2019 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

[Eye Black]

BA’s write up on Ethan Small...

 

Ethan Small

Mississippi StateLHP

Notes:

Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 190 | B-T: L-L

Commit/Drafted: D-backs '18 (26)

Scouting Report: Small’s 2019 season was an excellent demonstration of how a pitcher can dramatically improve his draft stock by simply excelling week after week. When the season began, Small was seen as a potential fourth- to fifth-round pick as a durable and successful Southeastern Conference Friday starter with average stuff. The assessment of his pure stuff hasn’t changed all that much, but his control and command has ticked up and no one can deny the extremely impressive results. Small was second in Division I in strikeout rate (15 K/9) as of early May. A 26th-round pick of the D-Backs last year as a redshirt sophomore, Small has bounced back well from the Tommy John surgery that forced him to miss the entire 2017 season. This season, opposing hitters have struggled to see and connect with his 89-92 mph fastball. Velocity-wise, the pitch average at best. But his delivery hides the ball well, and because of its movement and deception, it earns above-average grades from some scouts. Small’s delivery is long in the back, but he repeats it consistently. Much like Mariners’ lefthander Yusei Kikuchi, Small will vary the amount of time he hangs on the rubber before exploding toward home plate, which also messes with hitters’ timing. At times, Small can dominate college hitters pitching primarily off his fastball simply because he has plus command and plus control. Small fills the zone consistently, and he mixes in an average sluvy curveball as well. Small’s changeup was a better pitch in 2018 than it has been in 2019, when it’s been a fringe-average offering in most outings. There is reason to believe it can improve, however, since he’s shown more conviction and feel for the pitch in the past. Small doesn’t have a true plus pitch and projects as a No. 5 starter, but his command, control and consistency will likely push him into the second or third round.

[markedman5]

[walleye]

Hoping for more then a pitcher who projects as a 5th stater .

[Never Outhustled]

wonder if they went the college route due to smaller bonus pool, due to dealing away the Comp pick for Claudio and signing Grandal

 

 

That was kinda what I was thinking. I wonder if they had a framework for a deal in place.

 

All I know is when the Brewers take a guy that everyone seems excited about, it'd been a bit of a bust in recent years, the guys who don't get praised as much by the pundits seem to end up having more success.

 

Should be big savings here, as Small is a 4th year junior.

[brooks_quichenick]

 

 

 

I like the pick, LHPs with funky deliveries are always good to have

[JimH5]

MLB Network guys are unimpressed.

 

I always want the Brewers to take high risk, high reward guys, and Small doesn't appear to be that.

[SRB]

Hmm, the last part of that scouting report is not promising...

 

"...giving him a high floor and a chance to be a No. 4 starter."

 

They all say that, except for like top 5 picks.

 

 

Re: the notion that Small is a "boring" pick:

 

83.0 IP, 1.84 ERA, 0.810 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9, 15.1 K/9!

 

Boring, ok.

[homer]

MLB draft is the biggest crapshoot there is. Don't take a prep arm early and....pretty much let 'er fly after that.

[walleye]

I’m a little concerned with a pitcher who at the college level has to use deception to be effective, not sure that will work in the majors with his arm speed.

[TigerUppercut]

And what if he regains his fastball???

[brewmann04]

I like his stats and hope he remains a starter

[JosephC]

Seems like his greatest asset might be his funky delivery. Sometimes that works against big league hitters...sometimes it doesn't. Doesn't really seem like round one talent after reading some of the scouting reports and listening to the talking heads on the MLB Network. Hopefully the Brewers made this pick because they see talent and upside...not because they see a guy who can move through the system quickly.

[MrTPlush]

I recall watching him a few times this year (watch a lot of SEC ball).

 

I would label Small’s ceiling as that pitcher who doesn’t have flashy stuff, but somehow consistently puts up a cool 3.50 ERA consistently. His college stats are sexy, but I’m not really convinced it translates that well. The “messing with timing” thing is legit, not sure how that will translate. Can’t say I am a Small expert though. I had to watch a few videos to refresh my memory of him this last year.

 

I prefer to see high ceiling guys with the first pick of the draft, but I don’t say “boring” in a bad way...just for my draft watching enjoyment that wasn’t very exciting.

[Eye Black]

I don’t know enough to have an definitive opinion on the matter, but I like the pick of Ethan Small. He is likely a fast mover through the system during the current window of contention, and we’re taking about an organization that has gotten countless serviceable innings out of Brent Suter. I like the odds for the guy to become an major league contributor.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Michael Cook

‏@cookiedabookie9

I'd rather have Small than Jensen

I love this tweet.

[trwi7]

wonder if they went the college route due to smaller bonus pool, due to dealing away the Comp pick for Claudio and signing Grandal

 

I doubt it. The bonus pool stuff is majorly overblown.

 

No it’s not. We have basically nothing to spend so taking a high school player that we might really like just might not be an option because we could be totally screwed if he doesn’t sign or changes his mind and demands much more than he previously indicated.

[wallus]

I see Alex Wood as a comparable.

[Never Outhustled]

Small is similar to a left handed Freddy Peralta. He gets that extension in his delivery so his fastball plays up. Like others have said, ridiculous K totals, much like the steal we picked last year, Ashby. Only difference is, this guy did it against the best competition.

[Eye Black]

I do think Michael Busch is going to become a good hitting prospect.

[LouisEly]

Many are advocating signing Dallas Keuchel, who averaged 90.2mph on his 4-seam fastball last year (89.5 and 89.3 the two years prior), as a free agent, but think that a college pitcher whose fastball range is 86-92 and was 2nd in all of college baseball in strikeouts and hits/9 is a boring/low-ceiling pick.

 

I don't think anyone will be upset if he turns into the next Dallas Keuchel.

[SRB]

It's a common misperception that fastball quality is directly correlated to fastball velocity, which is not the case.

[OnTheBlack]

Hmm, the last part of that scouting report is not promising...

 

"...giving him a high floor and a chance to be a No. 4 starter."

 

They all say that, except for like top 5 picks.

 

Re: the notion that Small is a "boring" pick:

 

83.0 IP, 1.84 ERA, 0.810 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9, 15.1 K/9!

 

Boring, ok.

 

 

FB-86-92.

 

I think that's pretty much the extent of where the idea comes from that he's boring.

 

But if he adds a few MPH on his fastball and sits closer to 92-96 with the way he hides it, his delivery, questionable secondary pitches. Sounds vaguely similar to a current Brewers who's been pretty important to our current success without starting for them.

 

I would have taken Malone just because he sounded like a guy with a higher upside, but you can't argue with those numbers in the SEC and a lefty who racks up strikeouts is exciting in and of itself.

[homer]

I see Alex Wood as a comparable.

 

I'd take a healthy Alex Wood

[brooks_quichenick]

I see Alex Wood as a comparable.

 

I thought the same thing just watching his delivery.

 

 

I like this aspect of his game too:

 

[Jenkins5]

Mike Fiers has shown how well a deceptive funky delivery can play at MLB level. He has always been considered a 4 or 5 but when on Brewers he was very effective and consistent. K’d 9 per 9innings with lower walk rate.

 

He should see Wisconsin this summer. Be fun to have Ashby & Small in same rotation