers should get Small for a decent amount under slot. The benefit is that instead of taking 4th year seniors deserving of 10-20th round picks frequently in rounds 3-10, we can take some players that ACTUALLY deserve to get picked there.

[harrydalton]

Initial reaction given the players available: Huh?!

 

Positives. A lefty with good size and dominant for one season at least in a college league. For Brewers, already had his first major arm surgery. Funky delivery creates deception. Has very good control of below average fastball and maybe a changeup.

 

Negatives. Apparently hasn't successfully developed a breaking ball or ability to control one.

 

Certainly draftable but sounds to me at best like a day two pick.

 

But I don't expect too many mistakes under Stearns and can only hope for the best.

[Jenkins5]

Ashby & Small in Wisconsin for June & at all star break up to Carolina! I’m really excited with the two high K rate lefties.

 

Again Brewers have been pretty effective with college arms as of late under Stearns front office. That include two from trades this year who are pitching well for us. Both are guys they wanted to draft. Zavolas & Hill.

 

I’m not a scout, I thought Jed Bradley was going to be a star but have far more confidence in our amateur scouting department than I did in Jack Z & Seid’s old departments.

[markedman5]

Initial reaction given the players available: Huh?!

 

Positives. A lefty with good size and dominant for one season at least in a college league. For Brewers, already had his first major arm surgery. Funky delivery creates deception. Has very good control of below average fastball and maybe a changeup.

 

Negatives. Apparently hasn't successfully developed a breaking ball or ability to control one.

 

Certainly draftable but sounds to me at best like a day two pick.

 

But I don't expect too many mistakes under Stearns and can only hope for the best.

 

Stearns doesn't run the draft........Tod Johnson and Montgomery are the decision makers iirc.

[trwi7]

Wendzel's mullet >>> Alex Claudio

[MadThinker88]

Initial reaction given the players available: Huh?!

 

Positives. A lefty with good size and dominant for one season at least in a college league. For Brewers, already had his first major arm surgery. Funky delivery creates deception. Has very good control of below average fastball and maybe a changeup.

 

Negatives. Apparently hasn't successfully developed a breaking ball or ability to control one.

 

Certainly draftable but sounds to me at best like a day two pick.

 

But I don't expect too many mistakes under Stearns and can only hope for the best.

 

I saw a handful of mock drafts having him go in the 2nd round...

I believe he could have been a reach/ safe pick to ensure signing at under-slot as part of a larger draft strategy...

[KeithStone53151]

I'm ok with the pick. I'm glad we targeted pitching. They've been big on guys with funky deliveries, this fits the bill. I'm personally less interested in the flamethrowing type aside from relievers. Everyone can throw mid 90s these days, I'm more intrigued by control and offspeed the last couple years than pure velocity. This is all just opinion of course. Here's hoping it pans out. I'm also hopeful he's able to regain a bit more of that velocity as he fully matures and distances himself from TJ.

[Eye Black]

I see Alex Wood as a comparable.

Well statistically Small was a better SEC pitcher than Wood.

[FVBrewerFan]

Plus change-up > Plus FB velo

 

I believe that's what they are realizing, and that's what this pick is about. So many pitchers these days induce drooling over fb velo. May not control it, or throw it without any movement, but hey, he can touch 96. That formula is outdated. As outdated as the sacrifice bunt.

 

Baseball is filled with FB/ slider pitchers. And we always read about how the slider is 55+. Ever notice how many guys actually have a great slider when they reach MLB? Not many. They become afraid to use it, and even more afraid of trying to really break off a good one. So they go back to the #1, and you're not getting MLB hitters out with one pitch.

 

No, you need a change or curve. Changing speeds drastically is what fools hitters. Small may never make it past A ball, but I bet this line of thinking led to the pick.