Trent Grisham

[JohnBriggs12]

I generally don't like the idea of making a younger player act as 4th OF and get inconsistent playing time. Generally an established vet handles that type of role better. I've heard that Gamel is by far the hardest working player in the clubhouse. It takes a high level of professionalism to keep yourself ready and prepared for inconsistent playing time...and young players are far less likely to be ready for that. My guess is Grisham waits around for an injury or gets traded for value, but hard to know how much a team will value a guy that's been mediocre for years but has been a monster for 2-3 months. I'd like to think scouting would give them the answer. Also we are getting to a point where this might just be who he is...hard for a subpar hitter to simply stay hot for over half a season like this...especially increasing levels. The AA/AAA filler types may get hot for a few weeks and hit sorta like Grisham currently, but then cool off and hit sub 200 for extended stretches.

 

We've seen examples in the major leagues recently where players have turned relatively mediocre careers into stardom rather suddenly, notably JD Martinez, and Justin Turner. Neither of those two were top 15 draft picks. If those two, and others can suddenly find something, it's not hard to conclude that a player with enough perceived talent to be drafted 15th out of high school, would suddenly learn enough about his swing at age 22 for his talent to blossom.

 

The Brewers never hesitated aggressively promoting Grisham even after he struggled. They must have known that eventually he'd produce to his talent level.

[TJseven7]

There seems to be very few people in the Aguilar camp at this time. I would like to see Braun at 1b for his final year with MKE with Gamel and Grisham splitting the 4th OF/LF starter role.

 

I'd temper my expectations but at the same time Grisham is putting up numbers no one else put up in AAA for us this year. I don't expect Hiura, and I don't expect a dud.

[HiAndTight]

I know he's not really valued as a Major League CF, but if he has a great finish to the year at AAA, is it possible that he gets a September call up and, if he seems like he can hold his own, maybe trade Ben Gamel over the offseason and let Grisham be the 4th OF? He'd maybe have to play CF once every couple of weeks barring major injury to Cain, I feel like we could stomach that if his bat holds up, and he'd be a good platoon mate for Braun and potentially could get his feet wet to maybe be the everyday guy in 2021.

 

Really hoping this year is for real with Grisham. Brewers have struggled (Hiura aside) in recent years to develop impact bats. Suddenly plucking a high-OBP power hitter with speed out of thin air would be quite the magic trick.

 

 

He certainly as much of a big league CF'er as Gamel.

 

I don't think 4th OF'er is the way to go. The plan/hope was probably for him to be ready to go in 2021, but he's obviously kinda forcing the issue early.

 

Although I'll be honest, I don't really understand what they're doing when it comes to the young talent that's been developed. They've kinda yanked most of them around quite a bit.

[IntentionalHBP]

2-2 2 HR to start the game tonight

[Greenleaf1]

I would be seriously bummed if we dealt Grisham at this point, but I've had that feeling before with Lewis Brinson so what do I know.

 

Grisham is outperforming even Hiura's stellar AAA performance this year:

 

Hiura: 243 PA, .329/.407/.681, 19 HR, 7/9 SB, 46 RBI, 44 R, 9.5 BB%, 26.3 K%, .389 BABIP

 

Grisham: 153 PA, .357/.454/.698, 11 HR, 6/7 SB, 27 RBI, 34 R, 15 BB%, 14.4 K%, .365 BABIP

 

This isn't even including Grisham's 2 more homers already tonight.

 

Obviously I'm not implying that Grisham deserves the same reputation as a hitter that Hiura has, but the more this "hot streak" continues the more I think we have to start taking it seriously.

 

Still so hard to believe that he remains only 22 years old. Trying not to get my hopes up too much.

[igor67]

I'm in favor of dealing pieces, but Grisham has really moved into don't deal territory for me. A potential big time bat to move into the line-up for years to come and easily keep the team with a strong competitive outlook for years is worth a ton.

[Jenkins5]

I’d hate to trade away Grisham! One thing he he does better than Hiura is he walks at an impressive clip every year & he is not K’ing much at all. Not sure he will maintain the Hiura hit tool he is showcasing right now but kid can hit. He read a lot Keston coming out of high school. He had best hit tool & was most advanced bat. He faced his struggles but his new approach has finally got him right. Even without the hitting he has been above average wRC+ since being drafted while being young at every stop. Now he is 22 & pounding on the MLB door!

 

To me, I think there is no trades we can make that will fix our pen & rotation enough to to make a real run again this year. Nor do we have the magic of a pitching guru in Johnson anymore to get the most out. If we are going to give up on Grisham before he is possibly Michael Brantley ( maybe better, maybe he will be nothing special) it has to be for a controllable arm we will have in future. His stock right now has so much helium right now. I could see Stearns striking when oven is hot but I’d prefer he doesn’t.

[shanedog19]

Can Ryan Braun fake an injury and get Grisham up to the big leagues? I mean this guy is starting to look like he could make a Hiura type impact on the club, maybe we can just outhit everyone the rest of the year?

[CheeseheadInQC]

If I calculated correctly, his OPS over his last four games is 2.194. That isn't even video game numbers anymore.

[TigerUppercut]

Serious question. I've been a follower of Brewer affiliate baseball for over 20 years and I don't ever remember a prospect ever being this hot over a 2+ month stretch. Am I missing someone?

[SRB]

Obviously I'm not implying that Grisham deserves the same reputation as a hitter that Hiura has, but the more this "hot streak" continues the more I think we have to start taking it seriously.

 

It is interesting though that both players were similarly hyped as draft prospects for their elite hitting ability. Grisham's development took a few wrong turns, but now here he is clobbering the ball while being actually a few months younger than Hiura. What if Grisham is just a late bloomer (as far as professional success goes) and he had gone to college instead? If that were the case the current prospect hype may be much closer between the two. Granted, Hiura also plays competent 2B.

[wildcat2237]

Serious question. I've been a follower of Brewer affiliate baseball for over 20 years and I don't ever remember a prospect ever being this hot over a 2+ month stretch. Am I missing someone?

 

Braun played 34 games in AAA in 2007. He batted .341 with a .418 OBP and 10 bombs. That was at age 23.

 

That is what is so special about what Grisham is doing. If he keeps this up he should be a top 25 prospect to start next year.

[monkeyman343434]

The thing about Grisham that I feel like is a very very positive note moving forward, is that he's always drawn walks his entire minors career. I feel like that really helps translate to the majors, especially now that he's showing the power to go with it - which isn't uncommon for someone to find their power stroke at age 22.

[ebmackenzie]

I'm in favor of dealing pieces, but Grisham has really moved into don't deal territory for me. A potential big time bat to move into the line-up for years to come and easily keep the team with a strong competitive outlook for years is worth a ton.

 

This is where I am...although with Braun's contract and the loyalty between Braun and MarkA mean that Trent only plays if Braun moves to 1B, I cannot see moving a walk heavy 22 year old who just found his power stroke/groove.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Well, if the Brewers were looking for Grisham to make a statement on the eve of the trading deadline, in the event he is being shopped today, mission accomplished.

 

I personally think he's staying put though.

[Lathund]

Grisham is an MLB-ready or extremely close to it prospect with some upside. And he really isn't blocked next year, spreading playing time between 4 OFs is still plenty of at bats to go around, especially in the NL. Braun, and to a lesser degree Cain, will need their off days. Perhaps some 1B for Braun too. Gamel has options. And then there's the extra roster spot next year.

 

With Grisham I'll take the same stance I took with Hiura, Peralta, Burnes, Woodruff and Hader (Well, and Lewis Brinson too to be fair... at least I'm consistent); If you're looking to compete over the next few years, and it's not a complete all-in for 1-2 years only to rebuild after, you generally don't trade guys with 6-7 years of team control who look likely to help you in just the window you're looking for. I don't believe much in trying to "sell high" as a strategy, at least not as the primary motivation for a trade. If you don't believe in a prospect, or that prospect is blocked, then yeah by all means try to sell high if selling was the likely outcome anyway. But it's not much of a strategy otherwise. It's a good way to miss out on breakout players, and it's not going to gain you much even when you're right in many cases. His trade value won't have risen as much as his performances have, even among teams who believed in him beforehand, so it's not really even selling high. To me, if you truly believe in a prospect who's close to contributing (i.e risk is lower), you keep him. If you trade him away, it's because you get a long-term true impact player like Yelich and Sale in recent years.

 

Braun has been like a 107 wRC+ hitter with average to below average defense in LF over the last three years. You don't have to fully buy into Grishams breakout to believe that he can at least match that. Which, starting in 2021, frees up 15-18m for other positions without weakening the team. That's why you develop prospects, even a league-average or low-end starter who's cheap for 4-5 seasons is valuable in that it saves you spending money on those positions and can put it to use on impact players. Prospects don't need to be stars to be worthwhile. Keeping Grisham is a very defensible move even for those who don't fully believe in what he's doing this year. Trading him is only really a good move if another team truly views him as one of the best hitting prospects around, and are willing to value him as such.

[1e Corbeau]

Serious question. I've been a follower of Brewer affiliate baseball for over 20 years and I don't ever remember a prospect ever being this hot over a 2+ month stretch. Am I missing someone?

 

Mat Gamel flirted with .400 and accumulated a good amount of SLG at AA for a large part of a season. That is one memorable performance at AA or above that is in this territory, IMO.

[SoCalBrewfan]

For eye-popping stats, I'll take LaVel Freeman in AA El Paso, .395/.467/.627, though El Paso in those days was as extreme a hitter's environment as can be...

[reillymcshane]

Grisham is just a fascinating subject.

 

Three years of meh production - and then boom, just raking. His AA production was more of what I envisioned he could be - hitting .260 with a bunch of walks, maybe 15 or so HRs. But he's obliterated those numbers at AAA.

 

As for the 'is it real' question, I'll trust the guys that know him best on this board - such as Toby - who have noted why he is having success. Makes me excited for his future in Milwaukee. I hope we don't deal him unless it's for a really good haul.

[Eye Black]

Grisham is just a fascinating subject.

 

Three years of meh production - and then boom, just raking. His AA production was more of what I envisioned he could be - hitting .260 with a bunch of walks, maybe 15 or so HRs. But he's obliterated those numbers at AAA.

 

As for the 'is it real' question, I'll trust the guys that know him best on this board - such as Toby - who have noted why he is having success. Makes me excited for his future in Milwaukee. I hope we don't deal him unless it's for a really good haul.

One interesting thing about his Double-A performance this season is his BABIP was pretty low (just .269) whereas at Triple-A it's been very high (.384). I know the MLB league average BABIP is generally right around .300, but I assume it is a little higher for Double-A and Triple-A. Maybe there are other reasons I'm not accounting for (like the Triple-A baseball), but it does seem as though at least some of the difference in his offense numbers between the two levels can be explained by batted ball luck (bad luck in AA and much better luck in AAA). I don't believe BABIP is completely luck driven, and considering his power surge and reduced K% this season there is obviously plenty to like about his offensive profile right now.

[Lathund]

A lot of (comparatively) high-altitude ballparks in the PCL, which helps BABIP. They're often bigger as well to compensate. And then there's this year's baseball. And BABIP in general in the minors is going to be higher due to worse defense, and (I think) less shifting. Overall a bunch of things that could explain the increased BABIP as he moved up, including a few more % worth of Linedrives. Generally a high HR/FB rate will drive up BABIP as well, since fly balls that don't go for HRs tend to be outs far more often than grounders or linedrives.

 

But BABIP is one of the slowest stats there is when it comes to stabilization rate, I recall it being 1200 PAs or so, though not sure if that was for pitchers or hitters. Regardless, he doesn't have enough PAs at either level to say anything conclusively even if it would seem he was, as you say, unlucky at AA and having some more luck in AAA.

[Greenleaf1]

A lot of (comparatively) high-altitude ballparks in the PCL, which helps BABIP. They're often bigger as well to compensate. And then there's this year's baseball. And BABIP in general in the minors is going to be higher due to worse defense, and (I think) less shifting. Overall a bunch of things that could explain the increased BABIP as he moved up, including a few more % worth of Linedrives. Generally a high HR/FB rate will drive up BABIP as well, since fly balls that don't go for HRs tend to be outs far more often than grounders or linedrives.

 

But BABIP is one of the slowest stats there is when it comes to stabilization rate, I recall it being 1200 PAs or so, though not sure if that was for pitchers or hitters. Regardless, he doesn't have enough PAs at either level to say anything conclusively even if it would seem he was, as you say, unlucky at AA and having some more luck in AAA.

 

 

Obviously his numbers are going to be lower in the Majors, but I believe someone said recently (maybe on Twitter or maybe here) that he's 3rd in the PCL in DRC+ and that was before the cycle.

 

There's still something to outperforming everyone else in the league, even if it's a hitter friendly league, and word was he was still crushing the ball at AA as well in a more pitcher friendly environment.

 

He hasn't sold out for power either.

 

It's really really hard to poke holes in his season. It really looks legit.

[PDCBalla]

He's not in the lineup for the Missions tonight.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

He's not in the lineup for the Missions tonight.

 

That seems really odd coming off of what he did last night. I mean I get that everyone needs rest, but you'd think you'd want to keep a hot bat in the lineup. Unless ...

[Greenleaf1]

A lot of (comparatively) high-altitude ballparks in the PCL, which helps BABIP. They're often bigger as well to compensate. And then there's this year's baseball. And BABIP in general in the minors is going to be higher due to worse defense, and (I think) less shifting. Overall a bunch of things that could explain the increased BABIP as he moved up, including a few more % worth of Linedrives. Generally a high HR/FB rate will drive up BABIP as well, since fly balls that don't go for HRs tend to be outs far more often than grounders or linedrives.

 

But BABIP is one of the slowest stats there is when it comes to stabilization rate, I recall it being 1200 PAs or so, though not sure if that was for pitchers or hitters. Regardless, he doesn't have enough PAs at either level to say anything conclusively even if it would seem he was, as you say, unlucky at AA and having some more luck in AAA.

 

 

Obviously his numbers are going to be lower in the Majors, but I believe someone said recently (maybe on Twitter or maybe here) that he's 3rd in the PCL in DRC+ and that was before the cycle.

 

There's still something to outperforming everyone else in the league, even if it's a hitter friendly league, and word was he was still crushing the ball at AA as well in a more pitcher friendly environment.

 

He hasn't sold out for power either.

 

It's really really hard to poke holes in his season. It really looks legit.

 

 

Make that #1, and not just in the PCL. All of AAA: