Dominic Smith as 1B of the future?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Why would the Mets trade a top prospect for us to take a one-year contract that is not even an overpay if Lowrie was a free agent again? Familia maybe, but Lowrie? Seems like wishful thinking.

 

I would take Lowrie's contract for nothing and bet on the upside.

 

Lowrie keeps on being mentioned because he was listed in the original article saying that the Mets are considering going that route. I agree that with only 1 year and $9 million left on his contract, it doesn't make a ton of sense. You could probably get him for practically nothing, but I doubt the Mets are going to add a valuable asset to get a team to take him of their hands. Familia and Cespedes could be a different story, though.

[LincolnDD]

I wonder if today's news about their sale will affect how they operate this off-season.

[JosephC]

I wonder if today's news about their sale will affect how they operate this off-season.

 

I'd guess that's a no. Majority owner will change, but that change won't occur until 2025. The Wilpon's still operate the team for the next few seasons.

[brewmann04]

I would think the Crew can get a quality Starter for Josh.

[LincolnDD]

I wonder if today's news about their sale will affect how they operate this off-season.

 

I'd guess that's a no. Majority owner will change, but that change won't occur until 2025. The Wilpon's still operate the team for the next few seasons.

 

Most reports suggest he'll start to gain significant influence shortly into that five-year window, especially as his ownership $take expands, which makes sense. Just wondering if he'll start to influence things immediately (e.g. don't attach a prospect just to move a bad contract).

[walleye]

So I take it I'm the only one here that would rather have Familia as part of this deal instead of Lowrie? I really like taking a 2 year gamble on Familia the more I look at it. Bad year last year but good relievers sometimes just have bad years. Will only be entering his age 30 season. Numbers from 2015-2018 may not be elite but are far better than just being good. Lifetime lefties have slashed .264/.352/.383/.735 off of him and righties have slashed .197/.282/.271/.552. Not a product of the Mets home park, career numbers on the road are a 2.62 ERA and .215/.303/.302/.605. Has allowed 23 home runs in 412 2/3 MLB innings pitched...even with the bad year this year he only gave up 7 home runs in 60 innings pitched.

 

I'm looking at the Brewers depth chart now, and assuming Knebel is not ready at the start of the season, let's figure out who the top 7th/8th inning candidates are? I'll take an everyday, starting bat over a relief pitcher 95+% of the time, I just question if Lowrie even has an "everyday" tag after the season he just went through. And really, back end of bullpen guys is a pretty significant need for this team because after Hader (and before Knebel gets back) there isn't much of any track record there.

 

If the Mets would throw 4 million into this (along with the 1 million trade bonus which I'm assuming they'd be willing to pick up without debate), then for me it's an easy decision to take Familia instead of Lowrie in this deal.

This. I much rather take a calculated risk on Familia when healthy this is a toot the bull pen guy...... you can never have enough quality BP arms if he’s healthy you would never get this type of arm for any were close to this price.

[Eye Black]

I wonder if today's news about their sale will affect how they operate this off-season.

 

I'd guess that's a no. Majority owner will change, but that change won't occur until 2025. The Wilpon's still operate the team for the next few seasons.

It’s hard to believe the Wilpons made it this long after having $500+ million invested with Bernie Madoff when he was busted. Then to make up for it having to reportedly borrow $430 million against the team and $450 million against SNY in addition to a $43 million annual payment on Citi Field. They were reportedly paying more than $100 million annually just to cover debts before paying down any principal. The change in ownership stake could be a game changer for the Mets.

 

Edit: Steven Cohen will obviously be a much more stable influence for the Mets.

 

**Moderator voice**...

 

[LouisEly]

So I take it I'm the only one here that would rather have Familia as part of this deal instead of Lowrie?

Depends on whether Lowrie can play 3B. If he can't, he has nowhere to play and is an expensive bench bat, and thus Familia might have more value. If he can play 3B, then that's two birds killed with one $10M stone.

 

Speaking of the Mets and bad contracts... what would the Brewers have to add, if anything, to get Smith and McNeil from the Mets if the Brewers agree to take Cespedes (and the $29M he is owed)? The Brewers have cleared a boatload of payroll... would you spend $30M to get Smith and McNeil?

[Eye Black]

The Brewers have cleared a boatload of payroll... would you spend $30M to get Smith and McNeil?

That’s a yes for me. Obviously it depends on how much talent you would also have to give up in return, but McNeil would have a transformative effect on the Brewers lineup, in my opinion.

[walleye]

So I take it I'm the only one here that would rather have Familia as part of this deal instead of Lowrie?

Depends on whether Lowrie can play 3B. If he can't, he has nowhere to play and is an expensive bench bat, and thus Familia might have more value. If he can play 3B, then that's two birds killed with one $10M stone.

 

Speaking of the Mets and bad contracts... what would the Brewers have to add, if anything, to get Smith and McNeil from the Mets if the Brewers agree to take Cespedes (and the $29M he is owed)? The Brewers have cleared a boatload of payroll... would you spend $30M to get Smith and McNeil?

I agree with one point on Lowrie I think Lowrie would need to be on a load management type deal similar to Braun to maximize his value .

[wntrtxn21]

So I take it I'm the only one here that would rather have Familia as part of this deal instead of Lowrie? I really like taking a 2 year gamble on Familia the more I look at it. Bad year last year but good relievers sometimes just have bad years. Will only be entering his age 30 season. Numbers from 2015-2018 may not be elite but are far better than just being good. Lifetime lefties have slashed .264/.352/.383/.735 off of him and righties have slashed .197/.282/.271/.552. Not a product of the Mets home park, career numbers on the road are a 2.62 ERA and .215/.303/.302/.605. Has allowed 23 home runs in 412 2/3 MLB innings pitched...even with the bad year this year he only gave up 7 home runs in 60 innings pitched.

 

I'm looking at the Brewers depth chart now, and assuming Knebel is not ready at the start of the season, let's figure out who the top 7th/8th inning candidates are? I'll take an everyday, starting bat over a relief pitcher 95+% of the time, I just question if Lowrie even has an "everyday" tag after the season he just went through. And really, back end of bullpen guys is a pretty significant need for this team because after Hader (and before Knebel gets back) there isn't much of any track record there.

 

If the Mets would throw 4 million into this (along with the 1 million trade bonus which I'm assuming they'd be willing to pick up without debate), then for me it's an easy decision to take Familia instead of Lowrie in this deal.

 

Familia wasn't bad this last year, he was horrendous. 5.70 ERA - 4.9 FIP - more hits than IPs - 1.75 WHIP and owed $24.5M over the next two years. Much, much more expensive than Lowrie and a disaster waiting to happen. Unless Lowrie is included, no deal.

[JosephC]

I wonder if today's news about their sale will affect how they operate this off-season.

 

I'd guess that's a no. Majority owner will change, but that change won't occur until 2025. The Wilpon's still operate the team for the next few seasons.

It’s hard to believe the Wilpons made it this long after having $500+ million invested with Bernie Madoff when he was busted. Then to make up for it having to reportedly borrow $430 million against the team and $450 million against SNY in addition to a $43 million annual payment on Citi Field. They were reportedly paying more than $100 million annually just to cover debts before paying down any principal. The change in ownership stake could be a game changer for the Mets.

 

Edit: Steven Cohen will obviously be a much more stable influence for the Mets.

 

**Moderator voice**...

 

 

Not to derail a pretty good discussion, but IMO it's a real black eye for MLB if Steve Cohen becomes a majority owner.

[MrTPlush]

We definitely need to nab Smith now, I don't know what we win for worst defense in history...but we are well on our way.

[sveumrules]

 

Edit: Steven Cohen will obviously be a much more stable influence for the Mets.

 

**Moderator voice**...

 

 

Not to derail a pretty good discussion, but IMO it's a real black eye for MLB if Steve Cohen becomes a majority owner.

 

I'd imagine many MLB/pro sports franchise owners have similarly shady dealings in their past.

 

Maybe I'm just too cynical, but I believe the kind hearted honest billionaire is an exceedingly rare breed.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

We definitely need to nab Smith now, I don't know what we win for worst defense in history...but we are well on our way.

 

This is a team that, for two seasons in a row now, has stuck a lumbering third baseman at 2B, and then managed to replace one of those guys with a "legit" 2B that is significantly worse defensively during the season last year. They've made it work.

 

I'm not sure if you are just trying to temper the enthusiasm around here this morning, but cheer up

[Oxy]

I think there is too much risk for Familia's 2nd year on that contract. Lowrie is just one year. If he doesn't contribute he can be stashed on the DL or just released, whereas if Familia is still bad it's harder to do that while being on the hook for $11 in '21 as well. If they threw in another prospect that could change the equation. Lowrie is less commitment with an equal or greater chance to contribute.

 

Now if they want to throw in JD Davis instead of Lowrie with Familia as the bad contract coming over I'd be good with that. They just picked up Jake Marisnick, BTW, which makes Davis even more expendable.

[PeaveyFury]

We definitely need to nab Smith now, I don't know what we win for worst defense in history...but we are well on our way.

 

I'm unable to look right now, but I thought that Smith's defensive rankings were skewed because they stupidly played him in the OF, but that his 1B numbers were actually pretty good?

[KeithStone53151]

We definitely need to nab Smith now, I don't know what we win for worst defense in history...but we are well on our way.

 

I'm unable to look right now, but I thought that Smith's defensive rankings were skewed because they stupidly played him in the OF, but that his 1B numbers were actually pretty good?

 

Smith has -7 DRS over 600ish career mlb innings at 1b. Most of the negative was his rookie year, he's improved over the last 2 years and was a slightly above average defender at 1b in 2019 by every metric.

[LincolnDD]

Now if they want to throw in JD Davis instead of Lowrie with Familia as the bad contract coming over I'd be good with that. They just picked up Jake Marisnick, BTW, which makes Davis even more expendable.

 

I think the Marisnick deal makes it more likely they keep Davis. Conforto will be in RF everyday, Davis/Marisnick/Nimmo will rotate in the other two spots.

[PeaveyFury]

Now if they want to throw in JD Davis instead of Lowrie with Familia as the bad contract coming over I'd be good with that. They just picked up Jake Marisnick, BTW, which makes Davis even more expendable.

 

I think the Marisnick deal makes it more likely they keep Davis. Conforto will be in RF everyday, Davis/Marisnick/Nimmo will rotate in the other two spots.

 

Certainly seems like Smith is incredibly redundant and blocked on the Mets roster. He's such a logical target for Milwaukee.

[KeithStone53151]

I think the Marisnick deal makes it more likely they keep Davis. Conforto will be in RF everyday, Davis/Marisnick/Nimmo will rotate in the other two spots.

 

Certainly seems like Smith is incredibly redundant and blocked on the Mets roster. He's such a logical target for Milwaukee.

 

Couldn't agree more. Stearns has already acquired 2 blocked players. Also there aren't a ton of teams out there that need 1b. He honestly might end up in AAA if they didn't trade him, which would obviously be crazy.

[Oxy]

They still have Cespedes under contract for another year as well. Obviously may

not be healthy, but if he is that's a lot of OFers.

[Devinep]

Now if they want to throw in JD Davis instead of Lowrie with Familia as the bad contract coming over I'd be good with that. They just picked up Jake Marisnick, BTW, which makes Davis even more expendable.

 

I think the Marisnick deal makes it more likely they keep Davis. Conforto will be in RF everyday, Davis/Marisnick/Nimmo will rotate in the other two spots.

 

Plus if Lowrie is healthier, he will get some 3B starts and McNeil will play some OF, blocking Dom Smith even more

[SRB]

Here's a question: which would be cheaper to acquire, three years of Trey Mancini or five years of Dominic Smith, and which would you rather have? I think Mancini would be significantly cheaper, and I also have significantly more confidence in Mancini hitting well.

[TURBO]

Here's a question: which would be cheaper to acquire, three years of Trey Mancini or five years of Dominic Smith, and which would you rather have? I think Mancini would be significantly cheaper, and I also have significantly more confidence in Mancini hitting well.

 

Same, Mancini all the way!